|
FUND
MANAGERS & ANALYSTS
Developers of Chaos Theory
& Mandelbrot
Generator
Algorithms
Fibonacci - W.D.
Gann
Elliott Wave - J. M.
Hurst
SPECIFICALLY
TAILORED
|
A
MUST READ FOR ANY UNDERSTANDING
of the current
GLOBAL MACRO ECONOMIC
ENVIRONMENT
FREE
INTRODUCTORY
MAILING
The Latest Quarterly Advisory
62 pages
EXTEND & PRETEND
Click page to view Index
Contact Us
Add Promo Code:
"Introduction"
in the Subject Heading
The Latest Monthly
MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY
12 pages
Click page for Front Page
Contact Us
Add Promo Code: "MMU"
in the Subject Heading
The
Elliott Wave Principle
Prechter & Neely Methods
FREE
INTRODUCTORY
MAILING
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
RESEARCH
W.D.Gann
Elliott Wave Principle
J.M Hurst
PROPRIETARY
Chaos Theory
Mandelbrot Generators
Fibonacci Conditions
Latest Boundary Condition
Analysis
Click chart to view
Contact Us
Add Promo Code: "Technical"
in the Subject Heading
FREE
INTRODUCTORY
ACCESS
FACEBOOK
DAILY TIPPING POINT ARTICLE POSTS
SAMPLE PAGE
Click page to view Index
Contact Us
Add Promo Code: "Facebook"
in the Subject Heading
CUSTOMIZE YOUR RESEARCH EFFORTS
TIPPING POINT
TAG ENGINE
Click page to view Index
Free Access to Our Tag Engine for detailed research behind our Tipping
Points.
OVER 1000 ARTICLES INDEXED
each with an
Executive Summary - Abstract
SAMPLE
Click page to view Index
Contact Us
Add Promo Code: "Tag
Engine"
in the Subject Heading
| |
|
LATEST PUBLICATIONS |
RSS
 |
COMMENTARY for all articles by
Gordon T Long
|
SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead
SLIDE REFERENCE PAGE:
Shadow Banking
  The
news rocked the global gold market when an almost obscure line item in
the back of a 216 page document released by an equally obscure
organization was recently unearthed. Thrust into the unwanted glare of
the spotlight, the little publicized Bank of International Settlements
(BIS) is discovered to have accepted 349 metric tons of gold in a $14B
swap. Why? With whom? For what duration? How long has this been going
on? This raises many questions and as usual with all $617T of murky
unregulated swaps, we are given zero answers. It is none of our
business!
Considering the US taxpayer is bearing the burden of $13T in lending,
spending and guarantees for the financial crisis, and an additional $600B
of swaps from the US Federal Reserve to stem the European Sovereign Debt
crisis, some feel that more transparency is merited. It is particularly
disconcerting, since the crisis was a direct result of unsound banking
practices and possibly even felonious behavior. The arrogance and lack of
public accountability of the entire banking industry blatantly
demonstrates why gold manipulation, which came to the fore in recent CFTC
hearings, has been able to operate so effectively for so long. It operates
above the law or more specifically above sovereign law in the un-policed
off-shore, off-balance sheet zone of international waters.
Since President Richard Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971,
transparency regarding anything to do with gold sales, leasing, storage or
swaps is as tightly guarded by governments as the unaudited gold holdings
of Fort Knox. Before we delve into answering what this swap may be all
about and what it possibly means to gold investors, we need to start with
the most obvious question and one that few seem to ask. Who is this Bank
of International Settlements and who controls it?
READ MORE |
|
EXTEND & PRETEND: Stage I Comes
to an End!
The Dog Ate my Report Card
Both
came to an end at the same time: the administration’s policy to Extend &
Pretend has run out of time as has the patience of the US electorate
with the government’s Keynesian economic policy responses. Desperate
last gasp attempts are to be fully expected, but any chance of success
is rapidly diminishing.
Before we can identify what needs to be done, what the administration is
likely to do and how we can preserve and protect our wealth through it, we
need to first determine where we are going wrong. Surprisingly, no
one has assessed the results of the American Recovery & Reinvestment Act
2009 (ARRA) which was this administration’s cornerstone program to place
the US back on the post financial crisis road to recovery.
We can safely conclude either:
1-
The administration completely under estimated the
extent of the economic crisis, even though we were well into it when the
ARRA was introduced.
2-
The administration was unable to secure the
actually required stimulus amount which was likely four to five times that
approved.
3-
The administration failed to implement the program
in a timely manner.
4-
The administration failed to diagnose the problem
correctly and that in fact it is a structural problem versus a cyclical
and liquidity problem, as they still insist it to be.
