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| MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - Mar. 17th - Mar. 23rd, 2013 | |||
EU BANKING CRISIS |
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CYRPUS - Moves to Plan D as Time Running Out PLAN A - Steal Cash from Depositors (Wealth Tax Versions 1 & 2) PLAN B - Steal Cash from Pension Plans, Sell Assets & Facilities to Russia PLAN C - Solidarity Fund (CCO- Collaterilized Cypriot Obligations) to buy Good Bank/Bad Bank with Capital Controls
PLAN D - Double Dip on Large Depositors over E500,00 (12.2%) and E100,000 (9.46%).
It seems that the Cypriot government is going full circle on its plans to save its nation and its people. As UK Think Tank Open Europe notes, "it now seems we have come all the way back round to the deposit levy as a solution in Cyprus. Overnight, the EU/IMF/ECB Troika rejected the plans for a Cypriot solidarity fund, particularly one based on pension assets and gas reserve revenues (which German Chancellor Angela Merkel specifically spoke out against)." The new - Plan 'D' - (Plan A - Haircuts; Plan B - Beg Russia for Bailout; Plan C - Solidarity Fund) appears to be moar haircuts and double-dip on the large depositors (seemingly what Brussels wants anyway). Plan 'D' - a restructuring and bigger deposit levy (a 12.2% tax on deposits above €500,000 or a 9.46% deposit on deposits above €100,000 would yield the necessary €3.5bn) - "may amount to trying to burn the larger depositors twice," as the plan to shift bad assets to a bad bank (along with the large uninsured depositors) and wound down (meaning 20-40% losses) and still face the initial large-deposit-tax - leaving the Russians large depositors with 50%-plus losses.
And why this Plan 'DD' may still be unwelcome in Brussels... (Via FT)
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03-22-13 | EU CYPRUS |
4- EU Banking Crisis |
EU - Capital Controls Arrive in the EU for First Time Cyprus Officially Passes Capital Controls Into Law 03-22-13 Zero Hedge Cyprus became the first Eurozone country to officially implement governmental capital controls into legislation. At this point it had no choice: whatever happens with the deposit haircut, or with everything else, it is now inevitable that the local Cypriots will do all they can to pull as much money from domestic banking system as possible following the complete loss of faith and trust in banks, which is why the government had no choice but to intervene with its own "controls." Sadly, this marks a milestone in the development of the Eurozone - it's all downhill, and accelerating, from here. There are various other proposals which are currently being voted on, all of which are secondary to the Capital Controls one (the restructuring of the broke banks is perhaps the next most important one), until tomorrow's vote on deposit haircuts. A photo from today's historic session in Cypriot parliament, in which the first every capital controls in Eurozone history were voluntarily legislated can be seen below.
JPMorgan On The Inevitability Of Europe-Wide Capital Controls 03-22-13 JPM via ZH Because ELA funding facility is limited by the availability of collateral (and the haircuts applied to those by the central bank), and cutting the Cypriot banking system completely from ELA access is equivalent to cutting it from the Eurosystem making an exit from the euro a matter of time. This makes it inevitable that capital controls and a capital freeze will be imposed, in their view, but it is not only bank deposits that are at risk. A broader retrenchment in funding markets is possible given the confusion and inconsistency last weekend's decision created for investors relative to previous policy decisions. Add to this the move by Spain, which announced this week a tax or bank levy (probably 0.2%) to be imposed on bank deposits, without details on which deposits will be affected or timing, and the chance of sparking much broader deposit outflows across the union are rising quickly. |
03-22-13 | EU CYPRUS |
4- EU Banking Crisis |
CYRPUS - Moves to Paln C as Time Running Out PLAN A - Steal Cash from Depositors (Wealth Tax Versions 1 & 2) PLAN B - Steal Cash from Pension Plans, Sell Assets & Facilities to Russia PLAN C - Solidarity Fund (CCO- Collaterilized Cypriot Obligations) to buy Good Bank/Bad Bank with Capital Controls
Union: One Survived; One May Not 03-22-13 Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box via ZH There is a distinction in the law of the United States and Great Britain between private property and investments. Your own money and your own house are treated differently than the ownership of securities. Both countries, also, have due process of law where courts decide who is entitled to what under the bankruptcy laws. The government does not and cannot mandate the seizure of private property without this due process. Then let us compare this to the demands of the EU and Germany. Cyprus Presents "Plan C" - The Solidarity Fund 03-21-13 Via ekathimerini via ZH Given the public unrest of the last few days, it would appear that the Cypriot government, having tried and failed with Plan A (wealth tax versions 1 and 2) and Plan B (beg the Russians directly), they have decided to go with Plan C (Collateralized Cypriot Obligations). The current proposal, ekathimerini reports, to theoretically be voted on in a few hours (about to be in cabinet), is that Cyprus will form an investment fund to raise the capital needed to payoff their EU overlords. This fund will be collateralized by state assets, possibly including natural gas revenues, church property, and social security fund reserves. Though some form of deposit tax was 'apparently' not ruled out, it seems the next last best hope for Cyprus is begging the Russians to extend a loan and begging the world to fund more debt from a nation about to see huge capital outflows. The approach is, it appears, a 'solidarity' approach - rather than tax the current wealth of depositors (and hand it over to Troika), 'tax' the future possibility of wealth creation and sell that to the next greater fool sovereign wealth fund (or will the ECB decide that these CCOs are acceptable collateral?)
