WEF GLOBAL RISKS - Chronic Fiscal Imbalances Ranks First

The 17 Biggest Risks To Our Hyperconnected World 01-13-13 BI

1. Chronic Fiscal Imbalances
2. Rising Greenhouse Gas Emissions
3. Water Supply Crises
4. Mismanagement Of Aging Populations
5. Cyber Attacks
6. Severe Income Disparity
7. Failure Of Climate Change Adaptation
8. Pervasive Entrenched Corruption
9. Extreme Volatility In Commodity Prices
10. Persistent Extreme Weather
11. Global Governance Failure
12. Mismanaged Urbanization
13. Chronic Labor Market Imbalance
14. Species Overexploitation
15. Rising Religious Fanaticism
16. Terrorism
17. Critical Systems Failure

World Economic Forum - Global Risks 2013

COMPLEX NETWORKS

The Cases – Making Sense of Complex Systems

The 50 global risks in this report are interdependent and correlated with each other. The permutations of two, three, four or more risks are too many for the human mind to comprehend. Therefore, an analysis of the network of connections has been undertaken to highlight some interesting constellations of global risks seen in Figure 3.

In Section 2, these constellations of global risks are presented as three important cases for leaders: “Testing Economic and Environmental Resilience” on the challenges of responding to climate change, “Digital Wildfires in a Hyperconnected World” on misinformation spreading via the Internet, and “The Dangers of Hubris on Human Health” on the existential threat posed by antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

Each case was inspired by the findings from an initial network analysis and further developed through extensive research into current trends, potential causal effects, levels of awareness and possible solutions. Unlike traditional scenario methodologies, the risk cases do not attempt to develop a full range of all possible outcomes. They are instead an exercise in sensemaking as well as a collective attempt to develop a compelling narrative around risks that warrant urgent attention and action by global leaders. Readers are encouraged to refine these cases further and to develop their own scenarios based on the data presented.iv

Resilience – Preparing for Future Shocks

This year’s Special Report examines the increasingly important issue of building national resilience to global risks. It introduces qualitative and quantitative indicators to assess overall national resilience to global risks by looking at five national-level subsystems (economic, environmental, governance, infrastructure and social) through the lens of five components: robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness, response and recovery. The aim is to develop a future diagnostic report to enable decision-makers to track progress in building national resilience and possibly identify where further investments are needed. The interim study will be published this summer, and we invite readers to review the proposed framework and to share ideas and suggestions with the Risk Response Network.

GLOBAL TRENDS - National Intelligence Council

Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds Natiional Intelligence Council

A report by the National Intelligence Council predicts that the United States will lose its superpower status by 2030, but that no country — including China — will be a hegemonic power.

Instead, the report says, power will shift to “networks and coalitions in a multipolar world.”

The council, which wrote Global Trends 2030, was established in 1979. It supports the U.S. director of National Intelligence and is the intelligence community’s center for long-term strategic analysis.

The council’s intelligence officers are drawn from government, academia and the private sector.

FULL REPORT: Global Trends 2030

“The world of 2030 will be radically transformed from our world today,” the report concludes. “By 2030, no country — whether the U.S., China, or any other large country — will be a hegemonic power.”

Intel report sees U.S. losing superpower status by 2030

MEGATRENDS: The 6 'Gamechangers' That Will Impact The Planet For Decades 01-11-13

Gamechanger 1: The Crisis-Prone Global Economy

• CRISIS ECONOMY: “Drastic measures” will be necessary to curb growing fiscal liabilities in developed countries.
• CRISIS ECONOMY: The global share of financial assets becomes much more evenly distributed.
• CRISIS ECONOMY: Commodity instability will hit China and India, who remain import dependent.
• CRISIS ECONOMY: Durations of business cycles will become significantly shorter and less smooth.

Megatrend 2: The Governance Gap

• GOVERNANCE GAP: Growing middle classes in developing countries will increase demand for rule of law and government accountability.
• GOVERNANCE GAP: About 50 countries qualify as falling somewhere between "free" and "not free."
• GOVERNANCE GAP: And growth in the number of free countries has stalled in the past decade.
• GOVERNANCE GAP: Climate stress, which will exacerbate water scarcity, could actually cause some governments to collapse.

Gamechanger 3: Potential For Increased Conflict

• CONFLICT: Tensions have increased as the international system has become more fragmented and existing norms of cooperation fall out of favor.
• CONFLICT: Resource competition will intensify.
• CONFLICT: Cyber attacks have increased.

Gamechanger 4: Wider Spread Of Regional Instability

• REGIONAL INSTABILITY: The Middle East's youth population is getting younger, and unemployment is rising.
• REGIONAL INSTABILITY: Defense spending in Asia is increasing.
• REGIONAL INSTABILITY: Latin America's growing middle class will clash with countries' inherent populism.
• REGIONAL INSTABILITY: Using a new global power index, China will still surpass the US, but by 2040 instead of earlier.

Gamechanger 5: The Impact Of New Technologies

• TECH: Three key technology areas will see wide inovation: information, the ability to store which is getting increasingly cheaper
• TECH: Robotics and manufacturing, which is already affecting unit labor costs worldwide...
• TECH: And resource technology, which will have to increase to compensate for declining crop yields.

Gamechanger 6: The Role Of The United States

• AMERICA: For now, the U.S. continues to dominate the world in a number of areas.
• AMERICA: And the U.S.'s share of the oil market is only going to increase. Read more:
• AMERICA: But by 2050, China will enjoy greater purchasing power parity than the U.S.
• AMERICA: Our demographic prosperity window is closing fast, while others' have just opened.

DEMOGRAPHICS - Immigration, Regionalization, Dependency and Obesity

AMERICA 2050: Here's How The Country Will Look Three Decades From Now 10-19-12 BI

1. The Census says our population will jump another 100 million in just a few decades
2. Put aging and immigrants together, and you get a working-age population that will be "majority minority" in 2050
3. 11 emerging "megaregions," economies become so interdependent that they form larger distinct entities
4. Dependency ratio — the proportion of nonworking to working people — is gonna surge. It's not clear whether we'll be able to support them
5. There's another thing that's gonna happen...we're gonna get fatter. this, not aging, is what's going to cause medical costs to skyrocket

CHINA - Social Unrest

Why Chinese Leaders Are All Reading Alexis de Tocqueville 01-13-13 Patrick Chovanec, An American Perspective From China