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COMMENTARY for all articles by
Gordon T Long
INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem
 I
gave President Barrack Obama six months to roll-out his doomed
Keynesian policies, twelve months to discover they were flawed and
eighteen months to realize that the solution to America’s problems
must lie within a different economic framework. I had hoped by the end
of twenty-four months to see new policies closer to an Austrian
economic philosophy emerge. I was wrong.
Though, even the Wall Street Journal recently featured an article on the
re-emergence of the Austrian School of Economic philosophy, it would
appear that President Obama’s administration still neither gets it, nor I
am afraid ever will.
Key defections by his leading economic advisors, talk of the need for QE
II and a Stimulus II, and a political collapse in public confidence
suggests a growing awareness that Keynesian policies are not working, as
many predicted they wouldn’t. Obama's exciting rhetoric of Hope and Change
has left myself and the majority of recent polled Americans disillusioned
and disappointed. What I see the administration failing to grasp is
twofold:
I-America has a Structural problem, not a cyclical business cycle problem.
Though the cyclical business cycle was greatly worsened by the financial
crisis, I would argue that the structural problem facing the US is
actually a contributor to what caused the financial crisis.
II- America has a Credit demand problem, not a Credit supply problem. It
isn’t that the banks won’t lend, but rather that few can any longer afford
or qualify (on any reasonably and historically sound basis) to borrow.
READ MORE
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PRESERVE & PROTECT: Mapping the Tipping Points
The
economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of
‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane
subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail
investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the
institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of
yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any
proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people
are apparently willing to pay any price. As a sailor it feels
like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches
and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew
mates are talking as everyone is checking preparations for any
eventuality. Are you prepared?
What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane?
Unlike sailors the financial markets do not have the forecasting
technology to protect it from such a possibility. Good sailors before
today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use
of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It
appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial
community.
Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly
looming on the horizon.
Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971 the
increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking.
It has grown unchecked and inevitably became unhinged from world
industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.
READ MORE
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READER ROADMAP
- 2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to
positioning COMMENTARY
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Last Update:
09/12/2021 05:48 AM
SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30
AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
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Osborne talks tough on cutting benefits |
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ECB tries to stabilise the cost of Irish borrowing |
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Ireland breaks up Anglo Irish as EMU debt jitters return |
Telegraph |
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Ireland Is 'Punished' for Honesty |
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Japan Plans to Seek Discussions With China on Bond Purchases |
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Nine States Did Not File Initial Claims Data Due To Labor Day, Hundreds
Of Thousands Of Estimates In Data "Beat" |
ZH |
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Visualizing The Propaganda "Error Term" Behind The Bureau Of Labor
Statistics |
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Deutsche lines up pre-Basel rights issue |
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Deutsche Bank Said to Weigh Share Sale to Raise as Much as
$11.4 Billion |
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The First To Defect Wins- Deutsche Bank Planning €9 Billion
Capital Raise |
ZH |
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Need for stable principal could keep stocks cheap vs bonds
for years |
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Drunken, Rowdy Bond Market Is About to Be Ill: Mark Gilbert |
Gilbert |
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Roach Says U.S. Action on Yuan Weakness May Spur China to
Sell Treasuries |
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$16 Billion 30 Year Auction Prices At 3.82%, 2.73 Bid To
Cover, Primary Dealer Take Down Surges |
ZH |
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Moody's: Bank writedowns at 2/3 of likely total |
AP |
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BASEL III |
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Basel should stand firm |
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Shake-up set to raise costs of borrowing |
FT |
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Fears for German banks under new rules |
FT |
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Bankers poised for Basel III accord |
FT |
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Germany's Push to Delay Basel Capital Requirements Meets
U.S. Opposition |
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Jobs and recovery in the Great Depression |
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BAE to shed about 1,000 jobs |
FT |
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China: Capital Spending Boom Ahead? |
BCAR |
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Geithner Says China Needs to Let Market Drive Up Yuan |
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Record Japan debt held |
Shanghai D |
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China trade surplus in surprise drop |
FT |
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Judging Obama, Geithner and Goolsbee |
Pimco |
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Falling Rates Aid Debtors, but Hamper Savers |
NYT |
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The "Ever-Expanding" Government Sector, Illustrated |
Econbrow. |
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Obama
Added More to National Debt... |
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REMAINING |
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OECD Says Slowdown `More Pronounced' Than Anticipated |
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Economists cut U.S. growth forecast again |
Reuters |
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Speculators Sweet on Sugar, Cotton |
WSJ |
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Coffee prices on the rise as futures hit 13-year high |
AP |
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BP OIL |
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CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY |
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Fed's Move to Buy Treasurys Posing Serious Risks: Mishkin |
CNBC |
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Goldman anticipates QE2 dollar weakness |
FT Alphav |
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What Should the Federal Reserve Do Next? |
WSJ |
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Fed Governor admits: We're useless |
BI |
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GENERAL INTEREST |
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FLASH
CRASH |
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Flash crash report: plunge still a mystery-sources |
Fox |
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What can be done to slow high-frequency trading |
FT |
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MARKET WARNINGS |
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Charting The Great Bear Market Fund Flow Vacuum |
ZH |
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No Volume- Don't Shut The Algos Just Yet |
ZH |
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P/E Expansion & Contraction |
Ritholtz |
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MARKET
& GOLD MANIPULATION |
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IMF Resumes Direct Gold Dumping, Sells 10 Tons Of The Shiny Metal To
Bangladesh |
ZH |
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VIDEO
TO WATCH |
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Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with
highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.
