THESIS 2011: Beggar-Thy Neighbor -(OPEN ACCESS - 37 Pages of 217) >> GO

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JUNE 2012: GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINT - (Subscription Plan III)

The Global Markets have reached the point of what can be best labeled as "Elevated Risk". Analytics measurements including Fundamenal Analysis, Techncial Analysis and Risk Anlysis all are independently signalling this along with warnings. This months report lays out the Risk Assessment, Risk Levels as determined by our proprietary aggregated Global Financial Risk Index, changes in Tipping Points and the Macro Risk-On, Risk-Off Drivers.  - The "Peek Inside" shows the detailed coverage available this month.

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MAY 2012: MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (Subscription Plan II)

The European Central Bank's (ECB) unprecedented use of a three year, low cost LTRO (Long Term Repurchase Agreement) policy initiative may have removed some of the short term pressures from the EU Banking crisis, but like the Greenspan PUT, the unintended consequences are not yet fully understood. One is the moral hazard which is fostering financial "games" to be played with reckless abandon. Some of the mischievous and cunning games are frankly questionably as being even legal! But then, nothing is illegal if the regulators and those organizations charged with surveillance are not bothering to investigate. Extend > Pretend > Bend is the new approach. MORE>>

MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNO-FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

MAY 2012: MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - (Subscription Plan IV)

The market action since March 2009 is a bear market counter rally that has completed a classic ending diagonal pattern. The Bear Market which started in 2000 will resume in full force when the current "ROUNDED TOP" is completed. We presently are in the midst of of a "ROLLING TOP" across all Global Markets. We are seeing broad based weakening analytics and cascading warning signals. This behavior is typically seen during major tops.  This is all part of a final topping formation and a long term right shoulder technical construction pattern.  - The "Peek Inside" shows the detailed coverage available this month.

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APRIL 2012: TRIGGER$ (Subscription - Plan V)

TRIGGER$ publications combine both Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis together offering unique perspectives on the Global Markets. Every month “Gordon T Long Market Research & Analytics” publishes three reports totalling more then 380 pages of detailed Technical Analysis and in depth Fundamentals. If you find our publications TOO detailed, we recommend you consider TRIGGER$ which edited by GoldenPhi offers a ‘distilled’ version in a readable format for use in your daily due diligence. Read and understand what the professionals are reading without having to be a Professional Analyst or Technician.

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	PART I - Understanding FINANCIAL REPRESSION
	PART II - FINANCIAL REPRESSION in Europe
	PART III - FINANCIAL REPRESSION in the US & ASIA
	PART IV - Preparations for FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Password: macro

GLOBAL MONEY SUPPLY - Contracting Rapidly

Global slump alert as world money contracts 06/04/12 Ambrose- Evans-Pritchard

Growth of the world money supply has dropped to the lowest level since the financial crisis of 2008-2009, heralding a severe economic slowdown later this year unless authorites rapidly take action. The latest data show that the real M1 money supply – cash and overnight deposits – for China, the eurozone, Britain and the US has been contracting since the early Spring. Any further falls risk a full-blown global recession.

• Real M1 for the G7 economies and leading E7 emerging powers peaked at 5.1pc in November and has since plunged to 1.6pc in April. The data explain why commodity prices are falling hard, with Brent crude down to a 16-month low of under $97 a barrel.
• LAST BASTION OF STRENGTH - The New York Institute of Supply Management said its ISM business index – a proxy for business demand – flashed a "screeching halt" in May, crashing to 49.9 from 61.2 in April, where anything below 50 denotes contraction.
• Central bank governors and finance ministers from the G7 bloc are to hold an emergency teleconference call on Tuesday to grapple with Europe's escalating crisis
• China's money data are falling at the fastest pace since records began. The gauge – six-month real M1 – gives advance warning of economic output half a year ahead. "Europe needs to start quantitative easing [QE] immediately and China must ease policy,"

The Americans may act first. Goldman Sachs expects Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke to open the door for QE in testimony on Thursday.

