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STALL SPEED : Any Geo-Political, Economic or Financial Event Could Trigger a Market Clearing Fall
 As we reported last month, Global Economic Risks have taken a noticeable and abrupt turn downward over the last 60 days. Deterioration in Credit Default Swaps, Money Supply and many of our Macro Analytics metrics suggested the global economic condition is at a Tipping Point. Though we stated "Urgent and significant actions must be taken by global leaders and central banks to reduce growing credit stresses" nothing has occurred even after the 19th disappointing EU Summit to address the EU Crisis. Some event is soon going to push the global economy over the present Tipping Point unless major globally coordianted policy initiatives are undertaken. The IMF recently warned and reduced Global growth to 3.5%. This is just marginally above the 3% threshold that marks a Global recession. This would be the first global recession ever recorded. The World Bank is "unpolitically'projecting 2.5%. The situation is now deteriorating so rapidly, as to be impossible to hide anylonger.
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 AUGUST 2012: MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (Subscription Plan II)
 MONETARY MALPRACTICE : Moral Hazard, Unintended Consequences & Dysfunctional Markets - Monetary Malpractice has had the desired result of driving Investors into becoming Speculators and are now nothing more than low-odds Gamblers. There is a difference between investing, speculating and gambling. At one time these lines were easy to comprehend and these distinctive groups separated into camps with different risk profiles in which to seek their fortunes. Today investing has become at best nothing more than speculating and realistically closer to outright gambling.
The reason is that vital information is either opaque, hidden or manipulated. Blatant examples such as: the world of off balance sheet debt, Contingent Liabilities, Derivative SWAPS, Special Purpose Vehicles (SPV), Special Purpose Entities (SPE), Structured Investment Vehicles (SIV) and obscene levels of hidden leverage make a mockery out of public Financial Statements. Surely if we get our ego out of this for a moment we can see that stockholders are now nothing more than gamblers? What is worse is that the casino is rigged. With Monetary Policy now targeting negative real interest rates, it is forcing the public out of interest bearing savings and investing, and into higher risk vehicles they would have shunned historically. They have no choice as the Monetary Malpractice game is played against them.
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LABOR - Shifting Profile
The US Job Market Is Just Awful For College Graduates 08-25-12 John Mauldin
There are some new patterns in the employment trends that suggest we may be going through a generational transformation, led by both demographics and technology. And while it is ultimately positive, the transition will be harder on some groups than others.
NEED AN ADVANCED DEGREE
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08-27-12 |
CATALYST JOBS |
7
7 - Chronic Unemployment |
BERNANKE PUT - Jackson Hole & The Fiscal Cliff
Ben Bernanke Will Channel Evel Knievel As He Jumps This Fiscal Cliff 08-24-12 Yardeni via BI
FISCAL CLIFF
Since bond yields are already at record lows, could it be that Fed officials have concluded that the only transmission mechanism they have left between monetary policy and the economy is the stock market? Recall that the Fed Chairman mentioned stock prices twice in his 11/4/10 Washington Post op-ed explaining why the Fed implemented QE2 the day before: “Stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell when investors began to anticipate the most recent action. … And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending.”
If nothing is done by Congress to avert the fiscal cliff at the start of next year, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a recession during the first half of next year, with the unemployment rate remaining above 8% through 2014: “The increases in federal taxes and reductions in federal spending, totaling almost $500 billion, that are projected to occur in fiscal year 2013 represent an amount of deficit reduction over the course of a single year that has not occurred (as a share of GDP) since 1969. ... Real GDP is projected to fall at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the first half of next year and then to rise at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the second half.”
“The magnitude of the slowdown we’re discussing next year is significant,” CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf said at a morning briefing yesterday. He warned that going over the cliff could cost the nation about 2 million jobs.
JACKSON HOLE
"The latest FOMC minutes noted: “Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery.” There was no similar comment about taking action "fairly soon" in the minutes of the previous meeting during June 19-20."
I think there’s a chance that he might announce during his August 31 speech at Jackson Hole that the Fed will launch an open-ended QE3 program with the hope of turbocharging the economy so that it can leap over the cliff. San Francisco Fed President John Williams, a voting member of the FOMC, was the first to advocate this stunt in an interview reported in the 7/23 FT.
He floated the idea again in an interview reported in the 8/10 issue of the San Francisco Chronicle. When he was asked whether QE3 should be saved to cushion the fall off the cliff early next year, if necessary, he responded: "We want to position the economy to be strong in advance of that. If you are really worried about running out of ammunition, you want to act more aggressively, more quickly and better prepare yourself for that eventuality."
