|
FUND
MANAGERS & ANALYSTS
Developers of Chaos Theory
& Mandelbrot
Generator
Algorithms
Fibonacci - W.D.
Gann
Elliott Wave - J. M.
Hurst
SPECIFICALLY
TAILORED
|
A
MUST READ FOR ANY UNDERSTANDING
of the current
GLOBAL MACRO ECONOMIC
ENVIRONMENT
FREE
INTRODUCTORY
MAILING
The Latest Quarterly Advisory
62 pages
EXTEND & PRETEND
Click page to view Index
Contact Us
Add Promo Code:
"Introduction"
in the Subject Heading
The Latest Monthly
MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY
12 pages
Click page for Front Page
Contact Us
Add Promo Code: "MMU"
in the Subject Heading
The
Elliott Wave Principle
Prechter & Neely Methods
FREE
INTRODUCTORY
MAILING
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
RESEARCH
W.D.Gann
Elliott Wave Principle
J.M Hurst
PROPRIETARY
Chaos Theory
Mandelbrot Generators
Fibonacci Conditions
Latest Boundary Condition
Analysis
Click chart to view
Contact Us
Add Promo Code: "Technical"
in the Subject Heading
FREE
INTRODUCTORY
ACCESS
FACEBOOK
DAILY TIPPING POINT ARTICLE POSTS
SAMPLE PAGE
Click page to view Index
Contact Us
Add Promo Code: "Facebook"
in the Subject Heading
CUSTOMIZE YOUR RESEARCH EFFORTS
TIPPING POINT
TAG ENGINE
Click page to view Index
Free Access to Our Tag Engine for detailed research behind our Tipping
Points.
OVER 1000 ARTICLES INDEXED
each with an
Executive Summary - Abstract
SAMPLE
Click page to view Index
Contact Us
Add Promo Code: "Tag
Engine"
in the Subject Heading
| |
|
LATEST PUBLICATIONS |
RSS
 |
COMMENTARY for all articles by
Gordon T Long
|
SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead
SLIDE REFERENCE PAGE:
Shadow Banking
  The
news rocked the global gold market when an almost obscure line item in
the back of a 216 page document released by an equally obscure
organization was recently unearthed. Thrust into the unwanted glare of
the spotlight, the little publicized Bank of International Settlements
(BIS) is discovered to have accepted 349 metric tons of gold in a $14B
swap. Why? With whom? For what duration? How long has this been going
on? This raises many questions and as usual with all $617T of murky
unregulated swaps, we are given zero answers. It is none of our
business!
Considering the US taxpayer is bearing the burden of $13T in lending,
spending and guarantees for the financial crisis, and an additional $600B
of swaps from the US Federal Reserve to stem the European Sovereign Debt
crisis, some feel that more transparency is merited. It is particularly
disconcerting, since the crisis was a direct result of unsound banking
practices and possibly even felonious behavior. The arrogance and lack of
public accountability of the entire banking industry blatantly
demonstrates why gold manipulation, which came to the fore in recent CFTC
hearings, has been able to operate so effectively for so long. It operates
above the law or more specifically above sovereign law in the un-policed
off-shore, off-balance sheet zone of international waters.
Since President Richard Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971,
transparency regarding anything to do with gold sales, leasing, storage or
swaps is as tightly guarded by governments as the unaudited gold holdings
of Fort Knox. Before we delve into answering what this swap may be all
about and what it possibly means to gold investors, we need to start with
the most obvious question and one that few seem to ask. Who is this Bank
of International Settlements and who controls it?
READ MORE |
|
EXTEND & PRETEND: Stage I Comes
to an End!
The Dog Ate my Report Card
Both
came to an end at the same time: the administration’s policy to Extend &
Pretend has run out of time as has the patience of the US electorate
with the government’s Keynesian economic policy responses. Desperate
last gasp attempts are to be fully expected, but any chance of success
is rapidly diminishing.
Before we can identify what needs to be done, what the administration is
likely to do and how we can preserve and protect our wealth through it, we
need to first determine where we are going wrong. Surprisingly, no
one has assessed the results of the American Recovery & Reinvestment Act
2009 (ARRA) which was this administration’s cornerstone program to place
the US back on the post financial crisis road to recovery.
We can safely conclude either:
1-
The administration completely under estimated the
extent of the economic crisis, even though we were well into it when the
ARRA was introduced.
