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COMMENTARY for all articles by
Gordon T Long
SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead
SLIDE REFERENCE PAGE:
Shadow Banking
 The
news rocked the global gold market when an almost obscure line item in
the back of a 216 page document released by an equally obscure
organization was recently unearthed. Thrust into the unwanted glare of
the spotlight, the little publicized Bank of International Settlements
(BIS) is discovered to have accepted 349 metric tons of gold in a $14B
swap. Why? With whom? For what duration? How long has this been going
on? This raises many questions and as usual with all $617T of murky
unregulated swaps, we are given zero answers. It is none of our
business!
Considering the US taxpayer is bearing the burden of $13T in lending,
spending and guarantees for the financial crisis, and an additional $600B
of swaps from the US Federal Reserve to stem the European Sovereign Debt
crisis, some feel that more transparency is merited. It is particularly
disconcerting, since the crisis was a direct result of unsound banking
practices and possibly even felonious behavior. The arrogance and lack of
public accountability of the entire banking industry blatantly
demonstrates why gold manipulation, which came to the fore in recent CFTC
hearings, has been able to operate so effectively for so long. It operates
above the law or more specifically above sovereign law in the un-policed
off-shore, off-balance sheet zone of international waters.
Since President Richard Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971,
transparency regarding anything to do with gold sales, leasing, storage or
swaps is as tightly guarded by governments as the unaudited gold holdings
of Fort Knox. Before we delve into answering what this swap may be all
about and what it possibly means to gold investors, we need to start with
the most obvious question and one that few seem to ask. Who is this Bank
of International Settlements and who controls it?
READ MORE |
|
EXTEND & PRETEND: Stage I Comes
to an End!
The Dog Ate my Report Card
Both
came to an end at the same time: the administration’s policy to Extend &
Pretend has run out of time as has the patience of the US electorate
with the government’s Keynesian economic policy responses. Desperate
last gasp attempts are to be fully expected, but any chance of success
is rapidly diminishing.
Before we can identify what needs to be done, what the administration is
likely to do and how we can preserve and protect our wealth through it, we
need to first determine where we are going wrong. Surprisingly, no
one has assessed the results of the American Recovery & Reinvestment Act
2009 (ARRA) which was this administration’s cornerstone program to place
the US back on the post financial crisis road to recovery.
We can safely conclude either:
1-
The administration completely under estimated the
extent of the economic crisis, even though we were well into it when the
ARRA was introduced.
2-
The administration was unable to secure the
actually required stimulus amount which was likely four to five times that
approved.
3-
The administration failed to implement the program
in a timely manner.
4-
The administration failed to diagnose the problem
correctly and that in fact it is a structural problem versus a cyclical
and liquidity problem, as they still insist it to be.
I personally believe it is all four of the above.
READ MORE
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POSTS: MONDAY 07-26-10
GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN
IRAN
Turkey throws lifeline to Iran FT
ISRAEL
KOREA
Korea-U.S. Naval Drill Gets Underway
Chosun
SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS |
GREECE
SPAIN / PORTUGAL
FRANCE
GERMANY
Merkel Exports Recession Concern as Germans Sleep in Trade Boom
BL
ITALY
UK
Consumer pessimism rises after emergency Budget
Independent
JAPAN
CHINA
Is China at policy turning point?
MW
USA
Uncle Sam has worse woes than Greece
FT
“Wishing won’t fix America’s fiscal mess. The US is one foot away
from a deep and permanent economic grave.” |
Austerity can be postponed by a fiscal stimulus - but it can't be
avoided altogether
King
What lies ahead for the US economy? the global economy?
