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	PART I - Understanding FINANCIAL REPRESSION
	PART II - FINANCIAL REPRESSION in Europe
	PART III - FINANCIAL REPRESSION in the US & ASIA
	PART IV - Preparations for FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Password: macro

EARNINGS: Deteriorating US Revisions

Europe's Crisis Hits Profits Weaker Results at Ford, Apple, Glaxo Show Ripple Effect of Continent's Troubles 07-26-12 WSJ

The corporate alarm bells highlight how the miserable economic conditions in much of Europe are spilling onto the global stage. With much of Europe in recession and unemployment soaring, spending is sliding on everything from big-ticket items like cars to everyday staples like yogurt.

• 20% OF US EXPORTS: the 27 countries of the European Union are the largest economy of the world. Europe accounts for about one-fifth of all U.S. exports.
• 17% S&P 500 PROFIT & REVENUE: Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. equity strategist, David Bianco, estimates 17% of profit and revenue of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index companies comes from greater Europe.

About 60% of the 195 S&P 500 companies that have reported second-quarter results have missed REVENUE targets

• 3.9% REVENUE GROWTH: Revenue growth in the quarter inched up just 3.9%, and many companies have cited Europe as a factor
• 13.6% PROFIT GROWTH: Profit figures for the S&P 500 were stronger, up 13.6% over a year earlier as companies coped by cutting costs.
• 4X WARNINGS TO UPSIDE SURPRISES: But downside surprises are growing; the number of profit warnings is four times that of upside surprises, Thomson Reuters said.
• GERMAN BUSINESS CONFIDENCE-LOWEST IN 2 YEARS: The Ifo Institute survey of business sentiment released on Wednesday shows business confidence in Germany, Europe's largest economy, falling to its lowest level in over two years

"Everyone is afraid. Governments are afraid. Households are afraid. Companies are afraid."

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in congressional testimony Wednesday.

1. "The ongoing European crisis presents the biggest risk to our economy,"
2. "The economic recession in Europe is hurting economic growth around the world, and
3. The ongoing financial stress is causing a general tightening of financial conditions, exacerbating the global slowdown."

In January, for instance, analysts estimated that earnings of companies in the S&P 500 would rise 10% this year. Now, they project just 5% growth for the year,

EARNINGS: Deteriorating Global Revisions

Earnings Revisions Ratio Weakening Along with ISM Readings 07-23-12 AlphaNOW

Analysts anticipate sluggishLgrowth in lowering their forecasts for earnings growth rates lower.

In the heart of second-quarter earnings season, solid earnings reports have helped give a more positive tone to the stock market with about two-thirds of companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index reporting results that were better than expected.

What remains to be seen, however, is whether this trend can continue and – just as importantly – whether their outlook for future quarters is upbeat, or whether many companies will continue to “beat” earnings forecasts that analysts already have trimmed throughout the preceding weeks and months.

This week’s Chart of the Week illustrates graphically what is at stake, plotting the earnings revision ratio for the MSCI world index against the ISM manufacturing index.

As the rate of global growth has slumped again in recent months, so, too, has the earnings revision ratio, as analysts have become more anxious about the impact of that slowdown on the rate of growth in corporate earnings.

Even as companies reported stronger than expected earnings, however, they remain cautious when it comes to their outlook. Bank of America, for instance, is able to gauge the outlook for future growth not just on its own behalf, but through the eyes of its clients, a cross-section of corporate America.

“There remains some uncertainty (that) largely revolves around the situations in

1. Europe,
2. the United States,
3. around the longer-term fiscal issues that must be dealt with,”

... the bank’s CEO, Brian Moynihan, told investors on a post-earnings release conference call.

This means that once the earnings season and its flow of news comes to an end next month, investors’ eyes will once more be glued on to the economy, in search of more insight into what lies behind corporate earnings power and that revisions ratio.