I personally believe it is all four of the above.
READ MORE
POPULAR ARTICLES:
SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!
EXTEND & PRETEND - Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up
EXTEND & PRETEND: A Guide to the Road Ahead |
READER ROADMAP
- 2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to
positioning COMMENTARY
|
|
|
1
|
SOVEREIGN DEBT PIIGS |
|
EU BANKING CRISIS |
|
BOND BUBBLE |
|
STATE &
LOCAL GOVERNMENT |
|
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
|
BANKING CRISIS II |
|
RISK REVERSAL |
|
|
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
|
CREDIT CONTRACTION II |
|
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE -
PHASE II |
|
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL
CRISIS PROGRAM |
|
US FISCAL IMBALANCES |
|
PENSION CRISIS |
|
CHINA BUBBLE |
|
|
TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE
Last Update:
08/09/2021 09:01 AM
|
|
RED ALERT |
AMBER ALERT |
ACTIVITY |
MONITOR |
|
Click to Enlarge
|
|
|
|
POSTS: MONDAY 08-09-10
GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN
IRAN
ISRAEL
Netanyahu Tells Probe Israel Acted in Self Defense
BL
KOREA
North Korea Fires Artillery Shells Into Sea Close To South Korea Border -
Holds Fishing Boat With 7 On Board ZH
| Some interesting geopolitical news to start off the day from
Reuters: "North Korea fired artillery rounds into the sea off its
west coast on Monday, a South Korean military official said,
heightening tension on the divided peninsula. YTN cable news
channel reported dozens of rounds were fired into the North's
waters near the border with the South soon after a South Korean
naval exercise off the west coast officially ended at 5 p.m." This
follows earlier news that North Korea held a South Korean fishing
vessel with seven people on board, after it crossed into North
Korean waters. |
South Korean fishing vessel held by North: coast guard
Reuters
Is NK facing hyperinflation?
Korea Times
|
Last month, rice, their staple, and other foodstuff increased
about two times in prices on a month to month basis. |
|
SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS |
IMF SINGLE CURRENCY ROADMAP
http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/enhttp://www.gordontlong.com/2010/041310.pdf
IMF blueprint for a global currency – yes really
FT Alphaville
GREECE
SPAIN / PORTUGAL
FRANCE
GERMANY
ITALY
UK
DUBAI
Dubai Brokerages Shutter as Stock Trading Tumbles to 4-Year Low
BL
JAPAN
Japan's Debt Is So High, It Doesn't Even Fit On The Charts
BI
Let this be a reminder that the ongoing popularity of the
yen and JGB (Japanese Government Bonds) should throw a big fat
wrench into any notion that any simplistic ideas about the
size of a country's debt, and the strength of their national
financial instruments. A brief paper on global sovereign
debt crises by
Silvio Contessi at the St. Louis Fed (.pdf)
includes this lovely chart. As you can see, they had to
especially elongate the chart, just so they could fit Japan on
there.
|
|
The Japanese debt has been financing to a large extent by the
savings habits of Japanese consumer. This is changing in a major
fashion. How long before it reaches crisis proportions?
- GTL
|
CHINA
USA
The crisis of middle-class America FT
Weekend Reading - The Crisis of Middle-Class America
Phil's Stock World
|
"Nowadays in America,"
says the Times, "you have a
smaller chance of swapping your lower income bracket for a higher
one than in almost any other developed economy – even Britain on
some measures. To invert the classic Horatio Alger stories, in
today’s America if you are born in rags, you are likelier to stay
in rags than in almost any corner of old Europe. Combine
those two deep-seated trends with a third – steeply rising
inequality – and you get the slow-burning crisis of American
capitalism. It is one thing to suffer grinding income stagnation.
It is another to realise that you have a diminishing likelihood of
escaping it – particularly when the fortunate few living across
the proverbial tracks seem more pampered each time you catch a
glimpse."
|
| We definitely need to do more to encourage small business in
this country. (Cameron
Herold makes a great case here for teaching our children to be
entrepreneurs, but avoids the hot-button debate on
lemonade stands) 99.7% of the businesses in the US are "small," with
less than 500 workers yet, surprisingly, small
business makes up 97% of the US’s export volume.
Last year there were 672,200 new businesses started in the US but,
unfortunately, 595,600 closed down and 43,546 additional ones went
bankrupt - this "birth/death" ratio
for small businesses is a far bigger impact on the US job market
than anything that’s happening in Big Business. We need
government stimulus to get small business back in gear - the best
way to make America strong is to make sure we have a diversified
base of small business, who are nimble enough to pick up the slack
in the economy in troubled times. Unfortunately, with the
banks refusing to lend, what usually turns us around in a
recession is dead in the water and our Government refuses to help
as every bill aimed at aiding small businesses for the past 3
years has
been filibustered to death. |
A dated chart below, but the message is clear and likely worse!
