PUBLIC POLICY - Views on Politicians Just Get Lower and Lower

01-08-13 George Washingtonblog via ZH

We’ve previously noted that Congress is less popular among Americans than Communism, BP during the Gulf oil spill, Nixon during Watergate or King George during the American Revolution.

Public Policy Polling has a new poll out showing that Congress is less popular than:

• Cockroaches
• Lice
• Root Canals
• Colonoscopies
• Traffic Jams
• Used Car Salesmen
• or Genghis Khan

The poll did not examine whether – as in China – politicians are viewed as less trustworthy than prostitutes.   But given that regulators sleep with industry-bought prostitutes, it is hard to tell where one ends and the other starts.

Postscript:  Obviously, my comparison of politicians with prostitutes is not factually correct, is over-the-top, unfair and offensive.  We extend a sincere apology … to the “professional” women.

Politicians are not prostitutes … they are in fact pimps.

CORPORATE EARNINGS - Cyclical Highs

What If Corporate Earnings Have Topped Out? 01-08-13 Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog via ZH

The market may have reached cyclical highs in corporate earnings. That does not bode well for additional stock market advances.

Note that real earnings (CPI adjusted) in '09 fell to the levels of the 1920s-30s, 1890s, and 1870s, and to the levels of the 1970s in nominal terms. A "typical" cyclical decline would take earnings back to the long-term trend from 1932 and the log trend line at $40s-$50s from $87 today. 

Also, recall that the Fortune 300 firms have revenues equivalent to 50% to 100% of private GDP at $425,000/employee, so they are the economy. A decline of 50% for profits would be the equivalent of 10% of private GDP, which would match or exceed the decline in '08-'09, risking an increase in the Unemployment rate of 50-100% and a fiscal deficit exceeding 100% of tax receipts after Social Security and Medicare receipts.

Reported earnings of the S&P 500 (SPX) are highly cyclical with a periodicity of ~51 months. Earnings are contracting year-over-year (yoy) as occurred in late '07 and early '08, early '01, etc. Profits as a percentage of GDP at 10-11% are 65-70% above the historical average and 130% above the historical average during recessions and bear market troughs, implying the risk of up to a 55-60% decline in profits and profits as a percentage of GDP, i.e., a roughly $1 trillion decline or an equivalent of 10% of private GDP.
The 10-yr. average P/E and 16- and 20-year real changes and real total returns to date for the secular bear market imply the risk of a crash at some point in the next 1/2 to 4 years and no real change to the S&P 500 for 20 years, indicating just how grossly overvalued stock prices are historically.

4th Quarter Earnings Will be an Unmitigated Disaster (EconMatters)

SHILLER PE - 5 Year Shiller Returns Correlation

The Predictive Power Of The Famous Shiller PE Ratio 01-08-13 BI

GLOBAL - Youth Unemployment

The Elements Of Social Unrest Loom Large Across Europe 01-07-13 BI

GLOBAL - European Youth Unemployment

Brand New Data On Youth Unemployment — The Scariest Numbers In Europe 01-08-13 BI

Click to Enlarge

STATISM - How Indoctrination Occurs

The 9 Step Process Bankers Use to Force Global Slavery Upon Humanity 01-09-13 smartknowledgeuvia ZH

"None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free."- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

Below is the nine step process bankers have used to enslave us all with nary a peep of resistance until recent times. Hopefully recognition of this process can help us to free ourselves from the grip of bankers that wish to financially destroy us all.

(1) Teach lies as truth like “markets are free” and “we need to spread democracy to the rest of the world.” Plant agent provocateurs in all movements of resistance like OWS to discredit these movements whenever possible.

Bankers teach lies like “free markets exist” throughout all business curricula taught in the institutional academic system. When Central Banks set artificial interest rates, this means the free market is not setting interest rates. Bankers are rigging stock markets, real estate markets, currency markets, and commodity markets all for their benefit only and to the detriment of all other humans on our planet. Furthermore, if you study democratic principles and whether governments that claim to be democracies actually abide by these principles, you will discover that most every “democratic” government operates on a fascist platform and not a democratic one. Stating that a free market co-exists in a country in which a Central Bank retains the monopolistic power to set interest rates is as impossible a relationship as the physics maxim that states two objects cannot occupy the same space at the same time.

Furthermore, bankers use the lies they teach in school to further other lies like the existence of Capitalism. Without free markets, Capitalism cannot exist. If free markets do not exist anywhere in the world because Central Banks, and not the free market, set interest rates, then by logic, Capitalism cannot exist. Yet, I’ve met brainwashed subjects at Occupy Wall Street protests in Hong Kong that argued that the basis of people’s economic suffering today is Capitalism and that Communism is the answer to the world’s economic problems. This false belief also allows wretched misanthropes like former Fed Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to deflect blame away from himself and write stupid articles full of lies like ”Don’t Blame Capitalism For All This Income Inequality”, an article in which he argues that capitalism and free markets should not be blamed for today’s global economic inequities between the bankers and the “have nots”. This typical reverse psychology ploy is one that banksters are notoriously fond of. By stating that you shouldn’t blame “capitalism and free markets” for global economic failures, Greenspan knows that since people don’t trust him, that they will fall into his trap and believe the opposite of what he says – that capitalism and free markets are responsible for the creation of massive global income inequities today even though neither “capitalism” in its purest sense nor “free markets” exist anywhere in the world. These clever psychological ploys also allow Greenspan to write the lie-filled article, “Fed Didn’t Cause the Housing Bubble”, and still have a large percentage of the masses gobble up and digest this disinformation without question like it was their daily breakfast cereal.