2-
The administration was unable to secure the
actually required stimulus amount which was likely four to five times that
approved.
3-
The administration failed to implement the program
in a timely manner.
4-
The administration failed to diagnose the problem
correctly and that in fact it is a structural problem versus a cyclical
and liquidity problem, as they still insist it to be.
I personally believe it is all four of the above.
READ MORE
POPULAR ARTICLES:
SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!
EXTEND & PRETEND - Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up
EXTEND & PRETEND: A Guide to the Road Ahead |
READER ROADMAP
- 2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to
positioning COMMENTARY
|
|
|
1
|
SOVEREIGN DEBT PIIGS |
|
EU BANKING CRISIS |
|
BOND BUBBLE |
|
STATE &
LOCAL GOVERNMENT |
|
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
|
BANKING CRISIS II |
|
RISK REVERSAL |
|
|
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
|
CREDIT CONTRACTION II |
|
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE -
PHASE II |
|
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL
CRISIS PROGRAM |
|
US FISCAL IMBALANCES |
|
PENSION CRISIS |
|
CHINA BUBBLE |
|
|
TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE
Last Update:
08/08/2021 08:36 PM
|
|
RED ALERT |
AMBER ALERT |
ACTIVITY |
MONITOR |
|
Click to Enlarge
|
|
|
|
POSTS: WEEKEND 08-07-10
GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN
IRAN
Guest Post- The Enduring Middle East Strategic Framework Begins to
Emerge as Iran Surges, and the US Resiles ZH
| The lingering impact of August 3, 2010, clash on the
Israeli-Lebanese border lies in the greater context of, and wider
strategic dynamics in, the Middle East. These aspects were
highlighted by HizbAllah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in his
speech later that day. Overall, the issue dominating the overall
situation in the Middle East is the reaction by the local powers
to the emerging new grand strategic reality: namely, the demise of
the United States as the dominant regional power. This is a
dramatic reversal of a concentrated US policy of more than half a
century. |
ISRAEL
KOREA
|
SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS |
GREECE
SPAIN / PORTUGAL
FRANCE
GERMANY
German industrial production's surprise dip
MW
ITALY
UK
Unpalatable pricesCash-strapped public faces food inflation
FT
JAPAN
CHINA
U.S. levies steep duties on Chinese steel drill pipe
Reuters
USA
Consumers cut back on credit cards again in June
AP
FED
Consumers Still Chopping Up The Credit Cards, As June Revolving
Credit Falls Again BI
|
The process of cutting up credit cards continues.
The Fed is out with
June
consumer credit data and it shows that while total consumer
credit fell just .7%, revolving consumer credit shrank 6.5% on an
annualized basis. On a sequential basis, the decline went from
$831 billion to $826 billion. The total consumer credit
decline was $2419 billion to $2418.5 billion
|
Goldman Capitulates- Lowers GDP Forecast, Increases Unemployment
And Inflation Outlook, Sees Imminent QE "Lite"
| It's official: the double dip is here. Goldman's Jan Hatzius
just lowered his GDP forecast for 2011 from 2.5% to 1.9% (kiss
goodbye all those 93 EPS estimates on the S&P), increased his
unemployment forecast from 9.8% to 10.0%, boosted his inflation
expectation from 0.4% to 1.0%, and said that QE lite is now on the
table, as he expects that "the FOMC to announce that they will
reinvest the paydown of mortgage-backed securities in the bond
market at next Tuesday’s meeting." Look for all other sell-side
"strategists" (here's looking at you Neil Dutta) to lower their
economic outlook in kind, and the 2011 S&P consensus to decline
accordingly. |
A VERY TELLING CONSUMER SENTIMENT ANALYSIS
Big UK banks clock up £15bn profits
FT
Banks’ reports speak volumes if not the whole story
FT
What More Could The Fed Do?
BMO
Only the Federal Reserve can jump-start the recovery at this stage
Inde
Weak Hiring Intensifies Debate on Possible Fed Easing
BL
Gross Says Fed Won't Raise Rates for 2 to 3 Years
BL
Exotic
Deals Put Denver Schools Deeper in Debt
NYT
HUNGARY
BIS:
it's the implicit taxpayer guarantee that drives banks to get bigger
Telegraph
DODD FRANK ACT
Wall
Street's Big Win
Taibbi
Caveat
Emptor, Continued
NYT (Norris)
Senators Who Crafted Volcker Rule Welcome Goldman's Decision
BL
Two
weeks after it took effect, the Volcker rule is already sweeping Wall St.
