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COMMENTARY for all articles by
Gordon T Long
PRESERVE & PROTECT: The Jaws of Death

The United States is
facing both a structural and demand problem - it is not the cyclical
recessionary business cycle or the fallout of a credit supply crisis
which the Washington spin would have you believe.
It is my opinion that
the Washington political machine is being forced to take this position,
because it simply does not know what to do about the real dilemma
associated with the implications of the massive structural debt and
deficits facing the US. This is a politically dangerous predicament
because the reality is we are on the cusp of an imminent and
significant
collapse in the standard of living for most Americans.
The politicos’ proven
tool of stimulus spending, which has been the silver bullet solution for
decades to everything that has even hinted of being a problem, is
clearly no longer working. Monetary and Fiscal policy are presently no
match for the collapse of the Shadow Banking System. A $2.1 Trillion YTD
drop in Shadow Banking Liabilities has become an insurmountable problem
for the Federal Reserve without a further and dramatic increase in
Quantitative Easing. The fallout from this action will be an intractable
problem which we will face for the next five to eight years, resulting
in the “Jaws of Death” for the American public.
READ MORE
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PRESERVE & PROTECT: Mapping the Tipping Points
The
economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of
‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane
subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail
investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the
institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of
yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any
proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people
are apparently willing to pay any price. As a sailor it feels
like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches
and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew
mates are talking as everyone is checking preparations for any
eventuality. Are you prepared?
What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane?
Unlike sailors the financial markets do not have the forecasting
technology to protect it from such a possibility. Good sailors before
today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use
of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It
appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial
community.
Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly
looming on the horizon.
Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971 the
increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking.
It has grown unchecked and inevitably became unhinged from world
industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.
READ MORE
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READER ROADMAP
- 2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to
positioning COMMENTARY
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Last Update:
10/15/2010 03:26 PM
SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30
AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
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Hungary's $1.8 Billion of Temporary Taxes Delay `Painful'
Cuts |
Bloomberg |
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Dubai's Worst Office Buildings Will Be Empty Forever, CBRE
Says |
Bloomberg |
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Dubai’s new housing tax may deter investors |
Khaleej Times |
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U.K. Government Will Scrap Some of 700 Agencies, Merge
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Bloomberg |
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Initial Jobless Claims in U.S. Rose 13,000 Last Week to
462,000 |
Bloomberg |
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Trade Gap in U.S. Climbs More Than Forecast as Imports
Increase |
Bloomberg |
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U.S. Trade Gap Widens |
WSJ |
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Producer Prices in U.S. Rose 0.4% in September; Core Up 0.1% |
Bloomberg |
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24 Facts About the US Economy That Are Almost Too Embarrassing to Admit |
Minyanville |
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Pimco Cuts Treasury Holdings on Prospects Fed's QE2 to Have
Limited Impact |
Bloomberg |
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Wall Street's snake oil salesmen are at it again |
Fairfax |
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Swaps Show China, India, Developing Nations Gaining on G-7 |
Bloomberg |
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The economic crisis was an 'inside job' |
Wash. Post |
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U.S. Home Seizures Reach Record Amid Foreclosure Review |
Bloomberg |
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A background briefing about the foreclosure crisis: origin
and impacts |
Fabius Maximus |
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The enormous mortgage-bond scandal |
Salmon |
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FDIC's Bair Calls 'Robo-Signings' Serious Issue |
Reuters |
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The Walls Keep Tumbling Down: Foreclosure Flap and Other
Housing Industry Woes |
Wharton |
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Wells adds to crisis over home seizures |
FT |
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Document Mess Hits Fannie, Freddie |
