Gordon T Long -Tipping Points

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Progress to fix European debt crisis slows - U.S. official Reuters X

Merkel warns on protectionism FT X

Cameron seeks to double trade with China FT X

Decline in house prices gathers pace FT X

Canadian mortgage debt tops $1-trillion for first time G&M X

Irish banks sink as EU eyes nation's survival plan AP X

If you thought the bank bailout was bad, wait until... Irish Times X

Irish Fight to End Bond `Buyers Strike' as EU Examines Budget Bloomberg X

Irish Debt Woes Revive Concern About Europe NY Times X

Church in Ireland suffered huge losses in bank crisis Irish Central X

USA

Q3 Report on Household Debt and Credit Shows Continued Decline in Consumer Debt NYFRB X

'Huge' Bubble Brewing in Bond Market CNBC X

Paying the Lowest Yield on Company Debt NY Times X

Number of the Week: $10.2 Trillion in Global Borrowing WSJ X

Way Too Big To Fail New Republic X

Citigroup debt funds probed by SEC WSJ X

Junk-Bond Sellers Find Risk Too High WSJ X

ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Ambac files for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 AP X

The Chinese will have to change their tune eventually Bootle X

Shortage of diesel expected to continue in cities Shanghai Daily X

New Push to Ban Earmarks in Senate WSJ X

Obama sidesteps question on Fed monetary policy Reuters X

Bush steps out of shadows to tell it his way in memoir FT X

OBAMA'S ASIAN STATE VISITS & SUMMITS

Obama calls for top India role at UN FT X

Obama to push greater US ties with Indonesia FT X

Obama Returns to Indonesia to Chase Trade, Not Chickens Bloomberg X

Stephens- Obama's Best Speech WSJ X

BP OIL

BP cleared of cutting corners

CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY

The New Malaise and How to End It Warsh

Fed Backlash Grows WSJ

Bubble, Crash, Bubble, Crash, Bubble... Hussman

America will survive the errors of Ben Bernanke's trigger-happy Federal Reserve Prichard

Helicopter Ben to the rescue MW

Dependency, The Fed and the Market Smith

Alan Reynolds- Ben Bernanke's Impossible Dream WSJ WSJ

GENERAL INTEREST

CEOs Most Optimistic on U.S. Profits in Bull Signal for S&P 500 Bloomberg

Buffett's Buyout Search Aided by Biggest Cash Hoard Since 2008 Bloomberg

MARKET WARNINGS

'Dumb money' returns to stocks WSJ

Be afraid Price

Commodity funds 'may be next financial bubble' Telegraph

G20 MEETING

China's stiff upper hand Wash. Post.

G-20 Spat Risk Eases as U.S. Eschews Pushing Targets Bloomberg

The G20 must look beyond Bretton Woods FT

Zoellick seeks new gold standard debate - report Reuters

Zoellick's call on gold standard dismissed FT

APEC debates becoming body that can forge FTA AP

Gideon RachmanThe G20�s seven pillars of friction FT

Keep the faith- the G20 can stop the war FT

CURRENCY WARS

China central bank chief: Ready for QE2 hot money Caixin

World Bank Says Asia May Need Capital Controls to Curb Bubbles Bloomberg

China to Tighten Control on Inflows of Overseas Funds Bloomberg

Straight out of Mad Men: US markets import protection as export promotion VOX

US easing ignites forex war fears Standard

Hong Kong markets under QE2 pressure MW

Bernanke�s inflationary binge could spark a currency war and ruin the dollar Jackson

Our Banana Republic Kristof

The Search for a New Currency System WSJ

Q3 EARNINGS

Barclays� third-quarter profit tumbles FT

Barclays Profit Declines 76% as Investment Bank Posts Loss Bloomberg

Commerzbank falls short in third quarter FT

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

Comex Gold Ends Higher, Hits Fresh All-Time High Kitco

World Bank Chief Sparks Gold Standard Debate FT

Not just inflation fears boosting gold Brimelow

Gold and silver on a tear CNN

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Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

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COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a �strong US$�. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into. A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

Don�t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue � a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled �Extend & Pretend� in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled �Extend & Pretend� detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don�t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an �undervalued Yuan� as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres READ MORE

	BRIEFS
Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy

READER ROADMAP - 2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS

3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

6-BANKING CRISIS II

7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.

