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Published November 2009
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Last Update:
11/25/2010 01:18 PM
SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30
AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
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Why North Korea Attacked |
BI |
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North Korea Nuclear Fears Grow |
WSJ |
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North Korea Shells South Korea Island |
WSJ |
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S. Korea Scrambles Jets, Returns Fire After North Shells
Island |
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PORTUGAL / SPAIN |
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Portugal next as EMU's Máquina Infernal keeps ticking |
Pritchard |
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CDS chart of the day, Portugal edition |
Salmon |
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Spain and Portugal reject talk of bail-outs |
FT |
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After Ireland, spotlight on Portugal, Spain |
MW |
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If Portugal is small enough to rescue, Spain may be "too
big to save" |
Independ. |
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IRELAND |
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Deal will have conditions |
RTE Ireland |
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Public and private in the Ireland bailout |
FT |
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Irish PM defiant as coalition cracks |
FT |
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Q+A: How will Ireland's bailout work? |
Reuters |
X |
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Ireland Is Second Euro Nation to Seek Aid as Banks Wobble |
Bloomberg |
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Irish Banks Need $6.8 Billion in Cash Immediately, Analysts Say |
Bloomberg |
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Anglo
Irish chairman says more nationalisations likely |
Reuters |
X |
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Ireland’s Lehman moment |
Elliott |
X |
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Ireland’s Paradise Lost |
NY Times |
X |
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Ireland's just an inevitable victim of the euro project |
Bootle |
X |
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USA |
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Economy in
U.S. Grew 2.5% in Third Quarter, Revised From 2% |
Bloomberg |
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Sales of Existing Houses Fell More Than Forecast in October |
Bloomberg |
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Record U.S. Exports Reflect Midwest Boom With 3.7% Unemployment |
Bloomberg |
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Incoming Tea Party Republicans Will Go to the Mats on the
Debt Limit Comments Feed |
FDL |
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The Beginning Of The Ponzi End- As Of Today, The Biggest
Holder Of US Debt Is Ben Bernanke |
ZH |
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US banks face $100bn Basel III shortfall |
FT |
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Australian Housing Slump Gathers Pace |
Money Morning |
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ARTICLE |
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Lack of Hiring to Restrain U.S. Economy in 2011, Survey Shows |
Bloomberg |
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X |
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China
Set to Continue Raising Rates: Experts |
CNBC |
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China
swaps at 2-year high, more tightening seen |
Reuters |
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Property market set to make soft landing: Report |
China Daily |
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Who needs who? America and China must avoid making past mistakes again |
King |
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Our
burgeoning budget and the politics of avoidance |
Samuelson |
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America's budget deficit: Speak softly and carry a big chainsaw
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Economist |
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CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY |
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Fed minutes: Officials clashed over bond purchases |
AP |
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Outside the Oval / The Case Against the Fed |
Hussman |
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The Fed v. inflationistas: Who’s right? |
G&M |
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Michael Dell Shows Why Ben Bernanke Is Impotent |
Pesek |
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I'd Sign Any Letter to Avert Inflation Crisis |
Hassett |
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Economists worried about U.S. inflation: survey |
Reuters |
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'Credibility of the Fed' Under Historic Attack: Mishkin |
CNBC |
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GENERAL INTEREST |
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For
Rome to prosper it must first burn |
Fabius Maximus |
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“No
problem” |
Smith |
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The
Rising Frustration with the Debt Crisis |
Armstrong |
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Data
Birth |
Economist |
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Why
Your Stock Portfolio Is Acting Like a Commodity Basket |
WSJ |
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The One Chart That Explains America's Recession-Recovery
Paradox |
Smith |
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MARKET WARNINGS |
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Don't Take Your Eye Off The Ball Here: Keep Watching The
Shanghai/Hong Kong Crash |
BI |
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Back
to Overbought |
BeSpoke |
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Insider Selling To Buying Ratio Approaches Five Digits, Hits
Record 8,280x In Week Ending November 19 |
ZH |
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CURRENCY WARS |
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China Inflation May Be Too Hot for Controls Amid Cash Glut |
Bloomberg |
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Q3
EARNINGS |
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HP sales climb 8% in fourth quarter |
FT |
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MARKET
& GOLD MANIPULATION |
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Soros
Gold Bubble Expanding as ETPs Hold 9 Years of U.S. Output |
Bloomberg |
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VIDEO
TO WATCH |
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Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with
highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.
|
LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS |
RSS
 |
COMMENTARY for all articles by
Gordon T Long
CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!
In
September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy
decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court
with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split
them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set
the world on the path to global currency wars.
