|
FUND
MANAGERS & ANALYSTS
Developers of Chaos Theory
& Mandelbrot
Generator
Algorithms
Fibonacci - W.D.
Gann
Elliott Wave - J. M.
Hurst
SPECIFICALLY
TAILORED
|
A
MUST READ FOR ANY UNDERSTANDING
of the current
GLOBAL MACRO ECONOMIC
ENVIRONMENT
FREE
INTRODUCTORY
MAILING
The Latest Quarterly Advisory
62 pages
EXTEND & PRETEND
Click page to view Index
Contact Us
Add Promo Code:
"Introduction"
in the Subject Heading
The Latest Monthly
MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY
12 pages
Click page for Front Page
Contact Us
Add Promo Code: "MMU"
in the Subject Heading
The
Elliott Wave Principle
Prechter & Neely Methods
FREE
INTRODUCTORY
MAILING
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
RESEARCH
W.D.Gann
Elliott Wave Principle
J.M Hurst
PROPRIETARY
Chaos Theory
Mandelbrot Generators
Fibonacci Conditions
Latest Boundary Condition
Analysis
Click chart to view
Contact Us
Add Promo Code: "Technical"
in the Subject Heading
FREE
INTRODUCTORY
ACCESS
FACEBOOK
DAILY TIPPING POINT ARTICLE POSTS
SAMPLE PAGE
Click page to view Index
Contact Us
Add Promo Code: "Facebook"
in the Subject Heading
CUSTOMIZE YOUR RESEARCH EFFORTS
TIPPING POINT
TAG ENGINE
Click page to view Index
Free Access to Our Tag Engine for detailed research behind our Tipping
Points.
OVER 1000 ARTICLES INDEXED
each with an
Executive Summary - Abstract
SAMPLE
Click page to view Index
Contact Us
Add Promo Code: "Tag
Engine"
in the Subject Heading
| |
|
LATEST PUBLICATIONS |
RSS
 |
COMMENTARY for all articles by
Gordon T Long
|
SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!
 As
horrific as the gulf environmental catastrophe is, an even more
intractable and cataclysmic disaster may be looming. The yet unknowable
costs associated with clean-up, litigation and compensation damages due
to arguably the world’s worst environmental tragedy, may be in the
process of triggering a credit event by British Petroleum (BP) that will
be equally devastating to global over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives. The
potential contagion may eventually show that Lehman Bros. and Bear
Stearns were simply early warning signals of the devastation lurking and
continuing to grow unchecked in the $615T OTC Derivatives market.
What is yet unknowable is what the reality is of BP’s off-balance sheet
obligations and leverage positions. How many Special Purpose Entities
(SPEs) is it operating? Remember, during the Enron debacle Andrew Fastow,
the Enron CFO, asserted in testimony nearly 10 years ago that GE had
2500 such entities already in existence. BP has even more physical
assets than Enron and GE. Furthermore, no one knows the true size of
BP’s OTC derivative contracts such as Interest Rate Swaps and Currency
Swaps. Only the major international banks have visibility to what the
collateral obligations associated with these instruments are, their
credit trigger events and who the counter parties are. They are
obviously not talking, but as I will explain, they are aggressively
repositioning trillions of dollars in global currency, swap, derivative,
options, debt and equity portfolios.
READ MORE |
|
EXTEND & PRETEND: A Matter of National Security
There
is something seriously wrong in America. We all sense it, but few in the
mainstream media are willing to touch it or can effectively articulate it
within the public’s sound-bite oriented attention span.
It isn’t just about the remnants of the financial crisis; it isn’t the
protracted jobs recession and slow recovery; it isn’t the trillions of
dollars in deficit spending; it isn’t the degree of rampant financial
malfeasants. It is something deeper which reaches into the soul of who we
are as a people and society. It will soon be the central theme to your
investment strategy and financial security.
On the surface it might appear we have lost our optimism about the future
and our confidence that America is still the ‘beacon on the hill’ that
countries around the world admire and look to for leadership. Though our
children mouth the platitudes taught by older generations, they ring
hollow in the hallways with video surveillance, motion detectors and metal
detectors when recited by them. The high minded ideals seem misplaced in
unemployment lines where they stand with freshly minted advanced degrees
in hand, huge education debts and little hope other than the faint
possibility of a non-paying internship position.
It isn’t that the American people have changed. Our government has
changed.
