|
ANALYTICAL
SERVICES
Fibonacci - W.D.
Gann
Elliott Wave - J. M.
Hurst
Developers of Chaos Theory
& Mandelbrot
Generator
Algorithms
APPLICATION FOCUS
|
A
MUST READ FOR ANY UNDERSTANDING
of the current
GLOBAL MACRO ECONOMIC
ENVIRONMENT
FREE
INTRODUCTORY
MAILING
Current Thesis Advisory
62 pages
EXTEND & PRETEND
Click page to view Index
Contact Us
Add Promo Code:
"Introduction"
in the Subject Heading
The Latest Monthly
MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY
12 pages
Click page for Front Page
Contact Us
Add Promo Code: "MMU"
in the Subject Heading
FREE
INTRODUCTORY
ACCESS
FACEBOOK
DAILY TIPPING POINT ARTICLE POSTS
SAMPLE PAGE
Click page to view Index
Contact Us
Add Promo Code: "Facebook"
in the Subject Heading
CUSTOMIZE YOUR RESEARCH EFFORTS
TIPPING POINT
TAG ENGINE
Click page to view Index
Free Access to Our Tag Engine for detailed research behind our Tipping
Points.
OVER 1000 ARTICLES INDEXED
each with an
Executive Summary - Abstract
SAMPLE
Click page to view Index
Contact Us
Add Promo Code: "Tag
Engine"
in the Subject Heading
| |
|
LATEST PUBLICATIONS |
RSS
 |
COMMENTARY for all articles by
Gordon T Long
|
CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy
  The
critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective
public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic
Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening
salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.
Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political
distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my
opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong!
I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend
& Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian
policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored
a
full series of articles from January through August in a broadly
published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted
failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has
happened was not fully predictable!
Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more
money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted
QE II was inevitable in
March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets
with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term
elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an
“undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is
the last bastion of scoundre s
READ MOREE
|
|
PRESERVE & PROTECT: The Jaws of Death
The United States is
facing both a structural and demand problem - it is not the cyclical
recessionary business cycle or the fallout of a credit supply crisis
which the Washington spin would have you believe.
It is my opinion that
the Washington political machine is being forced to take this position,
because it simply does not know what to do about the real dilemma
associated with the implications of the massive structural debt and
deficits facing the US. This is a politically dangerous predicament
because the reality is we are on the cusp of an imminent and
significant
collapse in the standard of living for most Americans.
The politicos’ proven
tool of stimulus spending, which has been the silver bullet solution for
decades to everything that has even hinted of being a problem, is
clearly no longer working. Monetary and Fiscal policy are presently no
match for the collapse of the Shadow Banking System. A $2.1 Trillion YTD
drop in Shadow Banking Liabilities has become an insurmountable problem
for the Federal Reserve without a further and dramatic increase in
Quantitative Easing. The fallout from this action will be an intractable
problem which we will face for the next five to eight years, resulting
in the “Jaws of Death” for the American public.
READ MORE
|
READER ROADMAP
- 2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to
positioning COMMENTARY
|
|
|
Last Update:
10/26/2010 02:54 PM
SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30
AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with
highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.
|
|
1
|
1-SOVEREIGN DEBT |
|
2-EU BANKING CRISIS |
|
3-BOND BUBBLE |
|
4-STATE &
LOCAL GOVERNMENT |
|
5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
|
6-BANKING CRISIS II |
|
7-RISK REVERSAL |
|
|
8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
|
9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE -
PHASE II |
|
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL
CRISIS PROGRAM |
|
11-PENSION CRISIS |
|
12-CHRONIC
UNEMPLOYMENT |
|
13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP
INSUR. |
|
14-CORPORATE
BANKRUPTCY |
|
|
TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE |
|
RED ALERT |
AMBER ALERT |
ACTIVITY |
MONITOR |
|
Click to Enlarge
|
|
10-25-10
GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN
IRAN
ISREAL
KOREA
|
1-
SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS |
Bankers 'caused credit crisis for kicks'
Telegraph
|
4- STATE
& LOCAL GOVERNMENT |
|
5-
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
7 banks closed in Fla., Ga., Ill., Kan., Ariz. AP
FDIC
|
8-
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
|
9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II |
The Subprime Debacle: Act 2, Part 2 Mauldin
Maine law set foreclosure crisis in motion
Stateline
US foreclosure pipeline slows FT
More borrowers
stay in homes after defaults
Foreclosures spawn new attitude to ownership
FT
Foreclosure pressure on banks grows FT
Wells Fargo defends its foreclosures FT
|
10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
|
|
11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS
|
Radical changes to state pension proposed
FT
Move to simplify arrangements and reduce means-testing
|
13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE |
|
14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES |
China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers
Janszen
Manias and Meddlers: Secret Past of Chinese Stock Market WSJ
| Amid the almost irresistible excitement over China's explosive
growth, it is important to understand that the Asian giant has run
this exact race before—several times—and the results weren't
pretty. |
Greenspan's Bubbles to Lose Air in Frothy China Pesek
Wang and US finance chief hold meeting Shanghai Daily
|
19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES |
Key Tax Breaks at Risk as Panel Looks at Cuts
WSJ
OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE
24-RETAIL SALES
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK
MARKET VALUATIONS
GENERAL INTEREST
The Rules Of the Game and Economic Recovery Shales
FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS
MARKET WARNINGS
The US Equity Market Is Dead And Only The Taxpayer Is Still Buying
Smith
˜Head & shoulders’ and ‘double-dips’ Hulbert
Richard Clarida's retrospective on the financial crisis Econbrowser
Falling Into the Chasm Krugman
G20 FINANCE MINISTERS
G20 pledges action on currencies FT
In their final communique on Saturday, the finance ministers
said they would “move towards market-determined exchange rate
systems that reflect market fundamentals and refrain from
competitive devaluation of currencies.” It will work to avoid
a “currency war” but has failed to set
a specific target on restraining groaning current account
imbalances.
