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MARCH 2012: MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY - (Subscription Plan II)

The European Central Bank's (ECB) unprecedented use of a three year, low cost LTRO (Long Term Repurchase Agreement) policy initiative may have removed some of the short term pressures from the EU Banking crisis, but like the Greenspan PUT, the unintended consequences are not yet fully understood. One is the moral hazard which is fostering financial "games" to be played with reckless abandon. Some of the mischievous and cunning games are frankly questionably as being even legal! But then, nothing is illegal if the regulators and those organizations charged with surveillance are not bothering to investigate. Extend > Pretend > Bend is the new approach. MORE>>

MARCH 2012: GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINTS -(Subscription Plan III)

The Obama Budget is A Campaign Budget. Nothing changes until after the fall election and precisely on december 31st, 2012. Suspect budget assumptions and and the outcome on this date will make a $5T difference over 10 years. The markets will not wait and be hedl hostage to the outcome. The World Economic Forum's 2012 Risks Report, the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report and our proprietary Aggregated Global Risk Level Index (AGRLI) all suggest that like the US, global macroeconomic risks are increasing. The consensus findings are that the center of gravity of Global Macro issues are a combination of Chronic Fiscal Imbalances and a Global Governance Failure. We submit the US Budget as evidence of the later.   

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MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNO-FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

MARCH 2012: MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - (Subscription Plan IV)

The market action since March 2009 is a bear market counter rally that has completed a classic ending diagonal pattern. The Bear Market which started in 2000 will resume in full force when the current "ROUNDED TOP" is completed. We presently are in the midst of of a "ROLLING TOP" across all Global Markets. We are seeing broad based weakening analytics and cascading warning signals. This behavior is typically seen during major tops.  This is all part of a final topping formation and a long term right shoulder technical construction pattern.

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>> LONGWave >> VOLUME & VOLATILITY December 12th, 2011

EURO EXPERIMENT :  ECB's LTRO Won't Stop Collateral Contagion! Released December 27th, 2011
I would argue that the problem short term is a shortage of real collateral and that US dollar cash, versus 'encumbered' cash flow, is now king. It is clear that the rampant advancing Collateral Contagion will quickly eat the futile LTRO attempt like ravenous wolves. A well circulated Tweet from PIMCO bond king Bill Gross said it all: " What does LTRO stand for? 1- A shell game; 2-Cash for trash; 3 Three-card Monti; or 4. All of the above." Here is the stark reality of what forced the ECB to offer unprecedented three year loans at absurd rates and most alarmingly, the acceptance of collateral that no other financial institutions will accept. The ECB has sacrificed its balance sheet in yet another EU "kick at the can". MORE>>

SPAIN - "Admitted" Government Debt to GDP 113%

Spanish Banks Account for 47% of ECB Credit in February; Spain's Real Debt to GDP Ratio is 110% Not Reported 68%; Spain Will Implode. It's a Wonder it Hasn't Already 03/17/12 Mish

• Spanish Debt Load Hits New High 03/16/12 WSJ
• Overnight Bizarro Futures Levitation Driven By Spanish Balance Sheet Deterioration 03/16/12 Zero Hedge - More disturbing is the "austerity" report out of Spain, where we just learned that total public debt has hit €735 billion at the end of 2011, with regions debt at €140.1 billion, which means that public debt rose to 68.5% of GDP, from 61.2% a year prior.  As Peter Tchir says: "We are still in no one cares mode, but the exposure the core has to the periphery is growing by the day.  Germany's exposure is growing because of Target 2, and Spain and Italy are busy guaranteeing the debt of their banks. On the surface, all is calm. Below the surface it is messier than ever.  They are doing everything possible to keep that mess covered because if it rises to the surface, it will be harder to control than ever before." As a reminder, this is precisely what happened in early 2011... and early 2010. You can only keep trillions of underwater debt under the rug for so long.
• Unravelling Europe's Epic Ponzi Pyramid Of Lies 03/16/12 Marg Grant

If we just take the newest figures for Spain, which were released this morning, we find an admitted sovereign debt of $732Bn and a touted debt to GDP ratio of 68.5% which is up 10.7% from last year.

