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INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

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2014 THESIS: GLOBALIZATION TRAP

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Understanding Abstraction & Synthesis
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HOUSTON, WE HAVE A 'FLOWS' PROBLEM!

The Taper Spigot is Now Too Tight

Published 03-01-14

According to global economist Richard Duncan, since 1952 every time Total US Real Credit Growth fell below 2%, the US has experienced a recession. This correlation has been marked on 9 separate occasions. We are now below 2% and as a consequence the Federal Reserve will soon have little choice but to make a course correction in the current "Taper" monetary policy.

$2.3 TRILLION IN TOTAL US Y-o-Y CREDIT GROWTH REQUIRED

Approximately $2.3 Trillion in total Y-o-Y credit growth is required. According to Richard Duncan's very detailed tracking at Macro Watch, the Fed will be between $500 and $1T short.

PROBLEM COMPOUNDING QUICKLY

There are a number of developments that have placed the Federal Reserve and its new Chair Janet Yellen in this awkward policy quandary.

Sub 3% global growth levels have traditionally been a reliable indicator of recessionary economic troubles in the US.  As 25% of the world economy, a US recession has historically been the catalyst for sub 3% world growth. Today with Emerging Markets being more than 50% of the global economy, the reverse may be a new contributing development.

SUB 3% WORLD GDP GROWTH

Another consequential development is falling foreign direct investment. FDI is now at unprecedented Bear Stearns and Lehman lows and getting worse fast!

DRAMATICALLY SLOWING US FOREIGN FLOWS

"Houston, We Have a Problem!"

CONCLUSION

The chart below, taken from a survey of 222 fund managers responsible for a collective $591 billion in assets under management conducted by BofA Merrill Lynch between Feb. 7 and Feb. 13, 2014, shows where investors think we are in the global economic cycle right now. We have overlapped it with our work and sense we are highly likely in the midst of a major inflection point.

Welcome Ms Yellen!

Like Greenspan and Bernanke when they assumed office, you will experience the most taunting challenges of your chairmanship very early in your tenure.

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Gordon T Long    
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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that you are encouraged to confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

© Copyright 2013 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or suggestions you receive from him.

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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