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"Currency Wars "
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"EXTEND & PRETEND "
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"SULTANS OF SWAP"
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ACT I
Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

"EURO EXPERIMENT"
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EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?

"UR all PIGS from HELL

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Current Thesis Advisory:
"EXTEND & PRETEND"

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Published November 2009


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"INNOVATION"
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INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

"PRESERVE & PROTECT"
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PRESERVE & PROTECT:  The Jaws of Death

 

 

2014 SMII

 

STRATEGIC INVESTMENT INSIGHTS

2015 THESIS: FIDUCIARY FAILURE

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Understanding Abstraction & Synthesis
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US$

FLIGHT TO PERCEIVVED SAFETY

2014 THEMES TRIGGER$ CHARTS
US DOLLAR
     
03-28-15

SII

US

DOLLAR

03-21-15

SII

US

DOLLAR

03-21-15

SII

US

DOLLAR

03-14-15

SII

US

DOLLAR

03-07-15

SII

US

DOLLAR

02-28-15

SII

US DOLLAR

02-21-15

SII

US DOLLAR

02-21-15

SII

US DOLLAR

02-21-15

SII

US DOLLAR

02-21-15

SII

US DOLLAR

Is Energy's Dead Cat Bounce Over?

On an equal-weighted basis, the energy sector has still been the best performing sector in February. It is nearly 7% higher this month, however, it has been the worst performing sector so far this week (-1.5%).

MSCI World Index Performance By Sector

image

Only 14% of energy stocks are positive this year but shorter term momentum has improved. Unfortunately, it has improved to the point where momentum tends to stall out. 75% of energy stocks are now trading above its 50-day moving average. 80% tends to be an unsustainable level for very long. 


image


image


Longer term momentum still looks pretty weak. Only 19% of energy stocks are trading above its 100-day moving average and only 9% of stocks are trading above its 200-day moving average.


image


image


Lastly, only 6% of stocks have a 50-day moving average trading above its 200-day moving average. This series needs to turn higher before we would feel confident that the bearish trend in energy stocks has turned. In the chart below we chart this series against the six month returns of the MSCI Energy sector.


image

02-14-15 SII

 

Big Cyclical Bounce Last Week (Week of Feb 02) Led By Energy

We had a big bounce in cyclical sectors last week in the MSCI World Index. On an equal-weighted basis, the energy sector outperformed the MSCI World Index by over 6% last week. The second best performing sector was financials (+3.12%) and the the third best performing sector was materials (+2.78%). The bottom of the leader board is made up of counter-cyclical sectors. Utilities was the only sector that finished the week in the red (-1.96%), while consumer staples (+0.59%) and health care (+0.70%) rounded out the laggards. Year-to-date, health care remains the best performing sector (+4.08%) and energy (+0.36) has finally moved out of last place and into positive territory for the year. Utilities (-0.57%) has been the worst performing sector so far in 2015. 


MSCI World Index Performance By Sector

image

MSCI World Index Performance By Sector

image

The performance story in the emerging markets last week was similar, it just wasn't as extreme. Energy (+3.16%) was the best performing sector followed closely by materials (+3.14%). However, the third best performing sector was a counter-cyclical sector. Consumer staples ended the week 1.83% higher. The average stock in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index ended the week 1.02% higher. The worst performing sector last week was health care (-2.40%) followed by utilities (-2.15%). Year-to-date, information technology (+5.23%) is the best performing sector followed by energy (+4.18%) and consumer staples (+3.5%). Utilities is by far the worst performing sector in the emerging markets. It is down 5.27% so far this year while the second worst performing sector, financials, is only down 0.75%. 


MSCI Emerging Markets Index Performance By Sector

image

MSCI Emerging Markets Index Performance By Sector

image

 

02-14-15 SII  
01-26-15 THESIS

 

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

01-26-15 THESIS

 

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

01-26-15 THESIS

 

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

01-24-15 US DOLLAR

01-24-15 US DOLLAR

12-09-14 DRIVERS  
12-09-14 DRIVERS  
11-29-14 US$

11-22-14 US$

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