(2) Commandeer and effectively take over all control of global governments, mass media, state police, and federal military elements to suppress truth from reaching the masses.

Simon Johnson wrote about how bankers have taken over governments in his excellent article "The Quiet Coup".  These two excellent articles, here and here, explain how banks directed state police and government surveillance agencies to crush all dissent and opposition to their criminal activities. The fact that state police and government agencies bowed down to the bankers like subservient servants proves that these countries in which such incidences are taking place have long been far more fascist than democratic. Mussolini or Pinochet could not have asked for better cooperation and greater obedience from state police and government surveillance agencies than the bankers received.

(3) Take over the education system, design it to dumb down instead of enlighten the masses, and export this model to the rest of the world.

Western bankers have funded and exported to the rest of the world an institutional academic system that serves as a behavior modifaction camp responsible for dumbing down young adults and turning them into obedient, non-thinking worker bees. This is how you create a New World Order in which just a few thousand bankers can capably control 7 billion people and keep them in line and obedient at all times. See here for more information.

Bankers and industrialists like the Rockefellers and the Carnegies financed the development of our global education system during the American Industrial Revolution, and thus were able to promote the lies they wanted the masses to embrace such as the myth that America experienced a “revolution” in 1776 and that US President Abraham Lincoln ended slavery in 1863. The bankers were always happy to give the colonialists the illusion of gained “freedom” as an outcome of the “revolutionary” war in exchange for maintaining their control over the newly formed republic’s monetary supply. Thus, the Rothschild banking family quickly established the Bank of the United States (which has since become the US Federal Reserve today) through their colonialist agents in the United States in 1791. When this bank’s charter expired in 1811, Nathan Rothschild of the Bank of England and the Rothschild banking clan declared a grave warning: “Either the application for the renewal of the charter is granted, or the United States will find itself involved in a most disastrous war.” When US Congress chose not to renew the bank's charter, Nathan Rothschild responded, “Teach these impudent Americans a lesson. Bring them back to Colonial status.”

Even though African Americans were given their physical freedom in 1863, they were never granted their financial freedom by the bankers. How does Lincoln end slavery in America with his 1863 Emancipation Proclamation when just 50 years later, the bankers financially enslaved everyone with the founding of the US Federal Reserve. To declare that Abraham Lincoln ended “slavery” in America in 1863 is as big a myth as the lie that Columbus “discovered” a land called America. How does one “discover” a land that had already been inhabited for hundreds of years by millions of Indians? Furthermore, Columbus wasn’t even the first European to arrive in America as Vikings had beat him to this feat by hundreds of years. A.M. Reeves, N.L. Beamish and R.B. Anderson’s The Norse Discovery of America documented in great detail the epic and ferocious battles between the Vikings and the Native inhabitants of Vinland (the Viking word for America) as far back as the 10th century, about 500 years before Columbus stumbled upon America. So how did Lincoln end slavery and how did Columbus discover America? The answer to both questions is that they did not. The end of physical enslavement was merely transformed into a new kind of slavery - financial and mental enslavement. After the Rothschilds, the Rockefellers, the Warburgs, JP Morgan, etc. were able to form the US Federal Reserve in 1913, bankers extended their financial slavery empire over not only blacks, but also over whites, over Asians, and over Latinos, extending their empire of slavery all over the world. Thus slavery was never eradicated in 1863.

(4) Teach young adults that a tax on tea and a tax on stamps caused the American colonialists to hate the British monarchy and triggered a successful revolt in 1776, when it was the debt enslavement component of the monetary system and the bankers’ system of theft through numerous taxes that truly caused the revolt.

Benjamin Franklin desired that the colonies issue their own debt-free, interest-free money called Colonial Scrip. As I’ve explained in (3), the Colonialists lost this battle and thus, there was never a successful “revolution” against the bankers in 1776 though bankers have ensured, through control of our education system, that they teach the lie in all American schools today that America gained its independence on July 4, 1776. Just to make sure all Americans believe this, we celebrate this faux Independence Day every year as a national holiday. If Americans learned that the people truly lost the Revolutionary War in 1776, this might incite another revolution today. This is why the bankers teach the lie of the people winning the Revolutionary War in all American schools.

(5) Learn from the mistakes of Kings by hiding the robberies of citizens’ money and disguising this robbery as a silent tax called “inflation”. Transform the violent method of tax collection that lead to the beheading of past members of nobility during Medieval times into a passive method of automatic deductions from paychecks.

Bankers studied previous Kings’ taxation system such as Great Britain’s King George’s system and his use of armed soldiers to collect these taxes. In 1765, King George sent 40,000 armed troops to assure collection of taxes from his subjects and he forced the colonists to also provide living quarters and food to his troops or risk being shot and killed. Bankers studied this method and learned that this type of violent armed method of collecting taxes would always lead to violent insurrection and revolt. Thus bankers learned how to steal our money today in a passive manner that is not nearly as offensive as the method employed by previous Kings throughout history.

Today, all of us still provide the money for the living quarters of bankers and provide all the money to feed the bankers but we do not realize it. The bankers have employed the exact same system of robbery that King George instituted against the American colonialists that infuriated them, but were clever enough to change the method by which they execute their brazen theft and extortion. Today bankers extort money from all of us through automatic deductions from each pay check so that there is no need to send armed soldiers to collect taxes from those that might resist this scam. Furthermore, they deliberately devalue money and rob every single human on the planet through the implementation of a “silent tax” called inflation.

(6) Engage in huge disinformation and propaganda campaigns to convince citizens in every country that income tax is not flat out robbery and not equivalent to King George’s act of sending 40,000 soldiers to force colonists to turn their hard-earned money over to him.

