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CURRENCY WARS: RIP Shadow Banking System, Long Live QEx!
We have unwittingly become trapped in the snarled net of years of bad Public Policy. Like corporations that look no further than this quarter's results, our politicos never stop campaigning to start the tough task of ruling responsibly. A winning election simply represents 'rewards' and 'spoils' to all before quickly resuming the next campaign. Image has become reality! As a result the never ending political pandering has led to false expectations, undeliverable entitlements and false optimism in the electorate that rejects the immediate and obvious realities. The result of a degenerated political leadership process is we are on the brink of a massive and sudden reduction in the US standard of living. MORE>>
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CURRENCY WARS: Flash Points in the "Age of Rage"
The conflict in North Africa was a predictable outcome of the US Monetary Policy of Quantitative Easing. It is not plausible that the US Federal Reserve, as the manager of the world's Reserve Currency, did not fully recognize the global ramifications of such monetary inflationary actions well in advance. Quantitative Easing like the Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) of the cold war era has had the same devastating pre-emptive impact on Libya.There can also be little doubt that the bi-monthly meetings of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) board of directors, which specifically meet to discuss coordinated monetary policy outcomes, did not consider this eventuality. The board of directors of this global power center includes all G7 Central Banks chiefs, with the conspicuous absence of a single member of the Arab League not receiving US military financial aid. MORE>> |
TIPPING POINTS - Mapping the Critical 2011 Themes
The conclusions of our "2011 Thesis - Beggar-thy-Neighbor" was that the world is on a glide path towards a global Fiat Currency Failure and the emergence of a New World Order. We are unclear whether it is planned or happenstance, but what our regularly conducted abstraction mapping process clearly indicates is that it is presently a high probability outcome. The paper (which will be made available to non subscribers March 11th, 2011- sign-up) uses the Process of Abstraction to avoid the media noise, abstract the facts, synthesis key macro drivers and then arrive at the highest probability outcomes. In the recent article "2011 Tipping Points" we laid out the 37 major Tipping Points we are presently tracking. These Tipping Points are show on the left hand side of the two charts below, which are the basis upon which our ongoing analysis process is conducted. These highly simplified representations of the process gives the reader a graphical perspective on what leads us to our conclusions. MORE>> |
PRESERVE and PROTECT - 2011 Tipping Points
Throughout my 2010 article series "Extend & Pretend" and "Sultans of Swap" I stressed that we were rapidly moving from the Financial Crisis of 2008, through the Economic Fallout of 2009 - 2010, towards a Political Crisis in 2011 - 2012. We are now clearly beginning to see the early emergence of the final part of this continuum. From North Africa to Wisconsin all are fundamentally based on the single insidious underlying problem - excessive global debt and credit levels. MORE>> |
EURO EXPERIMENT - Beware of Lurking EU Bank Runs
This is a warning to prepare for potential stealth bank runs cascading from North Africa and Ireland through to EU regional banking centers. Stealth bank runs are the unrecognized and perilous serpent lurking presently below the European financial surface. They prey on slower moving archaic bond vigilantes and anyone else swimming in these dangerous uncharted waters. Investors need to fully appreciate that a modern bank run looks and operates differently than what is depicted in the movies and what we most likely expect to occur! MORE>> |
SUBSCRIBER REPORTS - SPECIAL FREE 3 MONTH TRIAL AVAILABLE |
THESIS 2011: Beggar-Thy Neighbor
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April 2011: MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - (Subscription Service III)
The market action since March 2009 is a bear market counter rally that is presently nearing a final end in a classic ending diagonal pattern. The Bear Market which started in 2000 will resume in full force by late spring of 2011. We presently have the early beginnings of a 'rolling top'. We are seeing broad based weakening analytics and cascading warning signals. This behavior is typically seen near major tops. This is all part of a final topping formation and a long term right shoulder technical construction pattern. MORE>>
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Last update:
04/04/2021 4:31 AM |
Postings begin at 5:30am EST
and updated throughout the day |
External Articles |
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ARTICLE |
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Tipping
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SOCIAL UNREST |
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Syrians protest in ‘Day of Martyrs’ - Tens of thousands take to streets demanding freedom |
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FT |
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Rival protests in Yemeni capital |
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FT |
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IRELAND |
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Bank Risk Breaking Back of Irish Government: Roubini - "They cannot keep on socializing losses and eventually having sovereign risk becoming banking risk and banking risk becoming sovereign risk, that's not the right approach." |
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CNBC |
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Ireland: A Dead Certainty for Default -Saddling the Irish public with even more unpayable debts from the banks is grotesquely unfair and economically stupid. Without the ability to devalue its currency it has used the only other weapon available to price its goods into world markets: Deflation. |