WSJ |
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Is Bank Of America The Most Exposed If There's A Brand New
Mortgage-Bond Scandal |
BI |
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The Link Between Corporate Profits And Investment Is Dead |
BI |
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The Education of President Obama |
NY Times |
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CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY |
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Would QE2 Have a Significant Effect on Economic Growth,
Employment, or Inflation? |
FRBSL |
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Key Treasury Yields When QE1 Was Put in Place |
N Trust |
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Why The Greatest Conflict Of Interest Lies INSIDE The Fed |
BI |
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GENERAL INTEREST |
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Monthly Economic Monitor - October |
NB Financial |
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Watching and Waiting |
Puplava |
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Roubini Expects 35-40% Chance of a Double Dip Recession in
U.S. |
Bloomberg |
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Business Owners Looking to Sell Come Up Short |
WSJ |
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CURRENCY WARS |
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The U.S. Will Lose a Currency War |
WSJ |
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25 interventions in a one week band, redux |
FT Alphav. |
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World needs to stay vigilant about active depreciation of
the dollar |
PDaily |
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Raising the Barricades Against a Rush of Capital |
NY Times |
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Who Caused the Currency Wars? |
Project
Syndicate |
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Russia's central bank calls for 'peace in currency wars' |
AFP |
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Currency scrap yet to become a brawl |
NZ Herald |
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Brazil ups the ante |
Financial
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Tensions trouble Seoul as summit looms |
FT |
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Protectionism becomes respectable |
Rachman |
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Inflation and devaluation is inevitable: Wolfensohn |
Reuters |
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German minister sees 'trade war' risk, report says |
AP |
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Will pressuring China provoke a trade war? |
St Louis Today |
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Russia scraps trading band: bank |
AFP |
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GCC states 'must unite for single currency plan' |
Gulf Daily News |
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Singapore Tightens Monetary Policy |
WSJ |
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On your marks, get set, devalue |
FT Alphav. |
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A Zimbabwe rally effect? |
FT Alphav. |
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Q3
EARNINGS |
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MARKET
& GOLD MANIPULATION |
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Can the G-20 and the I.M.F. Burst the Gold Bubble? |
Philips |
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VIDEO
TO WATCH |
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Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with
highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.
|
1
1-SOVEREIGN DEBT |
2-EU BANKING CRISIS |
3-BOND BUBBLE |
4-STATE &
LOCAL GOVERNMENT |
5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
6-BANKING CRISIS II |
7-RISK REVERSAL |
|
8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE -
PHASE II |
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL
CRISIS PROGRAM |
11-PENSION CRISIS |
12-CHRONIC
UNEMPLOYMENT |
13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP
INSUR. |
14-CORPORATE
BANKRUPTCY |
|
TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE |
RED ALERT |
AMBER ALERT |
ACTIVITY |
MONITOR |
|

Click to Enlarge

|
10-14-10
GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN
IRAN
ISREAL
KOREA
1-
SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS |
time (et) |
report |
period |
Actual |
Consensus forecast |
previous |
Thursday, Oct. 14 |
8:30 am |
Jobless claims |
10/8 |
462,000 |
444,000 |
449,000 |
8:30 am |
Trade balance |
Aug. |
-$46.3 |
-$44.1 bln |
-$42.6 bln |
8:30 am |
Producer price index |
Sept. |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
8:30 am |
Core PPI |
Sept. |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Initial Jobless Claims in U.S. Rose 13,000 Last Week to
462,000 BL
Trade Gap in U.S. Climbs More Than Forecast as Imports
Increase BL
U.S. Trade Gap Widens WSJ
U.S. imports surged 2.1% to $200.22 billion from
$196.12 billion in July while exports rose marginally to
$153.87 billion from $153.53 billion in July |
Producer Prices in U.S. Rose 0.4% in September; Core Up
0.1% BL
24 Facts About the US Economy That Are Almost Too Embarrassing to Admit
Minyanville
#1 Ten years ago, the United States was ranked number
one in average wealth per adult. In 2010, the United
States has fallen to seventh.
#2 The United States
once had the highest proportion of young adults with
post-secondary degrees in the world. Today, the U.S. has
fallen to 12th.