Bankers have successfully sold this lie by misinforming us and telling us that we receive benefits from our income tax payments and that it would be “unpatriotic” to even think for a second to not pay our income taxes to the bankers. In fact, the reality unearthed by the Grace Commission report in January, 1984, under US President Ronald Reagan is this: "100% of what is collected [in income taxes] is absorbed solely by interest on the Federal Debt and by Federal Government contributions to transfer payments. In other words, all individual income tax revenues are gone before one nickel is spent on the services taxpayers expect from government." What are transfer payments? Payments for programs like welfare but also payments for programs like the massive 2008 $850 billion banker bailout program. Who receives interest payments on the Federal Debt? 100% of interest payments on the Federal Debt are directly funneled into the private banking accounts of the private banking families that own the Federal Reserve. So who is receiving nearly 100% of all income tax payments of all citizens in every country in the world? The answer is that nearly 100% of our income tax payments are transferred to just a few powerful private banking families. In fact, the Grace Commission report even hinted that the government performed studies to determine the outer limits of income taxation that they could get away with before it would trigger a revolt among the taxed citizenry.

(7) Sell concepts like “nationalism”, and incite religious-based and race-based hate to divide and conquer people from uniting against a segment of society (bankers) that commits a long list of atrocities that would have landed anyone else in jail centuries ago.

Bankers have been able to convince many blacks to blindly and stupidly support President Obama just because he is black and to falsely call anyone that also doesn’t support Obama a “racist”. Bankers have been able to convince many Jews to blindly and stupidly support Zionist agendas and cowardly and falsely accuse those that don’t support Zionist agendas of being an anti-semite. Bankers have been able to convince many people to blindly and stupidly support false wars and government agendas and label anyone that does not also support these items as “unpatriotic”, “un-American” or “un-whatever-country-you-are-from.”

Yes, bankers are behind all these hate-filled campaigns because they know that they can successfully divide and conquer the masses and if they do so, that a divided opposition will never be able to defeat them. They have also used their puppet Presidents and Prime Ministers to often perform favors for police and the military, such as increasing their pay and benefits, to falsely gain the loyalty and protection of those elements of society that should be most opposed to them. Bankers have taken their cue from big druglords and underworld crime bosses that have used these same tactics to gain the protection and loyalty of their communities. In Philadelphia, mobster Joey Merlino used to give away turkeys to housing project residents every Thanksgiving and throw Christmas parties for the homeless to gain the loyalty of people in his community despite his murderous ways. In the more expansive criminal drug underworld, ex-cocaine kingpin Pablo Escobar was, and still is, considered a hero among many of the poor in Colombia for all the jobs he provided for them, not to mention all of his charity. In Mexico, the most violent druglord today, “El Chapo” Guzman, is often also viewed as a modern-day “Robin Hood” and a hero by the poor in Mexico and is afforded loyalty and protection among many of the poor for his many acts of benevolence for the poor.

However, it is a huge mistake of morality to overlook the massive crimes of our political and financial leaders for their “fake” charity work as it is a huge mistake of the poor to adore violent murderous druglords just because they make their lives better while they destroy the lives of millions. This very selfish attitude of “I don’t care what my leader does as long as he helps me out” even if he’s destroying the lives of hundreds of thousands, or millions of other people, is the very tactic that bankers choose to employ to effectively divide and conquer people. Instead of being loyal to someone just because of his skin color, religion, nationality or race, we all need to abandon our pre-disposed affinities for people that look like us or share our belief systems, and instead, start looking at these situations strictly on the basis of morality. We need to ask ourselves not the questions of mindless robots but rather tough questions such as,”Is what my President or Prime Minister doing moral?” If so, then support him. If not, then do everything you can to get him out of office no matter your race. Ask, “Is what my government doing moral?” If so, then support it. If not, then stop the stupid and divisive ad-hominem attacks against dissenters by wrongly labeling them as “unpatriotic” no matter your nationality. Ask, “Is Israel acting morally?” If so, support this nation-state. If not, then stop supporting it immediately no matter your religion.

It really is that simple. For people that are open minded enough to learn the truth about the ulterior motives of why the same bankers (Rothschilds) that were integral in founding the US Federal Reserve also were very integral in founding, and funding, the creation of Israel, as well as the Bank of Israel, watch Chapter 26 at 1:10:28 at Chapter 29 at 1:19:27 of this video. Though there are many things in this video I don’t agree with, I believe that these two chapters provide a legitimate explanation of how bankers have used the religion dissension surrounding Israel as part of their divide and conquer campaign against the entire world. These two segments are very careful to make the distinction between humanitarian, compassionate, authentic Jews and their misanthropic, inauthentic Zionist counterparts. In fact, I believe that the distinction between truly religious Jews and their radical Zionist counterparts is very similar to the distinction between radical Muslims and religious, moral Muslims and radical Christians and religious, moral Christians.

There are those that continually smear all Jews for many of the world's financial problems and not only do I believe this tactic to be wrong but I also believe that anyone that uses this tactic falls right into the banker trap of their divide and conquer strategies. The banker-funded Zionists are the small faction of Jews and non-Jews (US Vice President Joe Biden is a self-proclaimed Zionist) that need to be investigated for creating global financial problems. Though this point is likely to generate the most hateful comments and unjustified criticism of any of the nine points of this article, consider this point. If you agree with the other eight points of this article, would it be worth the risk to discuss something entirely false as true, and that could potentially discredit the rest of this entire article? The answer, of course, is no. I only included this point after much careful research convinced me that the facts surrounding this point were well documented and because I believed that this point is crucial enough to include in the 9 main points of this article for anyone desiring to understand the truth about how bankers divide us and keep us from unifying against them. Consequently, please have an open enough mind to consider the possibility of the truth of this point as well and research the facts before you close your mind to a view that may differ from the one you currently hold.

