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Gordon T Long

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READ ALL THE

"EXTEND & PRETEND" SERIES

 

 

Stage I Comes to an End!

 

A Matter of National Security

 

A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

Confirming the Flash Crash Omen

 

Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER 


 

 

 


 

READ ALL THE

"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

 

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"EURO EXPERIMENT" SERIES

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?!

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: EU Bullied into $1T Banking Bonanza

 

8 Financial Fault Lines Appear In the Euro Experiment!

 

"UR all PIGS from HELL"

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

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Current Thesis Advisory

62 pages

 

Published November 2009

 

EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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Add Promo Code: "Introduction"

in the Subject Heading

 


 


 

 

READ ALL THE

"INNOVATION" SERIES

 

Innovate or Die

 

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

 

America - Innovate or Die!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"PRESERVE & PROTECT" SERIES

 

 

PRESERVE & PROTECT: The Jaws of Death

 

PRESERVE & PROTECT: Mapping the Tipping Points

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POSTS:  WEDNESDAY 12-01-10

Last Update: 12/01/2022 05:35 PM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
KOREA                      
Kim Jong Il Sends Top Aide to Beijing as Diplomacy Founders Bloomberg                    
Lee blasts N. Korea, says it will pay price Asahi                    
                       
SOVEREIGN DEBT - EU                      
Europe's Crisis Widens WSJ X                  
Trichet hints at bond purchase rethink FT X                  
European company borrowing costs rise FT X                  
Europe’s debt yields show investors are unconvinced FT X                  
European Crisis Spreads to Core as Belgian Bond Yields Surge Bloomberg X                  
Irish Contagion Spreads to Europe's Less Risky Bond Markets Bloomberg X                  
Debt Infection Continues to Spread WSJ X                  
                       
PORTUGAL                      
Euro periphery hammered, Portugal warns on banks Reuters X                  
                       
GERMANY                      
Tough talk in Berlin scares investors FT X                  
The Merkel crash FT Alphaville X                  
Infected – German bunds FT Alphaville X                  
                       
ITALY                      
Contagion strikes Italy as Ireland bail-out fails to calm markets Pritchard X                  
Eurozone tempest heads for Italy FT X                  
Deutsche Bank CEO Says `Mistrust' of Spain, Banks `Unjustified' Bloomberg X                  
Budget Cuts Stir Protests in Italy, U.K WSJ X                  
                       
IRELAND                      
Why Ireland is such a test for eurozone FT (Wolf) X                  
                       
                       
European Banks ‘Nearly Bust’ If Euro Collapses, Evolution Says Bloomberg   X                
Just A 20% Haircut In PIGS Bank Debt Would Wipe Out The Equity Of French Banks BI   X                
These Are The 20 Banks Most Exposed To The European Sovereign Debt Crisis BI   X                
Eurozone banks hit by return of credit crunch FT   X                
Disputes Erupt in Europe on 'Stress Tests II' WSJ   X                
Plans for EU 'Stress Tests' Spur Squabbling WSJ   X                
Build America Bonds Are Officially A California Subsidy BI       X            
New phase of debt crisis! Striking NOW! Despite rescues! Weiss           X        
Bank Of America Selling Accelerates, As Fears Spread That It's In The Wikileaks Crosshairs BI           X        
Exclusive: WikiLeaks will unveil major bank scandal Forbes           X        
BofA Stock Declines on WikiLeaks Anticipation WSJ           X        
BofA Mortgage Morass Deepens on Promissory Notes Issues Bloomberg           X        
Some U.S. Money Funds Exposed to European Banks WSJ           X        
Get Ready For Wednesday's Big Announcement- Fed Set To Release Bailout Documents BI           X        
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Banks Resisting Fannie, Freddie Demands to Buy Back Mortgages Bloomberg     X              
Port Plans Test GOP Resolve on Earmarks WSJ                 X  
                       
REMAINING                      
Beijing acts on surging food prices FT                   31
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Can the Fed Become Insolvent? Mises                    
Get Ready For Wednesday's Big Announcement- Fed Set To Release Bailout Documents BI                    
                       
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Global risk of U.S. impotence at heart of WikiLeak Hutchison                    
MEPs urge battle on funds fraud FT                    
Rothschild Plays His Strongest Suit With $3 Billion Mining Deal Bloomberg                    
Household Deleveraging - Largest Decline on Record N Trust                    
The financialisation of commodities VOX                    
                       

