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"Extend & Pretend" Read the Series...

Stage 1 Comes to an End!
A Matter of National Security
A Guide to the Road Ahead 
Confirming the Flash Crash Omen
It's Either RICO Act or Control Fraud
Shifting Risk to the Innocent
Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!
Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?
Gaming the US Tax Payer
Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up
Hitting the Maturity Wall
An Accounting Driven
Market Recovery

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"UR all PIGS from HELL

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Current Thesis Advisory:

PDF, 162 pages
Published November 2009

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in the Email Subject

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POSTS: Thursday, 12-30-2010
Last update:  12/31/2010 3:33 AM Postings begin at 5:30am EST
and updated throughout the day
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  Independent 1
ITALY     1
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UK     1
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JAPAN     1
Salmon 1
USA     1
  FT 2
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Business Insider 4
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Business Insider 6

Shilling 6
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Investors 13
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Other Tipping Point Categories not listed above
Gramley Says Plosser, Fisher May Dissent From Fed Ease Plan   Bloomberg  
A Fed-Induced Speculative Blowoff   Hussman  
Sweden Shows Central Bankers How to Fight Next Asset Bubble   Bloomberg  
2011 OUTLOOKS      
The Lull Before The Storm: What’s Coming in 2011   Lira  
Currency intervention is only a short-term solution   FT  
Brazil Raises Duties on China-made Baby Dolls as Real Gains Hurt Toymakers   Bloomberg  
'Chinaflation' worries poised to hit Korea   Korea Times  
Australian Dollar pushes near 2010-high   Dow Jones  
China CEOs Temper Support for Yuan With Dollar Concern   Bloomberg  
Copper surges to record of $9,447 a tonne   FT  
China to cut crucial rare earths export quotas   AP  
'The U.S. Dollar Will Collapse Within 24 Months! Got Gold (or Silver)?'   McCoach  
Euro under renewed pressure

2010 IN REVIEW      
In the Rearview, a Year That Fizzled   NY Times - Leonhardt  
A World in Crisis   Weekly Standard  
‘Doubling Up’ in Recession-Strained Quarters   NY Times  
When Do Recessions Begin and End?   FRBSL  
Dodging Repatriation Tax Lets U.S. Companies Bring Home Cash   Bloomberg  
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READER ROADMAP & GUIDE:   2010 Tipping Points and commentary

Tipping Points Life Cycle - Explained

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Trading strategy: standing aside

The break above 1.3180 was short as the euro was unable to sustain gains and declined to as low as 1.3083 where it found support – formed by last week’s bottom around 1.3080 and also the rising trend line connecting the higher lows since August. Cable was also dragged lower, following EURUSD, but the commodity currencies were good performers, along with the Swiss franc which remains a safe haven currency and trades around record levels against both USD and EUR. My expectation for the euro to hold above 1.3180 was wrong and I rather wait for a notable confirmation, not just a simple intra-day breakout, before considering any bullish scenarios. Speaking of current conditions – resistance is again formed at 1.3180/00, followed by the 1.3250 region, higher. On the daily charts we have a pin bar formed yesterday – suggesting further weakness. Current exchange rate is 1.3127 @08:35 GMT

Support: 1.3070/00, 1.3000/30, 1.2970 and 1.2900
Resistance: 1.3180, 1.3250/75, 1.3300/30 and 1.3400
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – bullish, short term – bearish, intraday – slightly bullish


EURUSD 1hr chart 12-29-2010

EURUSD daily chart 12-29-2010

AUDUSD daily chart 12-29-2010

EURCHF 4hrs chart 12-29-2010

XAUUSD daily chart 12-29-2010


U.S. home foreclosures jumped in the third quarter and banks' efforts to keep borrowers in their homes dropped as the housing market continues to struggle, U.S. bank regulators said on Wednesday.

The regulators said one reason for the increase in foreclosures is that banks have "exhausted" options for keeping many delinquent borrowers in their homes through programs such as loan modifications.

Newly initiated foreclosures increased to 382,000 in the third quarter, a 31.2 percent jump over the previous quarter and a 3.7 percent rise from a year ago, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision said in their quarterly mortgage report.

The number of foreclosures in process increased to 1.2 million, a 4.5 percent increase from the second quarter and a 10.1 percent increase from a year ago, according to the regulators.

The report, which covers 33 million loans serviced by national banks and federally regulated thrifts, also shows a sharp drop in the amount of loan modifications processed through the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), the Obama administration's leading foreclosure prevention effort. HAMP loan modifications fell by almost 46 percent in the third quarter, according to the report. Regulators noted, however, that loan modifications done by servicers outside of HAMP increased by 10 percent in the the third quarter.

Overall home retention actions taken by banks to keep borrowers in their homes dropped by 17 percent compared to the second quarter.

There's the still-massive number of foreclosures, which will keep pressure on prices.

The percent of mortgages past due is still climbing...

The number of bank-owned houses is still climbing (more future inventory)

When you count "shadow inventory", the imbalance looks even worse

THE BOTTOM LINE: House prices probably have another 20% to fall