(8) Falsely teach people that paper fiat currency and paper derivative products offered by bogus gold and silver derivative markets of the LBMA and COMEX are better stores of value and purchasing power than physical gold and physical silver, even though the below chart displays the incredible progression in the prices of gold and silver every year in USD since 2001.

The London price-fix of gold has risen for 13 straight years and silver has risen 11 out of the last 13 years. Thus, it is completely bizarre that the vast majority of the investing public are still scared off by declarations of banking shills and commercial banking investment advisers that tout global paper stocks such as Chipotle Grill, Facebook, and Bank of America as better investments than physical gold & silver, which they describe as “risky”. Volatile, yes. Risky, no.

Because of (1) through (8), most citizens, especially those that live in the West and have been subjected to generations of banker propaganda, have no understanding of the fact that downside volatility in gold and silver is introduced artificially through computer HFT (High Frequency Trading) algorithms and bear no reflection upon the reality of physical gold and physical silver supply-demand determinants. Because nearly 100% of the things bankers teach us in school and through the media about the global monetary system and financial markets is a lie, I see, time and time again, masses of people befuddled by gold and silver price movements to the downside that have no fundamental basis of explanation and that can only be explained by banker manipulative games. This occurs among those of us that have no understanding of points (1) through (7) of this article. Thus, to this date, shockingly most people have not taken advantage of the crystal clear gold and silver trend shown in the above timeline and have no idea that converting their fiat paper currencies or fiat GLD & SLV ETFs into real assets like physical gold and silver can serve as a very effective weapon to fight back against banker criminality. Though it makes no sense to put faith in a piece of paper that has almost no intrinsic value and is truly a barbarous relic and to forgo ownership of real hard assets like physical gold and physical gold, the majority of masses, due to internalization of steps (1) through (7), continue to ignore reality and logic. However, read this excerpt from the book The Golden Gift, to understand how converting paper fiat currency into real assets like physical gold and physical silver can help re-establish our economic freedoms and help cut our bondages of financial slavery imposed upon us by the bankers.

(9) Teach people that the law is the final word so that they believe that anything legal is moral and anything illegal is immoral. The bankers have flipped the paradigm of morality on its head by convincing people that anything legal is moral and anything illegal is immoral when in fact, many things they have legislated as illegal is still moral and many things they have legislated as legal is highly immoral.

If truly moral people ran the world, probably 50% of the things legislated as legal would become illegal and 50% of the things legislated as illegal would become legal overnight. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs & Crime 2012 World Drug Report, heroin, cocaine, and all other "illegal" drugs killed about 200,000 people last year. On the contrary, an estimated 100,000 to 450,000 deaths occur from "legal" prescription drugs every year in the United States alone, and in 2009, "legal" prescription drugs were responsible for 4.5 million hospital visits. However, due to a lack of focus by law enforcement agencies on "legal" drugs, accurate statistics of deaths from legal pills varies widely, and if I had to guess, I would say that the Big Pharma lobbyists do everything in their power to suppress the true number of deaths every year that occur globally due to their "legal" drugs. Thus, the War on Drugs is more about the parties that profit from it than about a sincere desire to abolish the murder and crime associated with it. There really should be a War on All Wars instead. Because of the creation of unthinking sheep that our education system produces, far too many people today react instinctively by thinking that anything illegal is wrong and that anything legal is right, thus diminishing their ability to recognize that our modern banking system amounts to a legalized institution of financial slavery.

As always, never believe anything printed or stated on TV “news” channels (especially CNN – just google “Amber Lyon” to understand why) unless you independently verify it yourself, including everything in this article. Unfortunately there are more lies than truth circulating among all mass media distribution channels today so nothing should be accepted at face value. You must verify everything yourself until you are satisfied that you have arrived at the truth. Uncover the truth, and when you do, do everything you can to spread the uncovered truth to the four corners of the earth. This is how we will regain our freedoms.

About the author: JS Kim is the founder and Managing Director of SmartKnowledgeU, a fiercely independent investment research & consulting firm that focuses on gold & silver as a means of resisting the tyranny of the global banking cartel and of restoring sound money that would lay the foundation for the reintroduction of sustainable, organic economic growth to the world. Follow him on twitter @smartknowledge, get his free newsletter available here, and read a free excerpt of his book The Golden Gift here.

Japan Will Monetize European Debt 01-07-13 Zero Hedge

Just when we thought America would be alone in crossing into the montary twilight zone where so many Keynesian lunatics have gone before, and where trillion dollar platinum coins fall from the sky right onto the heads of all those who have not even the faintest understanding of money creation, here comes Japan:

• ASO: JAPAN TO BUY ESM BONDS
• ASO SAYS JAPAN TO BUY ESM BONDS USING FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES
• ASO: ESM PURCHASES WILL HELP TO STABILIZE YEN
• JAPANESE FINANCE MINISTER ASO SPEAKS TO REPORTERS IN TOKYO
• ASO SAYS AMOUNT OF JAPAN’S ESM BOND BUYS UNDECIDED

For those who have forgotten, the E in ESM stands for European (the S for Stability), not Japanese (Stability). Otherwise it would be, er... well, JSM. Keynesian at that. But yes - Japan will now proceed to "stabilize" itself by monetizing European debt. Because its own JPY 1 quadrillion in debt was not enough.

