POSTS: Tuesday, 03-15-2011 |
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Latest Research Publications |
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CURRENCY WARS: RIP Shadow Banking System, Long Live QEx!
We have unwittingly become trapped in the snarled net of years of bad Public Policy. Like corporations that look no further than this quarter's results, our politicos never stop campaigning to start the tough task of ruling responsibly. A winning election simply represents 'rewards' and 'spoils' to all before quickly resuming the next campaign. Image has become reality! As a result the never ending political pandering has led to false expectations, undeliverable entitlements and false optimism in the electorate that rejects the immediate and obvious realities. The result of a degenerated political leadership process is we are on the brink of a massive and sudden reduction in the US standard of living. MORE>> |
CURRENCY WARS: Flash Points in the "Age of Rage"
The conflict in North Africa was a predictable outcome of the US Monetary Policy of Quantitative Easing. It is not plausible that the US Federal Reserve, as the manager of the world's Reserve Currency, did not fully recognize the global ramifications of such monetary inflationary actions well in advance. Quantitative Easing like the Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) of the cold war era has had the same devastating pre-emptive impact on Libya.There can also be little doubt that the bi-monthly meetings of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) board of directors, which specifically meet to discuss coordinated monetary policy outcomes, did not consider this eventuality. The board of directors of this global power center includes all G7 Central Banks chiefs, with the conspicuous absence of a single member of the Arab League not receiving US military financial aid. MORE>> |
TIPPING POINTS - Mapping the Critical 2011 Themes 2011 THESIS SIGN-UP PAGE 
The conclusions of our "2011 Thesis - Beggar-thy-Neighbor" was that the world is on a glide path towards a global Fiat Currency Failure and the emergence of a New World Order. We are unclear whether it is planned or happenstance, but what our regularly conducted abstraction mapping process clearly indicates is that it is presently a high probability outcome. The paper (which will be made available to non subscribers March 11th, 2011- sign-up) uses the Process of Abstraction to avoid the media noise, abstract the facts, synthesis key macro drivers and then arrive at the highest probability outcomes. In the recent article "2011 Tipping Points" we laid out the 37 major Tipping Points we are presently tracking. These Tipping Points are show on the left hand side of the two charts below, which are the basis upon which our ongoing analysis process is conducted. These highly simplified representations of the process gives the reader a graphical perspective on what leads us to our conclusions. MORE>> |
MARKET ANALYTICS - March 2011 THIS MONTH ONLY - Special Free 3 Month Trial Subscription Available
The market action since March 2009 is a bear market counter rally that is presently nearing a final end in a classic ending diagonal pattern. The Bear Market which started in 2000 will resume in full force by late spring of 2011. We presently have the early beginnings of a 'rolling top'. We are seeing broad based weakening analytics and cascading warning signals. This behavior is typically seen near major tops. This is all part of a final topping formation and a long term right shoulder technical construction pattern. MORE>> |
PRESERVE and PROTECT - 2011 Tipping Points
Throughout my 2010 article series "Extend & Pretend" and "Sultans of Swap" I stressed that we were rapidly moving from the Financial Crisis of 2008, through the Economic Fallout of 2009 - 2010, towards a Political Crisis in 2011 - 2012. We are now clearly beginning to see the early emergence of the final part of this continuum. From North Africa to Wisconsin all are fundamentally based on the single insidious underlying problem - excessive global debt and credit levels. MORE>> |
EURO EXPERIMENT - Beware of Lurking EU Bank Runs
This is a warning to prepare for potential stealth bank runs cascading from North Africa and Ireland through to EU regional banking centers. Stealth bank runs are the unrecognized and perilous serpent lurking presently below the European financial surface. They prey on slower moving archaic bond vigilantes and anyone else swimming in these dangerous uncharted waters. Investors need to fully appreciate that a modern bank run looks and operates differently than what is depicted in the movies and what we most likely expect to occur! MORE>> |
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Last update:
03/15/2011 5:44 PM |
Postings begin at 5:30am EST
and updated throughout the day |
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^NATURAL PHYSICAL DISASTER^
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Japan losing control of nuclear crisis - Kan criticises Fukushima plant operator as Nikkei drops 10.6% - The Nikkei 225 stock average closed down 10.6 per cent on Tuesday after slumping 6.2 per cent on Monday. A sixth of the Japanese market’s value has been wiped out in two trading days since the country’s worst earthquake and tsunami since records began struck on Friday. Japan appears to be losing control of its nuclear crisis after a fresh explosion at an atomic plant north of Tokyo released more radiation into the air, prompting the prime minister to appeal for calm and accelerating a big sell-off of Japanese shares.
Mr Kan warned the company not to withdraw key personnel after Tepco earlier on Tuesday evacuated 740 non-essential staff from the station, leaving a skeleton crew of about 50 to continue efforts to cool the coastal reactors.
“You are the only ones [who can resolve the crisis]. Retreat is unthinkable,” Japanese media reported him as telling executives.
