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COMMENTARY for all articles by
Gordon T Long
PRESERVE & PROTECT: The Jaws of Death

The United States is
facing both a structural and demand problem - it is not the cyclical
recessionary business cycle or the fallout of a credit supply crisis
which the Washington spin would have you believe.
It is my opinion that
the Washington political machine is being forced to take this position,
because it simply does not know what to do about the real dilemma
associated with the implications of the massive structural debt and
deficits facing the US. This is a politically dangerous predicament
because the reality is we are on the cusp of an imminent and
significant
collapse in the standard of living for most Americans.
The politicos’ proven
tool of stimulus spending, which has been the silver bullet solution for
decades to everything that has even hinted of being a problem, is
clearly no longer working. Monetary and Fiscal policy are presently no
match for the collapse of the Shadow Banking System. A $2.1 Trillion YTD
drop in Shadow Banking Liabilities has become an insurmountable problem
for the Federal Reserve without a further and dramatic increase in
Quantitative Easing. The fallout from this action will be an intractable
problem which we will face for the next five to eight years, resulting
in the “Jaws of Death” for the American public.
READ MORE
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PRESERVE & PROTECT: Mapping the Tipping Points
The
economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of
‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane
subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail
investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the
institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of
yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any
proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people
are apparently willing to pay any price. As a sailor it feels
like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches
and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew
mates are talking as everyone is checking preparations for any
eventuality. Are you prepared?
What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane?
Unlike sailors the financial markets do not have the forecasting
technology to protect it from such a possibility. Good sailors before
today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use
of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It
appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial
community.
Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly
looming on the horizon.
Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971 the
increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking.
It has grown unchecked and inevitably became unhinged from world
industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.
READ MORE
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Last Update:
10/08/2021 07:14 AM
SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30
AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with
highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.
|
1
1-SOVEREIGN DEBT |
2-EU BANKING CRISIS |
3-BOND BUBBLE |
4-STATE &
LOCAL GOVERNMENT |
5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
6-BANKING CRISIS II |
7-RISK REVERSAL |
|
8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE -
PHASE II |
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL
CRISIS PROGRAM |
11-PENSION CRISIS |
12-CHRONIC
UNEMPLOYMENT |
13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP
INSUR. |
14-CORPORATE
BANKRUPTCY |
|
TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE |
RED ALERT |
AMBER ALERT |
ACTIVITY |
MONITOR |
|

Click to Enlarge

|
10-07-10
1-
SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS |
time (et) |
report |
period |
Actual |
Consensus forecast |
previous |
Thursday, Oct. 7 |
8:30 am |
Jobless claims |
10/1 |
445,000 |
455,000 |
456,000 |
3 pm |
Consumer credit |
Aug. |
-$3.3 bln |
N/A |
-$4.1 bln |
NY personal
income falls for 1st time in 70 years Reuters
Paychecks or net earnings tumbled 5.4 percent, while
dividends, interest and rent slid 8.4 percent, to a grand
total of nearly $908 billion, the state comptroller's
report said.
Not only did New Yorkers' personal incomes fall "almost
twice" as much as they did in the nation as a whole, but
they have yet to recover to pre-recession levels,
Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said
|
Goldman Sachs Says U.S. Economy May Be `Fairly Bad'
BL
David Stockman- The U.S. Is In A "Race To The Fiscal
Bottom" BI
"We are not in a conventional business
cycle recovery, so stimulus is futile and just adds
needlessly to the $9 trillion of Treasury paper already
floating dangerously around world financial markets.
Instead, after 40 years of profligate accumulation of public
and private debt, and reckless money-printing by the Fed, we
had an economic crash landing, which left us with an
enduring structural breakdown, not just a cyclical
downturn.
In effect, we undertook a national
leveraged buyout, raising total credit market debt to $52
trillion which represented a 3.6X leverage ratio against
national income or GDP. By contrast, during the 110 years
prior to 1980, our aggregate leverage hugged closely to a
far more modest ratio at 1.5 times national income.