#3 In the 2009 "prosperity index"
published by the Legatum Institute, the United States was
ranked as just the ninth most prosperous country in the
world. That was down five places from 2008.
#4 In
2001, the United States ranked fourth in the world in per
capita broadband Internet use. Today it ranks 15th.
#5 The economy of India is projected to become larger
than the U.S. economy by the year 2050.
#6 One
prominent economist now says that the Chinese economy will
be three times larger than the U.S. economy by the year
2040.
#7 According to a new study conducted by
Thompson Reuters, China could become the global leader in
patent filings by next year.
#8 The United States
has lost approximately 42,400 factories since 2001.
Approximately 75 percent of those factories employed at
least 500 workers while they were still in operation.
#9 The United States has lost a staggering 32 percent
of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.
#10
Manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is
actually lower in 2010 than it was in 1975.
#11 In
1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of all U.S.
economic output. In 2008, it represented only 11.5
percent.
#12 The television manufacturing industry
began in the United States. So how many televisions are
manufactured in the United States today? According to
Princeton University economist Alan S. Blinder, the grand
total is zero.
#13 As of the end of 2009, less than
12 million Americans worked in manufacturing. The last
time that less than 12 million Americans were employed in
manufacturing was in 1941.
#14 Back in 1980, the
United States imported approximately 37 percent of the oil
that we use. Now we import nearly 60 percent of the oil
that we use.
#15 The U.S. trade deficit is running
about 40 or 50 billion dollars a month in 2010. That means
that by the end of the year approximately half a trillion
dollars (or more) will have left the United States for
good.
#16 Between 2000 and 2009, America's trade
deficit with China increased nearly 300 percent.
#17 Today, the United States spends approximately $3.90 on
Chinese goods for every $1 that China spends on goods from
the United States.
#18 According to a new study
conducted by the Economic Policy Institute, if the U.S.
trade deficit with China continues to increase at its
current rate, the U.S. economy will lose over half a
million jobs this year alone.
#19 American
15-year-olds do not even rank in the top half of all
advanced nations when it comes to math or science
literacy.
#20 Median household income in the U.S.
declined from $51,726 in 2008 to $50,221 in 2009. That was
the second yearly decline in a row.
#21 The United
States has the third worst poverty rate among the advanced
nations tracked by the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development.
#22 Since the Federal
Reserve was created in 1913, the U.S. dollar has lost over
95 percent of its purchasing power.
#23 U.S.
government spending as a percentage of GDP is now up to
approximately 36 percent.
#24 The Congressional
Budget Office is projecting that U.S. government public
debt will hit 716 percent of GDP by the year 2080. |
|
Pimco Cuts Treasury Holdings on Prospects Fed's QE2 to Have
Limited Impact BL
They essentially believe that the bond rally ahead of
quantitative easing is finished:
“The market is very clearly anticipating that the Fed is going
to act,” Douglas Hodge, chief operating officer, said in an
interview at the World Knowledge Forum in Seoul today. “The
challenge right now is the breadth of policy measures that can be
taken by the U.S. is rather limited.”
“Even if the QE process is large and rates decline further, in
our view we’re approaching the end of the bond market rally,”
Hodge said. “From where we sit, it’s very hard to suggest there’s
going to be that kind of price appreciation that we’ve seen in
bonds over the last 12 to 24 months.”
|
4- STATE
& LOCAL GOVERNMENT |
5-
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
Wall Street's snake oil salesmen are at it again
Fairfax
Swaps Show China, India, Developing Nations Gaining on G-7
BL
Credit-default swaps on bonds sold by Brazil, Russia, India and China are
closing in on those tied to the world’s largest economies, which are piling on
debt in an attempt to stoke growth. The
average cost of contracts protecting debt of the so- called BRICs dropped to
41.4 basis points more than the price of swaps on the
Group of Seven countries and last week reached the lowest on record. The
extra cost to insure the emerging-market nations’ bonds
shrunk from 362 basis points, or 3.62 percentage points, in March 2009. Record demand for emerging-market bonds is driving down the relative yields that
investors seek to own the debt.