Fabius Maximus
Wolfgang MünchauEU bank stress tests miss the mark
FT
Germany accused of reneging on bank tests
FT
Failure to reveal full
sovereign risk details
Will The Record Plunge In Shadow Liabilities Impair Current
Account "Shadow" Deficit Funding And Guarantee A Double Dip
ZH
Last week's European stress test is by now, luckily, part of
propaganda history. Easily the most ludicrous finding of the
"test": all seven of Germany's largest Landesbanks, NordLB, WestLB
, LBBW, BayernLB, HSH, Landesbank Hessen Thueringen and Landesbank
Berlin, magically passed with flying colors. As the Landesbanks
are at the same level (or far worse) of capital deficiency,
courtesy of underwater and mismarked real estate assets
accumulated over decades of lax lending practices and still marked
at par, as are Spain's cajas (of which 5 were generously allowed
to fail, although with laughable tier 1 capital shortfalls of a
few hundred euros each), this finding alone is worth a few
chuckles, for those who actually care. We won't speculate on the
stress test any more - everyone knows it is a farce. Yet the role
of the Landesbanks in European, and especially American markets,
deserves a prominent discussion. And not just any market, but the
very shadow banking system which at last check was vastly bigger
than regular plain-vanilla commercial banking. As even the New
York Fed acknowledges in its recent paper "Shadow Banking", by
Zoltan Poszar, in which there is a whole section on the critical
Landesbank function in the shadow economy, "As major investors of
term structured credits “manufactured” in the U.S.,
European banks, and their shadow bank offshoots were an important
part of the “funding infrastructure” that financed the U.S.
current account deficit," the proper functioning of the
Landesbanks is crucial to maintaining a stable and efficient
market funding structure. This is actually extremely
important, as for years most economists and pundits have
considered only the non-shadow banking funding aspect of the
massive US current account deficit (a topic most critical now that
even the US is embarking on fiscal austerity, and the government
sector will be unable to further fund the multi-trillion
deleveraging ongoing in the private sector, thus pushing the topic
of the current account to the forefront as Goldman did recently).
Generically, everyone has always looked at China and Japan as
those parties
responsible for funding the US Current account deficit. Alas,
that is only (less than) half the truth. As the New York Fed
suggests, the shadow banking system is likely a more important
economic funding factor than even China and Japan combined when it
comes to the CA. Which is why the all time record decline
of over $1.3 trillion in shadow banking liabilities should be a
far greater warning sign than any month to month change in China's
UST purchasing patterns, than whether WestLB is "really" broke or
only "never never" so, and than the debate whether China
will decouple, float or just continue posturing vis-a-vis the
CNYUSD exchange rate. As everyone contemplates navels, a major
portion of liability funding is literally evaporating as shadow
banking implodes. Yet nobody bothers to discuss this most
important to the future of the US economy topic.
For those who have not read the Poszar seminal and must read
breakdown of the shadow banking system (an analysis we will
discuss much in the coming weeks), and which he defines as:
"financial intermediaries that conduct maturity, credit, and
liquidity transformation without access to central bank liquidity
or public sector credit guarantees", the salient section
discussing European bank importance, and especially that of the
Landesbanks, in the shadow banking system is as follows:
Some parts of the “internal” shadow banking sub-system
specialized in certain steps of the shadow credit
intermediation process. These included primarily undiversified
European banks, whose involvement in shadow credit
intermediation was limited to loan warehousing, ABS
warehousing and ABS intermediation, but not origination,
structuring, syndication and trading.
The
European banks’ involvement in shadow banking was dominated by
German Landesbanks (and their off-balance sheet shadow
banks—securities arbitrage conduits and SIVs), although banks
from all major European economies and Japan were active
investors. The prominence of European banks as
high-grade structured credit investors goes to the incentives
that their capital charge regime (Basel II) introduced for
holding AAA ABS, and especially AAA ABS CDOs. As major
investors of term structured credits “manufactured” in the
U.S., European banks, and their shadow bank offshoots
were an important part of the “funding infrastructure” that
financed the U.S. current account deficit.
Similar to [Financial Holding Companies'] credit
intermediation process, the maturity and credit transformation
performed through European banks’ ABS intermediation
activities were not adequately backstopped: First, while
European banks had access to the ECB for funding, they only
had access to euro funding, and not dollar funding. However,
given that ABS intermediation involved mainly U.S.
dollar-denominated assets, a euro-based lender of last resort
was only a part of a solution of funding problems, as borrowed
euro funds had to be swapped into dollars, which in turn
needed willing counterparties and a liquid FX swap market at
all times. As the crisis has shown, however, FX swap markets
can become illiquid and dysfunctional in times of systemic
stress. Second, similar to other shadow banks, the
liabilities of European banks' shadow banking activities were
not insured explicitly, only implicitly: some liabilities
issued by European shadow banks— namely, German
Landesbanks-affiliated SIVs and securities arbitrage
conduits—benefited from the implicit guarantee of German
federal states' insurance. European banks’ and other banks’
and nonbanks’ involvement in ABCP funded shadow credit
intermediation activities is listed in Exhibit 12.
