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COMMENTARY for all articles by
Gordon T Long
CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!
In
September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy
decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court
with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split
them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set
the world on the path to global currency wars.
By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the
US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an
uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian
economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and
money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the
expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting
on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile
with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.
Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become
casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary
responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership
placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained
destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way
out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our
political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary
responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to
their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at
certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a
needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense
adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of
success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into. A future
that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come.
READ MORE |
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CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy
The
critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective
public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic
Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening
salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.
Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political
distraction from the real issue – a failure
of US policy leadership. In my
opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong!
I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend
& Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian
policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored
a
full series of articles from January through August in a broadly
published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted
failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has
happened was not fully predictable!
Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more
money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted
QE II was inevitable in
March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets
with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term
elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an
“undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is
the last bastion of scoundres
READ MORE
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Last Update:
11/02/2021 05:20 AM
SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30
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THE GREAT GAME: Currency War Is The Start Of A 21st Century
Geopolitical Struggle For Resourcess |
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Yemen Covert Role Pushed |
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Merkel consigns Ireland, Portugal and Spain to their fate |
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Cameron and Sarkozy pursue entente cordiale |
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Rousseff Elected Brazil's First Female President, Defeating
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Japan data fuel fear of return to recession |
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Sino-Japan dispute overshadows summit |
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China plans manned space station by 2020 |
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Paper weight Buyers fear growing bond bubble |
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Snow: Fix Housing or America Will Need Another Bailout |
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Debtors repent by walking away, not by paying of |
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The States Take On Foreclosures |
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White-collar recession, blue-collar depression |
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China PMI jumps as rest of Asia slows |
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Swiss watch industry rides China wave |
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Vote Hints at Historic Political Volatility |
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Scott Rasmussen- A Vote Against Dems, Not for the GOP |
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Concentrated Wealth and the Purchase of Political Power:
Democracy's Death Spiral |
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CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY |
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Fed poised for biggest decision in decades |
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Unemployment Probably Hovered Near 10% as Fed Discusses
Additional Easing |
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Rep. Brady Tells Fed's Bernanke QE2 May Backfire |
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Bernanke Had To Brag About It, What He’s Doin’ |
Harding |
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Why the Fed's bold move won't work |
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GENERAL INTEREST |
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Be Careful What You Wish For |
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So Now What? |
Schwab |
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Just the Facts |
Noland |
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The not-so-scary income trust conversion |
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I Hear America Whining? Zip It, Pal |
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Avoid the college bubble |
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Was France at fault for The Great Depression? |
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MARKET WARNINGSMARKET WARNINGS |
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Investors increase exposure to equities |
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Stocks Face Dark Side of Gridlock in Capital |
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U.S. Money Managers Turn Bullish on Stocks, Barron's `Big
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`Toxic' Orders Can Predict Likelihood of Stock Market
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Currency Swings Show G-20 Faith Fading as Korea Eyes
Controls |
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China could afford 3-5% yuan rise a year |
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G20: In Need of an Intervention |
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$US sinks to 15-year low versus yen |
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Q3
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Growth in Profit, But Concerns Over Sales |
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MARKET
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Money, Bubbles and Ersatzgold |
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Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with
highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.
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1
1-SOVEREIGN DEBT |
2-EU BANKING CRISIS |
3-BOND BUBBLE |
4-STATE &
LOCAL GOVERNMENT |
5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
6-BANKING CRISIS II |
7-RISK REVERSAL |
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8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE -
PHASE II |
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL
CRISIS PROGRAM |
11-PENSION CRISIS |
12-CHRONIC
UNEMPLOYMENT |
13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP
INSUR. |
14-CORPORATE
BANKRUPTCY |
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TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE |
RED ALERT |
AMBER ALERT |
ACTIVITY |
MONITOR |
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11-01-10
GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN
THE GREAT GAME: Currency War Is The Start Of A 21st Century
Geopolitical Struggle For Resources BI

YEMEN
Yemen Covert Role Pushed WSJ
The foiled mail bombing plot by suspected
al Qaeda militants in Yemen has added urgency to a White House
review of military options that include giving the CIA more
control of special operations.
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1-
SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS |
GREECE
SPAIN
GERMANY
Merkel consigns Ireland, Portugal and Spain to their fate
Pritchard
Germany has had enough. Any eurozone state that spends
its way into a debt crisis or cannot adapt to a monetary
union set for Northern rhythms will face “orderly”
bankruptcy. Bondholders will discover
burden-sharing. Debt relief will be enforced, either by
interest holidays or haircuts on the value of the bonds.