The average cost of swaps on BRIC nations
has fallen 9 basis points since the start of the year to 116 basis
points, while the G-7 average jumped 15 to 74, according to data
provider CMA. The G-7 average includes swaps on the U.S., U.K.,
France, Germany, Italy and Japan. Swaps on Canada are not actively
traded.
The extra yield investors demand to own company bonds instead
of similar maturity government debt fell 1 basis point to 168
basis points, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global
Broad Market Corporate Index. That’s the lowest since reaching the
same level May 13 and down 13 basis points since Aug. 31. Yields
averaged 3.36 percent yesterday.
Credit-default swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment
Grade Index, which investors use to hedge against losses on
corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, fell 4.2 basis
points to a mid-price of 92.8
|
Developing nations will grow 6.4 percent next year, while
developed economies will expand 2.2 percent, the International
Monetary Fund said last week. |
The economic crisis was an 'inside job' WP
8-
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II |
U.S. Home Seizures Reach Record Amid Foreclosure Review
BL
A background briefing about the foreclosure crisis: origin and
impacts Fabius Maximus
The enormous mortgage-bond scandal Salmon
FDIC's Bair Calls 'Robo-Signings' Serious Issue
Reuters
The Walls Keep Tumbling Down: Foreclosure Flap and Other Housing
Industry Woes Wharton
Wells adds to crisis over home seizures FT
US court documents reveal ‘robo signer’
Document Mess Hits Fannie, Freddie WSJ
Fannie and Freddie are reviewing the work of a top Florida law
firm they recommended to process foreclosures, raising questions
for the first time about their role in the unfolding
mortgage-foreclosure crisis. |
Is Bank Of America The Most Exposed If There's A Brand New
Mortgage-Bond Scandal BI
Earlier, we wrote about
Felix Salmon's contention that there's a new mortgage fraud
scandal that has the potential to dwarf Goldman's ABACUS dealings.
In this fraud scenario, banks
took advantage of their information advantage and sold CDOs
with mortgages they knew to be bad without clear representation to
investors.
In August, Manal Mehta and
Branch Hill Capital
put together a presentation targeting Bank of America's potential
exposure to this mortgage fraud, as well as other problems in the
mortgage market.
The presentation comes to a pretty damning conclusion: Bank of
America's exposure could nearly halve its share price.
It's all about what capital Bank of America has in reserve for
the scenario of mortgages having to come back on its balance
sheet.
The breakdown does not detail what exposures Merrill Lynch may
add to Bank of America's problem.
*Note: This presentation was sent to his by Manal Mehta,
and we do not know what positions he, or his firm, have in Bank of
America or any other mentioned party. Therefore, we'd assume they
have a position.
|
10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
|
11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS
|
13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE |
14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES |
The Link Between Corporate Profits And Investment Is Dead
BI
companies are spending money on buybacks and mergers and not anything that will
create new business or jobs. Specifically, as this chart form the New
America Foundation equipment and software spending seem pretty delinked from
profit. |
19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES |
The Education of President Obama NY
Times
Yet even if the White
House saw it coming, this is an administration that feels
shellshocked. Many officials worry, they say, that the best days
of the Obama presidency are behind them. They talk about whether
it is time to move on. While not in the 30s,
Obama’s approval rating in surveys conducted by The New York Times
and CBS News had fallen to 45 percent last month from 62 percent
when he took office — just a point above where Clinton was before
losing Congress in 1994 and three points above where Reagan was
before the Republicans lost a couple dozen House seats in 1982.