The only solution is a long period of
debt deflation, downsizing and economic rehabilitation,
including a sustained downshift in consumption and
corresponding rise in national savings.
And a key element of the latter is a
drastic reduction in government dis-savings through spending
cuts and tax increases — and these measures need to start
right now. Keynesian policymakers who say wait for the
midterms to address the deficit are like battleship
admirals: They are fighting the last war with the same
failed strategy that gave rise to our current predicament."
Obama’s presidency is a
profound disappointment. So far, he’s proven that when
Republican’s start elective wars, Democrats can’t end them;
when Republicans empty the Treasury, Democrats can’t
replenish it; when Republicans put a middle-class destroying
money printer at the head of the Fed, Democrats reappoint
him; and when the Republicans unleash an orgy of dangerous
speculation on Wall Street, Democrats pass a contentless,
2,300 page, enabling act which will do nothing to protect
Main Street from another financial meltdown, even as it
keeps K Street fully employed. |
|
Small Investors Continue to Move Into Bonds
Pragmatic Capitalist
The latest AAII
small investors allocation survey showed a continued move into
bonds. Small investors are clearly hesitant to
embrace the equity markets and continue to seek income in the
safeness of bonds. The latest survey showed a 55% equity
allocation (60% historical average), 25% bond allocation (15%
historical average), and 20% cash (25% historical average).
Charles Rotblut of
AAII elaborated on
the results:
This month’s special question asked AAII
Members what factors influenced their decision to make or not
make a recent change to their allocations. The responses
centered on a few key themes. Some respondents cited
uncertainty about the economy, the upcoming election and
fiscal policy as complicating the outlook for stocks. Several
are looking for a catalyst from the stock market, either an
upside breakout or a near-term pullback that will create a
more attractive buying opportunity. Others said they were
comfortable with their allocations and saw no reasons to
change.
Here is a sampling of the responses:
- “Given the uncertainty in the economy
and lack of leadership in Washington, there is no clear
direction to take.”
- “No particular changes. I have
absolutely no conviction of the stock market’s direction.
Bonds are overpriced.”
- “There exists a tight trading range,
as we wait for a jobs catalyst and election clarity. I
expect to tilt towards
equities as we approach November.”
- “Putting new money into cash and
taking a ‘wait and see’ position before starting to dollar
cost average my way back into stocks and ETFs.”
- “I made no changes because allocations
are within my parameters and dividend income is meeting my
cash flow requirements.”
|
4- STATE
& LOCAL GOVERNMENT |
Ominous Clouds Over State, Local & Federal Government Financing
BIN
Illinois Pays More Than Mexico as Cash-Strapped States Sell Bonds
Overseas BL
Illinois capital-markets director John Sinsheimer and
Citigroup Inc. bankers took a globe-girdling trip from the U.K. to
China in June to persuade investors that the state’s $900 million
of Build America Bonds were a bargain.
The seven-country
visit worked. The state sold one-fifth of the federally subsidized
securities abroad the next month, tapping investors who are the
fastest-growing source of borrowed cash for U.S. municipalities.
Illinois, with the lowest credit
rating of any state from Moody’s Investors Service, dangled yields
higher than Mexico, which defaulted on debt in 1982, and Portugal,
which costs more to insure against missed payments. |
California Has to Delay Bills to Avert IOUs, Controller Says
BL
Just How Much Are America's Teachers Getting Paid
BI
5-
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
8-
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
Vacancies Drop at Shopping Malls WSJ
U.S. shopping malls have arrested their declines in occupancy
and lease rates and begun a slow recovery, but retail landlords
caution that a stronger rebound will depend on job gains and
renewed consumer confidence.
Vacancy rates at malls in the top 80 U.S. markets declined to
8.8% in the third quarter, down two-tenths of a percentage point
from a year earlier, according to data released Wednesday by
commercial-property research firm Reis Inc. The occupancy gain was
the first since the fourth quarter of 2006.