Commodity spike queers the pitch for Bernanke's QE2
Pritchard
|
Don't be fooled: a food and oil price spike is not and cannot be
inflationary in those advanced industrial economies where the
credit system remains broken... |
Global bond yields set record lows
Forsyth (Complete via Google jump)
|
Whatever the FOMC's decision this week, it's a low-rate world
while risks tilt toward economic weakness and deflation.
|
Greenspan Calls for Repeal of All the Bush Tax Cuts
NYT
|
“Our choices right now are not between good and better; they’re
between bad and worse. The problem we now face is the most
extraordinary financial crisis that I have ever seen or read
about.” |
U.S. Economy Improving, More Stimulus Isn't the Answer, Rubin,
O'Neill Say
BL
Fed set to downgrade outlook for US
FT
Big new steps to boost growth are unlikely
U.S. Buyers Regain Majority of Treasuries as Savings Rate Rises
BL
States of distressRoots of US budget woes are not new
| So Mr Kuzniewski has been forced to wield the axe. District
201 pupils who go back to high school on August 23 will find 22
per cent fewer teachers and 44 per cent fewer teacher aides. They
will have five (longer) classes a day rather than six. They will
also need fewer credits to graduate.
Unfunded pensions are a central reason the state cannot pay its
bills to institutions such as high school district 201. Interest
payments on much of the money Illinois borrows to fund pension
contributions come out of its general fund – the same pool that
pays for elementary education, keeping the peace and fixing
potholes.
As the unfunded portion of the fund grows, so does the annual
payment Illinois is required to make – putting stress on the
general fund and crowding out other spending.
Using a rate of 3.6 per cent – what US Treasuries were yielding
in June – Prof Rauh recalculates Illinois’ pension hole at $145bn
– about $30,000 for every household in the state.
|
HUNGARY
DODD FRANK ACT
RATING AGENCIES
|
RRESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II |
Housing Policy’s Third Rail
NYT (Morgenson)
|
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM/font>
|
|
PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS
|
UPDATES TO
CHARTS IN MY ARTICLES
|
GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE |
OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE
What
the Great Recession Has Done to Family Life
NYT
Capitalism 4.0 by Anatole Kaletsky
Guardian
US to pay big sums for Wall St tip-offs
FT
Rewards set to trigger surge in informants
Drought doubles price of barley in six weeks FT
| Rise in vital feed grain prompts fears
for the costs of meat and poulty |
American Thinker: 1913 Was a Very Bad Year
| Since 1913, the federal tax code has been used as a primary
tool of leftist social engineering, in which the people have been
forced to fund a government they no longer recognize and no longer
support. The U.S. Congress has a mere 11% approval rating today,
and the executive branch is supported only by the 28% of citizens
who benefit personally from the robbing of fellow citizens. The
states are now fiscal dependents of the federal government, and
the federal government is a twenty-trillion-pound ape trampling
through the rose garden of American life. Nobody seems to have any
clue how to rein it all in. Further, thanks to the 17th Amendment,
also passed in 1913, the states no longer have representation in
Washington, D.C. Once again, what seemed like a simple sentence
and a good idea to some at the time has since been used by the
federal government to eliminate states' sovereignty and rights.
|
FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS
MARKET WARNINGS
Goldman Explains Why It Is "QE2 Or Bust" For Stocks Tomorrow
ZH
| Just in case you missed Goldman's economic team shift to
outright bearishness, here is Jan Hatzius presents several key
observations that other economists (particularly those of BofA)
have yet to grasp. And even as Goldman openly expects a
recommencement in debt monetization tomorrow to the tune of $1
trillion, Hatzius openly acknowledges that this decision could be
delayed... And such a decision would be a major mistake, as it is
already priced in: "Such a decision could prove to be a serious
mistake, because a significant part of the recent easing
in financial conditions is probably due to market expectations of
a more expansionary monetary policy. Indeed, if a
disappointment on Tuesday results in a significant renewed
tightening of conditions, the decision might ultimately hasten the
transition to further easing steps." In other words, it is pretty
much QE or bust for stocks. |
|
6. In addition, we are counting on
another push from monetary policy to ease financial conditions via
further another round of large-scale asset purchases and/or a more
forceful commitment to a long period of near-zero short-term
rates. If our growth, employment, and inflation forecasts
are on the mark—and in particular, if the unemployment rate rises
back to 10% as we expect—we are reasonably confident that Fed
officials will indeed decide to do significantly more.