Joel Benenson, Obama’s pollster, pointed out that even at 45
percent, the president’s popularity eclipses that of Congress, the
news media, the banks and other forces in American life. “We are
in a time when the American public is highly suspect of any
institution,” he said, “and
President Obama still stands above that.” Obama’s team takes
pride that he has fulfilled three of the five major promises he
laid out as pillars of his “new foundation” in an April 2009
speech at
Georgetown University — health care, education reform and
financial reregulation. And they point to decisions to end the
combat mission in Iraq while escalating the war in Afghanistan.
“History will judge Obama that the first two years were very
productive,” Rouse says.
|
OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
24-RETAIL SALES
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK
MARKET VALUATIONS
CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES
------------
Would QE2 Have a Significant Effect on Economic Growth,
Employment, or Inflation? FRBSL
Key Treasury Yields When QE1 Was Put in Place NTrust
Why The Greatest Conflict Of Interest Lies INSIDE The Fed
BI
The Fed is creating a conflict of interest between its
own institutional best interests and the proper choices
for monetary policy. That is the definition of a systemic
risk. Bernanke needs to address this conflict. I want him
on the record acknowledging the risks of what he has done
and is about to double up on:
The Fed commits to all interested
parties that it will act in all future periods consistent
with its mandate for stable prices. Should circumstances
arise that require a rapid tightening of monetary policy
the Fed would act accordingly and ignore the consequences
to its own financial position. Should this occur
substantial and sustained losses would be incurred. The
Fed accepts in advance the full consequences of its
actions.
|
|
GENERAL INTEREST
Monthly Economic Monitor - October NB Financial
Watching and Waiting Puplava
Roubini Expects 35-40% Chance of a Double Dip Recession in U.S. BL
Business Owners Looking to Sell Come Up Short WSJ
FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS
MARKET WARNINGS
CURRENCY WARS
The U.S. Will Lose a Currency War WSJ
From its outset, the G20 identified global rebalancing as a
policy goal, but never decided how to address the problem. Its
predecessor organization, the Group of Five, signed the Plaza
Accord in 1985 to reduce global imbalances by forcing the yen and
the mark to appreciate versus the dollar. It wasn't very
effective. The yen rose to 80 versus the greenback in mid-1995,
from 250 in 1985. Yet Japan's current-account surpluses did not
disappear. Likewise, the dollar's inflation-adjusted exchange rate
fluctuated during the past three decades, but the U.S. current
account deficit continued to climb.
Like its predecessor, a new Plaza Accord would demand
substantial appreciation of currencies in major surplus economies
like China, Japan, Germany and oil-exporting countries. Yet
politically, that is highly unlikely to happen in Seoul next
month. The U.S. may be a strong supporter, but positions within
the European Union vary from large deficit countries like Britain
to large surplus countries like Germany. Japan would be reluctant
to sign up, given its prior experience. China will never let the
U.S. force a sharp yuan revaluation. Other Asian members of the
G-20 like South Korea and Indonesia are also running current
account surpluses and unlikely to support such a deal.
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25 interventions in a one week band, redux FT Alphaville
Keeping up with
currency wars can be a busy business.
It’s time, therefore, to give our already extensive
intervention list, originally compiled on September 28, an
update. And check out the emerging market entrants.
Via BNP Paribas, intervention from Egypt:
In Egypt, the Egyptian pound
spiked to 5.7030/USD on tuesday with rumours of the central bank
of Egypt purchasing dollars through its known arms in the local
market. The CBE continues to deliver a clear policy of
loosening the EGP which given the ongoing global currency wars
debate makes good economic sense but might create some risks to
the inflation outlook. We remain of the view that the CBE is
unlikely to take USDEGP above the 5.84 level which was the level
where the interbank market was introduced.
And a ‘we’re thinking about it’ entry for India:
MUMBAI (Dow
Jones)–India will intervene in the foreign exchange market if
capital inflows become volatile or lumpy, Reserve Bank of India
Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said Saturday, in what may be a sign of
the central bank’s growing concern on a sharp rupee rise.