F
Why
Can't Anyone Just Call It "the Volcker Rule"?
NYM
He's an old man! Let him have his rule.
Tim
Geithner Ignores Volcker Rule, Touts 'Financial Innovation'
HP
RATING AGENCIES
After Signs Of Improvement, Commercial Real Estate Prices Fall Sharply In
June BI
|
This is a new repeat sales index for commercial real estate.
Previously I've only been using the
Moodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) for
commercial real estate.
From CoStar:
CoStar
Commercial Repeat-Sales Indices, July 2010
The commercial real estate market’s pricing has been a
tale of two worlds with the largest metro markets attracting
significant institutional capital and forcing prices upward
over the first two quarters of 2010, while the broader market
has continued to soften.
This divergence of the two worlds may soon change as
we are now witnessing a pause and softening even
within the investment or institutional grade primary markets.
Over the past ten months we have seen the overall CCRSI
oscillate from positive to negative and back again, with
preliminary July figures very likely to be down for the
investment grade property markets. From May to June,
the overall CCRSI was down 7.78% with the investment
grade property declining by 4.83%, reversing previous positive
movement.
emphasis added
Click
on graph for larger image in new window.
This graph from CoStar shows the indexes for investment grade,
general commercial and a composite index. The investment grade
index had been increasing - but turned sharply lower in June.
On the number of transactions:
The CCRSI July report is based on data through the end of
June. In June, 665 sales pairs were recorded, up significantly
from May, during which 506 transactions occurred. Overall,
there has been an upward trend in pair volume going back to
2009. February 2009 appears to have been the low point in the
downturn in terms of pair volume, when 374 transactions were
recorded.
...
Distress is also a factor in the mix of
properties being traded. Since 2007, the ratio of distressed
sales to overall sales has gone from around 1% to above 23%
currently. Hospitality properties are seeing the highest
ratio, with 35% of all sales occurring being distressed.
Multifamily properties are seeing the next highest level of
distress at 28%, followed by office properties at 21%, retail
properties at 18%, and industrial properties at 17%.
|
|
RRESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II |
Housing Insanity
Atlantic
Morgan
Stanley Sees San Francisco Housing Double-Dip
Countercyclical Loan-to-Value Limits Can Help Prevent the Next Bubble
Pollock
|
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM/font>
|
|
PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS
|
The Problem with Pensions
Mauldin
Battle Looms Over Huge Costs of Public Pensions
NYT
Social Security and Medicare continue to face grave financial challenges
LAT CMS
|
“The long-run financial challenges facing Social Security and
those that remain for Medicare should be addressed soon.” |
Canada's Biggest MEPP in Dire Straits
ZH
| Canada’s biggest multi-employer pension
plan says thousands of members, with 130,000 active members, could
soon face future benefit cuts of 15 to 50 per cent depending on
negotiations with companies. |
LABOR REPORT - NFP JULY
U.S.
loses 131,000 jobs
BL
BLS
|
Total employment fell a revised 221,000 in June, today’s
figures showed |
A look at US unemployment
Fabius Maximus
Lackluster Private Sector Job Growth Once Again
NTrust
Canada: 139,000 full-time jobs disappear
G&M
US is hit by slow growth in jobs FT
| Losses put pressure on the Fed to take
action |
Real U-3 Unemployment Rate When Adjusted For Labor Force Participation-
Around 14% ZH
|
When it comes to pointless (and bullish) reversion to the mean
exercises,it seems nobody has a problem with saying stocks have to
go back to 1,500 just because that's where they were, and the
unemployment rate has to go back to 5% cause that's how we know
the Fed is the immaculate and flawless piece of art it is, and
always gets things under control to near-peak efficiency. Well,
here at Zero Hedge we (again) decided to take the reversion to the
mean approach and flip it, instead applying it to a deteriorating
indicator, the labor force participation rate. The first chart
below demonstrates the LFP rate, which a derivative of the chart
we presented earlier, has now plunged to the lowest level in over
25 years, or 64.6% (gotta go back to December 1984 for the first
time this was passed). So we decided to "normalize" the LFP by
keeping it at the peak achieved at the turn of millennium, or
December 1999, when it hit a peak of 67.1%. Now as everyone knows
the US population has been soaring since then, and with the cost
of living increasing ever more with each day, and as more and more
family members are forced to join the work pool, it makes sense
that in a normal economy, the LFP should continue rising instead
of declining. We thus kept it constant at the 67.1% level (instead
of doing the conservative thing and pushing it higher along the
trendline), and ran the unemployment numbers through, assuming
this part of the jobless equation was constant. To our surprise,
we found that the U-3 rate (not the U-6), which today was supposed
to be 9.5%, in fact turns out to be 13.0% as of July: an all time
record save for the 13.6% recorded in December 2009. And if
instead we use the trendline number of a 68.5% LFP rate, the
unemployment rate today would be 14.7%. In retrospect we
sympathize with Christina Romer's decision to get the hell out of
Dodge.
