THESIS 2011: Beggar-Thy Neighbor -(OPEN ACCESS - 37 Pages of 217) >> GO

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MAY 2012: GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINT - (Subscription Plan III)

The Global Markets have reached the point of what can be best labeled as "Elevated Risk". Analytics measurements including Fundamenal Analysis, Techncial Analysis and Risk Anlysis all are independently signalling this along with warnings. This months report lays out the Risk Assessment, Risk Levels as determined by our proprietary aggregated Global Financial Risk Index, changes in Tipping Points and the Macro Risk-On, Risk-Off Drivers.  - The "Peek Inside" shows the detailed coverage available this month.

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APRIL 2012: MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (Subscription Plan II)

The European Central Bank's (ECB) unprecedented use of a three year, low cost LTRO (Long Term Repurchase Agreement) policy initiative may have removed some of the short term pressures from the EU Banking crisis, but like the Greenspan PUT, the unintended consequences are not yet fully understood. One is the moral hazard which is fostering financial "games" to be played with reckless abandon. Some of the mischievous and cunning games are frankly questionably as being even legal! But then, nothing is illegal if the regulators and those organizations charged with surveillance are not bothering to investigate. Extend > Pretend > Bend is the new approach. MORE>>

MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNO-FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

MAY 2012: MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - (Subscription Plan IV)

The market action since March 2009 is a bear market counter rally that has completed a classic ending diagonal pattern. The Bear Market which started in 2000 will resume in full force when the current "ROUNDED TOP" is completed. We presently are in the midst of of a "ROLLING TOP" across all Global Markets. We are seeing broad based weakening analytics and cascading warning signals. This behavior is typically seen during major tops.  This is all part of a final topping formation and a long term right shoulder technical construction pattern.  - The "Peek Inside" shows the detailed coverage available this month.

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	PART I - Understanding FINANCIAL REPRESSION
	PART II - FINANCIAL REPRESSION in Europe
	PART III - FINANCIAL REPRESSION in the US & ASIA
	PART IV - Preparations for FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Password: macro

GERMANY - Assesses Greek Exit Impact to Germany

ECONOMIST 2 YEARS AGO	WEEKEND DER SPIEGEL

GERMANY HAS THROWN IN THE TOWEL ON GREECE & AUSTERITY

• Crushing Defeat for Merkel's CDU Party in German Elections as Voters Reject Austerity; Crown Prince Turns Into Frog 05/13/12 Mish
• Merkel's CDU Trounced In Most Populous State Elections Over Austerity; Pirates Strong 05/13/12 Zero Hedge
• Another Huge Setback For Angela Merkel 05/13/12 BI
• German voters reject austerity in key poll 05/13/12 FT

GERMANY WAVES THE WHITE FLAG ON INFLATION

• Schäuble ready to tolerate German inflation 05/13/12 FT
• Germany Has Waved The White Flag And Will Allow Printing And Inflation 05/13/12 John Mauldin

GERMANY SEES THE COSTS

Germany Begins Quantifying The Cost Of A Greek Exit (And Discovers Contingent Liabilities Are All Too Real) 05/12/12 Zero Hedge

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EUROSIS - Costs of Greek Exit

JPMorgan Estimates Immediate Losses From Greek Exit Could Reach 400 Billion 05/14/12 Zero Hedge

It is possible that necessary fiscal transfers are not politically feasible or that Germany is eventually far too different from the rest to coexist in a monetary union. In this case the horrific scenario of a break up becomes more likely. We would like to make two observations: 1) it is less painful and makes more economic sense for Germany rather than periphery to leave. See above discussion on consequences of a Greek exit for Greece, 2) the cost of a breakup is rising exponentially over time. Bundesbank TARGET2 balance reached a new high of €644bn in April.

CHINA - Joins 'Reflation Race'

In Much-Anticipated Move, China Cuts Reserve Requirement Ratio, Joins Reflation Race 05/12/12 Zero Hedge

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FINANCIAL REPRESSION - Can You Believe this Headline?

House Votes to Cut Food Stamps to Avoid Defense Reduction 05/12/12 BL

FINANCIAL REPRESSION - MAcroPrudential Polices for Germany

Moody's Germany's Macroprudential Steps To Be Credit Positive for Bank Bondholders, Sovereign 05/13/12 wsj

The ratings firm said that although details still need to be finalized, macroprudential instruments may include:

1. Anti-cyclical capital buffers,
2. Systemic-risk buffers, and
3. Increased risk weights for asset classes