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Guardian Elliott |
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Irish bank problems push state closer to edge - The cost of servicing the national debt and the banks' debts has led to ever more stringent austerity packages, which have simply depressed the Irish economy further and created even greater bank write-offs and losses, adding to the vicious deflationary cycle. The interest rate on Ireland's national debt - more than 5 per cent on the EU/IMF rescue package - is also far in excess of Ireland's likely growth rate. Likewise Portuguese sovereign 10-year bond yields have climbed above 8.5 per cent and 5-year yields are at 9.3 per cent. |
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Independent |
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Bailouts an ominous sign
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G&M |
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Fact Book Ireland |
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Danske |
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IBERIAN PENINSULA: SPAIN / PORTUGAL |
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Portugal Sets Election to Stem Crisis as Bond Repayments Loom |
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BL |
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Increase in eurozone interest rates would be 'disaster' for Spain |
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Guardian |
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NATURAL PHYSICAL DISASTER |
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How Japan's Earthquake Will Shake the World - Japan's 9.0 earthquake will increase global inflationary pressure through means such as
- Bank of Japan's monetary expansion policy,
- disruptions for automobile and electronics industrial supply chains, and
- rising demand for fossil fuels.
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Xie |
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Tokyo finds new and fragile ‘normal’ - Life in capital transformed after Japanese earthquake |
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FT |
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Japan utility ordered to review radiation figures |
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AP |
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Gigantic concrete pumps will be airlifted from US to Japan |
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AP |
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Stabilizing nuclear plant to take years |
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FT |
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Exclusive: WANTED: U.S. workers for crippled Japan nuke plant |
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Reuters |
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Wall Street Banks Tap Physicists to Ease Tokyo Radiation Fear |
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BL |
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GEO-POLITCAL EVENT - North Africa & Middle East |
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Libyan rebels outline terms of ceasefire |
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FT |
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OIL PRICE PRESSURES |
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Oil futures break through $107 a barrel |
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MW |
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Saudi Government’s Break-Even Oil Price Rises $20 In A Year |
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WSJ |
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JAPAN DEBT SATURATION |
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Japan: Economic Aftershocks - Can there really be so little global impact from Japan's disaster? Why the bullish forecasters could be wrong' |
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BW |
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Lehman Shock’ Is Kid Stuff Next to Fukushima |
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Pesek |
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Japan Yosano: won't allow BOJ to underwrite govt bonds - "Such a thing is unthinkable and I will absolutely not allow it to happen" |
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Reuters |
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EU SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS |
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Is the cost of saving the euro beyond reach? - Many things that were unthinkable before the crisis:
- A financial stability mechanism,
- A proper system of surveillance,
- European Central Bank support for banking systems and bond markets,
- A new set of governance rules
Have in short order become part of the architecture of the single currency.
Merkel has become a lame-duck head of state who will in future largely be limited to no more than defending and pursuing the majority German view; Regarding Europe, that means
- No transfer union,
- No European bonds and
- No further expansion of the bailout fund.
There’s no public support for these things in the country, and they are in any case against its constitution. |
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Telegraph
Warner |
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Euro debt and the high cost of justice |
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Saft |
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USA |
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Debt Problem Grave, But Solution Elusive |
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Comstock |
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The Quiet Coup - The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States. The most alarming, says a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is that:
- The finance industry has effectively captured our government—a state of affairs that more typically describes emerging markets, and is at the center of many emerging-market crises.