Of course, none of this should come as a surprise to anyone who
has followed the Goldman Abacus scandal in depth: the primary dumb
money recepticle of all toxic ABS and CDO exposure was long ago
decided to be the German banks, which due to a regulatory
arbitrage deriving from Basel II exemptions, and for other various
reasons, discussed in the Fed paper, and on which we as well will
touch upon in the future, were eager to gobble up any and every
piece of structured debt biohazard to be kept on their "shadow"
SIVs. After all they are off balance sheet - why worry? Speaking
of, we wonder if Europe tested the tens of trillions in underwater
assets held by Landesbanks on off-balance sheet vehicles -
actually that is rhetorical.
But the issue here is much more nuanced. In essence, the
Landesbanks, due to their very explosive holdings, are the German
equivalent of our own bankrupt multi-trillion shadow bank
extraordinaire: the GSEs - Fannie and Freddie, which served as the
very basis for the creation of the entire US shadow banking system
which at last count was $15 trillion - around $3 trillion larger
than the non-shadow system (it is also likely hundreds of
trillions globally, although nobody will stick out their neck with
a near or even rough estimate). Just like our own GSEs warehouse
around $7 trillion in "shadow" loans - implicitly guaranteed, but
not "really" debt - just ask Larry Summers and Ben Bernanke, with
an implicit but not
explicit guarantee from the government, so
the Landesbanks are in precisely the same position. Yet
some could argue that the Landesbanks potentially have a far
greater impact on the US economy due to their marginal impact as
provider of current account deficit funding, than the
GSEs, whose recent function has been merely to house hundreds of
billions in securitized delinquent mortgage loans, and thus keep
mortgage rates low, preventing an all out collapse of the US
economy.
All of this must be kept in mind when considering that
according to the most recent Z.1, the collapse in the US shadow
economy in the quarter ended March 31, was unprecedented.
The decline in shadow banking liabilities (defined as the
total shares outstanding in money market mutual funds, the total
liabilities of GSEs, total pool securities in the GSE mortgage
pool, the total liabilities of ABS issuers, the total amount of
securities loaned by funding corporations, the total liabilities
of Repo markets, and total outstanding Open Market Paper: all of
these can be found in the Z.1) between December 2009 and
March 2010 amounted to $1.33 trillion! This was nowhere
near even remotely offset by the $250 billion increase in
liabilities of Commercial Banks. The full detail of the collapse
in the shadow banking system is presented in the charts below.
The real question one should be asking, instead of the
asinine debate over whether the Landesbanks are solvent or not
(for the immediate answer, look no further than our own GSEs), is
just how much of an impact on US current account funding will the
massive deleveraging that is occurring in Germany have?
And furthermore, if indeed German bank exposure via the shadow
banking system is comparable, if not much larger, at least on the
margin, to that of China and Japan, whose role in deficit funding
via the non-shadow economy is well understood and
extensively discussed, then what will the consequences of the
continuing collapse in shadow banking liabilities be for America
in the coming quarters and years? Because while the Fed may
pretend to reliquify the market one day at a time using money that
is stored at bank vaults, and never makes it into broad
circulation aside from being used to purchase Treasuries, barrels
of crude, and occasionally 3x+ beta stocks, the unwind that is
occurring in the shadow system is, paradoxically contrary
to its name, all too real, and orders of magnitude greater than
the reverse reliquification process. Case in point: from its peak
of $20.9 trillion in liabilities in Q1 2008, shadow banking has
lost $3.8 trillion in liabilities in just the past two years.