US ENTITLEMENTS - Entitlements Go Negative

The Lie That Is Social Security 06/04/12 Lance Roberts

Real federal deficit dwarfs official tally - 05/24/12 USA Today

"By law, the federal government can't tell the truth," says accountant Sheila Weinberg of the Chicago-based Institute for Truth in Accounting

Retirement programs are not legal obligations. Retirement programs should not count as part of the deficit because, unlike a business, Congress can change what it owes by cutting benefits or lifting taxes.

• The typical American household would have paid nearly all of its income in taxes last year to balance the budget if the government used standard accounting rules to compute the deficit.
• Under those accounting practices, the government ran red ink last year equal to $42,054 per household — nearly four times the official number reported under unique rules set by Congress.
• A U.S. household's median income is $49,445, the Census reports.
• The big difference between the official deficit and standard accounting: Congress exempts itself from including the cost of promised retirement benefits. Yet companies, states and local governments must include retirement commitments in financial statements, as required by federal law and private boards that set accounting rules.
• The deficit was $5 trillion last year under those rules. The official number was $1.3 trillion.
• Liabilities for Social Security, Medicare and other retirement programs rose by $3.7 trillion in 2011, according to government actuaries, but the amount was not registered on the government's books.
• Contrasting deficits The federal government calculates the deficit in a way that makes the number smaller than if standard accounting rules were followed (in trillions).
• Social Security had the biggest financial slide.
• The government would need $22.2 trillion today, set aside and earning interest, to cover benefits promised to current workers and retirees beyond what taxes will cover. That's $9.5 trillion more than was needed in 2004.
• Deficits from 2004 to 2011 would be six times the official total of $5.6 trillion reported.
• Federal debt and retiree commitments equal $561,254 per household. By contrast, an average household owes a combined $116,057 for mortgages, car loans and other debts.

FOOD STAMPS - 46,405,204 Indivduals, 22,257,647 Households below Poverity Line

Record Number Of US Households On Foodstamps 06/04/12 Zero Hedge

Last month, when the USDA released the latest foodstamps numbers for the month of February, there was some hope that following a third month of declines, we may just have seen the peak of US foodstamp usage and going forward we would only see the number decline. Sadly, the latest numbers refutes this: in March a total of 46,405,204 persons were at or below poverty level and thus eligible for foodstamps, a 79K increase in the month. Yet while many individuals have learned to game the system, and this numbers at the peak may fluctuate, when it comes to the far more comprehensive and difficult to fudge "households on foodstamps" number, there was no confusion: at 22,257,647, the number of US households receiving the "SNAP treatment" rose to an all time high, even as the benefit per household dropped to the second lowest ever. At least all these impoverished believers in hope and change have FaceBook IPO profits to look forward to. Oh wait.

GETTING ELECTED - Priority #1 is to Stop Markets From Falling

Here's The Real Reason Obama's Re-Election Odds Are Plunging 06/04/12 BI

PRAQUE SPRING - The Real QE Leding Indicator

For the third year in a row, we’ve had another Prague Spring, a metaphor for better springtime data melting as summer begins.

IMBALANCES

GROWTH - Calculating a More Accurate GDP

Will the "Real" GDP Please Stand Up? (The Deflator Makes Big a Difference) 05/31/12 Doug Short

Freakish Surge In Social Security Payments Screams Recession 06/03/12 BI

Here's a chart we just made based on Friday's personal income & spending report.

What it shows is: The year-over-year change in Social Security Income as a share of total personal income. Not surprisingly, during recessions (which are shaded in grey), Social Security payments as a share of total income spike. It's very consistent. We're seeing another freak spike again. Uh-oh.

BEAR MARKETS - 2008 Comparisons to All Time Worst Bear Markets

A Return To The Four Totally Bad Bears 06/03/12 Doug Short

Here is a table showing the relative performance of these four cycles at the equivalent point in time.