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1
1-SOVEREIGN DEBT |
2-EU BANKING CRISIS |
3-BOND BUBBLE |
4-STATE &
LOCAL GOVERNMENT |
5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
6-BANKING CRISIS II |
7-RISK REVERSAL |
|
8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE -
PHASE II |
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL
CRISIS PROGRAM |
11-PENSION CRISIS |
12-CHRONIC
UNEMPLOYMENT |
13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP
INSUR. |
14-CORPORATE
BANKRUPTCY |
|
TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE |
RED ALERT |
AMBER ALERT |
ACTIVITY |
MONITOR |
|

Click to Enlarge

|
09-10-10
1-
SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS |
Nine States Did Not File Initial Claims Data Due To Labor Day, Hundreds
Of Thousands Of Estimates In Data "Beat" ZH
The BLS has announced that as a result of the Labor
Day weekend, 9 states (among which the biggest one
California) did not report initial claims data to the bean
counters, so instead the government had to "estimate" what
the data would have been: yep, estimate, what the data was
in these nine states. From
Bloomberg: "For the latest reporting week,
nine states didn’t file claims data to the Labor
Department in Washington because of the Labor Day holiday
earlier this week, a department official told reporters.
California and Virginia estimated their figures and the
U.S. government estimated the other seven."
Official data is now made up on the fly. This US economic
data reporting has just entered the twilight zone. Also,
when the data is officially made up, it is not that
difficult to get data that is "better than expected." The
full list of states is: DC, Illinois, Idaho, Hawaii,
Oklahoma, Michigan, and Washington. California and
Virginia estimated themselves. |
Visualizing The Propaganda "Error Term" Behind The Bureau Of Labor
Statistics ZH
Yesteray's announcement by the BLS that it decided to
flat out estimate nearly a third of all initial jobless
claims (courtesy of several large outliers) due to a
"clerical holiday" which resulted in a major beat to
estimates, caught many offguard by just how tendentious
and manipulative the US Department of Truth can be. This
is nothing. To visualize just how ridiculous the
perpetual upward bias is at the Labor Bureau, we present a
chart demonstrating the weekly jobless claim revisions by
the BLS: in a nutshell, 90%+ of the time the
bureau has revised prior claims upward, meaning it
consistently strives to create an optimistic picture at
the moment, only to have it revised it to its true, uglier
state a week later when nobody cares. The
implication is that fraudulent (and we sure hope this is
inadvertent, although a 90% error rate definitely would
invite a criminal investigation into just who and how
stands to benefit from such an manipulative upward bias)
data reporting is responsible for a persistent upward bias
in data, and that fundamentals have been disconnected from
the "government's reality" for years, confirming that the
recent pathological breakdown in the market's relationship
with fundamentals is not a new development. For example:
today stocks would be flat to down if the BLS were to
report the initial claims as they really are. Instead,
here we are, almost 1% higher on nothing but soon to be
revised lies. In other news, the China-US data
distribution Joint Venture/Vassal State development is
progressing better than expected. |
|
Deutsche lines up pre-Basel rights issue
FT
Bid to boost capital ratio by up to €9bn
Deutsche Bank Said to Weigh Share Sale to Raise as Much as $11.4
Billion BL
The First To Defect Wins- Deutsche Bank Planning €9 Billion
Capital Raise ZH
Rumors circulating in the market that the biggest German bank,
the one whose assets are about as large as the GDP of its host
country, is considering a share sale of up to €9 billion. DB is
rumored to have approached banks about arranging a stock sale,
although the firm has still not decided to whether to pull the
trigger. This development is nothing less than a direct response
to Basel III which is expected to require European banks to shore
up tens if not hundreds of billions in new equity capital. And as
usual the first one loses the least. This only means that all the
ugly toxic waste accumulated under the rug in Europe's financial
institutions is about to emerge. |
More from
Bloomberg:
Deutsche Bank AG has approached investment banks to assess
their interest in managing a stock sale to raise as much as 9
billion euros ($11.4 billion), said three people with knowledge of
the discussions.