Meanwhile, third-quarter mall lease rates held steady at $38.72
per square foot per year, marking the first quarter that didn't
show a year-over-year decline in lease rates in two years,
according to Reis.
The numbers are similar for shopping centers, which are smaller
centers typically anchored by grocery stores with a row of small
shops facing a common parking lot. Shopping-center vacancies held
steady in the third quarter at 10.9%. Lease rates declined by
one-tenth of a percentage point to $16.58, the smallest decline
since the second quarter of 2008.
|
9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II |
Rule of Law Versus Bank Profits- Mortgage Fraud Edition
Naked Capitalism
Real estate downturn could last 8 years: IMF
MW
Foreclosure Furor Rises; Many Call for a Freeze
NYT
Foreclosure Mess: How Much Worse Can It Get?
ABC As Document Scandal Unwinds, 'Unimaginably Bad' Outcomes
Contemplated
10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
|
11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS
|
ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Cut 39,000 Jobs in September
BL
High unemployment could last a long time MW
Commentary: Trio of speakers put the
‘dismal’ back in economics |
13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE |
New GM, Same Old Union? Atlantic
NICE SUMMARY OF THE US AUTO INDUSTRY PROBLEM
"GM has a little over 50,000 employees and about 500,000 retirees"
GM's death was ultimately driven in large part by how its
management interacted with its unions. You can have quite a bit
of sympathy for both sides--as I do--and recognize that both sides
were taking the most obvious course at any given time, while also
realizing that the cumulative decisions were entirely toxic.
The first thing you need to recognize is that the militant unions
of the thirties were to some extent made more militant by the
abuses on the corporate side--the Battle of the Overpass, for
example, where company representatives beat the crap out of
organizers who were attempting to hand out leaflets in
a public space. Over time, that dynamic
evolved into something that was more stable, but also more toxic:
a sort of awful marriage between two sides that hate each other,
but hate everyone else even more.
One of the most remarkable things I learned in writing about GM
was that Ron Gettlefinger was totally blindsided by GM's financial
collapse. The UAW had so often convinced itself that the
company's dire warnings were simply strategic bargaining claims
that it didn't understand how parlous the underlying finances
were--and in fairness, in the past, management had often made
exaggerated claims when it was bargaining. One former auto
analyst I talked to said that the company would routinely claim
that anything it didn't want to do was being blocked by the
union--but when the rare equity researcher actually talked to the
UAW, they'd often find that the union had never heard of the issue
where it was allegedly the sole obstacle to change.
That said, by the mid-1950s the Big Three had settled into a
relatively stable relationship with the UAW. When contract time
came around, the UAW picked off the company it perceived as the
least able to survive a strike; used the threat of a strike to get
a good contract; and then demanded the same from the other two.
Those companies were now in a bad position, because if they
risked a strike, their competitor, who already had a contract,
would take all their customers.
This relationship essentially meant that the Big Three simply
didn't compete on labor cost, work processes, or any of the other
labor-side innovations that have enhanced productivity over the
last forty years. It's not that contracts didn't vary by company
or plant, but the outlines were broadly similar across the
industry. This was good for the UAW and good for the auto
manufacturers, because arguably it actually helped cement their
cosy oligopoly by removing one of the major competitive pressures.
And in many ways, the voter base and political clout of
the UAW was helpful to securing Detroit favors from
Washington. During that period, union peace was very valuable, and
management bought that union peace with concessions that seemed
cheap at the time: tax-favored pension and health care benefits.
Had there been no foreign competition, this wouldn't have
mattered so much.
|
14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES |
GE buys Dresser in $3bn push on energy
FT
The effect of a renminbi appreciation on the US-China trade balance
VOX
Wen urges EU to treat RMB exchange rate fairly Shanghai Daily
Wen warns against renminbi pressure FT
19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES |
Treasury Estimates Bailout Loss at $29 Billion NY Times
The
Treasury Department expects to lose $29 billion on the federal
bailouts stemming from the
financial crisis, with most of the losses in its housing
finance program and the auto rescue.