As for a rehash of the old lunacy, which just like the OMT has driven the JPY much lower on nothing but innuendo and speculation, and will end the second the BOJ's plan is formalized, we get:

• ASO WANTS STATEMENT ON BOJ, GOVT COOPERATION
• AMARI SAYS GOVT, BOJ TO COOPERATE ON PRICE TARGET

SHADOW HOUSING INVENTORY - Banks Soon to Start Unloading

Fannie Says Household Financial Situtation Outlook Slumps To Worst Since August 2011 01-07-13 Fannie Mae

The full details:

• The percentage who expect their personal financial situation to get
  worse over the next 12 months continued to rise, reaching 20 percent and
  the highest level since August 2011.
• Thirty-seven percent reported significantly higher household expenses
  compared to 12 months ago, a 3 percentage point increase over the past
  month and the highest level since December 2011.
• At 39 percent, the share of respondents who say the economy is on the right track fell by 5 percentage points from last month’s survey high.
• Twenty-two percent of respondents say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago, a slight increase over last month and a 5 percentage point increase over September.

So, to recap, the US household's financial situation is bad and getting worse, with expenses "significantly higher" than a year ago.

BAC's 6+ month delinquent mortgages now amount to a whopping $64 billion

Fannie May was already in the news this morning courtesy of the $10 billion settlement announced between the GSE and Bank of America. Let's make it two in a row courtesy of the firm's monthly housing survey in which one aspect, the ongoing expectation that home prices will continue to rise driven by the recent momentum, should come as no surprise: there is always hope that this dead cat bounce is different and unlike the previous three, and will result in something substantial. It won't, once all those millions of properties held on bank books and generating zero cash flow (remember: BAC's 6+ month delinquent mortgages now amount to a whopping $64 billion) are unleashed on the market once the subsidized housing price is perceived as sufficient by most as a new, and satisfactory, clearing price. What was surprising was the consumer outlook on the economy and personal finances, which was diametrically opposite, and in fact those who expect that their personal financial situation will get worse in the next 12 months rose to the highest since August 2011

STUDENT LOANS - Here Comes the Student Loan Baliout

Here Comes The Student Loan Bailout 01-07-13 Zero Hedge

"Pay as You Earn Repayment Plan"

2012 is the year the student loan bubble finally popped. While on one hand the relentlessly rising total Federal student debt crossed $956 billion as of September 30, and was growing at a pace that will have put it over $1 trillion by the end of 2012, the one data point confirming the size, severity and ultimately bursting of this latest debt bubble was the disclosure in late November by the Fed that the percentage of 90+ day delinquent loans soared from under 9% to 11% in one quarter.

Which is why we were not surprised to learn that the Federal government has now delivered yet another bailout program: this time focusing not on banks, or homeowners who bought McMansions and decided to not pay their mortgage, but on those millions of Americans, aged 18 to 80, that are drowning in student debt - debt, incidentally, which has been used to pay for drugs, motorcycles, games, tattoos, not to mention countless iProducts. Which also means that since there is no free lunch, all that will happen is that even more Federal Debt will be tacked on to replace discharged student debt loans, up to the total $1 trillion which will promptly soar far higher as more Americans take advantage of this latest government handout. But when the US will already have $22 trillion in debt this time in four years, who really is counting? After all, "it is only fair" that the taxpayer funded "free for all" bonanza must go on.

The latest debt bailout, not surprisingly is not titled "Yet another taxpayer funded bailout for those who bought things they can't afford on credit" as that would not be very politically prudent, especially for those politicians who still have taxpaying citizens as their voters. Instead, its name is the much more PC: "Pay as You Earn Repayment Plan." Alas, it really should be called the former, because what it does is it incentivizes Americans to borrow even more Federal student loans, well aware that there will now always be a cap on the associated monthly interest payment which will never leave a mark regardless what the full underlying loan notional is. It also provides for full debt discharge should the borrowers end up with cushy Federal jobs - because the one thing the US government needs afford is more debt-saddled government workers.

What is the "Pay as You Earn Repayment Plan"? The WSJ explains:

A new federal program should make it easier for some recent college graduates to keep their student-loan payments manageable.

The new option, known as the "Pay as You Earn Repayment Plan," lets eligible borrowers sharply lower their monthly loan payments and qualify for loan forgiveness quicker than they might otherwise.

"It's a very good safety net for students who borrow too much," says Mark Kantrowitz, publisher of the financial-aid site FinAid.org. "If your debt exceeds your annual income, you will probably benefit."

Pay as You Earn, which took effect on Dec. 21, "is designed to help offset the effects of the recession for student borrowers most likely to take a hit in this tough job market," says Lauren Asher, president of the Institute for College Access and Success, which has pushed for the creation of income-based repayment plans.

Which in the New Normal, means everyone with a student loan will benefit. It also means, that courtesy of knowing this safety net is there, more and more people will take advantage of the government's latest generosity with other taxpayer's money.

What are the terms of this new bailout?

The new program comes at a time when rising student-loan balances—amid a still shaky job market—have weighed heavily on many families.

Typically, federal student loans must be repaid within 10 years. At current interest rates, that can work out to a monthly payment of roughly $300 for a borrower with $26,000 in debt.

Pay as You Earn, by contrast, limits student-loan payments to 10% of "discretionary income" as defined by government formulas. Borrowers who make regular payments could have the remaining unpaid amounts forgiven after 20 years.

So much for student debt being non-dischargeable: borrow hundreds of thousands, but make your monthly payment of a hundred or so bucks, and in 20 years you will be debt free, courtesy of US taxpayers. Actually, scratch that: one doesn't even have to make a payment!