CURRENCY WARS

                     
Currency Manipulation: Two Sides to Every Coin Merk                    
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
Will A New Chinese Gold ETF Give The Gold Bull Run Another Gigantic Leg Up BI                    
Why Eric Sprott sees silver as the next big investing windfall G&M                    
Silver jumps nearly 4%, trades near 30-year high MW                    
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
The Day the Dollar Died You Tube                    
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

                    LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

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COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


  BRIEFS  

Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy
   
     

 READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





12-01-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

 

IRAN

 

ISREAL

 

KOREA

 

Kim Jong Il Sends Top Aide to Beijing as Diplomacy Founders BL

 

Lee blasts N. Korea, says it will pay price Asahi

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

 

Europe's Crisis Widens  WSJ

 

Click to Enlarge

 

Trichet hints at bond purchase rethink  FT

 Markets warned not to underestimate ECB

 

European company borrowing costs rise FT

 Fears of contagion spread to corporate debt market

 

Europe’s debt yields show investors are unconvinced  FT

 

European Crisis Spreads to Core as Belgian Bond Yields Surge  BL

 

Irish Contagion Spreads to Europe's Less Risky Bond Markets  BL

 

Debt Infection Continues to Spread  WSJ

 

PORTUGAL

Euro periphery hammered, Portugal warns on banks Reuters

GERMANY

Tough talk in Berlin scares investors  FT

 

The Merkel crash FT Alphaville 

 

Infected – German bunds FT Alphaville

 

ITALY

Contagion strikes Italy as Ireland bail-out fails to calm markets Pritchard

Eurozone tempest heads for Italy  FT

Deutsche Bank CEO Says `Mistrust' of Spain, Banks `Unjustified'  BL

Budget Cuts Stir Protests in Italy, U.K  WSJ

IRELAND

Martin WolfWhy Ireland is such a test for eurozone  FT (Wolf)

JAPAN

 

 

USA

 

time (et) report period Actual Consensus
forecast
previous

Wednesday, Dec. 1
8:15 am ADP employment Nov.   N/A 43,000
8:30 am Productivity 3Q   2.2% 1.9%
10 am ISM Nov.   56.8% 56.9%
10 am Construction spending Oct.   -0.4% 0.5%
TBA Motor vehicle sales Nov.   12.1 mln 12.3 mln
2 pm Beige Book        

 

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

European Banks ‘Nearly Bust’ If Euro Collapses, Evolution Says BL

 

Just A 20% Haircut In PIGS Bank Debt Would Wipe Out The Equity Of French Banks  BI

 

A question everyone asks after the Irish bailout is "Why were there no haircuts to Irish bank bondholders?" Why, in other words, are the people who financed Ireland's debt forays not on the hook for aiding and abetting this misadventure?

Michael Cembalest of JP Morgan weighs in on this in his latest:

Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal (GISP) are small in GDP terms relative to Germany and France. But their banking systems grew to be very large (e.g., a 20% haircut on French bank exposure to GISP countries would wipe out French bank equity). Irish Finance Minister Lehinan intimated that Ireland asked to be able to apply haircuts to senior bank debt, and was told by the EU that it would make no money available if there were any haircuts, due to fears of contagion. What does that tell you about the risk of small countries, or the European banking system?

Welcome to yet another example of banks being too metastasized to fail.

 

These Are The 20 Banks Most Exposed To The European Sovereign Debt Crisis  BI

 

Deutsche Bank have broken down the debt threat facing Europe's banks, and it isn't pretty for many of them.

 

In fact, many banks have significant exposures to Total Bank Value (TBV) associated with the already bailed out Greek and Irish sovereigns, as well as the likely next to fall, Portugal.

 

We've included both the exposure level, by % of TBV, and the risks associated with the exposures.

This information is particularly important in light of the eurozone leaders' new plan to establish a means for member states to restructure (partially default) by 2013.

