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US TREASURIES: Not Even Close to A Safehaven
DYLAN GRICE: Buying Treasuries Is Like Dancing With The Devil 07-14-12 Societe General
Earlier this week I asked Societe Generale's Dylan Grice which chart he watches for part a larger feature Business Insider ran titled The Most Important Charts In The World.
Grice said he thinks treasuries are very risky at these yield levels because governments are manipulating their numbers:
"I guess the idea I’m getting at is that buying Treasuries is dancing with the devil. Aside from locking into a real negative return, you’re doing so from a position of weakness. You have no idea how negative the return is likely to be because you have no idea what inflation over the period (let’s say ten years) is likely to be.
What you do know is that the worse the fiscal position, the more likely the Fed are to print the money required, and so the more negative your real returns are going to be.
So what this chart illustrates is really what we all know (or all should know), which is that the official fiscal position of the US government understates the true position (and I don’t mean to pick on the U.S since they’re not the only one misrepresenting their fiscal position, the Europeans and Japanese are doing the same thing). One line shows an estimate which includes accruals in the deficit calculation, the other (official one) doesn’t."
Grice has previously warned that safe haven assets like government bonds are not actually that safe. For a more accurate picture he thinks measures of the federal deficit should include accruals since they indicate future liabilities. |
07-15-12 |
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6- Bond Bubble |
FINANCIAL REPRESSION: Forcing Investors Into Corporatocracy's "Dividend" Stocks
FIRST: INCENTIVE TOWARDS SAFETY & PERFORMANCE OF BOND YIELDS
SECOND: INCENTIVE TOWARDS HIGHER YIELDING STOCK DIVIDENDS
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FINANCIAL REPRESSION |
US RECESSION: Close But Not There Yet
Deutsche Bank's 'Rule Of 10%' Gives New Perspective On The High Jobless Claims Number 07-14-12 Duetsche Bank
According to most experts, the U.S. is still growing. However, some experts like Lakshman Achuthan and Albert Edwards argue that the U.S. is in a recession.
"Frequently, in the early stages of recessions or during growth soft-patches, there is not a clear consensus among forecasters as to whether or not a recession is actually occurring," writes Deutsche Bank economist Carl Riccadonna.
The issue is that economists opposite sides of the argument weight different metrics differently. But Riccadonna and the economics team at Deutsche Bank have an incredibly reliable indicator of recessions. They call it the "rule of 10%" and it's an interpretation of the U.S. weekly initial jobless claims. Riccadonna explains:
Our rule of thumb is as follows: In the past, when jobless claims backed up by 10% or more from the prior quarter’s average, in all but one instance (Q1 1967), the economy was on the brink of recession. Thus, the rule has proven to be fairly reliable over the past several decades.
Here's his chart showing the record of this indicator:
So based on the recent quarter's average jobless claims and the current trend of jobless claims, Riccadonna notes that that "rule of 10%" would suggest we are not heading into recession. In fact, the bar for jobless claims is actually quite high:
Therefore, given that Q1 initial jobless claims averaged 369k, the subsequent backup to 382k in Q2 was troubling—and likely reflective of slowing growth in sequential terms—but it was not the magnitude of move necessary to signal an imminent recession. To meet the aforementioned criterion, we would have needed to see claims exceed 400k. The threshold for the current quarter is higher still—roughly 420k, so we take comfort in the fact that jobless claims appear to be drifting back toward May levels (roughly 375k).
Then again, recent jobs data in general have been quite disappointing. In June, U.S. companies only added 80k jobs.And Riccadonna recognizes the U.S. economy isn't exactly in the clear.
"Of course, this also supports the notion that July payrolls should not deteriorate significantly from the pattern of the past few months, which is why we are preliminarily forecasting +75k," writes Riccadonna.
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07-15-12 |
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US ECONOMY |
FUNDAMENTALS: Backdrop to Q2 Earnings
GLOBAL EARNINGS
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07-15-12 |
STUDY FUNDAMENTALS |
ANALYTICS |
| MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - July 8th - July 14th, 2012 |
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EU BANKING CRISIS |
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| SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS [Euope Crisis Tracker] |
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| RISK REVERSAL |
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| CHINA BUBBLE |
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| JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION |
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| BOND BUBBLE |
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| CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT |
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| GEO-POLITICAL EVENT |
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| MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week |
GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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| CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES |
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| Market Analytics |
| TECHNICALS & MARKET ANALYTICS |
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| COMMODITY CORNER |
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| THESIS Themes |
FINANCIAL REPRESSION |
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| CORPORATOCRACY -CRONY CAPITALSIM |
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| GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE |
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SOCIAL UNREST |
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STATISM |
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CURRENCY WARS |
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STANDARD OF LIVING |
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| GENERAL INTEREST |
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| TO TOP |
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