EARNINGS: PE Ratos Falsely Expanding Based on Central Bank Expectations

In Case Of Collapsing Earnings, Expand Multiples And Pray 07-26-12 Goldman Sachs via Zero Hedge

Both earnings and revenues for 2012 have been cut dramatically in the last three months, rejuvenating a sliding consensus trend for 2012 that began in the middle of last year. However, as we are told again and again, the economy must be doing fine because the market is up so much in that period. In fact, what is even more fun to hear is that the market is cheap (never mind the incredulous hockey-stick expectations for Q4 this year). In fact, the market is not cheap at all. The correlation between the S&P 500 in the last two years and the P/E multiple shows that performance has been driven almost entirely by multiple-expansion alone. Forward P/E is now getting close to recent peaks suggesting the market is far from cheap and on a longer-term view (based on both an as-reported and operating basis), the S&P 500 appears expensive - and perhaps these charts will re-anchor whatever cognitive bias that seems to pervade the long-only manager's herding mentality.

Equities have ripped and dipped all on the basis of multiple expansion and compression...

and recently even more so - as EPS and Sales have been cut significantly...

Third-quarter earnings of Standard & Poor's 500 companies are now expected to fall 0.1 percent from a year ago, a sharp revision from the July 1 forecast of 3.1 percent growth, Thomson Reuters data showed on Thursday.

That would be the first decline in earnings since the third quarter of 2009, the data showed.

which extends a longer-term reversion to reality trend...

which leaves Cyclically Adjusted S&P 500 P/E Ratios notably expensive to longer-term averages...

so the bottom line is that the S&P 500 is what it is - a nominally priced index of the state of the USA - and its valuation is driven by a multiple expansion that is justified by those that need to on the basis of hope - as opposed to the reality of declining earnings fundamentals...

EARNINGS: Q3 Estimates Plummet tol -0.1% versus +3.1% on July 1st

Sharp Decline in Earnings and Revenue Estimates; Chart Explains Four Major Waves of Earnings Growth 07-27-12 Mish

Corporate Profits

Corporate After-Tax Profits As Percent of Real GDP

Four Major Waves of Earnings Growth

1. A stunning rise in corporate profits as a percent of GDP started when Nixon closed the gold window, effective ending the last semblance of the gold standard. In response, the trade deficit soared as did an exodus of manufacturing jobs.
2. A second massive rise in corporate profits began with the Greenspan Fed-sponsored internet bubble culminating in 2000 with a liquidity push out of misguided fears of a Y2K crash.
3. The third big jump in corporate earnings started in 2001 when the Greenspan Fed (followed by the Bernanke Fed), ignited housing and debt bubbles of epic magnitude. Financial profits soared at the expense of the greater fool going deep in debt buying houses right before the housing bust.
4. In 2009, the Bernanke Fed slashed interest rates across the board, clobbering those on fixed income, to bail out banks. A side-effect was lower interest rates on corporate bonds which also added to corporate profits.

For the first time in three years, US Quarterly Earnings are Poised to Drop.

Third-quarter earnings of Standard & Poor's 500 companies are now expected to fall 0.1 percent from a year ago, a sharp revision from the July 1 forecast of 3.1 percent growth, Thomson Reuters data showed on Thursday.

That would be the first decline in earnings since the third quarter of 2009, the data showed.

Earnings in the tech sector are now expected to rise only 5.8 percent — less than half the forecast of 13.1 percent growth, according to an estimate at the start of the month, Thomson Reuters data showed.

The materials sector is forecast to see an earnings drop of 11.4 percent for the third quarter, worse than the forecast of a 3.3 percent decline at the start of July, Thomson Reuters data showed. Slumping commodity prices and reduced demand from China have hurt that sector.

Sales Look Worse Than Earnings

While earnings performance has held up so far for the second quarter — with results in from about half of the S&P 500 companies — revenue has looked much gloomier.

Just 41 percent of companies have beaten revenue estimates, the lowest since the first quarter of 2009 and only the fourth time in the past 10 years that the beat rate was under 50 percent.

Revenue growth is expected to have increased just 1.2 percent for the second quarter, Thomson Reuters data showed.

• Corporations give analysts "tips" regarding profit expectations.
• Those profit expectations are purposely low.
• Wall Street analysts lower estimates, if necessary, as the quarter progresses such that corporations can "beat the street".
• If corporations are going to miss and need an extra penny, they change tax assumption or make other "one time" adjustments as necessary.
• Corporations beat the street by a penny with "pro-forma" (after adjustment) reporting.

Percentage of Companies that "Beat the Street"

The last time companies failed to "beat the street" was third quarter of 1998. At the earnings trough in third quarter of 2008, 58% of companies in the S&P 500 still managed to "beat the street".

