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The defining book for the current

Macro Economic Environment

Gordon T Long

RESEARCH ANALYTICS for the GLOBAL MACRO

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Developers of Chaos Theory

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Fibonacci series and spiral

Fibonacci - W.D. Gann

Elliott Wave - J. M. Hurst

 

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 A MUST READ FOR ANY UNDERSTANDING

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"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY

 


 

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EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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Eliott Wave

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

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W.D.Gann

Elliott Wave Principle

J.M Hurst

 

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Fibonacci Conditions

 

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OVER 1000 ARTICLES INDEXED

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SOVEREIGN DEBT PIIGS

EU BANKING CRISIS
BOND BUBBLE

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
BANKING CRISIS II
RISK REVERSAL

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

CREDIT CONTRACTION II

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
US FISCAL IMBALANCES
PENSION CRISIS
CHINA BUBBLE

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UNDERSTANDING A POLITICAL & CURRENCY CRISIS

 

 

 

 

 

 

THE DOLLAR MELTDOWN

DETERMINANTS

CURRENCIES CAPITAL FLOWS GLOBAL CURRENCY CRISIS CAPITAL MOBILITY CURRENCY CRISIS LESSONS

SEE THE TIPPING POINT BOOKSTORE:  Currency Crisis

 

EXTEND & PRETEND:  A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

FLOWCHART

 

Knowing the trend and destination has made all the difference.

THE PRECURSOR TO THIS THREE STAGE ACT

THE THREE FINAL STAGES - The Cycle of Deflation

CREDIT CREATION
Government Policy Focus
  • Sponsorship - Housing, Public Works Commercial Development etc
  • Tax Incentives - Special Subsidies
  • Legislation - Favorable Investment Environment
  • Accounting - Easy Standards
DEBT BUILD-UP
Payment Impact
  • Debt Payments as a percentage of personal income soars
Mal-Investment
  • Investments with questionable paybacks are made - based on increasing asset value expectations.
FINANCIAL CRISIS
Asset Prices Begin Falling
Delinquencies Soar
BANKING CRISIS
Defaults Soar
Foreclosures Soar
BANK NATIONALIZATION
Banks are Insolvent due to bad loans

END GAME

GOVERNMENT ASSUMES LIABILITIES
  • Resolution takes various forms - Nationalization often the fastest

COLLAPSING ECONOMY
Financial Cut Backs send shock waves through the economy
PUBLIC DEBT EXPLODES
Short Term Borrowing
  • Shorter end of the yield curve to reduce borrowing load
Foreign Currency Borrowing
  • Borrow in foreign denominated currency
  •    Now Exposed to falling future exchange rate
SOVEREIGN DEBT LEVELS
Fiscal Stimulus Policy Fails:
  • Repeated Stimulus Attempts fail.
  •  
Credit Rating Downgrades
  • CDS rates which are already very high, go parabolic
Sovereign Debt to Revenue Climbs
  • Debt to GDP Exceeds 100%
  • Death Spiral Begins
Borrowing Rates
  • Borrowing Rates double from previous levels
  • Budgets Deficits are now unmanageable
Sovereign Debt to Revenue - Exceeds 100%
SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS
Credit Rating Downgrades
Borrowing Rates Double

END GAME

BROKEN ECONOMIC SYSTEM
  • Failure of Public Policy

SOVEREIGN CRISIS
Austerity Budget Programs
Financial & Accounting Games
MONETIZATION
Central Banks Buy Government Debt
CURRENCY CRISIS
Pegged Currencies Collapse
Floating Currencies Plummet
INFLATION
Velocity of Money Accelerates on Worry
REGULATION & LEGISLATION Controls to address: Liquidity
Controls to address; Public Financial Safety
Controls to address: Abusive Usery
Controls to address: Capital Flight & Escape Stoppage

END GAME

GOVERNMENT CONTROLLED ECONOMY
  • Emergence of Statism

.

 

 

 

For further background read: EXTEND & PRETEND - Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up.

 

Sign Up for the next release in the EXTEND & PRETEND series: Commentary

 

The previous EXTEND & PRETEND article: EXTEND & PRETEND: The Flash Crash Omen

Gordon T Long         

Tipping Points

 

Mr. Long is a former senior group executive with IBM & Motorola, a principle in a high tech public start-up and founder of a private venture capital fund. He is presently involved in private equity placements internationally along with proprietary trading involving the development & application of Chaos Theory and Mandelbrot Generator algorithms.

 

Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, you are encouraged to confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

 

Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.