In some cases, borrowers with low incomes could be required to make a zero-dollar payment and would still be considered current on their loan. Monthly payments can increase or decrease each year based on the borrower's income and family size.

For those who think getting full debt forgiveness in 20 years is far too long, why there's a loophole for that too: just go "work" for Uncle Sam:

Borrowers with public-service jobs may qualify for loan forgiveness after just 10 years.

As for eligibility "constraints":

To be eligible for the program, borrowers must have taken out their first federal student loan after Sept. 30, 2007, and received at least one federal student loan after Sept. 30, 2011. Borrowers also must meet eligibility cutoffs based on the size of their debt, their discretionary income and family size.

The U.S. Department of Education's Pay As You Earn calculator, available at studentaid.gov, can help you determine if you qualify. Borrowers can apply for the program online or by contacting the loan servicer that collects their payments on behalf of the federal government.

In other words, virtually all people who were responsible for the diagonal take off in the Federal student loan total in the current depression are now eligible for what will eventually be full debt discharge.

So let's get this straight:

1. go to some "everyone who applies is admitted" community college
2. take on the biggest Federal loan one can get
3. use the proceeds for everything besides the tuition (of course)
4. be unable to find a job after graduation (naturally)
5. plead poverty, accusing evil employers who don't hire those who majored in Foosball, and make "zero" payments while remaining in "compliance"
6. get a job working for the government, wait ten years, and have the entire loan magically disappear.

And there it is: incentives for the common, and very much broke, man in the New Normal.

If there is anyone out there who thinks this will not result in a "charge it" feeding frenzy and that the Federal student loan total will not go absolutely parabolic going forward, please raise your hand.

Of course, what is not discussed, is who is on the other side of all those forgiven loans. And the answer, dear taxpaying US readers, is starting at you in the mirror. Because all the Federal government will do is transfer the unfunded obligation, which has already been used to satisfy the purchase of goods and services, from one individual to the whole group.

But when one is dealing with the government of a country that is no longer even fit to be defined as "banana", what is adding one more trillion between already insolvent counterparties.

Finally, yes, this means the Fed just tacked on one more year of QE to its $1 trillion/year in US debt monetization, which also means the Fed's balance sheet will now also be used for to fund student loan forgiveness, among so many other things.

Insolvent students of the world, unite!

US MONETARY - Big Picture Understanding

How the Federal Reserve is Showing Financial Fear 01-04-13 Elliott Wave International

Have you heard about the Fed's 180 degree turn?

Think about one of those movie scenes when the leading man does all he can to defeat the big, bad enemy -- punches, kicks, slams, stabs, shoots -- but the bad guy just won't go down. In fact he doesn't even look fazed. That's when the protagonist really starts to worry. In real life, that's where the Federal Reserve finds itself today.

The central bank has thrown everything in its arsenal at the economy, but most key economic metrics have barely budged. In the epic struggle, the Fed's policy has been turned upside down.

In the latest Elliott Wave Theorist, Bob Prechter noted:

The Fed has changed its policy, and it has done so in dramatic fashion. Look at this history of what the Fed has done.

Prechter continues his commentary:

You can go all the way back to 1929, and [the Fed] was doing what its job is supposed to be, which is to put dampers on exuberance and only make money easier when the markets are down and the economy is contracting.

Following that plan, the Fed raised the discount rate in 1929 to 6%. Here at the 1937 high, it raised margin requirements and bank reserves. In the 1968 bull market, when the public was excited about stocks, the Fed raised margin requirements and raised the discount rate to 6%. In 2000, right at that high, the Fed again raised its discount rate to 6%. In 2006, when the housing market was topping, and a year before stocks topped, it raised it to 6¼%.

What is it doing now? The market is right back in the rarified areas that it was when the Fed dampened speculation, but now the Fed is doing the opposite. Not only has the Fed not raised the discount rate to 6%, or even to 1%, but it is keeping the Fed funds rate at zero, and it is promising a 0% Fed-funds rate through 2015, three whole years.

This 180-degree turn tells me that the Fed is in a panic.

The Elliott Wave Theorist, Special Video Issue, October 2012

If the Federal Reserve itself is frightened about the financial future, perhaps you should be concerned too.

INFLATION - Is First and Foremost a Monetary Phenonemon

Inflation Since The American Revolution 01-08-13 Michael Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog via ZH

As is clear by this chart, inflation was virtually unheard of until the Creature from Jekyll Island (the Federal Reserve) took over.  However, more importantly, things didn’t really start to get bad until the 1970?s right afterNixon took the nation off the gold standard in 1971.  Since that time, America has seen a period of non-existent real wage growth and a huge gap grow between the rich and the poor ever since.  Nothing like livin’ the debt slave dream!

Match to Long Term DJIA Chart ABOVE and Fed Actions

Q4 2012 EARNINGS SEASON - Divergences Need to Be Reconcilled

The Three Key Charts Before The Launch Of Earnings Season 01-07-13 Zero Hedge

A total of 22 companies, 4% of the S&P 500 market cap, have reported 4Q12 results. Of these, 64% have topped revenue estimates and 68% topped earnings estimates (considerably lower than average). Aggregate earnings results have exceeded estimates by 1%, revenues have missed by 0.5%, and blended margins are down 12bps y/y. As Barclays' Barry Knapp notes, the last several quarters, earnings seasons have generally been characterized by revenue misses, earnings beats (but by a shrinking amount), and negative guidance; as a result, there has been a negative skew to stock prices. In other words, in the immediate  aftermath of the report, earnings beats are marginally outperforming the market, while misses get hammered, primarily due to weak forward guidance. The sustainability of earnings growth remains key given the weak top-line environment and these three self-explanatory charts should hopefully put some fundamental color around the perspective thatearnings season will be a negative for the market overall.