Click here for the banks >

 

Eurozone banks hit by return of credit crunch  FT

 

Disputes Erupt in Europe on 'Stress Tests II'  WSJ

 

Plans for EU 'Stress Tests' Spur Squabbling  WSJ

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

Build America Bonds Are Officially A California Subsidy  BI

 

 

5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


New phase of debt crisis! Striking NOW! Despite rescues! Weiss

Bank Of America Selling Accelerates, As Fears Spread That It's In The Wikileaks Crosshairs  BI

Is the target of the Wikileaks "Big Bank" exposé going to be Bank of America?

As the Huffington Post points out, Julian Assange talked about BofA last year in an interview with Computer World, claiming "he had acquired a large cache of information from Bank of America."

 

He specified that he has 5GB of material on the company.

 

In the interview Assange said:

 

"At the moment, for example, we are sitting on 5GB from Bank of America, one of the executive's hard drives. Now how do we present that? It's a difficult problem. We could just dump it all into one giant Zip file, but we know for a fact that has limited impact. To have impact, it needs to be easy for people to dive in and search it and get something out of it."

 

Yesterday, a Forbes interview revealed that early next year, Assange will drop a trove of documents that could take down "one or two banks."

He confirmed that the information comes from a U.S bank.

 

Speculation that BofA is the bank in question is not unexpected, especially in the wake of the robo-signing scandal, which exposed an uncontrolled, often messy operation within the bank's finance and mortgage divisions.

 

Plus, Assange told Forbes that the Big Bank leak will include thousands of internal documents, which have "an overlap between corporate and government leaks."

 

In typical Assange fashion, he emphasized the information "will be exposed on Wikileaks.org with no polite requests for executives’ response or other forewarnings. The data dump will lay bare the finance firm’s secrets on the Web for every customer, every competitor, every regulator to examine and pass judgment on."


Exclusive: WikiLeaks will unveil major bank scandal Forbes

BofA Stock Declines on WikiLeaks Anticipation  WSJ

BofA Mortgage Morass Deepens on Promissory Notes Issues BL

Some U.S. Money Funds Exposed to European Banks  WSJ

Get Ready For Wednesday's Big Announcement- Fed Set To Release Bailout Documents  BI

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

Banks Resisting Fannie, Freddie Demands to Buy Back Mortgages BL

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE



19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

Port Plans Test GOP Resolve on Earmarks  WSJ

 

Republicans in Washington are eagerly promoting their promise to abstain from earmarks. But the pledge made on the campaign trail is proving more complicated in practice.



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

Beijing acts on surging food prices  FT

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 






   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

Can the Fed Become Insolvent? Mises

Get Ready For Wednesday's Big Announcement- Fed Set To Release Bailout Documents  BI


 

 GENERAL INTEREST

Global risk of U.S. impotence at heart of WikiLeak Hutchinson

MEPs urge battle on funds fraud  FT

 

Rothschild Plays His Strongest Suit With $3 Billion Mining Deal  BL

 
Nathaniel Rothschild ’s most successful trade as a hedge-fund manager was his investment in U.S. mining company Phelps Dodge Corp. The future 5th Baron Rothschild says he now plans to build one of the world’s largest coal producers.

Household Deleveraging - Largest Decline on Record NTrust

The financialisation of commodities VOX

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

 

MARKET WARNINGS

 

G20 MEETING

 

 

 

CURRENCY WARS

Currency Manipulation: Two Sides to Every Coin Merk

 

Q3 EARNINGS

 

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

Will A New Chinese Gold ETF Give The Gold Bull Run Another Gigantic Leg Up   BI 

 

The introduction of the fund in late 2004 didn't lead to any historical obvious distortions in the price

 

Why Eric Sprott sees silver as the next big investing windfall G&M

 

Silver jumps nearly 4%, trades near 30-year high MW

AUDIO / VIDEO

The Day the Dollar Died YouTube

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK



"Germany cannot keep paying for bail-outs without going bankrupt itself. This is frightening people. You cannot find a bank safe deposit box in Germany because every single one has already been taken and stuffed with gold and silver. It is like an underground Switzerland within our borders. People have terrible memories of 1948 and 1923 when they lost their savings."

 Professor Wilhelm Hankel, of Frankfurt University
EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself - Telegraph


"We're not swimming in money, we're drowning in debts"

German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble before Bundestag
EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself - Telegraph


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

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TODAY'S NEWS

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12-01-10

NOVEMBER

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14 15 16 17 18 19 20
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22 23 24 25 26
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ARCHIVAL

 

 


 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.