Reported and adjusted labor force participation rate:
Running these numbers through the actual unemplyment
calculation, reveals the following: while assuming a declining LFP
rate we obviously get the 9.5% unemployment rate, assuming a peak
67.1% LFP results in a 13.0% unemployment rate. And if the labor
force participation rate were to grow according to trendline, the
jobless rate in the US today would have been reported at 14.7%,
just about where the U-6 was reported, but based on an entirely
different methodology.
|
|
GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE |
OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE
The
New Push for a Global Currency
Mises
No
Wheat Shortage, but Prices May Rise
NYT
|
“This is still going to be the third-largest wheat crop in world
history, even with the Russian shortfall” |
When
Labor Is Capital: The Limits of Keynesian Policy
TheAmerican
The Backstory On How Christina Romer Wanted To Fix The Economy
BI
FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS
Humiliation- Bank Of America Plunges From Trading Perfection To Just 81%
Profitable Trading Days
MARKET WARNINGS
The
Return of the Animal Spirits
Kass
Don’t
Get Caught Up In Optimism
Stocks
Ignore Green Shoots' Turning Brown
Forsyth
Hulbert
Forgotten Indicators Are Flashing Danger: Economist
CNBC
McClellan Oscillator Is Positive
Swenlin
GOLD MANIPULATION
VIDEO TO WATCH
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
ZH - Zero Hedge - Business Insider,
WSJ - Wall Street Journal, BL -
Bloomberg, FT - Financial Times |
|
|
 |
BUY ANY BOOK
GET 2 MONTH SUBSCRIPTION TO MONTHLY
MARKET COMMENTARY |
BOOKSTORE
PROMOTION DETAILS |
|
Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and
does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion
only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as
recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or
any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his
statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own
credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a
qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory
agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment
decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your
own before making important investment commitments.
© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information
herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he
does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements,
website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the
purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr.
Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in
securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr.
Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or
future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should
consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon
statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or
recommendation you receive from him.
|
|
TODAY'S NEWS
WEEKEND
08-07-10
AUGUST
| S |
M |
T |
W |
T |
F |
S |
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
|
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
|
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
|
29 |
30 |
31 |
|
|
|
|
ARCHIVAL |
|
SOVEREIGN DEBT PIIGS |
|
EU BANKING CRISIS |
|
BOND BUBBLE |
|
STATE & LOCAL
GOVERNMENT |
|
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
|
BANKING CRISIS II |
|
RISK REVERSAL |
|
|
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
|
CREDIT CONTRACTION II |
|
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II |
|
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM |
|
US FISCAL IMBALANCES |
|
PENSION CRISIS |
|
CHINA BUBBLE |
|
|
CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT |
|
INTEREST PAYMENTS |
|
|
US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES |
|
JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL |
|
US RESERVE CURRENCY. |
|
GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE |
|
SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE |
|
FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS |
|
RETAIL SALES |
|
CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES |
|
US DOLLAR WEAKNESS |
|
GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP |
|
CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST |
|
ENTITLEMENT CRISIS |
|
IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT |
|
OIL PRICE PRESSURES |
|
FOOD PRICE PRESSURES |
|
US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS |
|
PANDEMIC |
|
US$ RESERVE CURRENCY |
|
TERRORIST EVENT |
|
NATURAL DISASTER |
READING
THE RIGHT BOOKS?
NO TIME?
WE HAVE IT ANALYZED
& INCLUDED IN OUR LATEST RESEARCH PAPERS!
Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's
Plunder! Mish
|