Germany’s biggest bank has yet to decide on the sale, said the
people, who declined to be identified because the plans are
confidential. The proceeds may be used to increase the bank’s
stake in
Deutsche Postbank AG and to meet rising regulatory capital
requirements, the people said.
Deutsche Bank has the option to increase its almost 30 percent
stake in Bonn-based Postbank, which currently has a market value
of 5.6 billion euros. Deutsche Bank Chief Risk Officer
Hugo Banziger said in an investor presentation in June that
the Frankfurt-based bank would only raise capital for
acquisitions.
Deutsche Bank spokesman
Ronald Weichert declined to comment today. Deutsche Postbank
AG Chief Executive Officer
Stefan Juette, speaking at a banking conference in Frankfurt
today, said he doesn’t know if or when Deutsche Bank may take over
the lender.
In the past four years, Deutsche Bank
acquired Berliner Bank AG, Nuremberg-based Norisbank AG and
the Postbank stake, as well as ABN Amro Holding NV’s
commercial-banking operations in the Netherlands and private
wealth manager Sal. Oppenheim Group.
Basel Rules
Whether Deutsche Bank proceeds with a share sale will depend on
the financing commitment it gets from different banks, one of the
people said. Companies planning to sell stock typically seek to
find securities firms to guarantee the offering, agreeing to buy
stock that investors don’t order. Five banks, including Deutsche
Bank, agreed to underwrite
National Bank of Greece SA’s 2.8 billion-euro rights offering
this week.
Proposed rules under consideration by the Basel Committee on
Banking Supervision may also lead banks to raise reserves.
Germany’s 10 biggest lenders, including Deutsche Bank and
Commerzbank AG, may need about 105 billion euros in fresh capital
because of new regulation, the Association of German Banks
estimated on Sept. 6.
The lenders would need to raise that sum to reach an estimated
10 percent Tier 1 capital ratio, a key measure of financial
strength, according to Dirk Jaeger, who is responsible for
regulatory topics at the group.
|
Need for stable principal could keep stocks cheap vs bonds for years
Forsyth
Drunken, Rowdy Bond Market Is About to Be Ill: Mark Gilbert Gilbert
Roach Says U.S. Action on Yuan Weakness May Spur China to Sell Treasuries
BL
$16 Billion 30 Year Auction Prices At 3.82%, 2.73 Bid To Cover, Primary
Dealer Take Down Surges ZH
Today's auction of $16 billion in
30 Year Bonds came more or less as expected, printing at a
near record low 3.82%, highest only compared to the 3.5-3.6%
yields achieved in February and March of 2009. The Bid To Cover
was 2.73, a decline from recent prints, yet the biggest surprise
was the surge in the Primary Dealer takedown, which at 55.6% was
the highest since October 2009. In essence the Primary Dealers
carried nearly 60% of the auction (and we all know that the PDs
are nothing but the Fed lite). The other surprise - direct bidders
represented just 8.3% of the take down: this was the lowest since
February, even as Indirects were responsible for just 36.1% of the
auction. This once again confirms that starving for yield
foreigners like the curve, but not so much to bet on inflation
staying low in 30 Years. |
4- STATE
& LOCAL GOVERNMENT |
5-
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
Moody's: Bank writedowns at 2/3 of likely total AP
The agency estimated that 68 percent of residential mortgage
losses have been taken, but only 49 percent of commercial real
estate losses. |
BASEL III
Basel should stand firm FT
Shake-up set to raise costs of borrowing FT
Fears for German banks under new rules FT
Bankers poised for Basel III accord FT
Germany's Push to Delay Basel Capital Requirements Meets U.S. Opposition
BL
8-
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II |
10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
|
11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS
|
Jobs and recovery in the Great Depression VOX
13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE |
14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES |
BAE to shed about 1,000 jobs FT
China: Capital Spending Boom Ahead? BCAR
Geithner Says China Needs to Let Market Drive Up Yuan BL
Record Japan debt held Shanghai Daily
China trade surplus in surprise drop FT
19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES |
Judging Obama, Geithner and Goolsbee El-Erian
Falling Rates Aid Debtors, but Hamper Savers NYT
The "Ever-Expanding" Government Sector, Illustrated Econbrowser
Obama
Added More to National Debt... WSJ
OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
OECD Says Slowdown `More Pronounced' Than Anticipated
BL
OECD
Economists cut U.S. growth forecast again Reuters
Speculators Sweet on Sugar, Cotton WSJ
Speculative investors, such as hedge funds, have helped lift
sugar futures past six-month highs and pushed cotton prices to
multiyear peaks. |
24-RETAIL SALES
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
Coffee prices on the rise as futures hit 13-year high AP
32-US STOCK
MARKET VALUATIONS
GENERAL INTEREST
FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS
Flash crash report: plunge still a mystery-sources Fox
What can be done to slow high-frequency trading FT
MARKET WARNINGS
Charting The Great Bear Market Fund Flow Vacuum ZH
Many skeptics enjoy pointing out that the fear and loathing
toward stocks as exhibited by the seemingly endless mutual funds
outflows, now in the 18th consecutive week, is nothing but a
contrarian play, and when the masses are stepping out is when the