Clock Ticks on Cyprus Nation Aims to Restructure Bank to Secure Aid, Stay in Euro 03-21-13 WSJ The proposals, if they take effect, would allow authorities to
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03-22-13 | EU CYPRUS |
4- EU Banking Crisis |
CYPRUS - Plan B as Bad As Plan A Creditors Set to Reject Cyprus's Plan B 03-20-13 WSJ Cyprus's counterproposals include
Experts from the troika—the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund—were briefed Wednesday on Nicosia's Plan B to secure a €10 billion ($12.93 billion) bailout after Parliament resoundingly rejected the deposit-levy plan attached to the original agreement. Cypriot authorities proposed turning pension-fund assets into government bonds in a bid to raise about €4.2 billion of the €5.8 billion the deposit tax would have raised. But troika officials weren't convinced this would be a viable option, the officials said. While the plan would bring money into state coffers, it would be in the form of debt, making the country's already heavy load unsustainable, they said. Cyprus's counterproposal would also see the country's two biggest banks—Laiki Bank and Bank of Cyprus PCL—wound down, their bad assets transferred into a bad bank and their good ones merged into a new smaller entity. The Cypriot government hopes to sell the good bank to Russia's VTB Bank, one person said. Cypriot Finance Minister Michalis Sarris was in Moscow Wednesday to promote this deal in talks with Russian government officials. But the troika also wasn't satisfied with this part of the plan because of concerns about who would pay for the bank resolution and the impaired assets, one official said. VTB on Wednesday said it has no plans to take stakes in Cypriot banks. The resolution of the two major banks is part of a plan drafted by the IMF, a third official had said on Tuesday. Cypriot officials said two pieces of legislation, one to impose capital restrictions to stem deposit flight and one to enact the bank-resolution plans, have been drafted and are likely to be taken to Parliament on Thursday, one official said. |
03-21-13 | EU CYPRUS |
4- EU Banking Crisis |
CYRPUS - Basic Situational Charts GERMANY & IMF Expect the Cypriot Contribution (of the 17.5B Euro total) to be:
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03-21-13 | EU CYPRUS |
4- EU Banking Crisis |
CYPRUS - Criminal "Confidence Game" Payouts to Everyone at the Tax Payers Expense Europe's Final Gambit: 20%-30% Haircut For Oligarchs To Force A Russian Bailout 03-19-13 WSJ via ZH It now seems sure that the ongoing discussion in Cyprus' government will see a "no" vote as the WSJ is reporting a rather stunning gamble by the Cypriots (and by Cypriots we mean European leaders) to force the Russians to bear the brunt of the cost of the bailout. The non-resigned Cypriot FinMin is heading to Russia to propose a deal that includes imposing a 20% to 30% levy on Russian-held deposits in Cypriot banks, which could cost them billions of euros. In exchange, Russia will be given:
The apparent quid pro quo in this deal does nothing to hide the fact that private property was stolen and while pointing fingers just at the Russians may play well for PR purposes, it is described as "a long shot" as the Kremlin notes, "it's practically impossible to talk without knowing details." Via WSJ,
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03-20-13 | EU CYPRUS |
4- EU Banking Crisis |
EU BANKING CRISIS - Cyprus Pushes it Back Near the Edge Euro Bank Jog Turns into a Bank Run 03-18-13 AlphaNOW Reuters Target 2 balances HAD begun to unwind, while the deposit flight that had taken hold across much of the periphery was reversing course. Markets HAD become convinced that European policy makers had stared into the abyss, realised both the nature and the magnitude of the crisis, and decided to do something about it. Nothing fundamental had changed: the hard work was all still to come. But things WERE moving in the right direction, and policy makers APPEARED to be back in charge. All of a sudden, things now look shaky. |
03-19-13 | EU MONETARY |
4- EU Banking Crisis |
BANKRUPTCY - Does Anyone Care How a Capitalist System (versus a Crony Capitalist System) is Supposed to Work? Note: Don’t get confused by the word “capitalism” in the phrase “crony capitalism”. Crony capitalism is not at all free market capitalism. Instead, it is actually the same thing as fascism, communist style socialism, kleptocracy, oligarchy or banana republic style corruption
Cyprus Bailout Math; Can Depositors Be Left Whole? 03-17-13 Mish First the bondholders should have been wiped out. If that was not enough then the deposits above the €100,000 deposit guarantee should have been hit. Then and only then should the average citizen been hit.Cyprus Bailout Math What I wrote above was a guess, but an accurate one. Reader Jeff Baryshnik, Baryshnik Capital Management Inc., in Toronto provides some specifics in an email to me a few hours ago. Much of the money in Cyprus was "hot money" from Russia seeing unfair tax advantages. So what? Is that any reason to punish every Cyprus citizen? Clearly the answer must be "no". Perhaps one can create additional spots for illegal deposits (if they could be proven), and one could (and should) distinguish between deposits above and below the deposit guarantee limit, but otherwise, the order suggested by Baryshnik seems quite reasonable. |
03-19-13 | EU CYPRUS |
4- EU Banking Crisis |
CYRPUS
CYPRUS - Breaks Public Trust, Signals Enormnity of EU Banking Problems and Incites the Politics of Germany Distating Terms "I object to the entire scheme. First the bondholders should have been wiped out. If that was not enough then the deposits above the €100,000 deposit guarantee should have been hit. Then and only then should the average citizen been hit. ... And guess what. The average Cyprus citizen would likely not have been hit. Instead, the EU mandated a "screw every citizen" policy to protect the senior bondholders. This is not going to sit well in Cyprus or anywhere else, and all for a mere EU 5.8 billion Euros. The stupidity and arrogance of these nannycrats is staggering.The nannycrats think this will stop "contagion". They are nuts." Mish 03-17-13 PUBLIC TRUST It breaks a cardinal rule, namely public trust on which money relies. Had th public thought their savings were at risk from a restructuring, savers would have run on local banks, hence it is different from a tax SIGNALS & POLITICS Frederik Ducrozet, an economist with Credit Agricole, tells Business Insider: I think the Cyprus deal as it stands a big deal indeed, mostly in terms of bad signaling (as the ongoing normalisation in Eurozone capital flows remains fragile and vulnerable to sudden stops) and politics (Germany still imposing its rules despite growing discontent in the South). There were multiple reports which indicated that Germany told Cyprus: Confiscate your depositors' money or leave the Eurozone. That's a terrible political dynamic, and on top of Italy it exacerbates a bad overall political situation.