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who is a non-voting member of the FOMC, seconded Williams’ motion for open-ended QE3 in an interview reported in the 8/7 WSJ. According to the minutes of the July 31-August 1 FOMC meeting, released yesterday, "Many participants expected that such a [QE] program could provide additional support for the economic recovery both by putting downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and by contributing to easier financial conditions more broadly."
WILL IT WORK?
Michael Oliver, a seasoned stock market technician and a good friend, asks an interesting question about Bernanke’s highly anticipated stunt: “Prior [Fed] interventions came at market lows when the technicals were oversold, hence ripe for some upside relief. So, with that ‘difference’ this time around, with the market if anything technically stretched and measurably overbought on the upside, will a new QE work or blow up in their face?”
Great question. All the more reason to save the big QE3 stunt for early next year, if necessary, in my opinion. For now, why not just extend NZIRP until the unemployment rate drops below 7%? The FOMC discussed such a policy option at its last meeting:
“Given the uncertainty attending the economic outlook, a few participants questioned whether the conditionality of the forward guidance was sufficiently clear, and they suggested that the Committee should consider replacing the calendar date with guidance that was linked more directly to the economic factors that the Committee would consider in deciding to raise its target for the federal funds rate, or omit the forward guidance language entirely.”
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08-27-12 |
MONETARY |
CENTRAL BANK |
BERNANKE PUT - Proof
Are Bernanke's Fingerprints All Over Equity Indices? 08-25-12 UBS via Zero Hedge
The link between nominal interest rates, inflation breakevens, and stocks has changed; especially with regard the last few years' seemingly increased dependence on the Central Bank to keep an anti-deflationary floor on breakevens (or conversely the Bernanke Put under stocks). UBS' macro team, while humbly professing not to be experts in corporate earnings (which have been dismal) or balance sheet ratios (which are positive but have deteriorated in recent months) believe in a big picture macro perspective that we have been vociferously commenting on for a year or two now.
SPX (green) vs 10Y Treasury rates (red) and 10Y TIPS Breakevens (blue-dots)
As official policy rates are frozen near zero and the Fed is likely to keep them there for at least two more years, one would need to look for different indicators quantifying market expectation of a future success or failure of the Fed’s stimulative effort. Breakeven inflation is a good candidate. The logic is pretty straightforward: we have been living in the low inflation environment for the past several years, and the Fed is quite intent on preventing deflation, so “successful” monetary policy should boost future inflation. The TIPS market reflects changing inflation expectations by repricing breakevens. Breakevens have reacted to the introduction of traditional and non-traditional policy measures, from new bond purchase announcements to extending the language regarding super low policy rates.
Specifically, they have noticed a potentially curious link between the way the market interpreted monetary policy signals and the large cap stocks in the US: the breakeven inflation rate on 10yr TIPS has tracked the S&P 500 very closely this year.
When the Fed is perceived to be successful in stimulating the economy, stocks benefit and breakevens also rise.
When the Fed’s potency is called into question, stocks fade and breakevens decline.
We have checked historical data to see if a similar pattern existed for the relationship between SPX and the nominal 10y Treasury yield in 2012. We found that relationship to be very statistically weak. We can point out to a pair of dates in 2012 when the 10y benchmark yield was essentially the same (1.83% vs.1.88%) while the S&P500 was 158 points higher on one date than the other.
Nominal Treasury rates have lost their 'signal' as UBS agrees with the point we have been making for a long time: central bankers and politicians, not economic fundamentals and inflation expectations, currently drive the nominal rate and equity markets. |
08-27-12 |
PATTERNS |
ANALYTICS |
| MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - August 16th - Sept. 1st, 2012 |
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EU BANKING CRISIS |
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| SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS [Euope Crisis Tracker] |
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| RISK REVERSAL |
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| CHINA BUBBLE |
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| JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION |
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| BOND BUBBLE |
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| CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT |
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| GEO-POLITICAL EVENT |
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| TO TOP |
| MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week |
GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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| CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES |
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| Market Analytics |
| TECHNICALS & MARKET ANALYTICS |
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| COMMODITY CORNER - HARD ASSETS |
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| THESIS Themes |
FINANCIAL REPRESSION |
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| CORPORATOCRACY -CRONY CAPITALSIM |
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| GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE |
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SOCIAL UNREST |
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CENTRAL PLANNING |
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STATISM |
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CURRENCY WARS |
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STANDARD OF LIVING |
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| GENERAL INTEREST |
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| TO TOP |
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