Top-down 'macro' and bottom-up 'micro' ain't believing it...

Expectations beggar belief...

and no matter what you are told, P/Es are not 'low' or due to re-rate anytime soon...

But don't stop believing...

PATTERNS - US Macro Surprise Index

What Happened The Last Four Times That US Macroeconomic 'Surprises' Hit A Three-Month Low? 01-06-13 Zero Hedge

The last week or two has seen Citi's economic 'surprise' indicator (ECO) take a decided turn for the worse. At Friday's close, the index that tracks not just absolute performance of the major macro prints but their relative performance to expectations, had hit a three-month low. Since the top in the S&P 500 in late 2007, the 3-month rate-of-change has shifted significantly negative four times - and each of these times has been followed by a significant downturn (or change of trend) in the S&P 500. As of Friday's close, the ECO index's rate-of-change shifted negative (its most negative in 5 months) and has signaled a quite intriguingly divergent lower high (from Q4 2011' previous peak) compared to the S&P 500's higher high. Is the short-term drop in ECO due to 'cliff' indecision? Or will earnings season be the market's catalyst to realize the changing macro landscape?

Late 2009 saw a period of very unusual absolute stagnation in macro data (while QE1's liquidty lifted stocks) but once the rate-of-change pushed consistently negative, the top was in for stocks in mid 2010.

The blue dotted-line indicates the lower high that macro data has shown during this latest cycle (as opposed to higher high in equities)

Chart: Bloomberg

VIX - Cost of Risk Plummets

Last Week, We Witnessed A Historic Collapse In The VIX 01-06-13 BI

Why we haven’t had a Revolution - The Age of Turbo-Paralysis

Revolution Vs "Turboparalysis" - The Real New Normal 01-08-13 Excerpted from Michael Lind, originally posted at The Spectator via ZH

The age of turboparalysis Why we haven’t had a revolution

More than half a decade has passed since the recession that triggered the financial panic and the Great Recession, but the condition of the world continues to be summed up by what The Spectator's Michael Lind calls ‘turboparalysis’ - a prolonged condition of furious motion without movement in any particular direction, a situation in which the engine roars and the wheels spin but the vehicle refuses to move.

...

The greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression might have been expected to produce revolutions in politics and the world of ideas alike. Outside of the Arab world, however, revolutions are hard to find. Mass unemployment and austerity policies have caused riots in Greece and Spain, but most developed nations are remarkably sedate.

...

By now one might have expected the emergence of innovative and taboo-breaking schools of thought seeking to account for and respond to the global crisis. But to date there is no insurgent political and intellectual left, nor a new right, for that matter.

But why hasn't this occurred?

Why has a global calamity produced so little political change and, at the same time, so little rethinking? Part of the answer, I think, has to do with the collapse of the two-way transmission belt that linked the public to the political elite.

...

But there is a deeper, structural reason for the persistence of turboparalysis. And that has to do with the power and wealth that incumbent elites accumulated during the decades of the global bubble economy.

How did they get that power?

In essence, the bubble economy was a dysfunctional marriage of export-driven economies like China, Japan and Germany and debt-addicted nations like the US and many of Germany’s European neighbours. As international trade imbalances built up, from the 1980s to the 2000s, so did the wealth and power of elites who profited from the system, from Chinese Communist princelings with a stake in overbuilt export industries to the financiers of Wall Street and the City of London.

And that broke...

A global economic system that relied on excessive borrowing by consumers, particularly in the US, was bound to grind to a halt when fearful consumers switched from borrowing to saving. But the crash was only the first stage of the adjustment. The second stage is rebalancing.

But...

these reform agendas, from the downsizing of the overbuilt industrial sectors of mercantilist Asian nations to the pruning of finance in the Anglo-American world, threaten the very interests that profited from the preceding bubble and now glare defensively at a changing world, like Fafnir crouched upon his hoard. In the US, the wealth of the bubble-swollen financial sector has been transmuted into political power via campaign contributions.

So why no uprising against the elites? THIS IS CRITICAL

For their part, the masses seldom unite against the classes in democracies because they are divided among themselves. When nations realise that they will be collectively poorer in the future than they had expected, the usual result is not solidarity but rather civil war, by means of ballots and sometimes bullets. Confronted by a crisis like the Great Recession, each section of society uses its political influence to try to maintain its share of the national wealth, while forcing the cost of economic adjustment to others. The rich try to shift adjustment costs to the middle class, who in turn try to pay for their own subsidies and entitlements by cutting the programmes of the poor.

But is it coming?

History is sobering, in this regard. The Great Recession, which continues despite a technical ‘recovery’, can be viewed as the third great economic collapse of the industrial era, following the ‘Long Depression’ of the 1870s-1890s and the Great Depression of the 1930s. The earlier two episodes of global economic crisis witnessed setbacks for liberalism, democracy and free trade and the flourishing of illiberal nationalism, racism, imperialism and beggar-thy-neighbour economics. While slow growth combined with national rivalries have not yet engendered anything like the autarkic economics of the earlier two crises, it would be premature to predict the survival of present levels of financial and economic integration in a world that wobbles between feeble recoveries and renewed recessions.

Nowhere is there greater potential for conflict than in the relationship between the two poles of the now-collapsed bubble economy — the US, which specialised in exporting debt to China, and China, which specialised in exporting manufactured goods to the US. Since the Great Recession began, American attitudes toward China have grown strikingly more negative.