“If the inflows are lumpy and volatile or
if they disrupt the macroeconomic situation, we will do so
(intervene),” Subbarao said in an address to global central
bankers at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, posted
on the central bank’s website.
Which takes our list to* :
Which makes 23 countries, and just two short of
Henry Hazlitt’s scary Bretton Woods breakdown vision. As a
reminder the economist/journalist
warned back in 1949 that a breakdown of the ‘flawed’
dollar-backed fixed rate exchange mechanism would lead to:
Within a single week 25 nations have
deliberately slashed the values of their currencies. Nothing quite
comparable with this has ever happened before in the history of
the world. This world monetary earthquake will carry many lessons.
* Cautionary notes: We count everything
including actual intervention, de facto intervention via such
measures as quantitative easing, suspected intervention and talk
of intervention. We are not counting countries that have always
pegged their currencies. The list is also a living, breathing
work-in-progress, updated as and when we hear of interventions.
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World needs to stay vigilant about active depreciation of the dollar
PDaily
It
is the dollar that triggered the currency war...
Raising the Barricades Against a Rush of Capital NYT
Who Caused the Currency Wars? Project-Syndicate (Johnson)
Russia's central bank calls for 'peace in currency wars' AFP
Currency scrap yet to become a brawl NZHerald
Brazil ups the ante Financial Express
Tensions trouble Seoul as summit looms FT
The
won is the only main Asian currency to have dropped in value against the
dollar since 08
Protectionism becomes respectable Rachman
Inflation and devaluation is inevitable: Wolfensohn Reuters
German minister sees 'trade war' risk, report says AP
Will pressuring China provoke a trade war? St. Louis Today
Russia scraps trading band: bank AFP
GCC states 'must unite for single currency plan' Gulf Daily News
Singapore Tightens Monetary Policy WSJ
Singapore tightened monetary policy in a surprise move, saying
it will guide its currency higher at a "slightly" faster pace in a
bid to contain inflation. The Singapore dollar rose to record
highs on the news. |
On your marks, get set, devalue – FT Alphaville
A Zimbabwe rally effect? – FT Alphaville
Currency wars: sound bite of the week – FT Alphaville
Q3 EARNINGS
MARKET &
GOLD MANIPULATION
Can the G-20 and the I.M.F. Burst the Gold Bubble? Phillips
AUDIO / VIDEO
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
"The global financial system continues to be unsound in
the same way that a Ponzi scheme is unsound: there are not
enough cash flows to ultimately service the face value of all
the existing obligations over time. A Ponzi scheme may very
well be liquid, as long as few people ask for their money back
at any given time. But solvency is a different matter -
relating to the ability of the assets to satisfy the
liabilities."
John Hussman
No Margin
of Safety, No Room for Error
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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and
does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion
only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as
recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or
any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his
statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own
credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a
qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory
agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment
decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your
own before making important investment commitments.ont>
© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information
herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he
does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements,
website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the
purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr.
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ACCEPTING
PRE-ORDERS
TIPPING POINTS |
1-SOVEREIGN DEBT &
CREDIT CRISIS |
2-EU BANKING CRISIS |
3-BOND BUBBLE |
4-STATE & LOCAL
GOVERNMENT |
5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
6-BANKING CRISIS II |
7-RISK REVERSAL |
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8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE -
PHASE II |
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL
CRISIS PROGRAM |
11-PENSION CRISIS |
12-CHRONIC
UNEMPLOYMENT |
13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP
INSUR. |
14-CORPORATE
BANKRUPTCY |
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15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II |
16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES |
17-CHINA BUBBLE |
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS |
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19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES |
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL |
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY. |
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE |
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS |
24-RETAIL SALES |
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS |
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP |
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST |
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS |
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT |
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35-TERRORIST EVENT |
36-NATURAL DISASTER |

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's
Plunder! Mish
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