By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the
US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an
uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian
economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and
money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the
expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting
on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile
with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.
Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become
casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary
responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership
placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained
destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way
out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our
political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary
responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to
their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at
certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a
needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense
adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of
success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into. A future
that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come.
READ MORE |
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CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy
The
critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective
public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic
Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening
salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.
Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political
distraction from the real issue – a failure
of US policy leadership. In my
opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong!
I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend
& Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian
policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored
a
full series of articles from January through August in a broadly
published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted
failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has
happened was not fully predictable!
Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more
money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted
QE II was inevitable in
March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets
with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term
elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an
“undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is
the last bastion of scoundres
READ MORE
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READER ROADMAP
- 2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to
positioning COMMENTARY
|
|
1
1-SOVEREIGN DEBT |
2-EU BANKING CRISIS |
3-BOND BUBBLE |
4-STATE &
LOCAL GOVERNMENT |
5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
6-BANKING CRISIS II |
7-RISK REVERSAL |
|
8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE -
PHASE II |
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL
CRISIS PROGRAM |
11-PENSION CRISIS |
12-CHRONIC
UNEMPLOYMENT |
13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP
INSUR. |
14-CORPORATE
BANKRUPTCY |
|
TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE |
RED ALERT |
AMBER ALERT |
ACTIVITY |
MONITOR |
|

Click to Enlarge

|
11-23-10
GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN
KOREA
Below you can find the Yeonpyeongdo Islands, the source of
artillery fire. It's the small chain labeled 3 (via
Wikipedia).
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Why North Korea Attacked BI
North Korea's reason for going on the offensive seems to be
anger over a military drill it said was "simulating an invasion of
the North," according to the
NYT.
The military drill, called Safeguarding The Nation, is a annual
exercise involving 70,000 troops along with some American forces.
60-70 houses on the island were destroyed at the military facility
and
at least two Korean soldiers was killed.
At first glance, this bears much in common with the sinking of
the Cheonan warship last May, which everyone short of China blamed
on North Korea. In that attack and the weeks that followed,
Pyongyang showed itself ready to respond to any and all
militaristic gestures. North Korea may have been emboldened
after getting away scot free.
What else do we know?
Last weekend a
uranium enrichment facility was discovered in the North,
sparking concern over a nuclear threat
North Korea is also in the midst of a change of power, as
Kim Jong un replaces father Kim Jong il. Geopolitical analysts
have warned of an internal power struggle that may result.
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North Korea Nuclear Fears Grow
WSJ
North Korea Shells South Korea Island WSJ
S. Korea Scrambles Jets, Returns Fire After North Shells Island BL
South Korea scrambled fighter jets and returned fire after
North Korea lobbed dozens of shells into its waters and an island,
injuring 14 soldiers according to the government and YTN reports.
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1-
SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS |
SPAIN/PORTUGAL
Portugal next as EMU's Máquina Infernal keeps ticking
Pritchard
Portugal will have a current account deficit of 10.3pc
of GDP this year, 8.8pc in 2011, and 8.0pc in 2012,
according to the OECD. That is to say, Portugal will be
unable to pay its way in the world by a huge margin even
after draconian austerity.
Portugal has the eurozone’s most rigid labour markets,
and that social transfer costs have risen to 22pc of GDP
from 18.5pc in 2005. Productivity is stuck at 64pc of the
eurozone average, unchanged since the early 1990s. The
promised EMU catch-up effect never occurred.
The origins of this crisis go back to
Portugal’s fateful decision to push for euro membership at
least 20 years before it was ready. Lisbon then failed to
tighten fiscal and credit policy enough to offset a fall
in interest rates from 16pc to 3pc as Portugal prepared to
join in the 1990s – if it is possible to offset monetary
error on such a scale.
Portugal saw its competitiveness destroyed by the boom,
and has never been able to get it back. The country has
been in perma-slump ever since with a Teutonic currency
that raises the bar ever higher.
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CDS chart of the day, Portugal edition
Salmon
The CDS curve for Portugal has changed this year from a
normal slope (the black line), to a an inverted slope
(green line), meaning imminent default, to the current
square-root shaped slope (the red line).
What's it mean? It means the market is confident Europe
can prevent a Portugal default... for now. But all it will
succeed in doing is kick the can down the road and push a
default a few years back.