Indeed, over the same time period, liabilities of commercial banks
have increased by $2 trillion. Which means that the Fed has been
responsible for plugging the hole: curiously enough, the amount of
securities purchased as part of the non-Treasury portion of QE
amounts to roughly $1.7ish trillion. Merely a coincidence? In
other words, with commercial banks unwilling to ramp up lending
activity, and the shadow system vomiting risk each quarter,
with a stunning $1.3 trillion flowing out in Q1 alone,
should Q2 demonstrate a continued collapse in shadow
banking lending, then the Fed will have no option but to get
involved yet again, even if that means to merely plug the
differential between the shadow and non-shadow system, as the
inability to keep this necessary equality balanced would result in
a collapse in the US current account funding, which in turn would
kill the economy, absent yet another fiscal stimulus. In other
words, the Fed's monetary stimuli do to the shadow economy what
Obama's fiscal stimuli do to the plain vanilla backstopped deposit
lending. And the scary conclusion is both reflation attempts are
not only failing, but doing so at an accelerating pace.
Should the Q2 Flow of Funds report confirm another $1.3
trillion (or near) decline in shadow liabilities, it is pretty
much game over, for both the US economy, and, when one factors
the Fed's only logical response, for the US dollar.
Appendix:
1. Comparison of total Traditional and Shadow Banking
Liabilities since the 1960s. The inflection point was Q1 2008,
since which we have seen a whopping $3.8 trillion in liability
reduction.
2. A detailed overview of the components comprising the $17
trillion US shadow banking lending market (the recent
reclassification between GSE liabilities and GSE mortgage pool
securities has been netted out).

3. And the shocker: the sequential quarterly change in shadow
banking liabilities. The outlier is prominently noted.

Source: Z.1, Federal Flow of Funds Report
|
JPMorgan Shreds The Stress Tests, Says 54 Banks Should Have
Failed, And That Investors Will Lose Confidence BI
Here's One Reason Why The Stress Test Euphoria Isn't Lasting
BI
So in the relatively early going, European markets are
already giving a raspberry to Friday's stress test results.
After initially popping higher (following the lead of the US
post-results), they're sliding into slightly negative territory.
Naturally, the coming days will see a lot of stress-test
hole-poking.
We've already brought you JPMorgan's take. That firm thinks 54
banks should have failed, and that the total capital needs for the
system ought to have been MUCH higher.
Now Morgan Stanley is out with a note, which we'll bring you
more from today, but here's one interesting part about how weak
the economic assumptions were.
In particular, while it is understandable that the benchmark
scenario is somewhat more optimistic than ours for the
above-mentioned reasons, we think the general tone of some of the
country-specific GDP assumptions in the adverse scenario tends to
lean on the bright side, especially for 2010.
For example,
Greece’s adverse GDP scenario postulates a 4.6% contraction this
year – somewhat better than our base case of a contraction of 5%.
This is not to say that there is no upside whatsoever in Greece.
Rather, it is an observation that – in the context of a deepening
recession – there is perhaps scope to stress test some of the
countries currently under the market spotlight more aggressively.
The 2011 GDP assumptions are consistent with our view of core
countries outperforming the periphery, but a severe credit crunch
would perhaps depress the economies of both groups to a greater
extent.
Got that? The adverse scenario in Greece was still better than
MS' case.
The following chart details the various scenarios:
|
So Much For "Restoring" Confidence- Benchmark 3 Month Euribor
Wider Post Stress Test ZH
Desperate Cities Begin Giving Away Land, Taxing Non-Profits BI
HUNGARY
Financial Crisis Commission Threatens To Audit Goldman Sachs BI
DODD FRANK ACT
RATING AGENCIES
Anecdotal Evidence That Banks Are Hiding Depressed High End Real Estate
Reggie Middleton
Why are Banks Hiding High End Residential Real Estate?
Real Estate Channel
- Without the FTB tax credit, the housing market is
receiving artificial demand and price support from the FHA
loan guarantees and banks sitting on mortgages of homes once
valued at $300,000
- Banks in areas that were severely damaged by the downturn
in domestic real estate (Cook County, Illinois, Miami-Dade
County, Florida, Orange County, California) have significant
inventories of homes worth more than $300,000 that they will
not put on the market, even after foreclosures lasting more
than 2 years

According to Bruce Krasting over at Zero Hedge, the FHA is
“Officially Broke” anyway:
FHA – “We are Officially Broke” After perusing the data above,
one would wonder why…
(Link to FHA/FR)
SUMMARY: A recently issued independent actuarial study shows
that the Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund (MMIF) capital ratio
has fallen below its statutorily mandated threshold.