Investors will pay the price for failing to grasp the
mechanical and obvious point that currency unions do not
eliminate risk: they switch it from exchange risk to
default risk.
“We must keep in mind the feelings of our people, who
have a justified desire to see that private investors are
also on the hook, and not just taxpayers,” said German
Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Or in the words of Bundesbank chief Axel Weber: “Next
time there is a problem, (bondholders) should be part of
the solution rather than part of the problem. So far the
only ones who have paid for the solution are the
taxpayers.”
These were the terms imposed by Germany at Friday’s EU
summit as the Quid Pro Quo for the creation of a permanent
rescue fund in 2013. A treaty change will be rammed
through under Article 48 of the Lisbon Treaty, a trick
that circumvents the need for full ratification.
Eurosceptics can feel vindicated in warning this
“escalator” clause would soon be exploited for unchecked
treaty-creep.
Mrs Merkel needs a treaty change to prevent the German
constitutional court from blocking the bail-out fund as a
breach of the EU law, and a treaty change is what she will
get. “This will strengthen my position with the Karlsruhe
court,” she admitted openly
If you strip out the humbug,
the Greek package allows banks and funds to shift roughly
€150bn of liabilities onto EU governments, or the European
Central Bank, or the IMF. Greek citizens are being
subjected to the full pain of austerity under false
pretences, without being offered the cure of debt relief.
An ominous pattern has emerged across much of the
eurozone periphery: tax revenue keeps falling short of
what was hoped. Austerity measures are eating deeper into
the economy than expected, forcing further fiscal cuts. It
goes too far to call this a self-feeding spiral, but such
policies test political patience to snapping point.
|
FRANCE
Cameron and Sarkozy pursue entente cordiale
FT
At the same time, tomorrow’s
agreement on defence co-operation is a significant
achievement for both leaders which will see the two
countries co-operating on the deployment of aircraft
carriers and other equipment in the years ahead.
“Right from the start, Sarkozy said the defence
relationship must be without taboos,” says a senior French
official. “Cameron was very receptive to that and said we
have to try and do something at this summit that is
historic.
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BRAZIL
Rousseff Elected Brazil's First Female President,
Defeating Serra BL
Dilma Rousseff said her main goal
is to eradicate poverty in Brazil while maintaining a lid
on spending after being elected the country’s first female
president.
|
JAPAN
Japan data fuel fear of return to recession
FT
The Nomura Japan manufacturing
purchasing managers’ index, which was released on Friday,
fell to 47.2 from 49.5, the second monthly contraction in
a row, indicating that
slowing economic conditions and the strong yen are
hurting most Japanese manufacturers.
|
Sino-Japan dispute overshadows summit
FT
China plans manned space station by 2020
FT
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time (et) |
report |
period |
Actual |
Consensus forecast |
previous |
MONDAY, Nov. 1 |
8:30 am |
Personal incomes |
Sept. |
|
0.1% |
0.5% |
8:30 am |
Consumer spending |
Sept. |
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0.3% |
0.4% |
8:30 am |
Core PCE price index |
Sept. |
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0.0% |
0.1% |
10 am |
ISM |
Oct. |
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54.0% |
54.4% |
10 am |
Construction spending |
Sept. |
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-0.5% |
0.4% |
American economy exhibits unhealthy zombie look Hutchison
The American economy is
exhibiting an unhealthy zombie glow. Third-quarter GDP
numbers, released just before the Halloween weekend,
suggest worrisome imbalances rising again. The gain in
real GDP was about equal to the growth in net imports and
exceeded by the rise in inventories. Consumption was solid
but government spending rose sharply as the savings rate
fell. It’s not an altogether pretty picture.
In a well-balanced economy, consumption grows in tandem
with overall GDP, with savings adequate to finance
investment. Moreover, government spending growth is
restrained, while inventories grow only as fast as
consumption and the balance of payments deficit remains
under control.
That’s not what the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s
advance GDP report showed. Inventory growth was $116
billion compared to overall GDP’s real growth of $66
billion. In other words, the country is producing more
stuff, but letting more of it pile up. Real final sales
grew only 0.6 percent, and that growth was exceeded by a
surge in imports.
Consumption growth was moderate, and while fixed
investment grew marginally it was held down by a fall in
housing investment after the April end of the home-buyer
subsidies. In the meantime government spending grew
rapidly, worsening an already unsustainable deficit, while
the already inadequate savings rate declined.