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Spain and Portugal reject talk of bail-outs
FT
After Ireland, spotlight on Portugal, Spain
MW
Lisbon vulnerable to vigilantes,
but Madrid may put up a fight |
If Portugal is small enough to rescue, Spain may be "too
big to save"
Independent
IRELAND
Deal will have conditions RTE Ireland
The financial rescue package is estimated to be worth
in the region of €80-90 billion and its terms will be
negotiated over the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, RTÉ News understands that the Minister for
Finance Brian Lenihan thanked the German and French
finance ministers for softening their
stance on Ireland's low rate of corporate tax during last
night's teleconference between euro zone finance ministers
which approved Ireland's request for a bail-out.
The €15 billion adjustment will consist of €10 billion
of spending cuts and €5 billion of tax increases. Mr
Lenihan told RTÉ this morning that there was no question
of changing the 2011 Budget, which will frontload much of
the cuts.
European Commissioner for
Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn this morning
repeated his earlier comments that Ireland would no longer
be a low tax economy.
The Government's plan would meet the target of reducing
the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2014.
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Public and private in the Ireland bailout
FT
From a fundamental macro perspective, we would stress
that Ireland and Greece are in a very different solvency
boat to Portugal and Spain.
|
Irish PM defiant as coalition cracks FT
Anger grows at EU-IMF plan as contagion fears spread
Q+A: How will Ireland's bailout work?
Reuters
Ireland Is Second Euro Nation to Seek Aid as Banks Wobble
BL
Irish Banks Need $6.8 Billion in Cash Immediately, Analysts Say
BL
Anglo
Irish chairman says more nationalisations likely Reuters
Ireland’s Lehman moment
Elliott
Ireland’s Paradise Lost
NYT
Ireland's just an inevitable victim of the euro project
Bootle
JAPAN |
The Beginning Of The Ponzi End- As Of Today, The Biggest Holder Of
US Debt Is Ben Bernanke ZH
Well, folks, it's official - mark November 22, 2021 in your
calendars - today is the day the Ponzi starts in earnest. With
today's
$8.3 billion POMO monetization, the Fed's official
holdings of US Treasury securities now amount to $891.3 billion,
which is higher than the second largest holder of US debt: China,
which as of September 30 held $884 billion, and Japan, with $864
billion. The purists will claim that the TIC data is as
of September 30, and that as the weekly custodial account shows
UST buying continues the data is likely not correct. They will be
wrong: with the Fed now buying about $30 billion per week, or
about $120 billion per month, for the foreseeable future and
beyond, it would mean that China would need to buy a comparable
amount to be in the standing. It won't. In other words, the Ponzi
operation is now complete, and the Fed's monetization of US debt
has made it not only the largest holder of such debt, but made
external funding checks and balances in the guise of indirect
auction bidding, irrelevant. For what tends to happen next in
comparable case studies, please read the
Dying of Money. And congratulations to China for finally not
being the one having the most to lose on a DV01 basis on that day
when the inevitable surge in interest rates finally happens. That
honor is now strictly reserved for America's taxpayers.
|
4- STATE
& LOCAL GOVERNMENT |
5-
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
US banks face $100bn Basel III shortfall
FT
8-
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II |
Australian Housing Slump Gathers Pace
Money Morning
10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
|
11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS
|
Lack of Hiring to Restrain U.S. Economy in 2011, Survey Shows BL
13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE |
14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES |
China
Set to Continue Raising Rates: Experts
CNBC
Caixin
China
swaps at 2-year high, more tightening seen
Reuters
Property market set to make soft landing: Report
China Daily
Who needs who? America and China must avoid making past mistakes again
King
19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES |
Our
burgeoning budget and the politics of avoidance
Samuelson
America's budget deficit: Speak softly and carry a big chainsaw
Economist
OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE
24-RETAIL SALES
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK
MARKET VALUATIONS
GENERAL INTEREST
For
Rome to prosper it must first burn
Fabius Maximus
“No
problem”
Smith
The
Rising Frustration with the Debt Crisis
Armstrong
Data
Birth
Economist
Why
Your Stock Portfolio Is Acting Like a Commodity Basket
WSJ
The One Chart That Explains America's Recession-Recovery Paradox
Smith
The top 20% are prospering and
spending money; the bottom 80% are not, but thanks to vast wealth
disparity, the top slice of households can keep consumer spending
aloft. This provides an illusion of "recovery" that masks the
insecurity and decline of the bottom 80%.
There is statistical and
anecdotal evidence supporting both a "we never left recession" and
"the economy is recovering" interpretation. The key to making
sense of the conflicting data is to understand that there are Two
Americas.
