THESIS 2011: Beggar-Thy Neighbor -(OPEN ACCESS - 37 Pages of 217)

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FEBRUARY 2012: MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY - (Subscription Plan II)

The European Central Bank's (ECB) unprecedented use of a three year, low cost LTRO (Long Term Repurchase Agreement) policy initiative may have removed some of the short term pressures from the EU Banking crisis, but like the Greenspan PUT, the unintended consequences are not yet fully understood. One is the moral hazard which is fostering financial "games" to be played with reckless abandon. Some of the mischievous and cunning games are frankly questionably as being even legal! But then, nothing is illegal if the regulators and those organizations charged with surveillance are not bothering to investigate. Extend > Pretend > Bend is the new approach. MORE>>

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The World Economic Forum's 2012 Risks Report, the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report and our proprietary Aggregated Global Risk Level Index (AGRLI) all suggest global macroeconomic risks are increasing. The consensus findings are that the center of gravity of Global Macro issues are a combination of Chronic Fiscal Imbalances and a Global Governance Failure.    MORE>> EXPANDED COVERAGE INCLUDING AUDIO & MONTHLY UPDATE SUMMARY

MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNO-FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

FEBRUARY 2012: MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - (Subscription Plan IV)

The market action since March 2009 is a bear market counter rally that has completed a classic ending diagonal pattern. The Bear Market which started in 2000 will resume in full force when the current "ROUNDED TOP" is completed. We presently are in the midst of of a "ROLLING TOP" across all Global Markets. We are seeing broad based weakening analytics and cascading warning signals. This behavior is typically seen during major tops.  This is all part of a final topping formation and a long term right shoulder technical construction pattern.

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>> LONGWave >> GOLD & SILVER: CRISIS or OPPORTUNITY?? December 15th, 2011

>> LONGWave >> VOLUME & VOLATILITY December 12th, 2011

>> LONGWave >> BEWARE OF EURO WEAKNESS October 25th, 2011

>> Under The Lens >> US ECONOMIC UPDATE October 22nd, 2011

>> Under The Lens >> EU FRENCH-GERMAN DISAGREEMENT October 21st, 2011

EURO EXPERIMENT :  ECB's LTRO Won't Stop Collateral Contagion! Released December 27th, 2011
I would argue that the problem short term is a shortage of real collateral and that US dollar cash, versus 'encumbered' cash flow, is now king. It is clear that the rampant advancing Collateral Contagion will quickly eat the futile LTRO attempt like ravenous wolves. A well circulated Tweet from PIMCO bond king Bill Gross said it all: " What does LTRO stand for? 1- A shell game; 2-Cash for trash; 3 Three-card Monti; or 4. All of the above." Here is the stark reality of what forced the ECB to offer unprecedented three year loans at absurd rates and most alarmingly, the acceptance of collateral that no other financial institutions will accept. The ECB has sacrificed its balance sheet in yet another EU "kick at the can". MORE>>

CURRENCY WARS:  EU: A FLAWED FOUNDATION, BUT A BRILLIANT STRATEGY Released May 31st, 2011
It was the perception of getting something of value without any meaningful sacrifice that initially fostered the EU Monetary Union. Though the countries of Europe were fiercely nationalistic they were willing to surrender minor sovereign powers  only if it was going to prove advantageous to them.  They were certainly  unwilling to relinquish sufficient sovereignty to create the requisite political union required for its success. After a decade long trial period it is now time to pay the price for Monetary Union.  I suspect that the EU membership is unwilling to do so. Though they likely will see the price as too high to do so, the price to not do so has become even greater.  They have unwittingly been trapped by a well crafted strategy. MORE>>

CURRENCY WARS:  The Economic Death Spiral Has Been Triggered Released May 27th, 2011
For nearly 30 years we have had two Global Strategies working in a symbiotic fashion that has created a virtuous economic growth spiral. Unfortunately, the economic underpinnings were flawed and as a consequence, the virtuous cycle has ended.  It is now in the process of reversing and becoming a vicious downward economic spiral. One of the strategies is the Asian Mercantile Strategy.  The other is the US Dollar Reserve Currency Strategy. These two strategies have worked in harmony because they fed off each other, each reinforcing the other. However, today the realities of debt saturation have brought the virtuous spiral to an end. MORE>>