#Cyprus Depositors Vent Fury Through Social Media 03-17-13 Zero Hedge
CYPRIOT PRESIDENT ADDRESSES NATION: We Were Given Two Options Like Blackmail 03-17-13 BI
Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades just addressed the nation in a dramatic Sunday night speech regarding the bailout of Cyprus, which will see a one-time tax on everyone with cash in Cypriot banks.
The basic gist:
Depositors Pay Price in Cyprus Bailout Deal 03-16-13 WSJ
The deal, announced early Saturday, marks the first time in the euro zone's five-year-old financial crisis that depositors in bloc's banks will lose money. "We have taken immediate measures so that electronic transfers cannot take effect before banks reopen on Tuesday," said the minister, who took office just two weeks ago. Jörg Asmussen, a member of the executive board of the European Central Bank, stressed that amounts in excess of the levy will remain fully available. Accounts held in Greek offshoots of Cypriot banks will also be spared. Cyprus, which first applied for help last summer, has proved a major headache for the euro zone, mostly because
As they struggled to bring down the rescue costs, euro-zone finance ministers and the troika of the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF chose to go ahead with the deposit tax despite warnings it could unsettle savers and investors in other weak European countries. "This is a special situation, with a very specific banking sector, with a very specific structure and size, which calls for this specific package," said Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister who chaired the discussions. He said similar measures weren't being considered for other countries that have received bailouts. Officials hoped that the contribution of depositors will make it easier to pass the rescue package through parliaments in rich countries like Germany, the Netherlands and Finland. Lawmakers there have balked at bailing out foreign depositors, many of them Russians, whom they suspected of taking advantage of Cyprus's lax banking laws.
The IMF, which had been the strongest advocate for having the bailout burden fall partly on depositors, will contribute to the rescue, said the fund's Managing Director Christine Lagarde. Two officials said the IMF is expected to chip in €1 billion of the overall €10 billion needed. Olli Rehn, the European Union's economic affairs commissioner, said Russia had indicated it was willing to give Cyprus more time to repay a €2.5 billion rescue loan from 2011, and may also lower the interest it charges. Mr. Sarris is expected to travel to Moscow on Wednesday to nail down the final terms. The struggle to agree on a bailout for tiny Cyprus, which accounts for just 0.2% of the euro zone's economy, once again underlines how vulnerable the currency union remains to economic shocks in any member nation. "Cyprus is of systemic relevance to the euro area," said Mr. Rehn. "Not to provide assistance to Cyprus would have posed a risk of undoing the progress that has been painstakingly made over the past year." Ministers also agreed to give Portugal and Ireland more time to repay their bailout loans, but didn't provide any details. The Cyprus Bailout Is Unfair, Short-Sighted, And Self-Defeating 03-17-13 The Economist IT IS not a fudge, but it is still a failure. The euro zone’s bail-out of Cyprus, which was sealed in the early hours of Saturday, did get the bill for creditor countries down from €17 billion to €10 billion, as had been rumoured. But the way it did so was somewhat unexpected.
Almost €6 billion of the savings for taxpayers in euro-zone countries came from losses imposed on depositors in Cyprus’s outsize banks. A one-off 9.9% levy will be imposed on all deposits over the insurance threshold of €100,000 before banks reopen after a bank holiday on Monday. That idea had been in the air for a while, not least because a lot of those uninsured deposits came from outside Cyprus, and from Russia in particular. The politics of saving wealthy Russians with money loaned by thrifty Germans were always going to be tricky. What had not been anticipated was a 6.75% loss for savers with deposits in Cypriot banks below the insurance ceiling. Cypriots woke up this morning to find bank branches closed to them. By the time they will be able to get at their money, it will be too late. The offer of equity in banks to replace the value of their savings is meant to be a balm but it’s not a choice they would have made. Why this decision was taken is not yet clear. The most plausible explanation is that the Cypriot government itself preferred to spread the pain rather than wipe out non-resident depositors and jeopardise its long-term prospects as an offshore financial centre for Russian and other money. Whatever the rationale, it is a mistake for three reasons.
The bail-out appears to move Europe further away from the institutional reforms that are needed to resolve the crisis once and for all. Rather than using the European Stability Mechanism to recapitalise banks, and thereby weaken the link between banks and their governments, the euro zone continues to equate bank bail-outs with sovereign bail-outs. As for debt mutualisation, after imposing losses on local depositors, the price of support from the rest of Europe is arguably costlier now than it ever has been. It is also hard to square this outcome with the ongoing overhaul of finance. The direction of efforts to improve banks’ liquidity position is to encourage them to hold more deposits; the aim of bail-in legislation planned to come into force by 2018 is to make senior debt absorb losses in the event of a bank failure. The logic behind both of these reform initiatives is that bank deposits have two, contradictory properties. They are both sticky, because they are insured; and they are flighty, because they can be pulled instantly. So deposits are a good source of funding provided they never run. The Cyprus bail-out makes this confidence trick harder to pull off. Other than that, it is a really good deal. MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: The EU Had Four Valid Reasons To Force Cypriot Depositors To Pay Up 03-17-13 BI According to El-Erian, the EU actually had four valid reasons to make such an unprecedented move.