In a
report released on Tuesday, the administration said it
expected a $17 billion loss from its investments in
General Motors,
Chrysler and the auto finance companies, as well as a $46
billion loss from housing programs like the mortgage modification
program known as the Home Affordable Modification Program. |
OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
24-RETAIL SALES
Holiday sales forecast to rise 2.3%, retailers say CNN
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK
MARKET VALUATIONS
CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES
------------
David Rosenberg Attacks the Fed's Intentional Ponzi Approach
Calculated Risk
I am honestly still trying to grasp the fact that
the Fed has admitted to trying to run what is really
nothing more than a ponzi scheme….That is our great
American growth strategy. |
This weekend’s shocking admittal that
the Fed is hoping QE will keep asset prices “higher than
they otherwise would be” did not surprise David Rosenberg
one bit. In this morning’s note he said:
Brian Sack, a senior official at
the New York Fed, had this to say about the powers of
quantitative easing in a speech he just delivered:
“Some observers have argued that
balance sheet changes, even if they influence
longer-term interest rates, will not affect the
economy because the transmission mechanism is broken.
This point is overstated in my view. It is true that
certain aspects of the transmission mechanism are
clogged because of the credit constraints facing some
households and businesses, and it is true that
monetary policy cannot directly target those parties
that are the most constrained.
Nevertheless, balance sheet policy can still lower
longer-term borrowing costs for many households and
businesses, and it adds to household wealth by
keeping asset prices higher than they otherwise would
be. It seems highly unlikely that the economy
is completely insensitive to borrowing costs and
wealth, or to other changes in broad financial
conditions. ”
I just love that one comment to the
effect that QE “adds to household wealth by keeping
asset prices higher than they otherwise would be.”
When will these guys ever learn that maybe, just
maybe, these Fed policies aimed at targeting asset
prices at levels above their intrinsic values is
probably not in the best interests of the nation?
As our friend Marc Faber likes to say, the “Bernanke
put” is cut from the same cloth as the fabled
“Greenspan put” — only the strike price is different.
Imagine running a policy aimed at
getting people to spend
money based on an
artificial level of asset values — what an admission.
Then again, this is what the Fed has been all about
since the LTCM bailout of 1998. We’re still not
convinced after reading this sermon that this next
“pull-another-rabbit-out-of-the-hat” experiment is
going to end with very much success. There is
something to be said about paying for our mistakes and
to have the Fed try to rekindle an asset-based economy
that has only ended up in generating a series of burst
bubbles over the last 12 years, not to mention
encourage a lifestyle of living beyond our means, is
irresponsible at best, dangerous at worst.
I am honestly still trying to grasp the
fact that the Fed has admitted to trying to run what is
really nothing more than a ponzi scheme….That is our great
American growth strategy. Unbelievable.
|
Global Central Bank Action May Follow BOJ Moves on Rates BL
“The Bank of Japan is at the head of the pack. It
looks like a lot of others will follow. Whether it’s right
or not is another matter” |
U.S. Treasurys: Quantitative Easing Already Priced? BCAR
QE Coming: Slow Rise in Inflation Not Enough to Satisfy the Fed
MStanley
Excess Reserves Have to Decline for Fed Policy to be Successful
NTrust
Central Bankers are Paid to Lie Sheehan
Fed-Speak, “More Cowbell”
Ben Bernanke Makes It a Trifecta of Ignorance PragCap
Bernanke Sending Bears Into Hibernation? CNBC
Is
It Wrong to Capitalize on Nonpublic Fed Information? Atlantic
Larry Summers and the Subversion of Economics Chronicle
Business Cycle Monitor: Global slowdown takes its toll Danske
Deflation and the Fisher Equation FRBSL
David Goldman Explains Why Quantitative Easing Is Backfiring Badly
BI
Quantitative easing, once again, won’t create economic
growth. It will just reprice assets. In the Keynesian
model, it is supposed to drive money out of safe-haven
refuges (which have a negative real return) and into
brick-and-mortar and, presumably job creation. What it
does, in fact, is turn gold into a safe haven, and force
an increase in the savings rate! That’s because
prospective pensioners who thought they could retire with
a 7% annuity are looking at a 4% annuity instead. They
simply have to save more, and that’s bad for consumption.