READ MORE
|
To Be added to the Extend & Pretend Mailing
List:
Contact Us
Add
Promo Code: "EXTEND & PRETEND"
in the
Subject Heading to be notified of each release
For
GOLD DECISION TREE -- ADD Promo Code; "TREE"
For
TIPPING POINT OVERLAY MAP - Add Promo Code "TP MAP"
|
|
READER ROADMAP
- 2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to
positioning COMMENTARY
|
|
|
1
|
SOVEREIGN DEBT PIIGS |
|
EU BANKING CRISIS |
|
BOND BUBBLE |
|
STATE &
LOCAL GOVERNMENT |
|
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
|
BANKING CRISIS II |
|
RISK REVERSAL |
|
|
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
|
CREDIT CONTRACTION II |
|
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE -
PHASE II |
|
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL
CRISIS PROGRAM |
|
US FISCAL IMBALANCES |
|
PENSION CRISIS |
|
CHINA BUBBLE |
|
|
TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE
Last Update:
07/06/2021 03:32 AM
|
|
RED ALERT |
AMBER ALERT |
ACTIVITY |
MONITOR |
|
Click to Enlarge
|
|
|
|
POSTS: WEEKEND 07-03/04-10
GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN
IRAN
ISRAEL
KOREA
Will Austerity Be The Catalyst For War
ZH
Margaret Thatcher, who came to power oddly enough on a
"mandate to smash inflation, smash the unions and downsize
government", saw her popularity immediately slide to 25% as people
realized the very real pain associated with austerity and a regime
fighting run away government. On very rare occasions, the people
of a country do end up making the decision to take on hardship,
instead of kicking the can down the road. Yet they promptly grow
to regret their decision. So what was it that saved the
government, and allowed the Conservatives a second term in which
to complete the painful austerity project?
The declaration
of war by Argentina's General Galtieri over the Falkland Islands.
The result was soaring popularity for the Iron Lady, and the rest
is history.
Looking forward, now that all of Europe is
gripped in austerity, and make no mistake - this very same
austerity is coming to the US on very short notice, and popularity
ratings for all political parties are crashing, has the political
G-8/20 elite been focused a little too much on the Falkland war?
Is war precisely the diversion that Europe and soon America hope
to use in order to deflect anger from policies such as
Schwarzenegger's imposition of minimum wage salaries yesterday?
And is there a Gallup or some other polling "unpopularity"
threshold that the G-20 is waiting for before letting all those
aircraft carriers parked next to the Persian Guld loose?
The Thatcher experience shows how fragile support for painful
economic policies can be even when the democratic mandate for
those polices has been won. Like the Canadian and Scandinavian
austerity experience in the 1990s, the painful programs adopted
succeeded as much by luck as by political bravery. And this is
what worries me. It's not that I'm ideologically wedded to one
side or the other, it's that the precedents just aren't
encouraging. The required austerity will be deeply painful and
politically risky. Policymakers won't make it happen, so the bond
market will make it happen instead. |
|
SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS |
EU's 'Opposite Twins' Clash Over Future
WSJ
GREECE
ITALY
SPAIN / PORTUGAL
FRANCE
GERMANY
Germany OKs Diluted 'Naked' Ban WSJ
UK
Gove puts brakes on school rebuilds FT
JAPAN
Japan Bonds Advance for Fourth Week on Concerns Global Growth Is
Slowing BL
CHINA
DUBAI WORLD
USA
US jobs data hint at flagging recovery
FT
Payrolls fall for first time this year
Figures confirm slowdown in labour market
FT
The ECRI Leading Indicator Collapses Even Further
BI
The Economic Cycle Research Institute 's leading economic
indicator continues to drop, energizing calls for a double
dip.
Zero Hedge:
We are just 2.3 points away from that critical -10
threshold on the ECRI WLI which at least historically, has
guaranteed a recession. Just the freefall itself is vertigo
inducing, and the number's release at 10:30 Eastern is what
pushed the market even further lower as bullish indicator
after indicator collapse.
Note though that the ECRI itself has openly disagreed to
past recession conclusions made about its declining indicator,
as made above. Apparently it's not so simple.
See their objection here
|
Visualizing Why The Future Of Europe's Financial System Hangs By A
Thread ZH
|
This highly informative (and very disturbing) graphic prepared
originally in 2009 by the
Guardian, makes it all too clear just why Europe is so
concerned about its banking sector, and if it isn't, why it most
certainly should be. While the top 5 banks in the US have roughly
$7 trillion in assets (all of which are largely undercapitalized,
as the little black circles show a bank's market cap, thus
demonstrating the gaping hole between assets and equity, and yes,
these are dated as they indicate the mkt caps as of early 2009,
but that is largely irrelevant for this exercise), just the top
five banks in France alone have nearly $1 trillion more in assets
than all of the US banks (and are even more undercapitalized). Add
to this the UK, Germany, Spain, Italy, Belgium, and the
Netherlands, all of which are intricately interconnected with one
bank's assets representing another bank's liabilities, in the
world's biggest circle jerk, and you can see why quite
literally the fate of the world depends on Europe containing the
fallout from the ongoing financial crisis.
Imagine for a second that these tens, if not hundreds, of
trillions in assets in European banking assets are marked to
market, even as the liabilities are completely fixed, thus
crushing trillions in equity value, and you can see just how
precarious the financial stability of the entire world is. One
little falling domino forcing a MTM scramble across the banking
sector will end Europe's financial system. The only amusing
consequence of this doomsday hypothesis is visualizing the
powerless and decentralized consortium of the ECB, BOE and SNB
attempting to stop an avalanche of a hundred trillion in busted
bank assets. One can see why Jean Claude Trichet is the world's
most nervous human being.