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03-18-13 | EU CYPRUS |
4- EU Banking Crisis |
| SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS [Euope Crisis Tracker] | 5 | ||
| CHINA BUBBLE | 6 | ||
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| MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week | |||
GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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RESERVE CURRENCY - Steady, Planned Erosion of US A Global Reserve Currency BRICS to mull development bank, forex reserve pool 03-20-13 ChinaDaily Leaders of BRICS countries will consider establishing a development bank and foreign exchange reserve pool at its fifth summit, a Chinese Foreign Ministry official said Wednesday. The fifth leaders' summit of BRICS countries, namely Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, is scheduled on March 26-27 in Durban, South Africa. BRICS deliberated the possibility of establishing a development bank last year. Details including the scale, functions, structure, and location will be discussed at the summit, said Ma Zhaoxu, assistant foreign minister. Progress regarding this area is expected at the summit, Ma said. "As an important part for financial cooperation, the bank will help BRICS sustain financial risks and provide support for the development of African countries," he said. It is also expected that the bloc will make progress in establishing a foreign exchange reserve pool aimed at forming a capital security network among BRICS. The scale and respective shares of each country are being deliberated and will be discussed at the summit, Ma said. It is the first time that a BRICS summit is being held on the African continent, with the cooperation between BRICS countries and Africa high on the agenda. The theme of the summit is "BRICS and Africa -- partnerships for integration and industrialization." Bilateral talks between BRICS and African countries, a joint press conference and a breakfast meeting with representatives from business circles are arranged for the two-day summit. Following the summit, the leaders will jointly release a Durban Declaration, according to Ma. The Chinese government expects cooperation in fields of international politics, economics, finance, trade and development in order to help maintain worldwide peaceful development and contribute to global economic growth, Ma said. "It is hoped that through talks among leaders of BRICS and African countries we can strengthen dialogues and cooperations among these nations so that emerging markets and developing countries can have a greater representation and voice in international affairs," he said. China's newly-elected president Xi Jinping will attend the summit.
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03-21-13 | BRIIC | MACRO ECONOMICS |
US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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US CONFIDENCE - Falls As Forecasted in March MATA Research Report People Are More Pessimistic About The Economy Now Than At Any Point In The Past 8 Years 03-22-13 BI Americans are more pessimistic about the immediate future of the economy now than at any point in the past eight years, according to a new poll from the Pew Research Center. Only 25 percent of respondents said that they expected the economy to get better within the next year, according to the poll. On the other hand, 32 percent said they expected things to get worse over the next year. That's a big shift from last year, when Pew found that 44 percent of respondents were optimistic about the next year and just 14 percent were pessimistic. Forty-one percent said they thought the economy would remain the same over the next year. Here's a chart looking at the trend: As a result, President Barack Obama's job approval took a significant hit from February and sank down to 47 percent. Overall, his approval rating has fallen 8 points from a high of 55 percent in December. Despite that, more voters still trust Obama to handle the federal budget than Congressional Republicans — 53 percent of respondents said they had at least a "fair" amount of confidence in him, compared with just 39 percent that said the same of Republicans. |
03-22-13 | US INDICATORS CYCLES CONFIDENCE |
US ECONOMICS |
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COMPLACENCY - Much too High! Setting Ourseleves up for A Shock The Stock Market and the Economy's Apparent Disconnect 03-14-13
"The financial community has changed dramatically. The big banks are focused on creating investment products rather than on allocating capital to borrowers so manufacturers have trouble getting their attention, and U.S. production suffers as a result." John Reed, Former CEO Citigroup, and now chairman of MIT Corp., the governing body of Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Reed contributed to a new MIT report called Production in the Innovation Economy. “As long as there’s a wedge between our ambitions and our means, the crises will keep coming back, I guarantee it” Jan Rivkin, co-author of a new Harvard Business School report, Competitiveness at a Crossroads. CONCEPT OF: "CO-INTEGRATED RANDOM WALKS" (Two Drunks Teid Togther)
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03-21-13 | SEMITMENT CONFIDENCE |
ANALYTICS |
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CIA Chief Tech Officer: Big Data Is The Future And We Own It 03-21-13 BI "You're already a walking sensor platform," Hunt said, referring to all of the information captured by smartphones. "You are aware of the fact that somebody can know where you are at all times because you carry a mobile device, even if that mobile device is turned off. You know this, I hope? Yes? Well, you should." Hunt noted that based on the sensors in a smartphone, someone can be identified (with 100 percent accuracy) by the way they walk — implying that someone could be identified even when carrying someone else's phone. "Since you can't connect dots you don't have, it drives us into a mode of, we fundamentally try to collect everything and hang on to it forever," Hunt said. "It is really very nearly within our grasp to be able to compute on all human generated information." He ends with comments about how the "inanimate is becoming sentient," how cognitive machines (e.g. Watson) are going to "explode upon us," and how technology is moving faster than governments, legal systems, and even individuals can keep up. Here's the full 30-minute presentation
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03-23-13 | THESIS | |