In a report issued on 2/29/12 and apparently ignored by everyone including the ratings agencies, Eurostat reports that Spain has total sovereign guarantees of “other debt” which is 7.5% of their total GDP which would total around another $72.2 billion in uncounted debt. Then if we consider [all] the “known” debt we find:

• Admitted Sovereign Debt ................. $732 Billion
• Admitted Regional Debt ................... $183 Billion
• Admitted Bank Guaranteed Debt ..... $103 Billion
• Admitted Other Guaranteed Debt .... $72 Billion
• Total Admitted Debt ......................... $1.09 Trillion
• A More Accurate Debt to GDP Ratio ....... 113.2%

The Spanish bank accounts for half of the credit requested the ECB in February 03/14/12 El Pais (Google TRanslation)

February Spanish Bank Borrowings From ECB Rise To Record 03/14/12 Zero Hedge

SPAIN - Housing Bubble Imploding

Spanish House Prices Tumble Sharply 03/16/12 WSJ - Spanish house prices tumbled at their fastest pace on record in the fourth quarter, a sign that a long-running property bust will continue to weigh on Spanish households and banks. House prices fell on average by 11.2% in the fourth quarter from the same period a year earlier, well below the 7.4% decline in the third quarter, while prices of used homes was down 13.7% in the period. The drop indicates Spanish property prices are now correcting at a similar pace to that seen in the U.S. soon after the 2008 financial crisis, and may fall further at least this year. In previous quarters, price drops were somewhat contained, the result of support efforts by the government and banks, fearful of the effect of a housing collapse.

• Spanish Housing Re-Plunging 03/16/12 Zero Hedge

US HOUSING - In Real Value Terms

Chart of the Day 03/16/12 - The inflation-adjusted median price of a single-family home in the United States over the past 42 years. Not only did housing prices increase at a rapid rate from 1991 to 2005, the rate at which housing prices increased -- increased. That brings us to today's chart which illustrates how the inflation-adjusted median home price is currently 42% off its 2005 peak. That's a $112,000 drop. In fact, a home buyer who bought the median priced single-family home at the 1979 peak has actually seen that home lose value (13.7% loss). Not an impressive performance considering that more than three decades have passed. It is worth noting that the median priced home is currently at the bottom of a price range that existed from the late 1970s into the mid-1990s.

CBO - Whistleblower

Explosive Letter About A Coverup At The CBO 03/16/12 BI

• CBO Allegedly Fired An Economist After She Exposed Fraud In Mortgage Securities 03/16/12 Janet Tavakoli

JP MORGAN - Whistleblower

JP Morgan Whistleblower States JP Morgan Manipulates Silver & Gold Futures 03/15/12 Silver Doctors - A JP Morgan insider has released insider information on the CFTC's website regarding the manipulation of gold and silver futures by JP Morgan that he calls 'damning at best for JP Morgan', also states that JPM is fearful of a cascading credit event being triggered in Greece as JPM has hidden derivatives in excess of $1 TRILLION USD, and confirms that JPM is involved with hiding client assets from MF Global.

• Everyone Is Passing Around This 'Whistleblower' Letter Claiming To Know About Market Manipulation At JPMorgan 03/16/12 BI
• CFTC Pulls JPM Whistleblower Letter 03/16/12 Zero Hedge CFTC Page Link CFTC

GOLDMAN SACHS - "MuppetGate" Whistleblower

Why The Hottest Attack On Greg Smith Is Total Nonsense 03/15/12 BI

• Executive Director of Goldman Sachs Resigns Over Parasitic Behavior of Goldman to Its Clients; Reflections on Chasing Performance 03/16/12 Mish
• Frank Partnoy: Goldman’s ‘muppets’ need proper treatment 03/16/12 FT
• Since Morgan Stanley CEO Thinks Greg Smith's Op-Ed Was "Unfair", Here Are Some Questions 03/16/12 Zero Hedge
• From One Ex-Goldmanite To Another- Nomi Prins Statement On Greg Smith's Resignation 03/16/12 Zero Hedge
• Goldman Again Selling Russell 2000 To Muppets 03/16/12 Zero Hedge
• Muppet-Gate Meets Blank-Berg 03/16/12 Zero Hedge

