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| 05-21-10 |
EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks? |
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The
European Crisis is proving to be more of an unraveling than a contagion.
I have
long written that the European Monetary Union (EMU) constitution and Euro
currency should be viewed in the context of a risky bet versus a sound
regional monetary strategy. The odds of the EMU’s survival are presently
reflected in a plunging Euro, despite a historic and unprecedented
intervention. This indicates that the EMU’s existence in its current form
is now a bad bet.
The good
news is that this is becoming obvious and it suggests that the serious
governance flaws of the 17 year Euro Experiment may finally be addressed.
It took a crisis to see its first test which has been the generally
accepted view of when the euro experiment would prove its viability. The
established momentum of the EU since its inception and its broad
acceptance prove that its survival is presently a matter of European
preference with most Eurozone members feeling it an absolute necessity. We'd therefore expect to see the EU constitution reformed. What should
concern investors the most however is how the mechanics of what will be a
‘forced reform’ will unfold. The highly visible process will have profound
implications to the stability of global financial markets and to a very
tenuous global economic recovery.
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| 05-14-10
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EURO EXPERIMENT: EU Bullied into $1T Banking Bonanza
Like a chess game, the bankers called ‘checkmate’ against the EU
political leaders on Friday May 5th, 2010. Two days later in an urgently
called weekend meeting the EU finance ministers hurriedly announced the
biggest bailout in history.
Most people take more than two days to buy a car, but the frightened EU
officials were pressured into reacting before the Asian markets opened
Sunday evening. This is eerily the same scenario we saw on the eve of the
US $700B TARP ratification, the Bear Stearns takeover, Fannie /Freddie
Conservatorship, AIG Bailout etc. A coincidence – Yeh right!
How was this pressure applied, who has such power, who won and who lost?
As I explained in
EXTEND & PRETEND: Shifting Risk to the
Innocent it is
all part of the dynamic new market strategy of Regulatory Arbitrage. You
had better learn how the game is played or you will be toast. |
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| 02-18-10 |
8 Financial Fault
Lines Appear In the Euro Experiment!
Tremors were heard across
Europe and around the world last week. There was little mistaking the
clear fracturing sounds of the European Monetary Union.
Receiving less fanfare than the
political hyperbole of EU solidarity, was surfacing evidence of serious
fissures that exposed similar financial schemes which took the US to the
financial abyss.
Our research has identified eight fault lines now visible in the Euro
experiment. Each is serious. As a combination they have the potential to
be devastating. They are all now fully in play.
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| 02-16-10 |
"UR all PIGS
from HELL"
Whether you’re in Central Europe, such as Ukraine or
Romania, the Med countries such as Portugal,
Italy, Greece, Spain,
or from Hungary to the Baltic States of Estonia,
Latvia or Lithuania, you all have one
common problem ---The hell that is the Euro!
“Euro members
drew down their benefits in advance – ‘ex ante’ -- when they joined EMU
and enjoyed "very easy financing" for their current account deficits. They
cannot expect ‘ex post’ help if they get into trouble later. These are the
rules of the club” (1)
Jean-Claude
Trichet, President, European Central Bank
The Euro is still an experiment. Like any experiment it needs to
withstand the results of testing under stress conditions. The present
stresses within the PIGS have pushed the Euro and the viability of the EMU
onto the global stage with all the attention of “The Emperor has no
Clothes”!
Whether the Euro is your domestic currency; or you peg your currency to
the Euro; or you are significantly influenced economically by the Euro,
you are now infected by the possibility of contagion. |
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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and
does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion
only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as
recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or
any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his
statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own
credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a
qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory
agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment
decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your
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© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information
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Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or
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consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon
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