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Published November 2009
EXTEND & PRETEND
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Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with
highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.
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COMMENTARY for all articles by
Gordon T Long
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CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!
 In
September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy
decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court
with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split
them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set
the world on the path to global currency wars.
By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the
US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an
uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian
economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and
money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the
expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting
on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile
with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.
Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become
casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary
responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership
placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained
destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way
out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our
political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary
responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to
their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at
certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a
needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense
adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of
success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into. A future
that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come.
READ MORE |
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CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy
 The
critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective
public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic
Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening
salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.
Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political
distraction from the real issue – a failure
of US policy leadership. In my
opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong!
I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend
& Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian
policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored
a
full series of articles from January through August in a broadly
published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted
failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has
happened was not fully predictable!
Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more
money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted
QE II was inevitable in
March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets
with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term
elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an
“undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is
the last bastion of scoundres
READ MORE
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READER ROADMAP
- 2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to
positioning COMMENTARY
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1
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1-SOVEREIGN DEBT |
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2-EU BANKING CRISIS |
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3-BOND BUBBLE |
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4-STATE &
LOCAL GOVERNMENT |
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5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
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6-BANKING CRISIS II |
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7-RISK REVERSAL |
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8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
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9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE -
PHASE II |
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10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL
CRISIS PROGRAM |
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11-PENSION CRISIS |
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12-CHRONIC
UNEMPLOYMENT |
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13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP
INSUR. |
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14-CORPORATE
BANKRUPTCY |
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TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE |
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RED ALERT |
AMBER ALERT |
ACTIVITY |
MONITOR |
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Click to Enlarge
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12-20-10
GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN
KOREA
South Korea on ‘high alert’ after exercises
FT
China had urged delay amid
fears over North Korea’s reaction
South Korea Completes Live-Firing Drill as UN Wrangles
BL
Firing Drill Increases Korea Tensions
WSJ
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1-
SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS |
When Will Bonds Bottom?
Swenlin
Are Higher Treasury Yields Here to Stay?
BMO Focus
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4- STATE
& LOCAL GOVERNMENT |
Build America Boom Set to Bust After Busiest Issuance Week: Muni
Credit
BL
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5-
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
Regulators close banks in Ga., Fla., Ark., Minn.
AP
FDIC
New Credit Union Regulations Will Enable Hundreds Of Takeovers By
Wall Street BI
Korea and euro tensions leave traders wary
FT
The 12 Risks You Must Prepare For In 2011
BI
Here are the risks, their
likelihood and their impact:
1. High yield spreads
2. Double dipping
3. Japan's debt mountain
4. Beggar thy neighbour mentality
5.
Capital flows too hot to handle
6. Chinese
inflation
7. Food riots
8. Is India an accident waiting to happen?
9. European sovereign risk
10. Massive
refinancing needs
11. Premature withdrawal
of monetary support
12. Israel launching a
pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities
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8-
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
Here's The Truth About The Supposed "Recovery" In Commercial And
Industrial Lending BI
| Why adjust for population and inflation? Consider: During the
past 59 years, the US population has virtually doubled while the
dollar has lost about 88% of its purchasing power to inflation.
When we adjust accordingly, the latest commercial and industrial
loan activity is about where we were in August 1989 |
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9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II |
Opening the Bag of Mortgage Tricks
NYT (Morgenson)
Does
'Dr. Doom' think housing prices have bottomed?
Life
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10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
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11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS
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13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE |
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14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES |
A Close Look At The World's Increasing Dependence On China
BI
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19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES |
Kicking the Can Down the Road
Mauldin
Estate
Tax Will Return Next Year, but Few Will Pay It
NYT
Shock treatmentA scare is needed to jolt the US into tackling debt
FT
OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE
24-RETAIL SALES
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK
MARKET VALUATIONS
GENERAL INTEREST Venezuela
assembly gives Chavez decree powers
Reuters
Explaining the Crisis With Dogma
Nocera
Next
Year - The Third Year of the Presidential Cycle!
Harding
10
Trends for 2011
Celente
Taleb
Interview on U.S. Economy, New Book
BL
How a
Different America Responded to the Great Depression
PEW
Debt Pyramid Scheme Now the Norm in U.S.- Roger Lowenstein BL MARKET WARNINGS
CURRENCY WARS
South Korea Imposes Bank Levy to Reduce Capital Volatility BL
MARKET &
GOLD MANIPULATION
Silver/Gold Ratio Reversion 4
ZEAL
AUDIO / VIDEO
Here's That Must-Watch 60 Minutes Segment On The States' "Day Of
Reckoning" CBS
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
"Gold as money is incompatible with
unlimited majority rule and scoffs at the idea that money is just
'credit'. It negates any rationale, however farfetched, for the
existence of central banks. It precludes 'fractional reserve
banking' or any other method of debasing its utility as a medium
of exchange. Last and most important, it SEVERELY curbs the power
of government to interfere in the lives of its citizens. No
assembly of national “leaders” brought together to “modernize” a
financial system will ever agree to its use as money. But let one
nation anywhere implement it, and the lid blows off."
William A Buckler
Publisher:
The
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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and
does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion
only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as
recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or
any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his
statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own
credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a
qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory
agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment
decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your
own before making important investment commitments.ont>
© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information
herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he
does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements,
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purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr.
Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in
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future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should
consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon
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recommendation you receive from him.
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TIPPING POINTS |
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1-SOVEREIGN DEBT &
CREDIT CRISIS |
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2-EU BANKING CRISIS |
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3-BOND BUBBLE |
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4-STATE & LOCAL
GOVERNMENT |
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5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE |
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6-BANKING CRISIS II |
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7-RISK REVERSAL |
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8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE |
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9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE -
PHASE II |
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10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL
CRISIS PROGRAM |
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11-PENSION CRISIS |
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12-CHRONIC
UNEMPLOYMENT |
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13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP
INSUR. |
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14-CORPORATE
BANKRUPTCY |
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15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II |
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16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES |
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17-CHINA BUBBLE |
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18-INTEREST PAYMENTS |
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19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES |
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20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL |
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21-US RESERVE CURRENCY. |
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22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE |
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23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS |
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24-RETAIL SALES |
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25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS |
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26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP |
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27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST |
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28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS |
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29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT |
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30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES |
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31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES |
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32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS |
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33-PANDEMIC |
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34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY |
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35-TERRORIST EVENT |
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36-NATURAL DISASTER |
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