Goldman debt deal that comes due in 10 years. The debt is now being referred to as "the Muppet 22s." 03/16/12

MALFEASANTS - Growing Disease

SEC vs. Capital Creation 03/16/12 WSJ

• There's Almost Nothing Money Can't Buy, And It's Corrupting Us 03/16/12 BI
• The Final Nail In The Economic Coffin 03/16/12 Economic Noice
• Wall Street Pimps and Whores Story Extends Far Beyond Goldman Sachs- Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, All Guilty 03/16/12 Mish
• Why is Wall Street full of psychopaths 03/16/12 The Week

More Than Culture Shifted On Wall Street 03/16/12 WSJ - As shown by research conducted by New York University economist Thomas Philippon, the cost of financial intermediation—what the financial sector charges the rest of the economy for its services—began a move around 2000 that would take it by 2010 to its highest level in 140 years. That is odd since the advent of information technology should have lowered costs. Worrisomely, finance still looks too big. In 2010, its share of U.S. gross domestic product was 8.5%. Last year's decline in bonuses for financial workers suggests it is probably a smidgen smaller now. But it will need to shrink more to reach the 7% to 7.5% that Mr. Philippon reckons is reasonable.

ECB - LTRO Masks Spanish & Italian (SPIT) Capital Flight

Is The ECB Masking Accelerating Deposit Flight In Italy And Spain? 03/12/12 Zero Hedge - While LTRO may have slowed the need for immediate asset sales and larger deleveraging in European banks, the two most significantly worrying trend concerns remain front-and-center - those of deposit flight and lending cuts. The latter remains a concern for the BIS, who note in their recent report, that lending curtailment by European banks focused primarily on risky (non-sovereign) and USD-denominated (EM mostly) debt as banks sought to reduce risk-weighted assets (RWA) to meet Basel III capital rules. It would appear though that banks remain in deleveraging (asset sale) mode, in anticipation of the end of ECB facilities down the road, which will become increasingly troublesome given the encumbrance of so many of their assets already by the ECB itself. What is most concerning though is the dramatic and accelerating deposit outflows from not just Greece but Italy and Spain (which just happen to be by far the largest 'takers' of LTRO loans).  

Spanish and Italian (SPIT) banks dominated the use of the ECB's LTRO facilities, while Finland/Germany/Luxembourg (FINGEL) banks took only modest amounts...

As most importantly - Deposits are flooding out of SPIT banks...

COLLATERAL CONTAGION - Balance Sheet Encumberance

Why Europe Is Running Out Of Assets - Encumberance 03/12/12 Zero Hedge By demanding collateral for their bottomless pit of low-interest loans, the ECB has not only reduced banks' necessary deleveraging needs (and/or capital raising) but has increased risk for all bond-holders (and implicitly equity holders, who are the lowest of the low in the capital structure remember) as the assets underlying the value of bank balance sheets are now increasingly encumbered to the ECB. Post LTRO, Barclays notes that several banking-systems (PIIGS) now have encumbered over 15% of their balance sheets but LTRO merely extends a broader trend among European banks (pledging collateral in return for funding) and on average (even excluding LTRO) 21% of European bank assets are now encumbered, and therefore unavailable for unsecured bond holders, ranging from over 50% at Danske (more a business model choice with covered bonds) to around 1% for Standard Chartered. As the liquidity-fueled euphoria starts to be unwound, perhaps this list of likely stigmatized banks is the place to look for higher beta exposure to the downside (especially as we see EC B margin calls start to pick up).