The ministers ultimately concluded
that the IMF would be given a close supervisory role in ensuring
that countries with “persistently large imbalances” were subject
to a mutual assessment programme. This would pile peer pressure on
countries seen to be running too deeply into surplus or deficit.
At future meetings, the G20 members would have to agree on
“indicative guidelines” on trade balances, the communique
said.
SURPRIZING ANNOUNCEMENT
The group also reached a surprisingly robust agreement to shift power in the
International Monetary Fund away from EU nations, which will lose two seats on
the executive board, and boost quota shares to major emerging nations.
G20 finance ministers, meeting in the South Korean city of
Gyeongju, made their first joint pledge not to engineer weak
currencies to support exporters, a charge levelled against China
by the US.
In their final communique on Saturday, the finance ministers
said they would “move towards market-determined exchange rate
systems that reflect market fundamentals and refrain from
competitive devaluation of currencies.”
In an attempt to set more concrete targets on the underlying
factors behind exchange rates, South Korea and the United States
pushed G20 countries to strike a deal under which surpluses and
deficits should remain within 4 per cent of gross domestic
product.
South Korean G20 officials said there had been broad sympathy
for combatting imbalances in current accounts, even from China
which has acknowledged a 4 per cent target chimed with its own
forecasts. But an EU official disagreed, saying Chinese
officials had met German counterparts to discuss resistance to the
US and Korean proposal. All parties agreed the most vocal
opponents to a definite target had been Germany, Japan and Brazil,
supported by major commodity exporters.
Despite such frictions, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing
director of the IMF, suggested China and the US were edging
towards common ground on the current account, saying that
opposition came chiefly from “smaller” nations, such as oil
exporters, and observing that China was on track to meet the 4 per
cent target.
Despite no agreement in Gyeongju on specific current account
targets, the ministers ultimately concluded that the IMF would be
given a close supervisory role in ensuring that countries with
“persistently large imbalances” were subject to a mutual
assessment programme. This would pile peer pressure on countries
seen to be running too deeply into surplus or deficit.
At future meetings, the G20 members would have to agree on
“indicative guidelines” on trade balances, the communique said.
George Osborne, Britain’s finance minister, said it was “within
the realms of possibility” to strike a more comprehensive deal on
the imbalances at a G20 leaders’ summit in Seoul on November 11,
arguing the key to a breakthrough would be agreeing targets on a
more tailor-made basis.
“We should have something more country specific. Just having a
single target risks being too broad a tool,” he told reporters.
The US has hoped to steer the G20 debate with China away from a
narrow focus on currency to the broader root causes of the weak
renminbi. When asked about this new approach in addressing the
global imbalances, Timothy Geithner, US treasury secretary,
praised Beijing for a “very constructive and pragmatic role.”
“China recognises that it cannot afford to rely like it did in
the past on such an export-dependent model for growth and, as part
of that, it is now starting to allow its exchange rate to rise in
response to market forces, and I think that is very promising.”
|
Germany And Brazil Torpedo Currency Deal At The G20 BI
Imbalancing act as G20 ministers still fail to deliver King
Trade imbalance targets elude G20 FT
Ministerial meeting can only set framework policy
Traders snap up stocks and commodities as dollar slumps FT
| G20 conclusion a green light for more
selling |
G-20 Sketches Out Currency Steps WSJ
| The Group of 20 nations are pursuing an accord to end battles
over currencies that relies on goodwill and peer pressure to
persuade countries to comply with internationally agreed norms,
rather than enforceable sanctions. |
IMF REFORM
G20 reaches deal on reform of IMF FT
IMF Says G-20 Agreed on ‘Biggest Reform Ever’ (Update1) BL
|
Group of 20 nations agreed on an overhaul of the International
Monetary Fund that gives a larger voice to emerging market
nations, IMF Managing Director
Dominique Strauss-Kahn said.
