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 SEPTEMBER 2012: GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINT - (Subscription Plan III)
STALL SPEED : Any Geo-Political, Economic or Financial Event Could Trigger a Market Clearing Fall
As we reported last month, Global Economic Risks have taken a noticeable and abrupt turn downward over the last 60 days. Deterioration in Credit Default Swaps, Money Supply and many of our Macro Analytics metrics suggested the global economic condition is at a Tipping Point. Though we stated "Urgent and significant actions must be taken by global leaders and central banks to reduce growing credit stresses" nothing has occurred even after the 19th disappointing EU Summit to address the EU Crisis. Some event is soon going to push the global economy over the present Tipping Point unless major globally coordianted policy initiatives are undertaken. The IMF recently warned and reduced Global growth to 3.5%. This is just marginally above the 3% threshold that marks a Global recession. This would be the first global recession ever recorded. The World Bank is "unpolitically'projecting 2.5%. The situation is now deteriorating so rapidly, as to be impossible to hide anylonger.
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 SEPTEMBER 2012: MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (Subscription Plan II)
MONETARY MALPRACTICE : Moral Hazard, Unintended Consequences & Dysfunctional Markets - Monetary Malpractice has had the desired result of driving Investors into becoming Speculators and are now nothing more than low-odds Gamblers. There is a difference between investing, speculating and gambling. At one time these lines were easy to comprehend and these distinctive groups separated into camps with different risk profiles in which to seek their fortunes. Today investing has become at best nothing more than speculating and realistically closer to outright gambling.
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 SEPTEMBER 2012: MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - (Subscription Plan IV)
The market action since March 2009 is a bear market counter rally that has completed a classic ending diagonal pattern. The Bear Market which started in 2000 will resume in full force when the current "ROUNDED TOP" is completed. We presently are in the midst of of a "ROLLING TOP" across all Global Markets. We are seeing broad based weakening analytics and cascading warning signals. This behavior is typically seen during major tops. This is all part of a final topping formation and a long term right shoulder technical construction pattern. - The "Peek Inside" shows the detailed coverage available this month.
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Latest Public Research ARTICLES & AUDIO PRESENTATIONS |
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Last update:
10/16/2012 4:40 AM |
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TIPPING POINT or 2012 THESIS THEME |
HOTTEST TIPPING POINTS |
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PATTERNS - Consolidation or Topping Pattern?
Forget 666; 808 Is The Number Of This Market's Beast 10-13-12 ZH
Presented with little comment, except to say - it seems, as Boaz at EminiAddict points out, that the S&P 500 likes to travel around 808 points from swing low to swing high. Extending the analog suggests a drop to 565 on the S&P 500 by mid-2014.
and using EminiAddict's channel projection... suggests a 565 swing low to come...
Click to read annotations |
10-15-12 |
PATTERNS |
ANALYTICS |
ANALYTICS - Topping Signals Starting to Show
Percent Buy Index (PBI) Gives Sell Signal 10-12-12 Decision Point - Carl Swenlin
This week our Percent Buy Index (PBI) for the S&P 500 dropped below its 32-EMA and generated a sell signal. The PBI tracks the percentage of stocks in a given index that are on intermediate-term buy signals, and it is one of many indicators that we follow. The PBI does not currently affect our primary timing model (which is still on a buy signal), but it does offer an early warning of possible problems ahead.
The chart below shows the SPX PBI over a three-year period. Obviously, its crossover signals are not infallible, but downside crossovers at overbought levels are generally bad news. Additionally, notice the negative divergence -- lower PBI tops against higher price tops.
For the Nasdaq 100 Index, the PBI sell signal was generated over two weeks ago, and the negative divergence is much more severe. This reflects that the smaller-cap stocks in the index are fading and that larger-cap stocks are holding the index aloft. This is not a good thing, but it can persist longer than we might think.

It is possible that prices will behave indecisively (move sideways) until after the election, but the PBIs are giving signs that, no matter who wins, the market is likely to head lower. |
10-15-12 |
PATTERNS |
ANALYTICS |
ANALYTICS - Major Contrarian Warning Signal
UH-OH: Check Out The Cover Of The New Barron's 10-13-12 Barron's via BI
Stock market veterans will tell you that the market tends to do the opposite of what is suggested by a cover story on a widely circulated business news publication.
Famous examples include BusinessWeek's 1971 cover story "The Death of Equities" and the Financial Times' similar story "The Death of Equities?" Indeed, both stories were followed by big rallies.
Today, Barron's goes out on a limb again with a bullish cover story titled "Almost There" in reference to the Dow Jones Industrial Average being 6 percent from an all-time high.
Here's a sample of what author Andrew Bary says:
The Dow Industrials are more reasonable now than at the 2007 peak, when the index traded for 16 times the then-current 2008 earnings estimates. That projection turned out to be way too high, as did even more bullish 2009 projections at that time, as the financial crisis and recession savaged earnings.
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It's bullish that U.S. stocks have done well without much participation by retail investors, who continue to prefer bonds despite historically low rates on Treasuries, mortgage securities, high-grade corporate debt, and junk bonds. The average junk-bond yield of 6% is only three percentage points higher than dividend yields on scores of high-quality, dividend-paying stocks. Junk bonds probably can't go much higher, although they could go a lot lower. If retail investors ever warm to stocks, the Dow could go much higher.
Bary's story includes quotes from Jim Paulsen of Wells capital Management and Blackstone's Byron Wien who both point to a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy.
"With a bevy of reasonably priced stocks, the Dow industrials look poised to set a new record, if not this year then next, and investors can get a nice 2%-plus yield along the way," writes Bary.
Read the whole story at Barrons.com.
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10-15-12 |
RISK On-Off |
ANALYTICS |
RISK - Bearish Signals Indicating a Short to Intermediate Correction / Consolidation
Bullish And Bearish Trend In The Stock Market Right Now 09-27-12 RBC Capital Markets via BI
Bearish: The volatility index (VIX) is extremely low, signalling complacency in the markets
Bearish: Sentiment among active Investors

Bearish: Around 80% of the S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day moving averages
Bearish: The Put/Call ratio is historically low, which means very few people are worried about prices falling
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10-15-12 |
PATTERNS |
ANALYTICS |
MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK -Oct 14th- Oct 21st, 2012 |
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EU BANKING CRISIS |
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SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS [Euope Crisis Tracker] |
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RISK REVERSAL |
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CHINA BUBBLE |
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JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION |
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BOND BUBBLE |
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CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT |
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GEO-POLITICAL EVENT |
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MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week |
GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES |
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Market Analytics |
TECHNICALS & MARKET ANALYTICS |
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COMMODITY CORNER - HARD ASSETS |
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THESIS Themes |
FINANCIAL REPRESSION |
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CORPORATOCRACY - CRONY CAPITALSIM |
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GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE |
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SOCIAL UNREST |
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CENTRAL PLANNING |
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STATISM |
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CURRENCY WARS |
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STANDARD OF LIVING |
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GENERAL INTEREST |
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TO TOP |
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