Whether it be their direct actions with Greece (specifically subordinating the world) or their indirect actions with LTRO collateral needs, the systemic risk of Europe's banking/sovereign credit system is far higher now than it was before (and credit markets have already begun to adjust to this new reality - senior spread decompression, recent sovereign underperformance, and LTRO-Stigma - even if equities remain dumbstruck with the implicit print-fest - though very recently European financial equities have joined the credit drop more closely).

SPAIN & PORTUGAL - Next Up!

Euro-Zone Officials Press Spain for Deal 03/13/12 WSJ

• Brussels Presses Spain for Budget Details on How Spain Will Reduce Deficit to 3% of GDP; Threatens 2 Billion Euros Fine 03/13/12 FT
• Spain pressed to cut more from its budget 03/13/12 FT
• Spain's Two Largest Unions Call for General Strike; Mood of the Nation 03/12/12 Mish
• Portugal Gradually Shuffles Through the Debt Queue 03/12/12 Economic Monitor
• Portugal's Government Should Follow Greece's Example on Debt Relief- View 03/12/12 BL

CHINA - Record Trade Deficit

China Trade Deficit Spurs Concern 03/12/12 WSJ The weekend report of a $31.5 billion trade deficit in China for February was substantially larger than most analysts expected and followed a string of other disappointing economic data, including weak growth in car sales, industrial production and retail sales, and the continuation of a steep fall in property sales. The only bright economic star was that inflation slackened more rapidly than expected.

• China Posts A Record-Shattering Trade Deficit For February 03/12/12 BI
• Tough medicine and a hard landing for China 03/12/12 Credit Writedowns China Posts Biggest Trade Deficit Since 1989 As Crude Imports Surge- Is China Recycling Export Dollars Solely Into Oil 03/12/12 Zero Hedge

RISK - Data Trend Index

US Data Trend Index 03/15/12 Zero Hedge

The strength of trend of key US data over the past three months has been disappointing in aggregate. Tthe next time you hear some long-only asset manager or octogenarian wealth adviser say the 'data has been very strong' so buy-and-hold big-tech or dividend-payers, do them a favor and remind them of this chart and what happened last year.

MONEY SUPPY - US M2 Falling

M2 Money Velocity Plunges Most Since 1959 03/13/12 Danielle Park - Pimco’s Bill Gross tweeted yesterday that the Fed is contemplating an announcement next month of QE3. He cites no source or evidence other than the assertion that the Fed will be forced to keep buying bonds that no one else wants. The VIX plunged yesterday perhaps on similar rumors. This would likely prove highly incendiary of already inflated and particularly controversial announced within months of the next US Presidential election. Many, including UK Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, have argued the Fed cannot roll out more QE this year for these very reasons.  See: Global liquidity peak spells trouble for late 2012.

But as the Eurozone moves deeper into recession and Chinese exports plummet, perhaps this next chart is the fire under the Fed. US money supply, both M1 and M2 have flattened so far this year, even contracted slightly in recent weeks, while velocity has plunged, with the M2 gauge dropping below 1.6 last week for the first time since records began in 1959 as shown in the chart from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis below. The manic swings of the dying credit bubble continue to plague and haunt the global economy.

• Goldman: "Expect The New QE As Soon As April" 03/15/12 Zero Hedge
• Quantitative easing is the only game in town 03/16/12 Martin Wolf - FT

US BANK STRESS TEST -

FEDERAL RESERVE RELEASE

Methodology and Results for Stress Scenario Projections (PDF)

The Fed said 18 of the 19 financial firms it tested retained a large enough capital buffer to continue lending in a steep downturn, defined in part as one in which housing prices and stock markets tumble sharply, and unemployment climbs to 13%. (Current unemployment is around 8.3%.) However, the Fed said at least four of the 19—Citigroup, Ally Financial Inc., MetLife Inc. and SunTrust Banks Inc.—would have to resubmit their capital plans to the Fed, amounting to a de facto rejection of their dividend or stock-buyback plans. Ally Financial was the sole institution to fall short of the test's capital requirements even without any proposed dividend payments or other capital distributions.