Roughly speaking, we can divide the U.S.
economy into
1- "Wall Street"--the financialized part
of the economy which encompasses the FIRE (finance, insurance and
real estate) economy and its bloated partner in predation, the
Federal government--and
2- "Main Street," the looted, overtaxed
remainder of the "real economy" which isn't a Federally supported
corporate cartel (i.e. the military-industrial sector, the
"healthcare"/sickcare sector, Big Agribusiness, etc.). "Main
Street" -- is small business, entrepreneurs, shopkeepers,
small property owners (independent motels, vineyards, truck farms,
etc.) and local service providers (dentists, accountants, etc.).
This class of small business and their employees is in decline:
Few Businesses Sprout, With Even Fewer Jobs (WSJ.com)
Needless to say, the
Federal/financialized/corporate cartel tranch of the economy is
doing very, very well, thank you. The number of Federal
employees pulling down $150,000 annually is skyrocketing, hundreds
of billions in revenues slosh into National Security and sickcare
cartels, and Wall Street bonuses are in the tens of billions.
A thin, overhyped tranch of the tech
economy is also doing well--Google employees just got a 10% raise,
for example--but this overhyped tranch includes a razor-thin share
of the 130 million person U.S. workforce. Google's global
workforce is about 23,000, Twitter has a staff of roughly 300 and
Facebook employs about 1,500 people.
There are two Americas in terms
of wealth and income:
1- In terms of income, the top 10% earn
about half the total income, and in wealth,
2- the top 5% own roughly 70% of all
financial wealth.
3- The top 5% of Americans by income are
responsible for 37% of all consumer spending-- about the same as
the entire bottom 80% by income (39.5%).
4- the top 1% of Americans received
two-thirds of the gain in national income from 2002 to 2006.
5- As consumers, the top 5% carry the
same weight as the bottom 80%
6- the top 20% paid 86.3% of all Federal
income taxes, 43.6% of Social Security, 87.8% of corporate taxes
and 34.1% of Federal excise taxes.
7- After including earned-income tax
credits, the bottom 60% of households paid less than 1% of all
Federal income taxes, and the households between 60% and 80% paid
13%.
That's how you get a statistical
"recovery" that masks the recessionary misery of the bottom
80%--the "real economy" left to rot as the Federal government
channels the national income into politically powerful corporate
cartels, Federal fiefdoms and Financial Elites.
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MARKET WARNINGS
Don't Take Your Eye Off The Ball Here: Keep Watching The Shanghai/Hong
Kong Crash BI
Keep paying attention to China and Hong Kong, which are calling
the shots right now, especially in the commodity markets. Both
markets fell hard last night, bringing commodities sharply lower,
particularly the industrial ones (copper, palladium, oil, etc.).
Shanghai is now off 10% from recent highs.
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Back
to Overbought
BeSpoke
Insider Selling To Buying Ratio Approaches Five Digits, Hits Record 8,280x
In Week Ending November 19 ZH
CURRENCY WARS
China Inflation May Be Too Hot for Controls Amid Cash Glut BL
Standing near his 12-table noodle shop on Beijing’s Yonghegong
Avenue, owner Liu Heliang says meat and vegetable prices have
climbed 10 percent in a year and staff wages are up 40 percent.
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Q3 EARNINGS
HP sales climb 8% in fourth quarter FT
MARKET &
GOLD MANIPULATION
Soros
Gold Bubble Expanding as ETPs Hold 9 Years of U.S. Output
BL
AUDIO / VIDEO
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“The thought that you can create a prosperous economy by
inflating is an illusion”
Volcker
“We sure have to maintain some confidence in the dollar or
none of this would work"
Volcker
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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and
does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion
only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as
recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or
any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his
statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own
credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a
qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory
agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment
decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your
own before making important investment commitments.ont>
© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information
herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he
does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements,
website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the
purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr.
Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in
securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr.
Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or
future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should
consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon
statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or
recommendation you receive from him.
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TIPPING POINTS |
1-SOVEREIGN DEBT &
CREDIT CRISIS |
2-EU BANKING CRISIS |
3-BOND BUBBLE |
4-STATE & LOCAL
GOVERNMENT |
5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
6-BANKING CRISIS II |
7-RISK REVERSAL |
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8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE -
PHASE II |
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL
CRISIS PROGRAM |
11-PENSION CRISIS |
12-CHRONIC
UNEMPLOYMENT |
13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP
INSUR. |
14-CORPORATE
BANKRUPTCY |
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15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II |
16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES |
17-CHINA BUBBLE |
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS |
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19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES |
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL |
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY. |
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE |
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS |
24-RETAIL SALES |
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS |
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP |
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST |
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS |
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT |
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES |
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES |
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS |
33-PANDEMIC |
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY |
35-TERRORIST EVENT |
36-NATURAL DISASTER |
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Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's
Plunder! Mish
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