smart money should invest. Under other circumstances we would
totally agree. However, in this case, we make the argument that it
is in fact these "contrarians" (with the assistance of the Fed,
the Primary Dealers, and the HFT scalpers) who have ramped the
market in advance of this move for many months now, anticipating
an inflow which never comes. In other words, the true contrarian
move is to fade the market here. Why? Because as the below chart
from ICI shows, stocks have experienced the biggest short-term
equity return upswing in history on the smallest
net amount of positive inflows also in history.
The argument would go that the entire upswing is nothing but an
engineered push on nothing but momentum, and QE, and that fair
values are far, far lower. Once GDP passes below zero, and once
S&P EPS forecasts are revised to +/- 60, as the double dip
unwinds, and applying an appropriate multiple of 10-12x, the
market will be far more credible, and will see far more inflows
when it is at 600-700. For now, however, nobody is foolish enough
to enter. And those buying on hopes that Joe Sixpack will finally
put in his two remaining cents in Amazon will continue to be
disappointed, entrusting their entire risk capital to the like of
the Federal Reserve, Goldman and Getco. |
No Volume- Don't Shut The Algos Just Yet ZH
The real reason why volume is so poor is that the market is
fixed, I just don't know anyone who is a clever investor out there
who thinks the market is fairly valued here and most buyers I talk
to are motivated by the thought that the Fed will keep printing
and debase the currency enough to make asset prices go up... talk
about an optimist point of view: the only buyers are cynical! |
P/E Expansion & Contraction Ritholtz
MARKET &
GOLD MANIPULATION
IMF Resumes Direct Gold Dumping, Sells 10 Tons Of The Shiny Metal To
Bangladesh ZH
VIDEO TO WATCH
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
To paraphrase Oscar Wilde
Investors
know the price of everything but the value of nothing.
Author Unknown
In therapy, you have to accept a mistake to move on.
At times, this realization will be painful but in the end
it is better for you. Right now Wall Street is in
complete denial and trying to pretend all is well.
Their profits are up but all that is happening is a wealth
transfer from taxpayers to this unproductive group.
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BOOKSTORE
PROMOTION DETAILS |
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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and
does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion
only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as
recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or
any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his
statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own
credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a
qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory
agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment
decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your
own before making important investment commitments.ont>
© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information
herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he
does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements,
website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the
purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr.
Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in
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Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or
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READING
THE RIGHT BOOKS? NO TIME?
WE HAVE IT ANALYZED
& INCLUDED IN OUR LATEST RESEARCH PAPERS!
ACCEPTING
PRE-ORDERS
TIPPING POINTS |
1-SOVEREIGN DEBT &
CREDIT CRISIS |
2-EU BANKING CRISIS |
3-BOND BUBBLE |
4-STATE & LOCAL
GOVERNMENT |
5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
6-BANKING CRISIS II |
7-RISK REVERSAL |
|
8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE -
PHASE II |
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL
CRISIS PROGRAM |
11-PENSION CRISIS |
12-CHRONIC
UNEMPLOYMENT |
13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP
INSUR. |
14-CORPORATE
BANKRUPTCY |
|
15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II |
16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES |
17-CHINA BUBBLE |
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS |
|
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES |
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL |
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY. |
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE |
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS |
24-RETAIL SALES |
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS |
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP |
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST |
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS |
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT |
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES |
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES |
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS |
33-PANDEMIC |
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY |
35-TERRORIST EVENT |
36-NATURAL DISASTER |

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's
Plunder! Mish
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