America’s economic imbalances stem from over-expansive
monetary and fiscal policies. With real interest rates
negative and the government spending more than it takes
in, savings are discouraged, imports surge and both raw
and finished goods are stockpiled as commodity prices
surge. Further quantitative easing by the Fed next week
may exacerbate the problem.
Sure, some growth is better than a contraction. But the
imbalances of inadequate savings, excessive imports and
rising budget deficit all worsened in the quarter, and
were joined by a bloating of inventories. That doesn’t
signify an economy in good health and ripe for stock
market investment. Rather it suggests that those
entrusting their savings to the U.S. economy will find
them eaten by the zombie lurking inside this feeble
recovery.
|
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Paper weightBuyers fear growing bond bubble
FT
4- STATE
& LOCAL GOVERNMENT |
5-
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
8-
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II |
Snow: Fix Housing or America Will Need Another Bailout
FOX News
Debtors repent by walking away, not by paying of
Washington Times
The States Take On Foreclosures NYT (Nocera)
Australians swoop in on U.S. foreclosures CNN
10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
|
11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS
|
White-collar recession, blue-collar depression
MW
The disparity between white-collar and blue-collar unemployment
is stunning: 4.5% among college graduates versus 10.8% for those
with a high-school diploma, and 14.3% for those without one.
Read why economist Gary Shilling thinks it’s not a real recovery
on MoneyShow.com.
The likely reason is a precipitate decline in U.S.-based
manufacturing employment. The United States has been losing those
jobs for years, but the pace of the decline picked up steeply in
the past decade and during the recession.
From its peak of 19.5 million in 1979, manufacturing
employment declined, on average, by about 1.5 million jobs a
decade until 2001. Then it fell off a cliff: America lost 2.5
million manufacturing jobs from 2001 to 2007 and almost that much
again during the latest recession.
So, nearly 5 million American manufacturing jobs have
disappeared since 2001, an astonishing 29% plunge in less than 10
years. The United States has lost more than 42,000 factories
during that time.
“During the late 1990s, productivity growth in … manufacturing
accelerated … averaging 4.1% annually over the 1995–2007 period,”
the Congressional Budget Office reported. “As a result,
productivity in manufacturing has risen by about one-third since
2000.”
|
13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE |
14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES |

China PMI jumps as rest of Asia slows FT
China’s manufacturers sharply increased
output in October, powered largely by rising domestic demand and
defying a widespread slowdown in the rest of Asia.
The official purchasing managers' index released by the China
Federation of Logistics and Purchasing rose to 54.7 from 53.8 in
September, indicating strong growth in spite of Beijing’s efforts
to slow the economy to avoid asset bubbles. HSBC said the rate of
expansion in new business for Chinese manufacturing companies was
at a six-month high, in spite of a relatively small increase in
export orders, suggesting that growth was firmly centred on the
domestic market.
The industrial slowdown in Asia outside China suggests that
economic growth is decelerating from the very high rates of
expansion achieved after the global crisis.
ASIA
Gross domestic product for the region excluding Japan soared by
9 per cent between April 2009 and June this year, largely on the
back of a 25 per cent rise in industrial production over the same
period. That reflected an increase in domestic consumption that
more than compensated for a fall in exports to the western
advanced economies.
The first clear sign that Asia’s overall economic growth may be
slowing came in Singapore in October, where preliminary GDP
figures for the third quarter showed a contraction of 19.8 per
cent, quarter on quarter, seasonally adjusted, which was much
bigger than consensus forecasts.
That compared with growth of 24 per cent on the same basis in
the second quarter, and 45.7 per cent in the first. Wealthy
Singapore is often a bellwether for Asia. It was the first Asian
country to move into recession when the crisis hit home in 2008,
and the first to start growing again a year ago.
Calculations by Credit Suisse, the investment bank, suggest
that industrial production growth in Asia excluding Japan and
China may fall as low as 3.5 per cent by January, compared with a
long-term average of 6.1 per cent.
Underlying the production slowdown is a steady decline in PMI
indices, which track a range of indicators such as business
confidence, prices and new orders. Leading indicators from
Singapore and Australia indicate a contraction in October, with
even fast-growing India expected to report a deceleration.
