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APRIL 2012: MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY - (Subscription Plan II)

The European Central Bank's (ECB) unprecedented use of a three year, low cost LTRO (Long Term Repurchase Agreement) policy initiative may have removed some of the short term pressures from the EU Banking crisis, but like the Greenspan PUT, the unintended consequences are not yet fully understood. One is the moral hazard which is fostering financial "games" to be played with reckless abandon. Some of the mischievous and cunning games are frankly questionably as being even legal! But then, nothing is illegal if the regulators and those organizations charged with surveillance are not bothering to investigate. Extend > Pretend > Bend is the new approach. MORE>>

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The market action since March 2009 is a bear market counter rally that has completed a classic ending diagonal pattern. The Bear Market which started in 2000 will resume in full force when the current "ROUNDED TOP" is completed. We presently are in the midst of of a "ROLLING TOP" across all Global Markets. We are seeing broad based weakening analytics and cascading warning signals. This behavior is typically seen during major tops.  This is all part of a final topping formation and a long term right shoulder technical construction pattern.

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GENERATIONAL CYCLES - with Charles Hugh Smith (YouTube Video)

GREEK ELECTIONS - No Firm "Pro-Baliout" Government Can Emerge

Goldman's Bearish Take 05/06/12 Zero Hedge

SITUATION

1. It is unclear whether the first party New Democracy and (what appears to be the third party) PASOK occupy enough seats in the parliament to form a majority (jointly accounting for roughly 35.5% of the vote).
2. Even if they do, they will do so with a marginal vote share and they may need more parties to join in, in order to form a broader coalition government.
3. The "radical left" (SYRIZA), with its clear anti-austerity agenda (but not an anti Europe agenda), is the second party in terms of votes and becomes a key “power-broker” among the anti-austerity powers of the left and the right (radical left accounts for 16.5% of the vote roughly).
4. Parties of the far right (Independent Greeks and Golden Dawn) appear to occupy a large portion of the next parliament jointly (counting for more than 15% of the vote).

The foggy political situation in Greece stands in stark contrast to the immediate decisions that need to be taken in the next two months. As we mentioned in our Friday note (European Views: A Preview of Greece Elections), for the next government, we believe:

1. A decision will need to be made for the Greek international-law bond maturing on the 15th of May the owners of which have held out from the PSI process. The outstanding notional is not large (about EUR430mn) but the broader implications of a no-payment decision are unknown.
2. Second, by June, budget cuts worth about 11.5bn EUR for the rest of the program period will need to be specified. There is little room left in the budget to promote such an adjustment without affecting public sector wages and pensions. Beyond the funds for PSI and for a partial recapitalization of the banking system, the rest of the funds from the second package remain undisbursed. Undisbursed funds for 7bn EUR worth of arrears (roughly speaking) and for the primary position of Greece will be important for the domestic economy.
3. Third, pressure from international lenders will likely shift on product market reforms going forward. This implies a focus on privatizations, opening up closed professions, reducing barriers to entry for new enterprises, reducing assured profit margins for various sectors etc. This is a crucial part of the recovery process for Greece and stalling those would likely deepen the recession.
4. Fourth and final, the recapitalization of the banking system in a format that makes it easy for banks to attract private capital in the future needs to move forward in a short time-span to safeguard financial stability.

SUMMARY

• A resounding lack of a pro-bailout coalition government. The two big pro-austerity parties got a stunningly low 32% of the vote, meaning that the overwhelming intention of voters was "anti-programme" (against the existing austerity deal). That makes it extremely unlikely that the current cuts-for-bailouts deal can go ahead easily. Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/duetsche-bank-on-greek-elections-2012-5#ixzz1uAlHsjbo
• When the people have lost everything they are free to do anything - as they did,
• ND + Pasok have 149 as of 300. Two SHORT of a WEAK majority
• The anti-bailout parties will have among them nearly 60% of the finaly vote which means they could form an anti-bailout coalition if they buried their diferences.
• A more likely outcome is that a broader coalition government is built, but with an explicit mandate to renegotiate the bailout, instantly creating Euro-wide uncertainty
  

• The Banks' Nightmare Is Coming True- Greek Left Calls For Anti-Bailout Coalition 05/07/12 Zero Hedge
• 16% of the new Greek parliament is Nazis and communists 05/06/12 BI
• Neo-Nazis Winning Seats In The Greek Parliament, And This Famous Chart Is Proving Apt Once Again 05/06/12 BI
• Deutsche Bank Explains What Just Happened In Greece, And Why Markets Are Getting Hammered Tonight 05/06/12 BI
• Nouriel Roubini Has A LOT To Say About The Greek Election 05/06/12 BI

FRENCH ELECTIONS - Goes Left on Record Unemployment

IT'S OFFICIAL: Hollande Defeats Sarkozy 05/06/12 BI

• Polls showed Hollande with 52 to 53 percent of the vote in an election that turned on solutions for Europe's economic crisis amid record unemployment in France.
• Hollande, has said he's opposed to the Eurozone's existing (but unsigned) fiscal compact, which effectively bans fiscal stimulus. He also favors more ECB involvement, higher taxes domestically, and generally a stance towards growth.
• More significantly, perhaps, is that Merkozy is no more.
• Meet President Hollande 05/06/12 Zero Hedge
• Sarkophagus: Hollande Wins French Presidency 05/06/12 Zero Hedge