The above chart from Understandings Earnings Estimates by James Bianco on the Big Picture Blog.

US GROWTH: More Confirmations of Slowing Growth

The US Garbage Indicator Is Sending An Ominous Sign For The Economy 07-26-12 BI

Among the 21 categories of items shipped by rail, none have a tighter correlation to GDP than waste. According to a 2010 piece on Bloomberg, economists Michael McDonough and Carl Riccadonna note that waste has an 82 percent correlation to US economic growth. This should be pretty intuitive. The more you produce, the more you throw out.

McDonough, a Bloomberg BRIEF economist, tweeted out an update on the indicator. And frankly, it stinks. Waste carloads are way down.

QEIII: What is the Fed's Trigger?

Did The Market Remove Its Own QE Punchbowl? 07-29-12 Zero Hedge

As we discussed here two weeks ago, his actions in extreme monetary policy have all occurred at periods when the market's expectations of future rapid de- or dis-inflation have increased rapidly. As we noted then: without inflation break-evens dropping, the Bernanke put will not arrive; but the market in its infinitely efficient wisdom has created a self-defeating spiral of BTFD reflexive front-running on any rapid spike down in future inflation expectations - which implicitly sparks a non-dis-inflationary reaction and removes Bernanke's punchbowl for another day. This has occurred 4 times this year - with this week's early plunge being caught by Draghi and Hilsenrath - and with inflation break-evens almost at their highest in 10 months, it would appear the 'desperate-not-to-miss-the-life-giving-rally' market just removed its own blood supply.

MOUNTING QE III PRESSURES: Perceptions Forcing Fed to Take Action - (Jon Hilsenrath Speaks)

Fed Moves Closer to Action: Central Bank Prepares Steps to Spur the Economy Unless the Recovery Picks Up 07-25-12 WSJ JON HILSENRATH

Federal Reserve officials, impatient with the economy's sluggish growth and high unemployment, are moving closer to taking new steps to spur activity and hiring. Since their June policy meeting, officials have made clear—in interviews, speeches and testimony to Congress—that they find the current state of the economy unacceptable. Many officials appear increasingly inclined to move unless they see evidence soon that activity is picking up on its own.

Fed officials could take some actions in combination or one after another.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, in testimony to Congress last week, listed several options under consideration, including

1. a new program of buying mortgage-backed or Treasury securities,
2. new commitments to keep short-term interest rates near zero beyond 2014 or
3. an effort to push already-low benchmark short-term interest rates even lower.

One idea mentioned by Mr. Bernanke in his testimony would be to use a facility the Fed calls its discount window to provide cheap credit directly to banks that make new business or consumer loans. But it isn't clear such a program would do much good when banks already have ample access to cheap credit and this kind of program doesn't appear to be winning favor at the moment.

There are several reasons why Fed officials might wait for their September meeting to decide whether to proceed. By then they will have seen two more monthly unemployment reports and two more months of data on output, spending and investment. Fed officials update their economic projections at the September meeting and Mr. Bernanke holds his quarterly news conference after, which would give him an opportunity to publicly explain the Fed's thinking. Moreover, some officials believe the Fed's June decision to continue a program known as "Operation Twist" through year-end could help the economy and want to give it time to work.

• Cashin Notes Hilsenrath Is To The Fed As Greg Ip Is To The ECB 07-27-12 Zero Hedge
• Stephen Roach Smokes Crack-Addicted Market "QE3 Is Not Going To Work" 07-25-12 Zero Hedge Jon Hilzenrath is actually the chairman of the Fed. When he writes something in the Wall Street Journal, Bernanke has no choice but to deliver on what he wrote.”

MOUNITNG QE III PRESSURES: Perceptions Forcing Fed to Take Action

FOMC Preview: Christening QE III 07-27-12 Nothern Trust

The Federal Open Market Committee will be meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday to decide on the future course of monetary policy. Here is a matrix that looks at the pros and cons of the most likely outcomes, along the subject lines that the Committee will likely discuss.

All things considered, we think that the FOMC will opt for a modest extension of its quantitative easing program, initiating what some have called QE III. As we discussed earlier this week, we don’t think that the Fed will lower the interest rate it pays on excess reserves (IOER).