More than 6 percent of voting rights will be reallocated to
underrepresented emerging-market nations and Europe will give up
two board seats in the “biggest reform ever in the governance of
the institution,” Strauss-Kahn told reporters today in Gyeongju,
South Korea. The G-20 also agreed on the structure for a
“financial safety net” to stop nascent financial crises before
they speed out of control, he said.
The IMF’s board may approve the package in the first week in
November, and it will probably take a year for the changes to be
put in place, Strauss-Kahn said. The package includes a shift in
the composition of the IMF’s executive board and the fund’s 10
biggest shareholders.
Strauss-Kahn called the deal a “historical agreement” as the
Washington-based lender takes on a larger role in monitoring the
world’s economies, currencies and capital flows. South Korea, the
host of this weekend’s meeting of G-20 financial chiefs, proposed
the safety net.
G-20 officials also prepared an agreement to avoid competitive
devaluations and give the IMF greater sway in assessing economic
imbalances among nations.
All-Elected Board
The IMF will move to an all-elected executive board of
directors and Europe will give up two seats. Earlier today, a G-
20 official said that the Group of Seven, Brazil, Russia, India
and China settled on the plan after a disagreement between the
U.S. and Europe over how to increase the role of emerging-market
countries on the fund’s board.
Group of 20 leaders pledged last year to increase the voting
power of China and others and planned to settle on details before
G-20 leaders meet in Seoul in November. U.S. Treasury Secretary
Timothy F. Geithner has cited this plan in his campaign for
China to allow its currency, the yuan, to appreciate against the
dollar.
Strauss-Kahn said the changes will give the IMF a “totally
legitimate board.” European nations will be able to take advantage
of the implementation period to work out exactly how the shift in
board seats will take place, he said.
After the changes take effect, the fund’s 10 biggest
shareholders will comprise the U.S., Japan, four major European
economies and Brazil, Russia, India and China.
|
Accord on IMF board masks lack of progress FT
CURRENCY WARS
Q3 EARNINGS
MARKET &
GOLD MANIPULATION
Advisers Try to Tame Investors' Appetite for Gold WSJ
|
To clients who walk in the door craving gold, he makes two
arguments. For one, long-term gold prices merely keep pace with
inflation, and investors should concentrate instead on their
broader goals like what kind of income they would like to
generate. For those that won't be swayed, he points toward SPDR
Gold Trust, but he keeps the exchange-traded fund at no more than
5% of their overall portfolios.
|
AUDIO / VIDEO
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
|
"The global financial system continues to be unsound in
the same way that a Ponzi scheme is unsound: there are not
enough cash flows to ultimately service the face value of all
the existing obligations over time. A Ponzi scheme may very
well be liquid, as long as few people ask for their money back
at any given time. But solvency is a different matter -
relating to the ability of the assets to satisfy the
liabilities."
John Hussman
No Margin
of Safety, No Room for Error
|
|
 |
BUY ANY BOOK
GET 2 MONTH SUBSCRIPTION TO MONTHLY
MARKET COMMENTARY |
BOOKSTORE
PROMOTION DETAILS |
|
|
Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and
does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion
only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as
recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or
any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his
statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own
credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a
qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory
agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment
decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your
own before making important investment commitments.ont>
© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information
herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he
does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements,
website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the
purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr.
Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in
securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr.
Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or
future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should
consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon
statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or
recommendation you receive from him.
|
READING
THE RIGHT BOOKS? NO TIME?
WE HAVE IT ANALYZED
& INCLUDED IN OUR LATEST RESEARCH PAPERS!
ACCEPTING
PRE-ORDERS
|
TIPPING POINTS |
|
1-SOVEREIGN DEBT &
CREDIT CRISIS |
|
2-EU BANKING CRISIS |
|
3-BOND BUBBLE |
|
4-STATE & LOCAL
GOVERNMENT |
|
5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
|
6-BANKING CRISIS II |
|
7-RISK REVERSAL |
|
|
8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
|
9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE -
PHASE II |
|
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL
CRISIS PROGRAM |
|
11-PENSION CRISIS |
|
12-CHRONIC
UNEMPLOYMENT |
|
13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP
INSUR. |
|
14-CORPORATE
BANKRUPTCY |
|
|
|
15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II |
|
16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES |
|
17-CHINA BUBBLE |
|
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS |
|
|
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES |
|
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL |
|
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY. |
|
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE |
|
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS |
|
24-RETAIL SALES |
|
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS |
|
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP |
|
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST |
|
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS |
|
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT |
|
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES |
|
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES |
|
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS |
|
33-PANDEMIC |
|
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY |
|
35-TERRORIST EVENT |
|
36-NATURAL DISASTER |
Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's
Plunder! Mish
|