PS - for clarification, the underlying market cap data is
dated, but the held assets have not changed much since the chart's
creation.
|
Treasury Two-Year Yield Drops to Record Low on U.S. Jobs, China Growth
BL
|
STATE
& LOCAL GOVERNMENT/b> |
HUNGARY
DODD FRANK ACT
RATING AGENCIES
Early Adapters- Pensions Rein In Risk WSJ
|
RRESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II |
Foreclosed Homes Sell at 27% Discount as Supply Grows BL
|
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM/b>
|
|
PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS
|
Early Adapters- Pensions Rein In Risk WSJ
US jobs data hint at flagging recovery FT
Payrolls fall for first time this year
Figures confirm slowdown in labour market FT
Companies Are About To Spend $150 Billion Buying Back Shares Instead Of
Investing In Jobs Or Expansion BI
The Scariest Job Chart Ever Gets Uglier
The chart we've dubbed "The Scariest Job Chart Ever"
continues to be, well, scary, following today's
June Non-Farm Payrolls Report.
As you can see from the low line of the chart, put
together by
Calculated Risk, we're clearly not enjoying a v-shaped
ascent like we've seen during other jobs recoveries. And
what's more, if you look just at the dotted line, which is
based on private payrolls, it really looks like we've
stalled out.
|
The numbers:
- Non-farm payrolls fell 125K
- Unemployment is at 9.5%, down
from 9.7%
-
PRIVATE job creation was just over 80K, which
was weak.
- Average hourly earnings
actually slipped 0.1%.
Futures are actually ticking up modestly, a sign of how
much negativity had been expected.
The full data set can be found here.
See here for 12 charts on the overall state of the labor
market >
Context: The market is thirsty for a
good number here, following a very weak May report, and a
string of consistently mediocre economic reports since
then, including major stagnation in weekly claims.
A few headline numbers to look for:
- The market is looking for a
payrolls decline of about 100 to 110K owing to major
cutbacks in the Census.
- Deutsche bank expects Census
cuts to hit 230K, which means private payroll
GAINS need to be over 100K to
compensate.
- The unemployment rate is
expected to be around 9.8%, but this number has become
somewhat secondary and ignored, owing to fluctuations
that result from people moving from the discouraged
worker category to the actively seekers.
|
|
GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE |
OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE/b>
GOLD MANIPULATION
MARKET WARNINGS
Earnings downgrades pose risk to Footsie F
Indicators give investors cause
for concern
Biggs Sells Technology Stocks on Concern `Soft Patch' to Worsen
BL
| Concern governments around the world are curtailing stimulus
measures too soon spurred Barton Biggs to sell about half of his
stock investments this week. |
FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS
Hedge-Fund Lending Draws Scrutiny
INNOVATION
VIDEO TO WATCH
INTERESTING ARTICLES - GENERAL
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
|
If you feel comfortable being in the US dollar you would feel
comfortable living in Chernobyl selling Real Estate.
Jim Sinclalair
|
ZHHstrong> - Zero Hedge, BI - Business Insider,
WSJ - Wall Street Journal, BL -
Bloomberg, FT - Financial Times |
|
|
 |
BUY ANY BOOK/font>
GET 2 MONTH SUBSCRIPTION TO MONTHLY
MARKET COMMENTARY |
BOOKSTORE
PROMOTION DETAILS |
|
Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and
does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion
only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as
recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or
any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his
statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own
credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a
qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory
agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment
decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your
own before making important investment commitments.
© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information
herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he
does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements,
website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the
purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr.
Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in
securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr.
Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or
future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should
consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon
statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or
recommendation you receive from him.
|
|
TODAY'S NEWS
WEEKEND
07-03/04-10
JUNE
ARCHIVAL |
|
SOVEREIGN DEBT PIIGS |
|
EU BANKING CRISIS |
|
BOND BUBBLE |
|
STATE & LOCAL
GOVERNMENT |
|
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
|
BANKING CRISIS II |
|
RISK REVERSAL |
|
|
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
|
CREDIT CONTRACTION II |
|
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II |
|
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM |
|
US FISCAL IMBALANCES |
|
PENSION CRISIS |
|
CHINA BUBBLE |
|
|
CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT |
|
INTEREST PAYMENTS |
|
|
US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES |
|
JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL |
|
US RESERVE CURRENCY. |
|
GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE |
|
SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE |
|
FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS |
|
RETAIL SALES |
|
CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES |
|
US DOLLAR WEAKNESS |
|
GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP |
|
CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST |
|
ENTITLEMENT CRISIS |
|
IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT |
|
OIL PRICE PRESSURES |
|
FOOD PRICE PRESSURES |
|
US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS |
|
PANDEMIC |
|
US$ RESERVE CURRENCY |
|
TERRORIST EVENT |
|
NATURAL DISASTER |
READING
THE RIGHT BOOKS?
NO TIME?
WE HAVE IT ANALYZED
& INCLUDED IN OUR LATEST RESEARCH PAPERS!
Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's
Plunder! Mish
|