CURRENCY WARS:  Debt Saturation & Money Illusion Released April 27th, 2011
Most of the clearly evident financial problems that surround us today stem from one cause - Debt Saturation. Most, intuitively, sense this to be a correct assessment but few can either prove it or articulate it to the less sophisticated. Let me arm you to be the "Nostradamus" amongst your friends and colleagues in explaining the problem and what the future therefore foretells. However, let me make it very clear, this will not make you popular. Smart maybe, but highly likely to make you unwanted at the social gatherings of the genteel. MORE>>

EU - DOWNGRADES

Moody's Downgrades Italy, Spain, Portugal And Others; Puts UK, France On Outlook Negative - Full Statement 02/14/12 Zero Hedge

• Austria: outlook on Aaa rating changed to negative
• France: outlook on Aaa rating changed to negative
• Italy: downgraded to A3 from A2, negative outlook
• Malta: downgraded to A3 from A2, negative outlook
• Portugal: downgraded to Ba3 from Ba2, negative outlook
• Slovakia: downgraded to A2 from A1, negative outlook
• Slovenia: downgraded to A2 from A1, negative outlook
• Spain: downgraded to A3 from A1, negative outlook
• United Kingdom: outlook on Aaa rating changed to negative

In other news, we wouldn't want to be the company that insured Moody's Milan offices

GREECE

Cracks in Agreement in Greece, Finland, Germany, France; Of Duct Tape, Glue, Rubber Bands 02/14/12 Mish

EU tries to finalise €130bn Greek bail-out 02/13/12 FT - Signs that Germany and allies may not approve deal

• Greek cabinet reshuffle expected
• UK and France named among EU’s ‘imbalanced’ economies
• Willem Buiter Greek concerns will resurface soon

Greece passes vote as violence erupts Austerity deal paves way for €130bn bail-out 02/13/12 FT

• Greece Passes Sweeping Cuts Lawmakers Approve Unpopular Plan to Secure Bailout as Rioting Grips Athens. 02/13/12 WSJ

The Troika Gave The Greeks An Offer They Can't Accept 02/12/12 BI

The Cost Of The Combined Greek Bailout Just Rose To €320 Billion In Secured Debt, Or 136% Of Greek GDP 02/12/12 Zero Hedge

• EL-ERIAN: Even EU Leaders Know This Greek Deal 'Will Only Last A Few Months At Best' 02/12/12 BI
• Greek lessons for the eurozone 02/12/12 Gavyn Davies
• Greece and Portugal ought to go bankrupt 02/12/12 Wolfgang Munchau

CHINA

China tells banks to roll over loans Large part of local government’s $1.7tn debt burden extended

• China extends loans to avoid mass default 02/12/12 FT

Chinese city forced into property U-turn Wuhu backtracks on plan to boost real estate after Beijing visit 02/13/12 FT

• Beijing office rents outstrip New York 02/13/12 FT
• Worries grow as China land sales slump 02/13/12 FT
• Beijing urged to bolster house sales 02/13/12 FT

GEO-POLITICAL EVENT - IRAN-ISRAEL

ISRAELI EMBASSIES ATTACKED IN THREE COUNTRIES, NETANYAHU BLAMES IRAN 02/13/12 BI

Bell Rings for Bond Bubble 02/14/12 Pento The mania behind the U.S. debt market has reached such incredible proportions that investors are now willing to lend money to the government at a loss

• Gross Buys Treasuries as Buffett Says Bonds Are ‘Dangerous’ 02/14/12 BL
• Ready for a bear market in bonds?02/14/12 Fleckenstein

Access to junk bond market revives LBOs ‘Walking dead’ companies get new access to funds

