HUNGARY

 

BASEL III ET ANOTHER BIG "EXTEND & PRETEND" WIN FOR THE BANKS   US banks receive Basel III boost  FT Rewrite of rules could cut in half new capital required   The analysis by BarCap’s debt capital markets group estimates that the 35 largest US banks will have to come up with half as much new capital as had been expected following last month’s rewrite of proposed requirements by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Analysts at Nomura calculated earlier this month that the top 16 European banks would also gain a sizeable, though slightly smaller, benefit. The numbers are likely to revive complaints that the reforms have been softened too much in the face of lobbying by banks. The committee in July made significant changes to the definition of what banks could count toward highest-quality “tier one” equity capital and effectively trimmed the amount of liquid assets they would be required to keep on hand. The banks had argued – and some regulators agreed – that a tougher package could impede the still-patchy economic recovery by crimping new lending. Two separate studies released on Wednesday by the Basel Committee and the Financial Stability Board, however, concluded that tightened capital and liquidity rules would have only a modest impact on world economic growth patterns if they were phased in over time, as planned. A one percentage point increase in bank tangible equity capital – capital that cannot be withdrawn in the event of a crisis – would lead to a 0.2 per cent average decline in global output, the studies found. Commentators on both sides of the Atlantic see the July changes to the Basel proposals, commonly known as Basel III, as a big victory for lenders. BarCap, for example, estimates that the 35 largest US bank holding companies will need to come up with $115bn in new equity or retained earnings to bring the ratio of their equity tier one capital to risk-weighted assets – a key measure of financial strength – to 8 per cent under the revised rules. That is about half the $225bn in new capital the biggest US banks would have had to raise under a tougher draft of the rules circulated in December, said BarCap’s Tom McGuire, whose unit did the calculations. Similarly, Nomura analyst Jon Peace calculated that the top 16 European banks would need to raise €200bn ($257bn) to restore capital removed by the reforms, down from €300bn under the December rules. The difference comes from a series of compromises allowing banks to keep tax credits, mortgage servicing agreements and other assets in their calculation of their tier one capital. Should regulators decide in the autumn that banks need to meet a 6 per cent ratio rather than 8 per cent, the 35 US banks would need to raise just $8bn, BarCap said.   Banking reform- Suspense over  FT   Basel banking reforms  VIDEO   FT

Four U.S. banks face big losses on repurchases/strong> Reuters

DODD FRANK ACT

RATING AGENCIES

 

RISK REVERSAL

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

Key Leading Indicator Of Commercial Real Estate Shrinks As Market Is "Paralyzed" By Uncertainty  BI This index is a leading indicator for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. The Business Times reports that the American Institute of Architects’ Architecture Billings Index increased to 47.9 in July from 46 in June. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction. 'We continue to receive a mixed bag of feedback on the condition of the design market, from improving to flat to being paralysed by uncertainty,' said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker. This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index has remained below 50, indicating falling demand, since January 2008. Note: Nonresidential construction includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction. So there will probably be further declines in CRE investment into 2011.

RRESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

GENERAL INTEREST

Some stores finding deep discounts aren't enough AP

Dwindling mines spell hot times for copper  FT

With demand set to outstrip supply, prices can only move higher

Washington to enforce health reform  FT

Unlocking the language of structured securities  FT

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FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

MARKET WARNINGS

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GOLD MANIPULATION

VIDEO TO WATCH

 

Paul Craig Roberts: America is Truly being Destroyed by Design The Alex Jones Show 1/3 PART 1 Below   PART 2   PART 3

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