STATE TRANSPARENCY - When Everything is Hidden Behind "National Security" Government Transparency Hits Record Low 03-14-13 Michael Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog via ZH “It’s National Security”…Government Transparency Hits Record Low in 2012 Under Obama Surprise, surprise... the 'most transparent administration ever' is, well, the least transparent. Not that any of you are shocked by this revelation, but a new report by the Associated Press demonstrates just how secret our government and intelligence agencies have become. Not only did they claim “national security” over and over like a bunch of drunk parrots, they also claimed the need to protect “internal deliberations.” Specifically, the number of times the government withheld or censored reports in 2012 was 479,000 times, up 22% from 2011. The CIA denied 60% of requests, up from 49% in 2011. From the Associated Press:
Think about how scary that is. Judges just accept government claims and then the public isn’t allowed to see the relevant parts of her ruling. Let’s now finish with this statement from Alexander Abdo, an ACLU staff attorney for its national security project:
Full article here. |
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2013 - STATISM |
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It Is Always The Tactic Of Governments That Seek To Abuse Power To Select The Most Marginalized And Easily Demonized Targets In The First Instance 03-11-13 Washington's Blog “Find Out Just What Any People Will Quietly Submit To And You Have The Exact Measure Of The Injustice And Wrong Which Will Be Imposed On Them”Constitutional lawyer Glenn Greenwald notes:
German pastor Martin Niemöller initially supported Hitler. But he later opposed him, and was imprisoned in the Dachau concentration camp for years. Niemöller wrote a brilliant poem – First They Came - about the manner in which Germans allowed Nazi abuses by failing to protest the abuse of “others”. This is my modern interpretation of Niemöller’s poem … First they tortured a U.S. citizen and gang member … Then they tortured a U.S. citizen, whistleblower and navy veteran … Then they locked up an attorney for representing accused criminals … Then they arrested a young father walking with his son simply because he told Dick Cheney that he disagreed with his policies … Then they said an entertainer should be killed because she questioned the government’s version of an important historical event … Then they arrested people for demanding that Congress hold the President to the Constitution … Then they arrested a man for holding a sign … Then they broke a minister’s leg because he wanted to speak at a public event … Then they shot a student with a taser gun and arrested him for asking a question of a politician at a public event … Then they started labeling virtually every innocent and normal behavior as marking Americans as “potential terrorists” … Then they threw political dissenters in psychiatric wards … Then they declared that they could label U.S. citizens living on U.S. soil as “unlawful enemy combatants” and imprison them indefinitely without access to any attorney … Then they assassinated an American citizen without any court trial Then they declared that they could assassinate U.S. citizens living on U.S. soil without any due process of law (update) … When they came for me, I originally wrote this poem in 2007. I have updated it with additional verses as current events have unfolded. |
03-20-13 | THESIS | STATISM
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STATISM - The Silent Culture of Concealment & the Incentive System of Collusion Runs the governing bureaucracies. The presstitutes in the establishment media enable the warmongering Protection Racket as a condition of employment. Their lack of investigative reporting is only superseded by their ominous distortion of real patriotic loyalty Ignoring Whistleblowers 03-17-13 BATR.org "We say in this nation that we are looking for people with honesty, integrity, drive and dedication, and then when we find such people, we take them out and whip them." anonymous
A government whistleblower, disclosing classified secrets, risks criminal charges. Defining restricted material usually includes a broad scope of information that casts officials or agencies in a compromising embarrassment. The idea that public servants may be engaged in violating laws is no excuse for blowing the whistle on such abuses if it involves "National Security". This protect the state attitude at all cost argument, is the very definition of institutional cover-up. In war, truth is the first casualty, so said Aeschylus. So throwing the book at Bradley Manning comes as no surprise. Why should anyone be concerned about the intentional dissemination of raw evidence about war crimes, committed in the name of the War of Terror? Most would fail to be moved by the motivations of a stoic prisoner, who uploaded secured computer files to WikiLeaks. Many would cheer his interminable incarceration for disclosing military records. Yet, before you slam the jail shut, reflect upon the Secretly Recorded Audio Leaked of Bradley Manning's Court Statement. Listen to the Full Statement.
Also, view the YouTube video, Bradley Manning Tells Court Public Have the Right to Know About US War Crimes. A cogent reaction from another renowned whistleblower, Daniel Ellsberg of the Pentagon Papers fame, carries the weight of a brave man from another era.
In any political trial, the spirit of the law is sacrificed for the expediency of protecting a debased regime. Balance in prosecution is a concept unknown to a government consumed with punishing any perceived enemy of the state. Attorney Floyd Abrams and Professor Yochai Benkler provide a thoughtful perspective and legal opinion in The New York Times editorial - Death to Whistle-Blowers?
No such mercy from the imperial empire, Manning must suffer the supreme wrath for his transgressions. His admissions acknowledge expected official sanctions, but the sentiment of Daniel Ellsberg reflects the standpoint of many Manning supporters.
Another target of recrimination, seen in the Sibel Edmonds dismissal is a classic example of punishing the whistleblower. Edmonds took a job as a translator at the FBI shortly after 9-11. Her story, stated in the YouTube interview, The Government Is Raping You: Sibel Edmonds, is compelling. Sibel Edmonds Finally Wins, documents her observation in the book, "Classified Woman" and offers a disturbing assessment of her fellow workers.
This characterization of morally challenged federal employees is a direct consequence of a system that protects the cover-ups, while punishing disclosure of conflicting evidence of outright corruption. The silent culture of concealment or the worse incentive system of collusion runs the governing bureaucracies. The presstitutes in the establishment media enable the warmongering protection racket as a condition of employment. Their lack of investigative reporting is only superseded by their ominous distortion of real patriotic loyalty. Whistleblowers function as detectives doing the job that reporters abdicate. Woefully, so few citizens of conscience are willing to jeopardize their individual circumstance for the courage of genuine national security. The always insightful, William F. Jasper of the New American writes in Sibel Edmonds' "Classified Woman".