• Stress Tests Buoy U.S. Banks Most Big Firms Have Healthy Capital; Some Raise Dividends 03/14/12 WSJ
• Banks pass but Fed test comes under fire 03/14/12 FT
• Banks shored up by stress test success 03/14/12 FT
• Who failed the test 03/14/12 FT Alphaville
• Video- Fed Releases Latest 'Stress Test' Results 03/13/12 WSJ
• Fed Unveils Doomsday Scenario for Banks 03/13/12 CNBC
• Citi Fails Test, And Won't Be Allowed To Return Capital To Shareholders 03/13/12 BI

Stress Tests for Zombies?Why Low Interest Rate Policy Does Not Work 03/13/12 Bob Brusca - Institutional Risk Analyst

JP MORGAN - The US Treasury's Bank

Demonstrates it is More Powerful than the FEDERAL RESERVE & US TREASURY

How J.P. Morgan Chase Scooped The Fed 03/13/12 WSJ - The Fed told many of the nation's largest banks around midday Tuesday that it would announce stress-test results at 4:30 p.m. EDT, after the close of the New York Stock Exchange, and that banks could issue news releases about increasing their dividends or share buybacks after the Fed's release. But J.P. Morgan, the nation's largest bank, issued a news release at 3:04 p.m. outlining its results and plans. Its shares jumped 7% after the release and pulled up other bank stocks. The next bank to disclose that it had passed the test was U.S. Bancorp at 3:58 p.m., just before the market close. Several rival banks said they received instructions from the Fed to stay quiet until the central bank put out its own results for all 19 banks covered by the latest stress test. An executive at one rival bank said the bank was instructed by the Fed "not to tell anyone" the results. The banks said they were frustrated by J.P. Morgan's release because they felt they were playing by the Fed's rules.

• Did Jamie Dimon Just Diss the Fed? 03/13/12 CNBC
• Fed To Accelerate Stress Test Result Release Following JP Morgan Disclosure 03/13/12 Zero Hedge
• Here's What Really Happened Today When JP Morgan Announced Its New Dividend 03/13/12 BI
• Jamie Dimon Just Pulled The Ultimate Power Move On Ben Bernanke 03/13/12 BI
• Jamie Dimon Sees No Need To Wait For Stress Test Release- Announces Dividend Hike, Stock Buyback 03/13/12 Zero Hedge

SHADOW BANKING SYSTEM COLLAPSE - Still a $3.5 Trillion Hole

Here Is Why The Fed Will Have To Do At Least Another $3.6 Trillion In Quantitative Easing 03/15/12 Zero Hedge - While equities may have returned to 2008 valuations, the credit shortfall across combined US liabilities - traditional and shadow - still has a $3.6 trillion hole to plug to get to the level from March 2008. It is this hole that is giving equities, which have already surpassed 2008 levels, nightmares. Because while the Fed is pumping traditional commercial banks balance sheets via reserve expansion (read: fungible money that manifests itself most directly in $5 gas at the pump) resulting in a $2.3 trillion rise in traditional liabilities from Q3 2008 through Q4 2011, what it is not accounting for is the now 15 consecutive quarters of shadow banking system contraction, which peaked at $21 trillion in Q1 2008, and in Q4 2011 declined to $15.1 trillion... and dropping. It is this differential that will be the source of the needed "Outside" money. It is this collapse that the Fed has yet to tackle, and it is the offset of this collapse which the equity market has somehow already priced in!

Consider: Who will step in to buy (not China) considering there is about $6 trillion in net new US debt issuance over the next 4 years?

