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LNG WARS: The Ukraine & Syrian Choke Points

The "Great Global Game"

Published 03-03-14

 

THE FINANCIAL MARKETS - Macro Answers

Regarding our oil and gas trading, here is the central Macro Driver$ / Trigger$ / Bia$ issue we are grappling with at Trigger$:

See TRIGGER$ for Daily and 60 Minute Charts for HPTZ targets

From 2008 to 2013 we can see the market contracting, or winding / spiralling in on itself.  This changed in 2013 when OIL started to expand.  Previous resistance has now become support, however there is potential for the market to oscillate back down to the lows of 2008 as it “spirals out”. Andrew J. D Long MFTA (Master of Technical Analysis - IFTA), Publisher, Trigger$

 

We see a major inflection point coming near term at our Macro Trigger$ Zone "E" (see chart above and table right). After a three year consolidation the question is which way it will break? The answer lies in the MACRO Analysis.

MACRO SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS

STRATEGIC MAPS OF UNDERSTANDING

The Russia economy is critically dependent on oil and gas exports to the EU. The finaically strapped Ukraine is likewise dependent but as recipient of "transit tolls". Protracted disruptions could have devastating impacts to both countries and to the EU. The situtation is quickly spiralling out of control.

LNG DISTRIBUTION CHOKE POINTS

Ukraine pipeline disruptions will give a strategic boost to the Saudi's Trans-Syria solution, which has been at the root of the orchestrated Syrian escalation of tensions and social unrest.

Political corruption problems in Turkey however are not helping. To us the KGB are as active in Turkey as the CIA appears to be in the western Ukraine.

F WILLIAM ENGDAHL - The Global Energy Game

We spent a lot of time in Q4 with F William Engdahl exploring the region and the Geo-Political forces behind the scenes. William had just returned from Russia at the time and the following two Macro Analytic tapes lay out a number of the central issues getting no coverage in the western media. We encourage you to review William's and John Rubino's findings below.

 

 

 

JOHN RUBINO - CURRENCY WARS & THE FAILING PETRODOLLAR STRATEGY

 

ABSTRACTION PROCESS WE ARE PRESENTLY ANALYSING

RESEARCH

GROUP

ABSTRACTION
SYNTHESIS

Click Links Below

 

   

Here's Why Ukraine Erupted Into Violence And Forced Its President To Flee
George Soros On Sustaining Ukraine's Breakthrough
Ukraine A Deep State Analysis Zero Hedge

 

STRATEGIC ISSUES

   

 

 

   

At U.N., Russia Defends Actions
Pro-Russian Protesters Storm Kharkiv City Administration Building; Russian Flags Hoisted Across East Ukraine
Putin To Use Military In Ukraine
Russia Escalates Crisis in Ukraine
Russia vs Ukraine- The Infographic
Russian Troops Encircle Base
The Invasion So Far Visual Summary of Russian Forces And Movements
The Invasion So Far- Visual Summary Of Russian Forces And Movements
Russia Fires First Retaliatory Salvo, May Limit Ukraine Food Imports
Russia declares Ukraine agreement a failure
More APCs And Helicopters As The Airspace Closes The Latest Developments From The Ukraine
Officers Of 76th Russian Shock Troops Division Operating In Ukraine
Putin Launches Military Drill In Western, Central Russia; Ruble Drops To Lowest Since 2009
Russia Angered At Ukraine Government Vote To Remove President After I Won't Resign Comments
Russia Awakes Accuses Ukraine's New Government Of Armed Mutiny, Says It Poses Real Threat To Our Interests, Citizens
Russian Lukoil Halts Oil Supplies To Ukraine Odessa Refinery
Russian Military Choppers Arrive In The Crimea
Russian soldiers take over key Crimean airports

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RUSSIAN RESPONSE

 

 

 

 

 

A RUSSIAN

MILITARY

'POSITIONING'

STRATEGY

THREAT

 

 

 

   

Moscow Seals Off Ukrainian Bases in Crimea
Armed men seize Crimea airport
Crimea Prime Minister Takes Control of Security Forces
Crimea tensions echo Georgia of 2008

CRIMEA

   

 

 

   

Kerry Promises Ukraine $1 Billion Bailout (Detroit, Not So Much)
John Kerry Slams Incredible Act of Aggression, NATO Says Russia Must Stop
Kerry Warns of Russia of Trade Freeze
Kerry Warns Of Costs for Russia
Ron Paul Leave Ukraine Alone
Obama Has Few Options on Ukraine
Obama To Deliver Statement On Ukraine At 445 PM - Live Stream
US Warns Russia Over Provocative Actions In Ukraine

 

 

US RESPONSE

 

 

LNG STRATEGY

Rubble Weakness

Saudi LNG thru Syria

 

 

   

Europe Lashes Out at Russia
EU Offers Conditional Aid For Ukraine's Catastrophic, Pre-Default Economic State
NATO Calls Ukraine Developments Dangerous And Irresponsible, Urges Russia Not To Escalate Tension
NATO Chief Russia Must Stop
Did IMF Just Win The War Of Ukraine Debt Annexation
West scrambles to find Ukraine rescue plan