14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge

11-09-10

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

IRAN

ISREAL

KOREA

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

SOVEREIGNS

Progress to fix European debt crisis slows - U.S. official Reuters
GREECE

SPAIN

GERMANY
Merkel warns on protectionism FT

Chancellor urges steps to ensure �genuinely free trade�

FRANCE

UK
Cameron seeks to double trade with China FT
Decline in house prices gathers pace FT

Increasing number of real-estate professionals reporting falling prices

CANADA
Canadian mortgage debt tops $1-trillion for first time G&M
IRELAND
Irish banks sink as EU eyes nation's survival plan AP
If you thought the bank bailout was bad, wait until... Irish Times

Ireland is effectively insolvent � the next crisis will be mass mortgage default

Irish Fight to End Bond `Buyers Strike' as EU Examines Budget BL
Irish Debt Woes Revive Concern About Europe NYT
Church in Ireland suffered huge losses in bank crisis Irish Central
JAPAN

USA

time (et) report period Actual Consensus
forecast previous

Tuesday, Nov. 9
7:30 am	NFIB small business index	Oct.	91.7	N/A	89.0
10 am	Job openings	Sept.	2.93 million	N/A	3.09 mln
10 am	Wholesale inventories	Sept.	1.5%	N/A	1.2%

Q3 Report on Household Debt and Credit Shows Continued Decline in Consumer Debt FRBNY

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

3- BOND BUBBLE

'Huge' Bubble Brewing in Bond Market CNBC

Paying the Lowest Yield on Company Debt NYT

Coke and Colgate almost make Wal-Mart, which borrowed at 1.5 percent, look as though it is overpaying

Number of the Week: $10.2 Trillion in Global Borrowing WSJ

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

6-BANKING CRISIS II

Way Too Big To Fail New Republic

Financial reform has a terrifying loophole�and the banks found it.

Citigroup debt funds probed by SEC WSJ

7- RISK REVERSAL

Junk-Bond Sellers Find Risk Too High WSJ

A growing number of hedge funds and other professional investors are getting out of junk bonds and buying assets like mortgage debt and stocks instead.

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS

12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

Ambac files for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 AP

17- CHINA BUBBLE

The Chinese will have to change their tune eventually Bootle

Shortage of diesel expected to continue in cities Shanghai Daily

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

New Push to Ban Earmarks in Senate WSJ

Lawmakers aligned with the tea party are moving quickly to show their strength by trying to ban budget earmarking in the Senate, where support is still strong for the practice critics deride as pork-barrel spending.

Obama sidesteps question on Fed monetary policy Reuters
The Fed "doesn't take orders from the White House�

Bush steps out of shadows to tell it his way in memoir FT

�No one was more shocked or angry than I was when we didn�t find [Iraq�s] weapons�

OBAMA'S ASIAN STATE VISITS & SUMMITS

Obama calls for top India role at UN FT

Dramatic finale to US three-day diplomatic charm offensive

Obama to push greater US ties with Indonesia FT

Obama Returns to Indonesia to Chase Trade, Not Chickens BL

Stephens- Obama's Best Speech WSJ

OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

24-RETAIL SALES

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

Not Supported

BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

BP cleared of cutting corners FT
No compromises on Gulf of Mexico safety

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

The New Malaise and How to End It Wall Street Journal - Kevin M. Warsh - Bio

Attacks US Fiscal Policy

Policy makers should be skeptical of the long-term benefits of temporary fixes to do the hard work of resurrecting the world's great economic power. Since early 2008, the fiscal authorities have sought to fill the hole left by the falloff in demand through:

1- large, temporary stimulus

2- checks in the mail to spur consumption,

3- temporary housing rebates to raise demand,

4- one-time cash-for-clunkers to move inventory, and

5- temporary business tax credits to spur investment.

Pro-growth policies include:

1- Reform of the tax code to make it simpler, more transparent and more conducive to long-term investment.

2- These policies also include real regulatory reform so that firms�financial and otherwise�know the rules, and then succeed or fail. Regulators should be hostile to rent-seeking by the established, and hospitable to the companies whose names we do not know.

3- Finally, the creep of trade protectionism is anathema to pro-growth policies. The U.S. should signal to the world that it is ready to resume leadership on trade.