US DEBT - Non-Financial Bond Dash

Non-financials dash to the bond markets 03/12/12 FT

• Dollar bond rush sets record pace for deals 03/12/12 FT
• Corporate bond trading volumes pick up 03/12/12 FT
• Corporate Debt 03/12/12 FT
• Bond Opportunity Amid Debt Debacle 03/12/12 WSJ

US TREASURIES - US Bond Yields Make Major Move > UP

Treasuries Hammered as "Operation Twist" Unwinds; Another Triumph of the 1% Over the 99% 03/14/12 Mish - The Fed's real goal was not the stated mission, the real goal was to find still more ways to bail out banks at taxpayer expense. The Fed clearly succeeded in the real mission. This is yet another triumph of the 1% over the 99%

An Alternative View On Recent Treasury Weakness 03/14/12 Zero Hedge - Its supply-and-demand stupid. The last few weeks have seen massive, record-breaking amounts of investment grade USD-based corporate bond issuance, at the same time dealer inventories for corporate bonds are at multi-year lows and Treasury holdings at all-time-highs. In general to underwrite the massive corporate bond issuance, dealers will place rate-locks (or short Treasuries/Swaps in various ways) to control the yield and sell the idea of the 'spread' to clients (which is where most real-money buyers will be focused on value. We suggest that the almost unprecedented corporate issuance and therefore need for rate-locks has provided a significant offer for Treasuries that the dealers (who are loaded) and the Fed (who is only minimally involved) was unable to suppress. The key question, going forward, is whether the expectations of a much lower issuance calendar will relieve this marginal offer in Treasuries and allow rates to revert back down?

CURRENCIES - Yen Shows Major Weakness > DOWN

Will JPY Devaluation Disrupt Global Growth? 03/14/12 Zero Hedge - Seemingly hidden from the mainstream media's attention, the last six weeks has seen the second largest devaluation in the JPY since Sakakibara's days in the mid-90s. This has to be putting pressure on Japan's Asian neighbors - not least the engine of the world China. Furthermore, JPY on a trade-weighted basis has cracked through all the major moving averages and sits critically at its post-crisis up-trendline. JPY weakness and the carry trade may not be quite as hand in hand if rates start to reflect any behavioral biases, inflation (or more critically hyperinflation) concerns any time soon. The six-week devaluation in JPY (spike up) is the second largest since the mid 1990s...

Yen's Weakening Likely to Gain Steam 03/15/12 WSJ

1. Global Prospects (sell Yen to buy foreign opportunities),
2. BOJ's unorthodox easing measures,
3. Losing "Safe-Haven' status,
4. Non-Japanese Hedge Funds (=9.3% US$ v Yen)
5. A broad yen-bearish view that the BOJ, under continuing political pressure, will take additional easing measures ahead,
6. Japan's trade picture is now expected to remain deeply in the red after years of surpluses fed by the country's exporters,
7. A dollar-bullish sentiment is growing fast as recently rosy U.S. economic indicators have prompted investors to bet that the Fed may terminate its accommodative policy stance earlier than the promised 2014,
8. Japanese institutional investors are expected to join the party after the start of the new fiscal year on April 1. Domestic life insurance firms and other institutions are expected to start buying overseas assets without the heavy currency hedging they have previously undertaken on the back of widening interest-rate gaps between Japan and the U.S. A wider interest rate gap means higher hedging costs,
9. Mrs. Watanabe—as Japanese retail margin investors are known— shouldn't be discounted. "We've been buying the yen until recently, but now it's the dollar we are stocking up on," said Yukio Nakamura, a veteran retail investor.
   

"What we are seeing is a big change where every underlying flow is reversing course," said Koji Fukaya, chief currency strategist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo. "In this type of market, a discussion on whether the speed is too fast or not is really of no use."

GLOBAL GROWTH - More Signs of Slowing

Not Buying The 'Global Recovery' Risk Rally 03/13/12 Zero Hedge

Economic Surprise Indices are all rolling over - Reality is not meeting Analyst/Market Expectations...

Energy Demand is dropping rapidly - suggesting that 1) global economic recovery is stalling (or magically growth has become energy independent), and 2) central bank intervention (and geopolitical tensions in their somewhat circular fashion) has led to demand destruction quicker than many would have hoped.

EARNINGS CONCERNS - Slowing Global Growth

Goldman's Top Strategist Gives 3 Reasons Why The S&P 500 Will Fall To 1,250 03/13/12 BI - The S&P 500 closed at about 1,370 at the end of last week, exceeding David Kostin's target of 1,250 for the end of 2012. Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg TV that he is sticking by his forecast despite the S&P's recent run.

