THESIS 2011: Beggar-Thy Neighbor -(OPEN ACCESS - 37 Pages of 217) >> GO

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SEPTEMBER 2012: GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINT - (Subscription Plan III)

STALL SPEED : Any Geo-Political, Economic or Financial Event Could Trigger a Market Clearing Fall

As we reported last month, Global Economic Risks have taken a noticeable and abrupt turn downward over the last 60 days. Deterioration in Credit Default Swaps, Money Supply and many of our Macro Analytics metrics suggested the global economic condition is at a Tipping Point. Though we stated "Urgent and significant actions must be taken by global leaders and central banks to reduce growing credit stresses" nothing has occurred even after the 19th disappointing EU Summit to address the EU Crisis. Some event is soon going to push the global economy over the present Tipping Point unless major globally coordianted policy initiatives are undertaken. The IMF recently warned and reduced Global growth to 3.5%. This is just marginally above the 3% threshold that marks a Global recession. This would be the first global recession ever recorded. The World Bank is "unpolitically'projecting 2.5%. The situation is now deteriorating so rapidly, as to be impossible to hide anylonger.

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SEPTEMBER 2012: MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (Subscription Plan II)

MONETARY MALPRACTICE : Moral Hazard, Unintended Consequences & Dysfunctional Markets - Monetary Malpractice has had the desired result of driving Investors into becoming Speculators and are now nothing more than low-odds Gamblers. There is a difference between investing, speculating and gambling. At one time these lines were easy to comprehend and these distinctive groups separated into camps with different risk profiles in which to  seek their fortunes. Today investing has become at best nothing more than speculating and realistically closer to outright gambling.

The reason is that vital information is either opaque, hidden or manipulated. Blatant examples such as: the world of off balance sheet debt, Contingent Liabilities, Derivative SWAPS, Special Purpose Vehicles (SPV), Special Purpose Entities (SPE), Structured Investment Vehicles (SIV) and obscene levels of hidden leverage make a mockery out of public Financial Statements. Surely if we get our ego out of this for a moment we can see that stockholders are now nothing more than gamblers? What is worse is that the casino is rigged. With Monetary Policy now targeting negative real interest rates, it is forcing the public out of interest bearing savings and investing, and into higher risk vehicles they would have shunned historically. They have no choice as the Monetary Malpractice game is played against them.

There is an old poker player adage: "when you look around the table and can't determine who the patsy with the money is, it is because it is you." MORE>>

MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNO-FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

SEPTEMBER 2012: MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - (Subscription Plan IV)

The market action since March 2009 is a bear market counter rally that has completed a classic ending diagonal pattern. The Bear Market which started in 2000 will resume in full force when the current "ROUNDED TOP" is completed. We presently are in the midst of of a "ROLLING TOP" across all Global Markets. We are seeing broad based weakening analytics and cascading warning signals. This behavior is typically seen during major tops.  This is all part of a final topping formation and a long term right shoulder technical construction pattern.  - The "Peek Inside" shows the detailed coverage available this month.

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AUGUST 2012: TRIGGER$ (Subscription - Plan V)

TRIGGER$ publications combine both Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis together offering unique perspectives on the Global Markets. Every month “Gordon T Long Market Research & Analytics” publishes three reports totalling more then 380 pages of detailed Technical Analysis and in depth Fundamentals. If you find our publications TOO detailed, we recommend you consider TRIGGER$ which edited by GoldenPhi offers a ‘distilled’ version in a readable format for use in your daily due diligence. Read and understand what the professionals are reading without having to be a Professional Analyst or Technician.

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	PART I - Understanding FINANCIAL REPRESSION
	PART II - FINANCIAL REPRESSION in Europe
	PART III - FINANCIAL REPRESSION in the US & ASIA
	PART IV - Preparations for FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Password: macro

PATTERNS - Consolidation or Topping Pattern?

Forget 666; 808 Is The Number Of This Market's Beast 10-13-12 ZH

Presented with little comment, except to say - it seems, as Boaz at EminiAddict points out, that the S&P 500 likes to travel around 808 points from swing low to swing high. Extending the analog suggests a drop to 565 on the S&P 500 by mid-2014.

and using EminiAddict's channel projection... suggests a 565 swing low to come...

Click to read annotations

ANALYTICS - Topping Signals Starting to Show

Percent Buy Index (PBI) Gives Sell Signal 10-12-12 Decision Point - Carl Swenlin

This week our Percent Buy Index (PBI) for the S&P 500 dropped below its 32-EMA and generated a sell signal. The PBI tracks the percentage of stocks in a given index that are on intermediate-term buy signals, and it is one of many indicators that we follow. The PBI does not currently affect our primary timing model (which is still on a buy signal), but it does offer an early warning of possible problems ahead.

The chart below shows the SPX PBI over a three-year period. Obviously, its crossover signals are not infallible, but downside crossovers at overbought levels are generally bad news. Additionally, notice the negative divergence -- lower PBI tops against higher price tops.

For the Nasdaq 100 Index, the PBI sell signal was generated over two weeks ago, and the negative divergence is much more severe. This reflects that the smaller-cap stocks in the index are fading and that larger-cap stocks are holding the index aloft. This is not a good thing, but it can persist longer than we might think.

It is possible that prices will behave indecisively (move sideways) until after the election, but the PBIs are giving signs that, no matter who wins, the market is likely to head lower.

ANALYTICS - Major Contrarian Warning Signal

UH-OH: Check Out The Cover Of The New Barron's 10-13-12 Barron's via BI

RISK - Bearish Signals Indicating a Short to Intermediate Correction / Consolidation

Bullish And Bearish Trend In The Stock Market Right Now 09-27-12 RBC Capital Markets via BI

Bearish: The volatility index (VIX) is extremely low, signalling complacency in the markets

Bearish: Sentiment among active Investors

Bearish: Around 80% of the S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day moving averages

Bearish: The Put/Call ratio is historically low, which means very few people are worried about prices falling