Forget about the false left-right paradigm. The "War of Terror" being waged by the imperium empire is designed to crush whistleblowers, and keep the brain dead in a zombie trance. Just consider the impact on the Afghanistan campaign if the FBI acted upon the evidence unclosed by Sibel Edmonds that cuts to the heart of the 911 myth assumptions. The military-industrial-security-intelligence complex closes ranks to protect their "Splendid Little Wars". The whistleblowers that expose the lies out of the War Party establishment are only a minor distraction, as long as the public sleeps in their self-induced coma. The Army Times item, Hagel to order review of drone medal precedence, is one such interlude, while the control and command structure continues to aim their weapons at imaginary threats. Who would doubt that the Bradley Mannings and Sibel Edmonds, squealers of state secrets, would be prime quarries for the hunt to eliminate enemies of the state? The only good government snitch is a Gitmo captive. So goes the claims of the governance prosecutors. Loyalty of country is a very dangerous attitude, when your government sponsors state terrorism as a normal activity. The fear to face up to the horrors of administration deceit is the prime activity of the flag waving drones that cheer for more carnage. When Edmonds describes the traitors within the national security structure, the fearful bureaucrats facilitate the ongoing treachery that passes for nationalism. When Manning exposes the documents that prove a genocide policy is in effect, the penalty demanded by the bellicose command is his execution. An honorable whistleblower is a citizen hero. Disobeying dishonest laws is true patriotism. In the end, A Different Philosophy of Civil Disobedience, is needed. Complacency is the countrywide disease of choice. Real patriots oppose jingoistic orders. Stand down . . . |
03-19-13 | THESIS | STATISM |
2012 - FINANCIAL REPRESSION |
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THEFT - The Subtle Game CBO - The Coming Raid on Social Security 02-10-13 Zero Hedge Every politician in America knows that Social Security (SS) is a third rail. Any Pol who tries to mess with the country's largest and most popular entitlement program is going to have the likes of the AARP coming after them. It's not possible to win an election on a platform that advocates cutting back SS. With that in mind, I find it interesting to report that a very credible source is now predicting that Obama AND Congress will take action over the next 24 months that will substantially undermine both the long and short-term health of SS. The legislative raid on SS will certainly total in the hundreds of billions, it could top $1T over the next fifteen years. So who is this "credible source"? And just how is this raid going to happen? The source of this information is the Congressional Budget Office (CBO); the following is how it will play out: SS consists of two different pieces. The Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI). Both entities have their own Trust Funds (TF). OASI has a big TF that will, in theory, allow for SS retirement benefits to be paid for another 15+ years. On the other hand, the DI fund will run completely dry during the 1stQ of 2016. By current law, the DI benefits must be cut across-the-board by 30% on the day that the DI TF is exhausted. This would mean that 11 million people (most of whom are very sick) would get slammed from one day to the next. There is no one in D.C. who wants this to happen. I don't think the American public wants this outcome either. So what are the fixes? 1) Increase income taxes on +$250k of income to pay for the DI shortfall. Maybe, but this will not happen with the current Republican controlled House. 2) Increase Payroll taxes to cover the DI shortfall. I see zero political support for a permanent Payroll tax increase. 3) Cut benefits by 30%. This would be insane - it will not happen with Obama running the show. 4) Kick the can down the road and raid the OASI TF for the annual shortfalls at DI. Of course #4 is the path that will be taken. #s 1, 2 and 3 are not politically feasible. I have been wondering what will happen with the DI conundrum. I was surprised to see that the CBO spelled out what will happen in its report on the Budget and Economy - SS Trust Funds. The report has this footnote:
The "loophole" to drain the OASI insurance is already law - so Congress doesn't have to do anything to raid the retirement fund. The "do nothing" plan is always the best option in D.C. The footnote goes on to provide an estimate for the size of the raid:
DI Trust Fund Cumulative Shortfall ($s in Billions) 2016 -15 2017 -55 2018 -94 2019 -133 2020 -173 2021 -215 2022 -260 2023 -307 Wow! At this rate the raid tops $1T in 2029. This is is a big dent in a Trust Fund of $2.8T. There is an import "tell" from the CBO. In the footnotes it highlights the fact that there is a discrepancy, and uses this an excuse to avoid establishing an adjusted end date for the OASI Trust Fund. (It's not a complicated calculation) What CBO fails to state is that the raid on OASI will result in a significant reduction in the End Date for the retirement Fund. In its report to Congress last year SS forecast that the Retirement fund would be exhausted in 2033. The DI drain (and other negative revisions by CBO) will bring the End Date to below 2030 in the upcoming SS report to Congress. That would be a very significant development. CBO does not want to be the one who puts a new date "out there". To me, this was a cop-out by the CBO.
The timing of this story is interesting. The question in my mind is will the "fix" come before or after the bi-election. If Obama was a gambler, and he believed the Democrats could re-take the House in 2014, then he might defer action on DI until 2015. This scenario creates the opportunity for option #1, a tax on the rich to supplement DI. Of course that is gambling, and there would be a very small window of time to push through a new income tax to save DI. Then there is the Republicans. Do they want to push this before, or after 11/2014? I could argue both ways, but in the end, it gets back to the fact that no one wants to "do" anything with SS. It's better to do "nothing"; that makes #4 the most likely outcome. I hope that some of the big Defenders of SS pick up on the information from the CBO regarding the coming raid on the retirement fund. This is a huge constituency (60m beneficiaries - 150m contributors - every politician in the country - all of the Press). If that group catches on to what is about to happen to the retirement fund, there will be a great chorus of, "Don't you dare touch my money!" I'm trying to stir the pot on this one. I want DI's terminal condition to come onto the table sooner versus later. I'm hoping that if and when it does come up for discussion, it opens the door on the broader issue of what the hell America is doing with entitlements. Basically, I'm trying to pick a big fight. For the good of the country, wish me luck. OTHER READING:
According to Bloomberg,
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03-23-13 | THESIS | |