FOMC MEETING - QE3 Coming

FED STATEMENT

Fed Is 'Playing a Game With Us:' Pimco's Gross 03/13/12 CNBC - The Federal Reserve "is playing a game with us to some extent" by maintaining low interest rates, Pimco founder Bill Gross told CNBC, who also expects another round of quantitative easing. - "I think the Fed will continue to do this for a long time and subordinate investors in the bond market," said Gross, who runs the world's largest bond fund.

• SocGen: Tuesday's FOMC was "as good as it gets" for QE3 hopefuls 03/13/12 Zero Hedge
• Rubin Says He Has Too Many Dollars 13 Years After Departing U.S. Treasury 03/13/12 BL - “QE1 was a necessity, QE2 I sort of wondered about...QE3 would accomplish very little”

FOMC MEETING - Will Fed Signal Inflation Concerns?

Economic Outlook- Fed set to dash QE3 hopes 03/12/12 FT

• Fed set to keep policy unchanged 03/12/12 FT
• Bullish US jobs data will give Fed pause 03/12/12 Gavyn Davies
• Get ready to be disappointed with sterilized QE3 03/12/12 Automatic Earth
• Fed Leaves Investors Twisting With Risk 03/13/12 WSJ

APPLE - A Sign of Fewer Places to Place Money

Chart Of Apple Looks Exactly Like Google Did Right Before The Economy Completely Melted Down 03-15-12 Doug Kass

It's Official - Apple Is Now Bigger Than The Entire US Retail Sector 03/16/12 Zero Hedge

A company whose value is dependent on the continued success of two key products, now has a larger market capitalization (at $542 billion), than the entire US retail sector (as defined by the S&P 500).

Technical Chart Says That Apple Is Getting Ready To Tank 03/15/12 BI

FINANCIAL REPRESSION - Carmen M Reinhart

Financial Repression Back to Stay: Carmen M. Reinhart 03/12/12 BL Unlike income, consumption or sales taxes, the “repression” tax rate is determined by factors such as financial regulations and inflation performance, which are opaque -- if not invisible -- to the highly politicized realm of fiscal policy.

FINANCIAL REPRESSION - Fake Wealth Creation

Money from Nothing - A Primer On Fake Wealth Creation And Its Implications (Part 1) 03/13/12 Charles Hugh Smith

FINANCIAL REPRESSION - A "Nominal Policy" Vehicle

The Fed's Manipulation Of The Market Is Driving TrimTabs' Charles Biderman "Even More Nuts Than He Already Is" 03/10/12 Zero Hedge - "Individuals are net sellers of US equities and have been for years, probably because they need to pay bills and stuff. So how are they able to do that and get decent prices without the stock market cracking. Well simple the Federal Reserve has been printing huge amounts of money and that ultimately has been boosting the value of US equities, and therefore the sellers can sell.

We Have No Other Choice 03/16/12 Charles Hugh Smith

STATISM - Revisionist History and Propaganda

Fed To Take Propaganda To The Schoolroom: Will Teach Grade 8-12 Students About Constitutionality Of... The Fed 03/13/12 Zero Hedge

Constitutionality of Central Bank  

STATISM - Is Democracy Working?

Scientists say America is too dumb for democracy to thrive 03/12/12 San Francisco Chronicle - Work by Cornell University psychologist David Dunning and then-colleague Justin Kruger found that “incompetent people are inherently unable to judge the competence of other people, or the quality of those people’s ideas,” according to a report by Life’s Little Mysteries on the blog LiveScience.

According to Dunning-Kruger, no matter how much information is provided, the unsophisticated would:

1. be incapable of recognizing the wisdom of such a plan;
2. assume they know better; and
3. have no idea of the extent of their inadequacy.

What’s worse is that with incompetence comes the illusion of superiority. In other words, stupid people are too stupid to know how stupid they are. It would appear then that democracy dooms us to mediocrity and misinformed choices.