- If the IMF’s staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells all countries in this situation: recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform.
- If we are to prevent a true depression, we’re running out of time.
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Simon Johnson |
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How Much is Too Much Public Debt? |
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Institutional Investor |
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China's March PMI of manufacturing sector rises |
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Xinhua |
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Chinese finance: A shadowy presence |
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FT |
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Subprime Bonds Are Back - The demand is so strong for these securities that even the Fed is taking advantage... |
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WSJ |
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Home Brings $100 Million |
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WSJ |
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This Time Had Better Be Different: House Prices and the Banks Part 1 |
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Keen Debtwatch |
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Housing Policies Backfire: Minority Ownership Dives |
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Investors |
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Fiscal policy and growth in light of the crisis |
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VOX |
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TO TOP |
Learn more about Gold & Silver-Backed, Absolute Return Alternative Investments
with these complimentary educational materials |
Other News Items of Importance |
GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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Heading for a double dip - Nobody in Washington or Wall Street wants to admit it, but the economy is leaning toward another plunge. The Reuters/University of Michigan survey shows a 10 point decline in March - the tenth largest drop on record. Part of that drop is attributable to rising fuel and food prices. A separate Conference Board's index of consumer confidence, just released, shows consumer confidence at a five-month low - and a large part is due to expectations of fewer jobs and lower wages in the months ahead. |
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Reich |
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US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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The Anatomy of a Slow Recovery - |
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Bradford DeLong |
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Manufacturing in U.S. Expands at Close to Seven-Year High |
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BL |
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U.S. Payrolls Grew 216,000 in March; Unemployment at 8.8% |
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BL |
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CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES |
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Foreign Banks Tapped Fed’s Secret Lifeline Most at Crisis Peak - The disclosures may stoke a reexamination of the risks posed to U.S. taxpayers by the central bank's role in global financial markets. |
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BL |
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Federal Reserve Lent To Gaddafi-Owned Bank, European Firms After Fighting Disclosure For 3 Years - At a time when credit markets shunned even the most worthy borrowers, foreign banks, including one partly-owned by Muammar Gaddafi's Libya, fled to the Federal Reserve and borrowed at rock-bottom interest rates |
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Huffington Post |
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To Lower The Debt Ceiling, Fix The Monetary System |
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Forbes |
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Nations discuss monetary reform |
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China Daily |
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Can the Fed Be Effective, Innovative -- and Independent? |
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Wharton |
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QE2: what happens when it ends? |
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FT |
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CURRENCY WARS |
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Stop The Madness: Make The Dollar As Good As Gold |
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Forbes |
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Elections and the Loonie |
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BMO |
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Currency Moves Highlight Global Divide - South Korea and Malaysia were believed to have intervened to slow the rise of their currencies Thursday... |
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WSJ |
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TECHNICALS & MARKET ANALYTICS |
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April is the No. 1 month for the Dow |
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USAT |
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Should you sell in April and go away? |
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Hulbert |
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Traders Worry That April 27 Could Derail the Bull Market |
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CNBC |
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Marc Faber: Still a Bear, and He Has His Reasons |
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CNBC |
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KKR, Carlyle Lead Best Quarterly Start for Buyout-Backed IPOs |
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BL |
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Dow Jones hits 33-month high on jobs |
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Dow Jones |
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Why investors overpay for certain assets |
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Economist |
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Top 10 'buy'-rated U.S. stocks under $5 |
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TheStreet |
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EM Stocks Are Not Attractively Valued |
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BCA Research |
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REDUCED STANDARDS OF LIVING |
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Pay, Profit, and Growth, Part 9 - Low wages take their toll |
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Lui |
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XXX |
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GENERAL INTEREST |
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Buffett Misses Chance to Show Moral Courage |
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Schroeder |
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Buffett's Heir Apparent Confused Personal Interest With Business Loyalty |
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Lenzner |
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On Wall St., what Sokol did is against the law |
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Crudele |
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Nasdaq, ICE Top Deutsche Boerse With $11.3 Billion NYSE Bid |