 

EU, NATO & IMF RESPONSE

A DEBT &

FINANCING

"CARROT"

STRATEGY

 

 

 

   

Ukrainian Bank Sets Limits
Ukraine fuels fears of default contagion
Ukraine Imposes Capital Controls, Limits Foreign Currency Withdrawals

 

FINANCIAL FALL OUT

   

 

 

   

Ukraine 'On the Brink of Disaster'
Ukraine Acting President Calls Emergency Meeting Of Security Chiefs; Russia Threatens To Cut Off The Gas
Caption Contest- Ukraine on the Line
Ukraine Russia Offers Troops Citizenship
Ukraine's Acting President Puts All Armed Forces On Full Combat Alert
Ukraine Crisis News Summary
Ukraine Orders Full Military Mobilization, Acting PM Says Russian Actions Declaration Of War
Ukraine Puts Military on Full Alert
Ukraine Parliament Ousts President
Ukraine parliament votes to oust president Yanukovych’s
Uncertainty in Ukraine as president leaves Kiev
Deposed-Ukraine President Yanukovych’s Speaks At Press Conference - Live Webcast
Look What Was Found In Yanukovych's Compound
Ukraine Acting President Says Russia Has Invaded Ukraine, As 2000 Russian Troops, Military Jets Arrive
Ukraine Calls Russia's Bluff, Slashes Nat Gas Imports By 80%
UKRAINE MINISTER ACCUSES RUSSIA OF ARMED INVASION IN CRIMEA
Ukraine Seeks IMF Rescue as Gunmen Storm Crimea Assembly
Ukraine's President-In-Hiding Yanukovich Located In Russian Base In Sevastopol, Preparing To Depart For Russia
Ukraine President Flees Kiev After Coup D’état As Protesters Storm Presidential Palace, Plunder Gold; Army On Hold
EU Offers Conditional Aid For Ukraine's Catastrophic, Pre-Default Economic State
Ukraine Calls Russia's Bluff, Slashes Nat Gas Imports By 80% Zero Hedge
Ukraine President Flees Kiev After Coup D’état As Protesters Storm Presidential Palace, Plunder Gold; Army On Hold

 

 

 

 

 

 

 UKRAINE GOVERNMENT ACTIONS / RESPONSE

 

 

 

 

 

 

CIA ORCHESTRATED

POWER VACUUM

 

 

 

 

   

Meanwhile In Non-Pro-Europe Ukraine
The Eastern Ukrainians Are Revolting Zero Hedge

UKRAINE PUBLIC SENTIMENT

   

CONCLUSIONS

The outcome will not be determined Militarily.

The resolution will be determined Financially.

    1. FINANCIAL AID
    2. DEBT RELIEF
    3. WESTERN BANKING ASSISTANCE

Bloomberg Businessweek concludes:

The geopolitical struggle comes down to money. Russia pledged $15 billion in loans to pull Ukraine into its nascent Eurasian Union, but after paying out $3 billion it has put further funds on hold. On Feb. 26, Secretary of State John Kerry said the U.S. was organizing a stopgap $1 billion loan guarantee—far short of the $35 billion in aid Ukraine is seeking. The Institute of International Finance, which represents big banks, estimates that with no change in policy Ukraine would need $30 billion in foreign assistance this year alone. The IIF predicts that the International Monetary Fund will insist as a condition for aid that Ukraine cut natural gas subsidies to consumers and industry, and allow its currency, the hryvnia, to fall further, shrinking the trade deficit. The problem: Those measures will be so unpopular that they will jeopardize any new government.

ENERGY PRICING PRESSURES DUE TO A WEAKENING RUBBLE

Weekening Russian Rubble has Significant Impact to Energy Pricing Going Forward.

Since the start of 2014 the Russian Ruble has been for sale, and BofA's Macneil Curry warns, that trend will persist. With desk chatter that Russia's 2nd largest state owned bank VTB setting USDRUB exchange rate to 39.45 (a huge shift relative to Friday's close on MICEX was 36.05), trendlines are in peril. Via BofAML's Macneil Curry,

Zero Hedge reports:

European and U.S. leaders have threatened sanctions against Russia, creating risks that economic growth will stall, demand for the country’s assets will dry up and a selloff in the currency will deepen. "There is a risk of international backlash against Russia at a time when the economy faces an increasing need for foreign capital inflows... This uncertainty risks a further escalation in domestic capital outflow."

The Banks have been battered...

  • Sberbank, Russia’s biggest bank, drops 17%, loses most since 2008
  • VTB, Russia’s second-bigest lender, tumbles 20%
  • Bank St. Petersburg falls 16%
  • Bank Vozrozhdenie declines 10%
  • Nomos Bank slides 12%

MICEX is down 11% Monday March 3rd alone...

Ukraine market has been falling for some time:

Ukraine Capital Control Crunch: Largest Bank Limits Cash Withdrawals To $100 Daily Zero Hedge

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Gordon T Long    
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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that you are encouraged to confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

© Copyright 2013 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or suggestions you receive from him.

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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