More Reggie Middleton on
Residential Real Estate:
As I Made Very Clear In March, US Housing Has a Way to Fall
Recent Mortgage Loss and Credit Performance Commentary
This is the public version of our quarterly review of Alt-A and
subprime mortgage performance sourced from the NY Fed and FDIC
data. All paying subscribers can access the entire document here:
4Q09 Alt-A and Subprime commentary (452.33 kB 2010-05-21
05:49:09).
|
RRESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II |
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM/font>
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PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS
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Why
CEOs aren't hiring
Samuelson
Scary
Unemployment Graph
GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE |
BP - British
Petroleum
SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!
------------
BP's Dudley Set to Succeed Hayward WSJ
![[dudley0725]](../public/resources/images/OB-JJ026_dudley_D_20100725114931.jpg)
BP's board is set to name managing director Bob Dudley
as the company's new chief executive if, as expected, the
board approves the negotiated departure of current chief
Tony Hayward, people familiar with the matter said. The
plan before the board would elevate Mr. Dudley to the CEO
spot on Oct. 1, allowing for a roughly two-month
transition from Mr. Hayward, according to someone familiar
with the plan. Mr. Hayward would stay on the board for the
rest of the year. As expected, he will discuss BP's
second-quarter results on Tuesday. |
|
OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE
The
Death of Paper Money
Pritchard
People’s willingness to hold money can change suddenly for a
"psychological and spontaneous reason"... |
Goldman threatened with audit FT
FCIC holds to demand for derivatives data
Permanent Link- It’s the End of the World As We Know It Phils Stock
World
How does one decrease the cost of labor in America? Well
1- first, you have to bust the unions. Check.
2- Then you have to create a pressing need for people to work
- perhaps give them easy access to credit and then get them to go
so deeply into debt that they will have to work until they die to
pay them off. Check.
3- It also helps if you push up the cost of living by
manipulating commodity prices. Check.
4- Then, take away people’s retirement savings. Check.
5- Lower interest rates to make savings futile and interest
income inadequate. Check.
6- And finally, threaten to take away the 12% a year that
people have been saving for retirement by labeling Social
Security an "entitlement"
program - as if it wasn’t money Americans worked their whole lives
to save and gave to the government in good faith.Check. |
FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS
MARKET WARNINGS
Betting on a Bubble, Bracing for a Fall
Hussman
If you exclude the bubble valuations of 1995-2007, the current
valuation of the S&P 500 is near the highest level ever observed
in history |
GOLD MANIPULATION
LBMA Closes Off Public Access To Key Bullion Bank Trading Data
ZH
VIDEO TO WATCH
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
ZH - Zero Hedge - Business Insider,
WSJ - Wall Street Journal, BL -
Bloomberg, FT - Financial Times |
|
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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and
does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion
only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as
recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or
any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his
statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own
credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a
qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory
agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment
decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your
own before making important investment commitments.
© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information
herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he
does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements,
website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the
purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr.
Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in
securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr.
Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or
future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should
consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon
statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or
recommendation you receive from him.
|
TODAY'S NEWS
MONDAY
07-26-10
JULY
ARCHIVAL |
SOVEREIGN DEBT PIIGS |
EU BANKING CRISIS |
BOND BUBBLE |
STATE & LOCAL
GOVERNMENT |
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
BANKING CRISIS II |
RISK REVERSAL |
|
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
CREDIT CONTRACTION II |
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II |
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM |
US FISCAL IMBALANCES |
PENSION CRISIS |
CHINA BUBBLE |
|
CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT |
INTEREST PAYMENTS |
|
US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES |
JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL |
US RESERVE CURRENCY. |
GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE |
SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE |
FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS |
RETAIL SALES |
CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES |
US DOLLAR WEAKNESS |
GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP |
CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST |
ENTITLEMENT CRISIS |
IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT |
OIL PRICE PRESSURES |
FOOD PRICE PRESSURES |
US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS |
PANDEMIC |
US$ RESERVE CURRENCY |
TERRORIST EVENT |
NATURAL DISASTER |
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Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's
Plunder! Mish
|