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BL |
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Understand the financial system first, then regulate it |
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FT |
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TO TOP |
Learn more about Gold & Silver-Backed, Absolute Return Alternative Investments
with these complimentary educational materials |
Featured Video |
China's Ghost Cities and Malls |
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Tou Tube |
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Appreciating the Tsunami - Upstream |
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Tou Tube |
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You Tube Restricted In Japan.Last Message From Man Living In Japan |
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YouTube |
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Scientist Leuren Moret - Japan earthquake and nuclear "accident" are tectonic nuclear warfare |
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YouTube |
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Steps to Getting the U.S. Fiscal House in Order - John Mauldin |
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Fox Video |
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Stunning New Footage Of Incoming Tsunami |
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TV Asahi |
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Stunning Video Of Reactor 3 Explosion |
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Japanese TV |
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Charles Nenner: A "Major War" Is Coming At The End Of 2012 |
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FOX |
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WTSHTF |
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MusicVid |
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Fed Chair Bernanke Weighs in on Defict Reduction Plans |

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C-SPAN |
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Bernanke Testimony: Monetary Policy Report before Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs |
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C-Span |
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Commodities Bull Run - Jim Rogers Interview |
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CNBC |
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Marc Faber McAlvany Interview 23 February 201 |
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YouTube |
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Warren Buffett Speaks |
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CNBC |
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Rosenberg Sees Recessionary Indicators for U.S. Economy |
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David Rosenberg |
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Ratigan & Sanders on the Fed |
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MSNBC |
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Bernanke's Record - QEII - Inflation |
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You Tube |
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Shiller Says Double-Dip Recession `More Probable' |
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BL |
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Fuzzy Numbers |
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Chris Martenson |
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Inflation |
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Chris Martenson |
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Overdose: The Next Financial Crisis |
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GRTV |
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Glenn Beck Uses Two Chalkboards To Explain The Crisis In Egypt |
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Glenn Beck |
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The Beginning Of Systemic Failure |
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Mike Ruppert |
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Bank Bailouts Explained |
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You Tube |
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A Scary Signal to the US - Marc Faber Interview- China Sending A Signal |
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Bloomberg |
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Anti-Tax Video Humor |
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North |
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'The Day After The Dollar Crashes - A Survival Guide for the Rise of the New World Order ' |
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YouTube |
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'America will collapse' After a collapse, the only thing left is crime. |
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Before Its News |
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SIMON JOHNSON: Bill Daley’s Appointment Proves "The Bankers Have Won" |
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TechTicker |
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The Next Ten Years: Three Drivers of the Political Economy |
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YouTube |
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Massachusetts Foreclosure Ruling: 'Landmark' |
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Bloomberg |
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Michael Hudson Interview |
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Real News |
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Looming Monetary Collapse - US Reserve Currency Crisis |
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Hunt - Stansberry |
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Niall Ferguson: Empires on the Edge of Chaos |
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Fora TV |
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Damaged Gulf Stream affects Jet Stream - Lord Stirling |
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U-Tube |
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TO TOP |
Featured Audio |
BOB SHILLER 02-24-11: Says Home Prices Could Fall Further |
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BL Surveillance |
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MARATHEFTIS 02-24-11: Saudi Arabia May Avoid Protests |
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BL Surveillance |
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EL-ERIAN 02-22-11: Political Unrests Add Stagflationary Winds |
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BL Surveillance |
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BOB HOYE 02-19-11: Window Of Effervescence |
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TalkDigital |
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JOHN RUBINO 02-16-11: Parabolic Inflation? |
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TalkDigital |
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TIM WOOD 02-16-11: Dow Theory Update - February |
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TalkDigital |
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Briefs |
Technical Analysis: Are We There Yet? |
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Gordon T Long |
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Ending Diagonal Dead Ahead |
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Gordon T Long |
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Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy |
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Gordon T Long |
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