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FT |
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Immense human tragedy starts to unfold |
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FT |
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Risky assets dumped as Japan crisis intensifies - US Treasury yields plunge as safe havens sought |
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FT |
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Nikkei crashes as nuclear crisis escalates |
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FT |
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Japan quake risks severe near-term economic damage - Following the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the economy shrank by 2 percent, followed by a V-shaped recovery... |
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Reuters |
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Japan's earthquake could be most expensive ever |
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CNN |
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Radioactive Releases Could Last Months, Experts Say |
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NY Times |
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Japan Adds $183B to Economy, Doubles Asset Purchases - Besides the 15 trillion yen of emergency funds deployed in the central bank’s biggest one-day operation, the Bank of Japan offered to buy 3 trillion yen of government bonds from lenders in repurchase agreements starting March 16.
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BL |
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Japan quake impact seen deep and long - At worst, forecasts from some economists suggest the world's third largest economy is in danger of slipping back into recession |
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AFP |
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Economy to rebound after short-term pain |
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BBC |
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Supply Disruptions of Power and Water... |
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NY Times |
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Japan 'Big One' May Raise Quake Risk for Years |
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BL |
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Japan quake may hit flash memory chip supply |
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CNET |
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Roubini Earthquake Gloom Meets `Shock Doctrine' |
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Pesek |
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JAPAN |
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Japan’s megabank-bond tremors |
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FT Alphaville |
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Could Japan's earthquake cause a debt crisis? -
The bottom line here is that the quake is likely to have minimal impact on the overall economy, if the situation plays out as it did in Kobe. But there is one big difference. 2011 is not 1995. The government is in much worse financial shape than it was 16 years ago, which means policymakers have less scope for greatly increased fiscal spending, and that any meaningful increase in spending could potentially have a negative impact on market sentiment towards Japanese debt. |
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Times |
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EU SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS |
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Total German triumph as EU minnows subjugated - The Iron Chancellor of Germany could not have been clearer. “Whoever wants credit must fulfill our conditions“. These conditions are capitulation by three vulnerable states on core policies, and partial loss of sovereignty for the rest of the eurozone.
What is clear is that sovereign states are being forced to cut wages and dismantle parts of their welfare state under foreign diktat, with a gun held to their heads. This will not be forgotten lightly. The character of the European Project has changed utterly. |
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Pritchard |
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Banks have £1.6 ($2.5) Trillion exposure to ailing quartet of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain - Eurozone leaders agreed to boost the lending power of the EU bail-out fund on Friday, but Germany vetoed proposals for a debt buy-back scheme or an activist policy of bond purchases.
The BIS, the central bank of central banks, said in its quarterly report that Germany had $569bn of exposure to the quartet, France $380bn, and the UK $431bn. |
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Telegraph |
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^FOOD PRICE PRESSURES^
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The global food crunch - Here's a question about the Mideast turmoil for future historians: How much did food inflation contribute? We know some basic facts. Middle East countries import 50 percent or more of their wheat, a staple food for many. Beginning in mid-2010, world grain prices exploded. At $8.56 a bushel in February, wheat prices had doubled in eight months. Despite massive subsidies, some higher prices filtered through to consumers. Did that create a tinderbox for protest?
"In both Tunisia and Egypt, women in TV interviews screamed about food prices," says Laurie Garrett of the Council on Foreign Relations. "Food inflation was a contributor. How much we don't know." |
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Samuelson |
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Higher food prices may be here to stay - Since last summer, several events — floods in Australia, blistering drought in Russia, the threat of a poor winter wheat crop in China — have compounded concerns about the food supply and pushed world prices to the highest levels measured since the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization began calculating its index in 1990. For decades, the world was often swimming in surplus food because farmers were so productive. But rising demand has caught up, and reserves have become so tight that global food markets are vulnerable to even minor shocks. Many analysts say that higher, more volatile prices may be here to stay. |
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Wash. Post |
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XXX |
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Pritchard |
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Milk Sliding 14% as Cows Boost Output, Cheese Jumps to 1984 High |
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BL |
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^RISING INFLATION & INTEREST PRESSURES ^ |
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Interest rate rise will put the recovery at risk, warns BDO |
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Independent |
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^OIL PRICE PRESSURES^ |
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How Black Is the Japanese Nuclear Swan? |
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Oil Drum |
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Natural Gas Surges as Japan’s Earthquake Halts Nuclear Power |
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BL |
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Gas prices put brake on spring break for many |
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USAT |
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Other News Items of Importance |
US ECONOMIC NEWS & RESULTS |
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Shiller: Will Quake and Tsunami Ruin Recovery? |
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CNBC |
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CURRENCY WARS |
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Wen insists on gradual appreciation of yuan |
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Xinhua |
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COMMODITY CORNER |
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Uranium Shares Fall |
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MW |
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Nuclear Winter? |
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MW |
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Soaring commodity prices at mercy of demand - from speculators - “I’ve only been doing this 30 years...But one of the things I learned a long time ago is that speculating in futures is God’s way of telling you you’ve got too much money.” |
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G&M |
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Coeur D'Alene Looks to Ride Silver Prices |
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TheStreet |
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TECHNICALS & MARKET ANALYTICS |
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Anatomy of a Bubble |
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Hussman |
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The Seven Immutable Laws of Investing -“The absence of attractively priced assets with good margins of safety should lead investors to raise cash.” |
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Montier |
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Contrarian’s trouble with new bubble |
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MW |