7. So what will happen at Tuesday’s FOMC meeting? It’s a
close call, but we expect an announcement that the proceeds from
maturing or prepaid MBS will be reinvested in the bond market
(most likely Treasuries). In our view, the gradual
tightening of the policy stance that is implied by the current
policy of letting the balance sheet shrink is inconsistent with
what we expect will be a significant downward revision in the
forecasts of the FOMC as well as the Board staff since the last
meeting. We have little direct information about any
forecast changes, but some insights are available from public
documents and speeches by officials and staff at the San Francisco
Fed (arguably the most open part of the system in this regard).
On May 13—the last available date before the June 22-23 FOMC
meeting—the SF Fed expected real GDP growth of 3¾% in 2010 on a
Q4/Q4 basis. On July 8—the first available date after the
meeting—the forecast had fallen to 3.1%. And on July 28—the
most recent update—it had fallen further to 2½%. These
numbers require some interpretation since they are affected by a
changing picture of H1, and we have no information on any further
changes in the wake of the GDP, ISM, and employment data released
since July 28. But our interpretation is that the SF Fed has
probably revised down its view of H2 growth from about 3½%
(clearly above trend) at the June 22-23 FOMC meeting to 2%-2½%
(slightly below trend) at the upcoming meeting. If other
officials have made similar changes, this would probably be enough
to trigger a meaningful shift. And the most obvious
meaningful (but not yet radical) shift would be a decision to
reinvest MBS paydowns.
8. However, it is also very possible
that the committee will require more time for a shift. One
reason to think so was Chairman Bernanke’s speech last Tuesday.
This was before the employment data, but it was noteworthy that
the chairman sounded relatively upbeat, specifically on consumer
spending. Undoubtedly, Fed officials are also encouraged by
the recent, broad easing in financial conditions.
But while this might argue for a decision to do nothing much on
Tuesday, such a decision could prove to be a serious mistake,
because a significant part of the recent easing in financial
conditions is probably due to market expectations of a more
expansionary monetary policy. Indeed, if a disappointment on
Tuesday results in a significant renewed tightening of conditions,
the decision might ultimately hasten the transition to further
easing steps.
|
GOLD MANIPULATION
VIDEO TO WATCH
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
ZH - Zero Hedge - Business Insider,
WSJ - Wall Street Journal, BL -
Bloomberg, FT - Financial Times |
|
|
 |
BUY ANY BOOK
GET 2 MONTH SUBSCRIPTION TO MONTHLY
MARKET COMMENTARY |
BOOKSTORE
PROMOTION DETAILS |
|
Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and
does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion
only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as
recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or
any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his
statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own
credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a
qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory
agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment
decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your
own before making important investment commitments.
© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information
herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he
does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements,
website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the
purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr.
Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in
securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr.
Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or
future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should
consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon
statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or
recommendation you receive from him.
|
|
TODAY'S NEWS
MONDAY
08-09-10
AUGUST
| S |
M |
T |
W |
T |
F |
S |
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
|
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
|
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
|
29 |
30 |
31 |
|
|
|
|
ARCHIVAL |
|
SOVEREIGN DEBT PIIGS |
|
EU BANKING CRISIS |
|
BOND BUBBLE |
|
STATE & LOCAL
GOVERNMENT |
|
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
|
BANKING CRISIS II |
|
RISK REVERSAL |
|
|
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
|
CREDIT CONTRACTION II |
|
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II |
|
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM |
|
US FISCAL IMBALANCES |
|
PENSION CRISIS |
|
CHINA BUBBLE |
|
|
CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT |
|
INTEREST PAYMENTS |
|
|
US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES |
|
JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL |
|
US RESERVE CURRENCY. |
|
GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE |
|
SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE |
|
FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS |
|
RETAIL SALES |
|
CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES |
|
US DOLLAR WEAKNESS |
|
GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP |
|
CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST |
|
ENTITLEMENT CRISIS |
|
IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT |
|
OIL PRICE PRESSURES |
|
FOOD PRICE PRESSURES |
|
US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS |
|
PANDEMIC |
|
US$ RESERVE CURRENCY |
|
TERRORIST EVENT |
|
NATURAL DISASTER |
READING
THE RIGHT BOOKS?
NO TIME?
WE HAVE IT ANALYZED
& INCLUDED IN OUR LATEST RESEARCH PAPERS!
Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's
Plunder! Mish
|