The cost of money isn’t the main obstacle to job creation.
Obamacare and associated regulatory burdens are the big
problem. |
|
GENERAL INTEREST
U.S. Plans Law Enforcement 'Surge' On Trains Freedom's Phoenix
U.S. authorities plan a law enforcement surge this week along
Amtrak routes, an exercise called RailSafe, and the heads of the
country's biggest mass transit systems were briefed today on the
possible terror threat, all part of what is being called an
abundance of caution. Amtrak is holding a high-security exercise Friday in which uniformed officers
will be a visible presence on national transit routes. RailSafe will include all
the local police agencies along the Amtrak routes involved in the exercise.
"If al Qaeda is planning simultaneous attacks in Europe," said
Richard Clarke, former White House national security official and
now an ABC News consultant, "there's nothing to say they could not
also include the US on that list of simultaneous attacks."
A senior DHS official said the rail exercise is
"long-planned" and "is not connected in any way" to the terror
threat in Europe.
The stepped-up security comes as the French arrested 12 terror
suspects in Bordeaux and Marseilles, and as the U.S. used CIA
drones to attack a suspected center of the plot in Pakistan. (See
Video Included)
|
10 Factors Fomenting Financial Decoupling Hahn
Middle Class Cuts Back on Booze WSJ
European families still feel cash-strapped FT
FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS
The Mutual Fund in the 'Flash Crash' WSJ
Regulators looking at the "flash crash" have focused on a
Waddell & Reed mutual fund. It is part of a rapidly growing breed
of U.S. mutual funds that can trade in almost anything they want,
including hedging during times of trouble. |
MARKET WARNINGS
CURRENCY WARS
Analysis: G20 proximity talks needed to avert FX war Reuters
IMF chief fears currency war after Japan cuts rates to zero Telegraph
“There is clearly the idea beginning to circulate that
currencies can be used as a policy weapon” |
This Means War Black Swan
Countries pursue cheap money - none dare call it a "currency war"
Forsyth
How to fight the currency wars with stubborn China Wolf (via Google
jump)
FX feud puts won under upward pressure Korea Times
Emerging Asia feels currency strain FT
MARKET &
GOLD MANIPULATION
AUDIO / VIDEO
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“Within a single week 25 nations have
deliberately slashed the values of their currencies. Nothing
quite comparable with this has ever happened before in the history
of the world.”
Ben Davies, CEO of Hinde Capital
|
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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and
does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion
only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as
recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or
any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his
statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own
credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a
qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory
agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment
decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your
own before making important investment commitments.ont>
© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information
herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he
does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements,
website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the
purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr.
Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in
securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr.
Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or
future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should
consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon
statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or
recommendation you receive from him.
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TODAY'S NEWS
THURSDAY
10-07-10
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READING
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& INCLUDED IN OUR LATEST RESEARCH PAPERS!
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PRE-ORDERS
TIPPING POINTS |
1-SOVEREIGN DEBT &
CREDIT CRISIS |
2-EU BANKING CRISIS |
3-BOND BUBBLE |
4-STATE & LOCAL
GOVERNMENT |
5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
6-BANKING CRISIS II |
7-RISK REVERSAL |
|
8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE -
PHASE II |
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL
CRISIS PROGRAM |
11-PENSION CRISIS |
12-CHRONIC
UNEMPLOYMENT |
13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP
INSUR. |
14-CORPORATE
BANKRUPTCY |
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24-RETAIL SALES |
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS |
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP |
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30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES |
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32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS |
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35-TERRORIST EVENT |
36-NATURAL DISASTER |

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's
Plunder! Mish
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