Fed Backlash Grows WSJ

Global controversy mounted over the Fed's decision to pump billions of dollars into the U.S. economy, with President Barack Obama defending the move as China, Russia and the euro zone added to a chorus of criticism.

Bubble, Crash, Bubble, Crash, Bubble... Hussman

�These are undoubtedly among the most ignorant remarks ever made by a central banker.�

America will survive the errors of Ben Bernanke's trigger-happy Federal Reserve Pritchard

The storm will blow over just as it did after President Nixon closed the gold window in 1971, smashed the Bretton Woods system, and let the dollar go to hell.

Helicopter Ben to the rescue MW

Dependency, The Fed and the Market Smith

Alan Reynolds- Ben Bernanke's Impossible Dream WSJ

GENERAL INTEREST
CEOs Most Optimistic on U.S. Profits in Bull Signal for S&P 500 BL

Buffett's Buyout Search Aided by Biggest Cash Hoard Since 2008 BL

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

MARKET WARNINGS
'Dumb money' returns to stocks WSJ

Be afraid Price

Commodity funds 'may be next financial bubble' Telegraph

G20 MEETING
China's stiff upper hand WP

G-20 Spat Risk Eases as U.S. Eschews Pushing Targets BL

The G20 must look beyond Bretton Woods By Robert Zoellick (Complete via Google)

Zoellick seeks new gold standard debate - report Reuters

Zoellick's call on gold standard dismissed FT

APEC debates becoming body that can forge FTA AP

Gideon RachmanThe G20�s seven pillars of friction FT

Keep the faith- the G20 can stop the war FT

CURRENCY WARS
China central bank chief: Ready for QE2 hot money Caixin

�We will collect and put this money into a pool so that it will not affect the economy�

World Bank Says Asia May Need Capital Controls to Curb Bubbles BL
China to Tighten Control on Inflows of Overseas Funds BL
Straight out of Mad Men: US markets import protection as export promotion VOX
US easing ignites forex war fears Standard
Hong Kong markets under QE2 pressure MW
Bernanke�s inflationary binge could spark a currency war and ruin the dollar Jackson

Our Banana Republic Kristof

The Search for a New Currency System WSJ

Q3 EARNINGS
Barclays� third-quarter profit tumbles FT

Barclays Profit Declines 76% as Investment Bank Posts Loss BL

Barclays Plc, Britain�s third-largest bank, said quarterly profit declined 76 percent as the investment banking unit run by Chief Executive Officer-designate Robert Diamond posted a loss on falling revenue and the revaluation of debt.

Commerzbank falls short in third quarter FT

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION
Comex Gold Ends Higher, Hits Fresh All-Time High Kitco

World Bank Chief Sparks Gold Standard Debate FT

Not just inflation fears boosting gold Brimelow

Gold and silver on a tear CNN
AUDIO / VIDEO

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

"It could unfold very, very quickly. Because deflation is a swing of poverty feedback, it can take awhile to build up. If you try to explain to people what's coming, because it doesn't happen instantly, they tend to go back to sleep. The thing they need to understand, however, is that when it does hit a tipping point, a kind of critical mass, then it can unfold exceptionally quickly. Then it's very much like having the rug pulled out from under your feet. So I tell people all the time, prepare now because it's better to be two years too early than five minutes too late. You can't play with this sort of thing. In September, 2008, we came within a few hours of the banking system seizing up, and that could easily happen again. People wouldn't get a lot of notice. For anyone who's not in the meeting room-it will be too late by the time they find out. My worry is that if there are an enormous number of people who just had the rug pulled out from under their feet, they're going to run around like headless chickens, and the human over-reaction to events will be really responsible for a large percentage of the impact. �

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

� Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

CURRENT TIPPING POINTS

TODAY'S NEWS

TUESDAY

11-09-10

NOVEMBER

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ARCHIVAL

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS

3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

6-BANKING CRISIS II

7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.

14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES

17-CHINA BUBBLE

18-INTEREST PAYMENTS

19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL

21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.

22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE

23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS

24-RETAIL SALES

25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST

28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS

29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT

30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

33-PANDEMIC

34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY

35-TERRORIST EVENT

36-NATURAL DISASTER

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