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Profit Margins at 18-Year High Signal Bigger S&P 500 Dividends |
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BL |
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MARKET WARNINGS |
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Risk of 10% Stock Slide Tripled in a Month, Goldman Sachs Says |
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BL |
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Mad as hell and Icahn take it any more |
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Price |
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Adens, Schultz, Batten Down Hatches |
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Brimelow |
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Companies’ Cash Hoard Grows |
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WSJ |
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2011 OUTLOOKS |
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An Uneven Global Recovery - Lingering Effects of the Credit Crisis |
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Hester |
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The Gathering Storm - “But as the Crisis mood congeals, people will come to the jarring realization that they have grown helplessly dependent on a teetering edifice of anonymous transactions and paper guarantees. Many Americans won’t know where their savings are, who their employer is, what their pension is, or how their government works. The era will have left the financial world arbitraged and tentacled: Debtors won’t know who holds their notes, homeowners who owns their mortgages, and shareholders who runs their equities – and vice versa.” |
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Jim Quinn |
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A good looking economy is not always a good economy |
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Jackson |
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GENERAL INTEREST |
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Nenner Joins Marc Faber and Gerald Celente in Predicting Major War |
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Global Research |
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Does Anyone Seriously Believe the Global Recovery Is Still Intact? |
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Charles Hugh Smith |
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Barack Obama Is the New Jimmy Carter: Niall Ferguson |
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CNBC |
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The Pentagon’s Biggest Boondoggles |
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NY Times |
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Featured Video |
Steps to Getting the U.S. Fiscal House in Order - John Mauldin |
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Fox Video |
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Stunning New Footage Of Incoming Tsunami |
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TV Asahi |
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Stunning Video Of Reactor 3 Explosion |
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Japanese TV |
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Charles Nenner: A "Major War" Is Coming At The End Of 2012 |
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FOX |
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WTSHTF |
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MusicVid |
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Fed Chair Bernanke Weighs in on Defict Reduction Plans |
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C-SPAN |
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Bernanke Testimony: Monetary Policy Report before Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs |
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C-Span |
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Commodities Bull Run - Jim Rogers Interview |
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CNBC |
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Marc Faber McAlvany Interview 23 February 201 |
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YouTube |
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Warren Buffett Speaks |
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CNBC |
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Rosenberg Sees Recessionary Indicators for U.S. Economy |
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David Rosenberg |
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Ratigan & Sanders on the Fed |
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MSNBC |
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Bernanke's Record - QEII - Inflation |
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You Tube |
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Shiller Says Double-Dip Recession `More Probable' |
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BL |
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Fuzzy Numbers |
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Chris Martenson |
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Inflation |
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Chris Martenson |
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Overdose: The Next Financial Crisis |
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GRTV |
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Glenn Beck Uses Two Chalkboards To Explain The Crisis In Egypt |
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Glenn Beck |
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The Beginning Of Systemic Failure |
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Mike Ruppert |
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Bank Bailouts Explained |
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You Tube |
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A Scary Signal to the US - Marc Faber Interview- China Sending A Signal |
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Bloomberg |
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Anti-Tax Video Humor |
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North |
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'The Day After The Dollar Crashes - A Survival Guide for the Rise of the New World Order ' |
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YouTube |
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'America will collapse' After a collapse, the only thing left is crime. |
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Before Its News |
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SIMON JOHNSON: Bill Daley’s Appointment Proves "The Bankers Have Won" |
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TechTicker |
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The Next Ten Years: Three Drivers of the Political Economy |
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YouTube |
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Massachusetts Foreclosure Ruling: 'Landmark' |
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Bloomberg |
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Michael Hudson Interview |
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Real News |
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Looming Monetary Collapse - US Reserve Currency Crisis |
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Hunt - Stansberry |
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Niall Ferguson: Empires on the Edge of Chaos |
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Fora TV |
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Damaged Gulf Stream affects Jet Stream - Lord Stirling |
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U-Tube |
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Featured Audio |
COMING SOON: Tipping Points Audio Discussions & Debates
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BOB SHILLER 02-24-11: Says Home Prices Could Fall Further |
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BL Surveillance |
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MARATHEFTIS 02-24-11: Saudi Arabia May Avoid Protests |
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BL Surveillance |
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EL-ERIAN 02-22-11: Political Unrests Add Stagflationary Winds |
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BL Surveillance |
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BOB HOYE 02-19-11: Window Of Effervescence |
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TalkDigital |
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JOHN RUBINO 02-16-11: Parabolic Inflation? |
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TalkDigital |
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TIM WOOD 02-16-11: Dow Theory Update - February |
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TalkDigital |
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Briefs |
Technical Analysis: Are We There Yet? |
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Gordon T Long |
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Ending Diagonal Dead Ahead |
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Gordon T Long |
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Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy |
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Gordon T Long |
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READER ROADMAP & GUIDE: 2010 Tipping Points and commentary |