DEBT SLAVERY - The Magnitude of Debt that Entraps the System The Global Financial Pyramid Scheme By The Numbers 03-21-13 Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog via ZH Why is the global economy in so much trouble? How can so many people be so absolutely certain that the world financial system is going to crash? Well, the truth is that when you take a look at the cold, hard numbers it is not difficult to see why the global financial pyramid scheme is destined to fail. In the United States today, there is approximately 56 trillion dollars of total debt in our financial system, but there is only about 9 trillion dollars in our bank accounts. So you could take every single penny out of the banks, multiply it by six, and you still would not have enough money to pay off all of our debts. Overall, there is about 190 trillion dollars of total debt on the planet. But global GDP is only about 70 trillion dollars. And the total notional value of all derivatives around the globe is somewhere between 600 trillion and 1500 trillion dollars. So we have a gigantic problem on our hands. The global financial system is a very shaky house of cards that has been constructed on a foundation of debt, leverage and incredibly risky derivatives. We are living in the greatest financial bubble in world history, and it isn't going to take much to topple the entire thing. And when it falls, it is going to be the largest financial disaster in the history of the planet. The global financial system is more interconnected today than ever before, and a crisis at one major bank or in one area of the world can spread at lightning speed. As I wrote about yesterday, the entire European banking system is leveraged 26 to 1 at this point. A decline in asset values of just 4 percent would totally wipe out the equity of many of those banks, and once a financial panic begins we could potentially see major financial institutions start to go down like dominoes. We got a small taste of what that is like back in 2008, and it is inevitable that it will happen again. Anyone that would tell you that the current global financial system is sustainable does not know what they are talking about. Just look at the numbers that I have posted below. The following is the global financial pyramid scheme by the numbers... -$9,283,000,000,000 - The total amount of all bank deposits in the United States. The FDIC has just 25 billion dollars in the deposit insurance fund that is supposed to "guarantee" those deposits. In other words, the ratio of total bank deposits to insurance fund money is more than 371 to 1. -$10,012,800,000,000 - The total amount of mortgage debt in the United States. As you can see, you could take every penny out of every bank account in America and it still would not cover it. -$10,409,500,000,000 - The M2 money supply in the United States. This is probably the most commonly used measure of the total amount of money in the U.S. economy. -$15,094,000,000,000 - U.S. GDP. It is a measure of all economic activity in the United States for a single year. -$16,749,269,587,407.53 - The size of the U.S. national debt. It has grown by more than 10 trillion dollars over the past ten years. -$32,000,000,000,000 - The total amount of money that the global elite have stashed in offshore banks (that we know about). -$50,230,844,000,000 - The total amount of government debt in the world. -$56,280,790,000,000 - The total amount of debt (government, corporate, consumer, etc.) in the U.S. financial system. -$61,000,000,000,000 - The combined total assets of the 50 largest banks in the world. -$70,000,000,000,000 - The approximate size of total world GDP. -$190,000,000,000,000 - The approximate size of the total amount of debt in the entire world. It has nearly doubled in size over the past decade. -$212,525,587,000,000 - According to the U.S. government, this is the notional value of the derivatives that are being held by the top 25 banks in the United States. But those banks only have total assets of about 8.9 trillion dollars combined. In other words, the exposure of our largest banks to derivatives outweighs their total assets by a ratio of about 24 to 1. -$600,000,000,000,000 to $1,500,000,000,000,000 - The estimates of the total notional value of all global derivatives generally fall within this range. At the high end of the range, the ratio of derivatives to global GDP is more than 21 to 1. Are you starting to get the picture? Every single day, the total amount of debt will continue to grow faster than the total amount of money until the day that this bubble bursts. What we witnessed back in 2008 was just a little "hiccup" in the system. It caused the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, but global financial authorities were able to get things stabilized. Next time it won't be so easy. The next wave of the economic collapse is quickly approaching. A full-blown economic depression has already started in southern Europe. Unemployment is at record highs and economic activity is contracting rapidly. The major offshore banking centers in Cyprus are on the verge of collapsing. It was just announced that they will now be closed until Tuesday, but nobody really knows for sure when they will be allowed to reopen. And there is already talk that when they do reopen that there will be strict limits on how much money people can take out. And now the IMF is warning that the three biggest banks in Slovenia are failing and that a billion euros will be needed to bail them out. The dominoes are starting to tumble, and the United States won't be immune. In fact, the greatest financial problems that the United States has ever seen are on the horizon. But you can just have faith that Ben Bernanke, Barack Obama and the U.S. Congress know exactly what they are doing and will be able to save us from the coming financial collapse if you want. The mainstream media will provide you with all of the positive economic news that you could possibly want. They are giddy about the fact that the Dow keeps hitting all-time highs and they would have us all believe that we are in the midst of a robust economic recovery. You can listen to them if you want to. But when you are tempted to believe that everything is going to be "okay" somehow, just go back and look at the numbers there were posted above one more time. There is no way that the global financial pyramid scheme is going to be able to hold up for too much longer. At some point it is going to totally collapse. When that happens, will you be ready? |
03-22-13 | US MONETARY | |
FINANCIAL REPRESSION - Doesn't Fly When People Actually Know Beyond Financial Repression 03-17-13 FTAlphaville A couple of years back, when Carmen Reinhart and Belen Sbrancia updated the concept whereby governments might deal with a problematic mountain of debt by confiscating the savings of their subjects, the discussion was all about the subtle, sleight of hand solutions that might be employed.
Ordinary people, it seemed, could be financially repressed without realising they were in fact the victims. There was no discussion back then of outright expropriation or a “tax”, as insured (and uninsured) depositors at Cypriot banks are now being forced to bear. Joseph has a detailed discussion here of the peculiar circumstances that made a bailout of Cyprus particularly challenging.
Maybe ordinary Cypriots were always going to get it in the neck. Except that expropriation can never be straightforward in a democracy, where politicians must be seen to be vaguely fair if they are to retain power. It’s this point that seems to have been mis-read in Germany generally and amongst all members of the Troika, including the IMF’s Christine Lagarde, who might be regretting the boilerplate statement issued on her behalf on Saturday…
Appropriate allocation? Cypriots, to a man and woman, simply do not agree. And when the ECB was busy last week threatening President Anastasiades with an immediate disorderly default if his government did not sign up to this shotgun bail-in, they seem to have overlooked the fact that Anastasiades has to get this all voted through. Here’s what the Cypriot parliament currently looks like on the issue, courtesy of Alex White at JP Morgan: EARLIER POSITIONS
Cyprus Parliament Rejects European Bailout Proposal: Calls Germany's Bluff 36 Votes Against - 19 Abstentions Presumably, the prospect of actually running out of cash will encourage ordinary Cypriot to accept the inevitable. The reality here is financial incarceration. A Cypriot Precedent series
In the early hours of Saturday 16 March 2013, a deal was reached to 'tax' both uninsured *and insured* depositors as part of the Cyprus bailout. We cover the consequences.