• Record global sales of junk bonds 02/12/12 FT
• Europeans turn to US junk bonds to renew loans 02/12/12 FT
• GRANTHAM: 'We Are Literally Running Out Of Superlatives To Describe How Much We Hate Bonds' 02/12/13 Grantham GMO Quarterly Letter

JAPAN

Bank of Japan Sprays World With Surprising ¥10 Trillion ($130B) Gift In Valentine's Day Liquidity 02/14/12 Zero Hedge - The Janapese central bank expanded their existing plan by ¥10 trillion, or about $130 billion. The facility, which includes low-cost loans, is now worth about ¥65 trillion, or $844 billion." The rub however lies in the total Japanese GDP, which at last check was $6 trillion (give or take), and declining. Which means this announcement was the functional equivalent to a surprise $325 billion QE announced by the Fed. What is ironic is the market reaction: the BOJ expands its LSAP by 18% and the USDJPY moves by 30 pips.

• Japan Announces $130 Billion QE Program, One Percent Inflation Target; 4th Quarter GDP Unexpectedly Contracts 2.3%; Lawmakers Threaten to Take Over Monetary Policy 02/14/12 Mish
• BOJ Adds to Monetary Easing After Contraction 02/14/12 BL

Japan’s GDP shrinks 2.3% in fourth quarter Economy squeezed by strong yen and low demand 02/13/12 FT

Housing Agency's Reserves at Risk The Federal Housing Administration could exhaust its reserves over the coming year, which would require a Treasury infusion for the first time in its 78-year history.

US BUDGET

Budget Backs 'Buffett Rule,' Targets AMT Obama proposed that the widely criticized alternative minimum tax be replaced by the so-called Buffett rule, which targets the wealthiest Americans.

Obama Plan Takes Aim at GOP Policies Obama used his $3.8 trillion fiscal 2013 budget proposal to attack Republican policies, underscoring the political stakes this year.

• Saturday Mail May End
• War-Spending Cap Sought
• Data: Budget Crunching
• Washington Wire: Updates
• Complete Coverage
• In His Budget, President Obama Backs A 'Responsibility Fee' For Financial Firms 02/13/12 BI
• 4 Charts Summarizing Obama's 2013 Budget 02/13/12 Zero Hedge
• Peak Political Polarization As Obama's Budget Increases Rhetoric 02/13/12 Zero Hedge
• Obama Presents His 2013 Proposed Budget - Live Webcast 02/13/12 Zero Hedge

• Jeffrey Sachs An American budget for the rich and powerful
• Obama sets out his budget priorities
• FT Alphaville $1tn US spending cuts

Obama Proposes Massive Tax Hikes, Still Comes Up With $1.33 Trillion Deficit; Obama's "Race to the Bottom" Education Proposal; Dysfunctional Congress 02/13/12 Mish

NEWS ANALYSIS

• Politics trumps policy in Obama 02/13/12 CNN
• Budget quagmire revealed by Social Security disability program Samuelson

Market Volume Hits Fresh Non-Holiday Decade Lows 02/14/12 Zero Hedge - Today's NYSE volume (16% below the year's average volume) is the lowest on Bloomberg data for a non-Holiday day in over a decade. ES (the e-mini S&P futures contract) also had a dismal day with the day's total just beating February 6th previous multi-year low (non-holiday) volume and 30% below the 50-day average volume.

SOCIAL UNREST

Athens On Sunday Night - Pictures 02/13/12 BI

Athens erupts in violent protests MPs wait to vote on austerity deal as buildings burn

ATHENS IS ABLAZE: Parliament Prepares To Vote On Austerity

• Athens Burning As Police Runs Out Of Tear Gas 02/12/12 Zero Hedge

MAULDIN: The Truth Is It Doesn't Matter Who's President -- We'd Be Screwed Regardless

SocGen: QE3 Is Coming Soon, But First The S&P Is Going To Tank 02/13/12 BI

From To Email Sent!You have successfully emailed the post. It Feels Like Something Is About To Happen

Shifting Landscape in Presidential Race Subtly but significantly, two forces—an improving economy and the emergence of social issues as a prime topic—are converging to shift the ground beneath the 2012 campaign.