In spite of the manufacturing slowdown in many countries, no
one is predicting a return to recession. The Asian Development
Bank has upgraded its 2010 GDP growth forecast for Asia excluding
Japan to 8.2 per cent from 7.5 per cent, with growth of 7.3 per
cent in 2011.
|
Swiss watch industry rides China wave MW
19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES |
Vote Hints at Historic Political Volatility
WSJ
The U.S. could be caught in a cycle of
political volatility witnessed only four times in the past
century, almost all during war or economic unease.
|
Scott Rasmussen- A Vote Against Dems, Not for the GOP
WSJ
Concentrated Wealth and the Purchase of Political Power:
Democracy's Death Spiral Smith
OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE
24-RETAIL SALES
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

32-US STOCK
MARKET VALUATIONS
GENERAL INTEREST
Be Careful What You Wish For Mauldin
So Now What? Schwab Market Perspective
Just the Facts Noland
The not-so-scary income trust conversion G&M
I Hear America Whining? Zip It, Pal WSJ
Avoid the college bubble WP
Was France at fault for The Great Depression?
Reuters
FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLSFLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS
MARKET WARNINGS
Investors increase exposure to equities FT
Stocks Face Dark Side of Gridlock in Capital WSJ
Investors have bid up shares in
anticipation of Tuesday's U.S. election and Wednesday's expected
Fed announcement of new quantitative easing. But now that the
moment is upon us, Wall Street is worried that it overdid things.
|
U.S. Money Managers Turn Bullish on Stocks, Barron's `Big Money' Poll Says
BL
`Toxic' Orders Can Predict Likelihood of Stock Market Crashes, Study Says
BL
Favorable 6-Month Seasonality Period Begins Swenlin
CURRENCY WARS
Currency Swings Show G-20 Faith Fading as Korea Eyes Controls BL
Traders are losing confidence in the
Group of 20 finance officials’ pledge to avoid foreign-exchange
manipulation less than a week after the leaders vowed to stop
devaluing currencies to prop up their economies.
Volatility among Group of Seven currencies rose to about the
highest level in four months since the G-20 meeting ended on Oct.
23, according to the
JPMorgan G-7 Volatility Index. Euro- dollar fluctuations
jumped 30 percent since Sept. 20, a day before Federal Reserve
policy makers said they were prepared to buy bonds and pump more
money into the financial system, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
While G-20 nations committed to refrain from “competitive
devaluation,” officials from South Korea and South Africa said
last week that they may consider currency controls. The reliance
on intervention underscores the challenges finance officials face
to keep their economies on track after injecting more than $2
trillion to spark growth following the worst financial crisis
since the Great Depression.
“Volatility is the price of uncertainty,” said
Richard Benson, an executive director in London at Millennium
Asset Management, who oversees $14 billion of currency funds.
“‘Volatility’s current elevated level is a function of the
currency war issue.”
|
China could afford 3-5% yuan rise a year China Daily
G20: In Need of an Intervention BM
$US sinks to 15-year low versus yen Dow Jones
Q3 EARNINGS
Growth in Profit, But Concerns Over Sales WSJ

MARKET &
GOLD MANIPULATION
Money, Bubbles and Ersatzgold Morgan Stanley
AUDIO / VIDEO
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
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BUY ANY BOOK
GET 2 MONTH SUBSCRIPTION TO MONTHLY
MARKET COMMENTARY |
BOOKSTORE
PROMOTION DETAILS |
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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and
does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion
only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as
recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or
any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his
statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own
credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a
qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory
agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment
decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your
own before making important investment commitments.ont>
© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information
herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he
does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements,
website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the
purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr.
Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in
securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr.
Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or
future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should
consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon
statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or
recommendation you receive from him.
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READING
THE RIGHT BOOKS? NO TIME?
WE HAVE IT ANALYZED
& INCLUDED IN OUR LATEST RESEARCH PAPERS!
ACCEPTING
PRE-ORDERS
TIPPING POINTS |
1-SOVEREIGN DEBT &
CREDIT CRISIS |
2-EU BANKING CRISIS |
3-BOND BUBBLE |
4-STATE & LOCAL
GOVERNMENT |
5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
6-BANKING CRISIS II |
7-RISK REVERSAL |
|
8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE -
PHASE II |
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL
CRISIS PROGRAM |
11-PENSION CRISIS |
12-CHRONIC
UNEMPLOYMENT |
13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP
INSUR. |
14-CORPORATE
BANKRUPTCY |
|
15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II |
16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES |
17-CHINA BUBBLE |
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS |
|
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES |
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL |
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY. |
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE |
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS |
24-RETAIL SALES |
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS |
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP |
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST |
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS |
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT |
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES |
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES |
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS |
33-PANDEMIC |
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY |
35-TERRORIST EVENT |
36-NATURAL DISASTER |

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's
Plunder! Mish
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