Is war coming?

The last global depression was brought to an end by the second world war. This time a ‘hot’ war is extremely unlikely and a cold war merely possible. Nevertheless, geopolitics may do what domestic politics has failed so far to do and free the world’s leading countries from ongoing turboparalysis.

The various national systems from which today’s leading global elites benefit, from hyper-industrial Germany to financialised Britain, grew up under the Pax Americana of the late 20th century. The US offered free security, a global currency, and the world’s largest open consumer market to allies — and potential allies — who were encouraged to specialise in non-military roles including industrial production (first Japan and Germany, later China) or finance (Britain and the US). The world order that resulted was well suited to East Asian and German industrialists and American and British bankers.

But while the US will remain the leading global military power for some time, the Pax Americana cannot survive the disappearance of a common Soviet threat and the diffusion of wealth and power to rising giants like China, India and Brazil. If, as many believe, the US will adopt a policy of moderate inflation in the future to help melt away the icecap of its public and private debt, the dollar as a store of value will be less attractive to foreigners.

If not, then what?

In the long run, regional hegemons, including China and Germany, may be compelled to take on some of America’s duties, from bailing out bankrupt countries to providing regional security. But that would require their political elites to focus less on economic statistics and more on their people and the world. The equivalent in the US would be a rebalancing of economic power and prestige away from financiers towards others — perhaps leaders of the fracking-driven energy renaissance or advanced manufacturing.

In some form or another, profound shifts like these are coming, because, as Mrs Thatcher would have said, There Is No Alternative. Going back to the pre-2008 world is not an alternative. Neither is the present state of suspended animation in politics and policy.

Nothing lasts forever. At some point today’s extended intermission in domestic and world affairs will give way to a new act. But for now the vehicle remains stuck in the ditch, while the wheels continue furiously to spin. The age of turboparalysis goes on.

STATISM - Self Censorship of the Media

U.S. Government Using Terrorism Against the American People 01-07-13 George Washington Blog via ZH

We've documented that - by any measure - America is the largest sponsor of terrorism in the world.

But remember, terrorism is defined as:

The use of violence and threats to intimidate or coerce, especially for political purposes.

The American government has also been using violence and threats to intimidate and coerce the American public for political purposes.

For example, the U.S. government is doing the following things to terrorize the American public into docility and compliance:

• Labeling peaceful protest as terrorism

• Using homeland security laws to crush dissent

• Spying on all Americans

• Threatening to indefinitely detain American citizens without cause and without any due process

• Even threatening to kill any U.S. citizen on a whim

U.S. constitutional law has taught for hundreds of years that chilling the exercise of our liberties is as dangerous to freedom than directly suppressing them.

For example, as we've previously noted, reporters censor themselves:

Initially, there is tremendous self-censorship by journalists.

For example, several months after 9/11, famed news anchor Dan Rather told the BBC that American reporters were practicing “a form of self-censorship”:

There was a time in South Africa that people would put flaming tires around peoples’ necks if they dissented. And in some ways the fear is that you will be necklaced here, you will have a flaming tire of lack of patriotism put around your neck. Now it is that fear that keeps journalists from asking the toughest of the tough questions…. And again, I am humbled to say, I do not except myself from this criticism.

What we are talking about here – whether one wants to recognise it or not, or call it by its proper name or not – is a form of self-censorship.

Keith Olbermann agreed that there is self-censorship in the American media, and that:

You can rock the boat, but you can never say that the entire ocean is in trouble …. You cannot say: By the way, there’s something wrong with our …. system.

As former Washington Post columnist Dan Froomkin wrote in 2006:

Mainstream-media political journalism is in danger of becoming increasingly irrelevant, but not because of the Internet, or even Comedy Central. The threat comes from inside. It comes from journalists being afraid to do what journalists were put on this green earth to do. . . .

There’s the intense pressure to maintain access to insider sources, even as those sources become ridiculously unrevealing and oversensitive. There’s the fear of being labeled partisan if one’s bullshit-calling isn’t meted out in precisely equal increments along the political spectrum.

If mainstream-media political journalists don’t start calling bullshit more often, then we do risk losing our primacy — if not to the comedians then to the bloggers.

I still believe that no one is fundamentally more capable of first-rate bullshit-calling than a well-informed beat reporter – whatever their beat. We just need to get the editors, or the corporate culture, or the self-censorship – or  whatever it is – out of the way.

Former Fox News reporters say the same thing.

Any reporters who don't censor themselves are harassed .  Whistleblowers are prosecuted ... or even tortured by the government.

The fact that the government is spying on all Americans - and using the information to launch political witch hunts - makes us all watch what we say, and makes us careful about who we talk to.  As the ACLU notes:

Peaceful protesters should not be treated as potential terrorists nor spied upon by federal government agents.  Not only is this a misuse of public funds that could be used to find real terrorists, it chills free speech activities and inhibits the public debate on important issues.

A federal judge found that the NDAA's provision allowing indefinite detention of Americans without due process has a "chilling effect" on free speech. And see this and this.

The threat of being labeled a terrorist certainly dissuades and chills our willingness to  exercise our rights.

Especially when power has become so concentrated that the same agency which spies on all Americans also decides who should be assassinated.

And fear of terror makes people docile and stupid ... and the government has intentionally whipped up an exaggerated hysteria of terror by "others" in order to scare the people.

The bottom line is that - like Stalin, Mao or Hitler - the U.S. government is using  violence and threats to intimidate and coerce its own people for political purposes ... to consolidate power and suppress dissent.