Here are the key factors we think will carry the day.

• The Fed's dual mandate calls for them to work towards maximum sustainable employment. We seem to be moving in the opposite direction of that aim. Inflation seems to be well-contained, allowing room to address the jobless issue.
• The paralysis in Congress, likely to last for the balance of this election year, does place additional pressure on the Fed to be accommodative. It might be tempting for the FOMC to throw up its collective hands in frustration, but quantitative easing has proceeded for three years now in the face of fiscal gridlock.
• Even if recent statements from Europe are followed by real action, it will take some time for European economies and banks to recover from what they have been through. The global picture will therefore remain a headwind for U.S. growth.

There will no doubt be dissent on this decision from some corners of the table. But there should be a core of support that can carry the day.

This will be a close call, so the risk of being incorrect is certainly high. I’m therefore tempted to research this even more deeply, but my family has their faces pressed angrily against the library window. Time to shut down and enjoy the scenery.

MONETARY MALPRACTICE: GLobal Wildcat Finance

Monetary Madness 07-27-12 Doug Nolan

M2

• In commemoration of M2 surpassing $10.0 TN for the first time – not to mention the unfolding confrontation between ECB President Draghi and Germany’s Bundesbank - this week’s CBB will focus on Monetary Analysis.
• It is worth noting that M2, the Fed’s narrow measure of “money” supply, surpassed $1 TN for the first time in 1975. It made it past $2 TN in 1983, $4TN in 1997, $8 TN in 2008 and $9 TN in April 2011. M2 has inflated another Trillion during the past 15 months.

MONEY

• To set the backdrop, it is worth noting that early economic thinkers were obsessed with money.
• These days, monetary analysis is little more than a footnote in contemporary economic doctrine.
• Generations ago, great minds were trying to come to grips with monetary phenomena. They came to appreciate that money and Credit had profound impacts on economies and societies, although throughout history even the most astute struggled with the complexity of it all.
• These days, “monetary stimulus” is seen as good for the markets and, yes, good again for GDP. Inflation, if it ever were to return, is not so good.
• Today’s monetary analysis is not good but it is shallow.
• Thinkers of things economic long ago appreciated that the functioning of economies was literally transformed by the introduction of money.
• An economy dominated by barter operated altogether differently after units of exchange entered the fray.
• They further understood that the introduction of bank lending – where new purchasing power and bank liabilities were created by the act of borrowing – added great complexities to how economies functioned.
• Finance mattered and it mattered a lot. Keen attention was paid to the role Credit played in economic cycles.
• For centuries, the seemingly straightforward issues of money and Credit were recognized as extraordinarily, incredibly complex.
• Analyses that various monetary fiascos and inevitable collapses came to similar conclusions: sound money and Credit were paramount.

Credit and speculative excesses were recognized as primary culprits to financial collapse and the Great Depression.

• Regrettably, incredibly important lessons learned through devastation and hardship were relegated to the dustbin of history.

WILDCAT BANKING

• Early analysis of “wildcat banking” was quite insightful. Especially as banks proliferated along with the development of the Wild West, individual banks’ bills of exchange and promissory notes garnered considerable attention. These types of bank liabilities differed greatly, based on their backing and the perceived soundness of individual institutions – depending as well on the phase of the Credit cycle. In the end, there were too many bank failures, too much worthless wildcat currency and too little confidence in these Credit instruments and institutions.
• Importantly, however, wildcat fiat “money” was initially a crucial facet of impressive wealth creation. Many a prospector borrowed from a local bank to clear land, buy seeds and invest in animals and tools. Many businesses flourished.
• Early economic thinkers, however, also recognized that unsound money would inevitably prove destabilizing and detrimental.

Monetary inflations could not be controlled. Lending volumes – along with outstanding fiat currency - would inevitably grow larger and larger, financing speculative activities and uneconomic ventures – fueling inflation and sowing the seeds of boom and bust dynamics.

• This is a common theme throughout monetary history, although monetary analysis is always burdened by the fact that every cycle has its own financial and economic nuances. The nature of the analysis is prone to historical revisionism.