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Cyprus Banking Crisis for Dummies 03-18-13 WashingtonsBlog Ground Zero of Financial RepressionYou’ve heard that the tiny European country Cyprus is threatening to grab between 3 and 13% of bank depositors’ funds in return for a bailout of the country by the European Union. Zero Hedge reports that Germany’s Finance Minister and the IMF originally demanded that 40% of bank deposits be looted. Sajiyat Das notes:
Many commentators note that the deposit grab may cause panic among bank depositors in Spain and other vulnerable countries as well. Indeed, many are asking whether this could be a modern Creditanstalt situation. Another common analogy is that this could be “worse than Lehman” failing. On the other hand – given that the entire economy of Cyprus is smaller than that of Shreveport, Louisiana, and that Cyprus is mainly a parking spot for hot money from Russian oligarchs and mafia – some say that the whole crisis will quickly blow over. What’s the bigger picture? Bank deposit grabs may spread to other vulnerable European countries. The New York Times reports:
And the chief economist of the German Commerzbank has called for private savings accounts in Italy to be similarly plundered:
Indeed, Zero Hedge has been warning about this kind of scenario for years. Why are they doing it? The Financial Times notes:
Yves Smith explains that the real reason for the EU’s grab for deposits from Cyprus bank accounts is that it is easier to screw the little guy than to screw sophisticated investors:
No wonder this cartoon – showing the EU forcing the Cypriot bankers to rob their depositors – is going viral in Cyprus (the caption just says “bank robbery of the Cypriot people): Indeed, it’s not the “great recession” … it’s the great bank robbery. (Too bad Cyprus didn’t choose the right fork in the road.) As Tyler Durden notes, the Cypriot deposit grab is just one of a wide variety of forms of financial repression that central banks, big private banks and governments are using to grab money from the people. For example, negative interest rates are an ongoing theft. Sajiyat Das writes:
As we’ve previously noted,
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03-20-13 | THESIS | FINANCIAL REPRESSION
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2011 - BEGGAR-THY-NEIGHBOR -- CURRENCY WARS |
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2010 - EXTEN D & PRETEND |
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CRONY CAPITALISM - From the Mouth of Fed President Richard Fisher Fed President: Too Big Banks Are Just Crony Capitalists 03-18-13 Washington's Blog
Big Banks Destroy Real American Style CapitalismReuters notes that the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – Richard Fisher - said yesterday:
He’s right. The top economists, financial experts, and bankers say the big banks need to be broken up in order to save the economy. Why? Gee … I don’t know. Modern American conservatives and liberals both passionately hate crony capitalism – the malignant symbiotic relationship between governmental leaders and their cronies. The Boston Tea Party in 1773 was largely a protest against crony capitalism. And it’s not just Western governments which fall prey to crony capitalism. (For example, Egypt’s Mubarak family raked in between U.S. $40 and $70 billion dollars through cronyism.) Indeed, people all over the world are starting to demand an end to crony corruption. As Reuters global editor at large Chrystia Freeland noted, the “Arab Spring” and other protests around the world are really protests against crony capitalism:
Note: Don’t get confused by the word “capitalism” in the phrase “crony capitalism”. Crony capitalism is not at all free market capitalism. Instead, it is actually the same thing as fascism, communist style socialism, kleptocracy, oligarchy or banana republic style corruption |
03-19-13 | THEME | CRONY CAPITALISM |
CRONY CAPITALISM - Bank Corruption Summary Jaw-Dropping Crimes of the Big Banks 03-14-13 Washington's Blog Preface: Not all banks are criminal enterprises. The wrongdoing of a particular bank cannot be attributed to other banks without proof. But – as documented below – many of the biggest banks have engaged in unimaginably bad behavior. You Won’t Believe What They’ve Done …Here are just some of the improprieties by big banks:
The executives of the big banks invariably pretend that the hanky-panky was only committed by a couple of low-level rogue employees. But studies show that most of the fraud is committed by management. Indeed, one of the world’s top fraud experts – professor of law and economics, and former senior S&L regulator Bill Black – says that most financial fraud is “control fraud”, where the people who own the banks are the ones who implement systemic fraud. See this, this and this. Even the bank with the reputation as being the “best managed bank” in the U.S., JP Morgan, has engaged in massive fraud. For example, the Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations released a report today quoting an examiner at the Office of Comptroller of the Currency – JPMorgan’s regulator – saying he felt the bank had “lied to” and “deceived” the agency over the question of whether the bank had mismarked its books to hide the extent of losses. And Joshua Rosner – noted bond analyst, and Managing Director at independent research consultancy Graham Fisher & Co – notes that JP Morgan had many similar anti money laundering laws violations as HSBC, failed to segregate accounts a la MF Global, and paid almost 12% of its 2009-12 net income on regulatory and legal settlements. But at least the big banks do good things for society, like loaning money to Main Street, right? Actually:
We can almost understand why Thomas Jefferson warned:
John Adams said:
And Lord Acton argued:
No wonder a stunning list of prominent economists, financial experts and bankers say we need to break up the big banks. |
03-19-13 | THEME | CRONY CAPITALISM |
CRONY CAPITALISM - Understanding Cyprus Top Banking Analyst: Subsidies to Giant Banks Exceed $780 Billion Dollars Per YEAR 03-13-13 Washingtons Blog Trillions In Subsidies to the Giant Banks Are Continuing to This Day
Preface: Bloomberg’s recent estimate that the big banks are subsidized to the tune of $83 billion dollars per year created tremendous controversy. But – as shown below – the real number is many times larger. Chris Whalen is one of America’s top banking analysts. Well-known economist Nouriel Roubini notes:
Whalen notes today that the big American banks get a subsidy in excess of $780 billion dollars per year. Specifically, Whalen estimates the following types of subsidies to the giant banks:
That totals $780 billion per year. But Whalen notes that there are many other subsidies as well:
The bailouts of the big banks amount to trillions of dollars, are never-ending … and continue to this day. (Indeed, the government is arguably paying trillions of dollars more in unnecessary interest payments just to have the banks “create” money, instead of creating it itself … as the Founding Fathers may have envisioned.) Whalen notes that the big banks are not really profitable:
Indeed, they are government sponsored enterprises where all of the profits are privatized, and all of the losses socialized. And the big banks are not helping – but are rather destroying – the economy. Indeed, failing to break up the big banks – and the malignant, symbiotic relationship between D.C. politicians and the banking giants – is destroying our country. |
03-18-13 | THEMES | CRONY CAPITALISM |
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SOCIAL UNREST |
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