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MACRO ECONOMIC & RISK ANALYSIS |
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 MAY 2012: GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINT - (Subscription Plan III)
The Global Markets have reached the point of what can be best labeled as "Elevated Risk". Analytics measurements including Fundamenal Analysis, Techncial Analysis and Risk Anlysis all are independently signalling this along with warnings. This months report lays out the Risk Assessment, Risk Levels as determined by our proprietary aggregated Global Financial Risk Index, changes in Tipping Points and the Macro Risk-On, Risk-Off Drivers. - The "Peek Inside" shows the detailed coverage available this month.
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APRIL 2012: MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (Subscription Plan II)
The European Central Bank's (ECB) unprecedented use of a three year, low cost LTRO (Long Term Repurchase Agreement) policy initiative may have removed some of the short term pressures from the EU Banking crisis, but like the Greenspan PUT, the unintended consequences are not yet fully understood. One is the moral hazard which is fostering financial "games" to be played with reckless abandon. Some of the mischievous and cunning games are frankly questionably as being even legal! But then, nothing is illegal if the regulators and those organizations charged with surveillance are not bothering to investigate. Extend > Pretend > Bend is the new approach. MORE>>
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MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNO-FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS |
 MAY 2012: MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - (Subscription Plan IV)
The market action since March 2009 is a bear market counter rally that has completed a classic ending diagonal pattern. The Bear Market which started in 2000 will resume in full force when the current "ROUNDED TOP" is completed. We presently are in the midst of of a "ROLLING TOP" across all Global Markets. We are seeing broad based weakening analytics and cascading warning signals. This behavior is typically seen during major tops. This is all part of a final topping formation and a long term right shoulder technical construction pattern. - The "Peek Inside" shows the detailed coverage available this month.
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Latest Public Research ARTICLES & AUDIO PRESENTATIONS |
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Last update:
05/15/2012 3:08 AM |
Postings begin at 5:30am EST
and updated throughout the day |
External Articles: |
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"BEST OF THE WEEK " |
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TIPPING POINT or 2012 THESIS THEME |
HOTTEST TIPPING POINTS |
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Theme Groupings |
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GERMANY - Assesses Greek Exit Impact to Germany
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ECONOMIST 2 YEARS AGO |
WEEKEND DER SPIEGEL |
GERMANY HAS THROWN IN THE TOWEL ON GREECE & AUSTERITY
GERMANY WAVES THE WHITE FLAG ON INFLATION
GERMANY SEES THE COSTS
Germany Begins Quantifying The Cost Of A Greek Exit (And Discovers Contingent Liabilities Are All Too Real) 05/12/12 Zero Hedge

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05/14/12 |
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2- Sovereign Debt Crisis |
EUROSIS - Costs of Greek Exit
JPMorgan Estimates Immediate Losses From Greek Exit Could Reach 400 Billion 05/14/12 Zero Hedge
It is possible that necessary fiscal transfers are not politically feasible or that Germany is eventually far too different from the rest to coexist in a monetary union. In this case the horrific scenario of a break up becomes more likely. We would like to make two observations: 1) it is less painful and makes more economic sense for Germany rather than periphery to leave. See above discussion on consequences of a Greek exit for Greece, 2) the cost of a breakup is rising exponentially over time. Bundesbank TARGET2 balance reached a new high of €644bn in April.


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2- Sovereign Debt Crisis |
CHINA - Joins 'Reflation Race'
In Much-Anticipated Move, China Cuts Reserve Requirement Ratio, Joins Reflation Race 05/12/12 Zero Hedge

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05/14/12 |
Zero Hedge |
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4 - China Hard Landing |
FINANCIAL REPRESSION - Can You Believe this Headline?
House Votes to Cut Food Stamps to Avoid Defense Reduction 05/12/12 BL
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FINANCIAL REPRESSION |
FINANCIAL REPRESSION - MAcroPrudential Polices for Germany
Moody's Germany's Macroprudential Steps To Be Credit Positive for Bank Bondholders, Sovereign 05/13/12 wsj
The ratings firm said that although details still need to be finalized, macroprudential instruments may include:
- Anti-cyclical capital buffers,
- Systemic-risk buffers, and
- Increased risk weights for asset classes
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FINANCIAL REPRESSION |
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MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - May 13h -May 19th, 2012 |
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EU BANKING CRISIS |
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SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS [Euope Crisis Tracker] |
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RISK REVERSAL |
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CHINA BUBBLE |
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JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION |
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GEO-POLITICAL EVENT |
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BOND BUBBLE |
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MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week |
GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES |
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Market Analytics |
TECHNICALS & MARKET ANALYTICS |
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COMMODITY CORNER |
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THESIS Themes |
FINANCIAL REPRESSION |
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CORPORATOCRACY -CRONY CAPITALSIM |
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GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE |
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SOCIAL UNREST |
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STATISM |
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CURRENCY WARS |
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STANDARD OF LIVING |
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GENERAL INTEREST |
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TO TOP |
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