GLOBAL WILDCAT FINANCE

• But I’ll conclude the shallowest analysis of monetary history - and jump right to the present. I’ve for years posited that we live in an extraordinary period of “global wildcat finance.”
• Fiat electronic Credit – much of it marketable debt instruments – has expanded unlike anything previously experienced.
• In the “developed” West, inflated real and financial assets were a primary inflationary consequence.
• In China and “developing Asia,” an unprecedented expansion of manufacturing capacity was integral to the incredible inflation of incomes and wealth.
• As for fundamental “nuances” of this monetary and economic Bubble, one can point to so-called “globalization,” the explosion of computer and communications technologies, enterprising financial innovation, deregulated Credit and speculation, and monetary policy activism.

DECOUPLED MONETARY INFLATION

• Myriad forces worked to break the traditional link between monetary excess and rapidly rising consumer prices.
• The “developing” world, enjoying access to unlimited cheap finance, built manufacturing capacity to inundate the world with manufactured goods and technology products.
• Global financial excesses allowed developed nations to indulge in cheap imports by issuing endless IOUs, while transforming economic systems from production-based to Credit-driven consumption and services.
• And the seeming New Paradigm victory over “inflation” emboldened New Age central bankers. They unwittingly nurtured an epic monetary inflation, and as this Credit Bubble has begun to buckle they have moved with extraordinary force to sustain it. Especially after the 2008 crisis response, global policymakers lost control.

EU CRISIS

• The eurozone is today locked in a disastrous monetary crisis. The marketplace simply no longer trusts the liabilities issued by some its members. Analysts continue to lambast European officials for failing to learn from our successful navigation through the 2008 crisis. This is flawed analysis.
• Europe is suffering from a late-cycle sovereign debt crisis.
• In ‘08/’09, U.S. policymakers enjoyed unprecedented demand for Treasury (and even agency) debt securities. Through the massive issuance of federal government debt along with Federal Reserve monetization, the U.S. system was able to sustain ongoing Credit growth.
• U.S. non-financial debt expanded $1.9 TN in 2008 and, despite huge mortgage write-downs, U.S. non-financial Credit still grew almost $1.1 TN in 2009. With federal debt expanding a then record $1.4 TN, total non-financial debt expanded 3.1% in 2009.

Washington was willing to jeopardize the creditworthiness of federal debt and the Fed was willing to risk its reputation - and a downward spiral was thwarted.

• A new phase of monetary inflation was commenced, this time through the massive injection of federal government and Federal Reserve finance.
• There are unappreciated costs associated with injecting such massive sums of unproductive Credit into a (maladjusted) system, which I return to below.
• Today, because they now lack creditworthiness in the marketplace, Spain and Italy no longer have the capacity to inject sufficient new Credit into their economic systems.
• This is a potentially devastating dynamic, as the lack of sufficient ongoing monetary inflation is illuminating deep structural economic impairment following years of Credit excess and attendant maladjustment.
• Earlier this week, with Spanish and Italian yields spiking higher and their markets turning illiquid, the European debt crisis was again spiraling out of control – only months after the ECB implemented its latest $1.3 TN liquidity facilities. And, once again, acute financial stress has provoked tough talk.
• ECB president Draghi Thursday morning stated, “…the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro… Believe me, it will be enough.” German Finance Minister Schaeuble said he supported Draghi’s statement, while Chancellor Merkel and President Hollande came forward Friday with their own “bound by the deepest duty” to do everything to protect the euro.
• And then there was this afternoon’s unconfirmed report that Mr. Draghi is prepared to present a “game changing” multi-prong plan at next week’s European Central Bank governing council meeting that will include
  • ECB bond purchases and
  • A banking license for the ESM.

BUNDESBANK v ECB

Shifting 180 degrees from earlier in the week, rather than fearing Credit collapse the markets moved quickly in anticipation of yet another crisis-induced bout of monetary inflation. And, seemingly, only the Bundesbank remains capable of taking a measured approach. Friday morning (before afternoon reports of a Draghi’s “game changer”), from a Bundesbank spokesperson: “There haven’t been any changes in our positions on bond purchases of the Eurosystem, bond purchases by the EFSF, or giving a banking licence to the ESM… The Bundesbank has repeatedly expressed in the past that it views bond purchases critically because they blur the line between monetary and fiscal policy… The Bundesbank continues to view the SMP [securities market program] in a critical fashion. The mechanism of bond purchases is problematic because it sets the wrong incentives…

A banking license for the bailout fund would factually mean state financing via the printing press and would be a fatal route, which therefore is prohibited by the EU treaty.”

No doubt about it, the Bundesbank is increasingly isolated. They are at odds with most European politicians and they are at odds with other central bankers. They are clearly not on the same page with Mr. Draghi. And no group of government officials anywhere more clearly appreciates myriad risks associated with monetary inflations. The German/“Austrian” view of economics just has a very different perspective, and it goes way beyond some fixation on Weimar hyperinflation.

The focus is on how real wealth is created and how wealth is destroyed.

Monetary Inflations are powerfully destructive.

And as a deepening European crisis applies incredible pressure on politicians throughout the region – certainly including Germany's Merkel and Schaeuble – I suspect the Bundesbank will hold its ground. They are both right on the analysis and have the support of the German people. They understand that the German economy cannot support the massive debt of the entire eurozone.

Italian 2-year yields jumped from 3.80% on Monday morning to 5.18% by Wednesday morning. By Friday afternoon they had sunk back down to 3.6%. Spanish stocks dropped 5.8% last Friday, declined 1.1% Monday and another 3.6% on Tuesday. They gained 0.8% Wednesday, before jumping 6.1% Thursday and 3.9% Friday. Italian stocks dropped about 10% in three sessions, before rallying 10% in the next three sessions. U.S. stocks dropped 3% in three sessions and then gained 3.5% in two. German 10-year yields ended the week up 23 bps. Throughout already volatile global debt, equities, currencies and commodities markets, things have turned only more unstable.

INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE & PERILOUSLY DYSFUNCTIONAL

• And there is no doubt in my mind that ongoing monetary injections – albeit European, American, Chinese, or others – come with the cost of increasingly unstable – I would argue perilously dysfunctional - global financial markets.
• And there should be little doubt where Mr. Draghi was directing his “trust me, it will be enough” tough talk (kind of reminded me of, “go ahead, make my day”).
• The Europeans believe hedge fund and other speculator bets against their bonds, stocks and euro currency are a major contributing factor to the region’s woes.
• There wasn’t an issue back when speculators were leveraged long Europe’s (Greece’s, Spain’s, Italy’s, etc.) securities during the upside of the cycle.

RISK-ON, RISK-OFF DYNAMIC

This week demonstrated an even more powerful “risk on, risk off” dynamic. For lack of attractive alternatives, ongoing global monetary injections ensure only more “money” flows to the global leveraged speculating community. From there, the bets on red or black - either on or against policymakers’ capacity to sustain global risk market Bubbles - become bigger by the week. Draghi and European policymakers this week hit the panic button – and those with bearish hedges and bets were again forced to run for cover. Risk on wins again.

And as policymaking turns increasingly desperate, it is almost guaranteed that “risk on, risk off” turns only more unwieldy. Indeed, it is clear at this point that the more global policymakers turn to monetary inflation to thwart the downside of the Credit cycle the greater the amount of fuel injected into a dangerous global speculative Bubble. In anticipation of next week’s scheduled Federal Reserve and ECB meetings, CNBC’s Steve Liesman today referred to “Monetary Madness.” I’ll use the term to describe the past couple decades.

CANARIES: Mounting Pressures on Central Banks to Take Action

The Stock Market Desperately Needs The Economy To Perk Up 07-24-12

Last week, Lance Roberts pointed us to a stock market chart that showed if 2012 were to repeat 2011, than stocks should collapse within days.

LPL Financial's Jeff Kleintop points at the pattern again in his weekly market commentary. But he goes one step further to show the divergence between stocks and the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, which measures whether economic data comes in better or worse than estimates.

Lately, disappointing economic data has caused the CESI to fall, while stocks have been relatively resilient.

Here's Kleintop's comments:

For the gap between market and economic performance depicted in Figure 1 to close, either upcoming economic data must surprise to the upside or stocks need to drop sharply. It is notable that a gap similar to the current one appeared in July of 2011. Ominously, that gap closed with a sharp drop in the S&P 500, as you can see in Figure 2.

In other words, if the relationship between stocks and the CESI holds, than stock investors are going to want economic data to start surprising to the upside again soon