NEW SERIES RELEASE MONETARY MALPRACTICE AVAILABLE NOW MONETARY MALPRACTICE: Deceptions, Distortions and Delusions MONETARY MALPRACTICE: Moral Malady MONETARY MALPRACTICE: Dysfunctional Markets
NOW SHOWING HELD OVER Currency Wars Euro Experiment Sultans of Swap Extend & Pretend Preserve & Protect Innovation Showings Below
FREE COPY... Current Thesis Advisory: CONTACT US
|
Wed. Apr. 3rd , 2013 |
![]() SPECIAL INTERVIEW GORDON T LONG at The FINANCIAL SURVIVAL NETWORK Tuesday 04-02-13
What Are Tipping Poinits? |
![]()
Reading the right books? >> Click to Browse << We have analyzed & included Book Review- Five Thumbs Up
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
"BEST OF THE WEEK " |
Posting Date |
Labels & Tags | TIPPING POINT or 2013 THESIS THEME |
HOTTEST TIPPING POINTS |
Theme Groupings |
||
![]() |
|||
MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES TODAY | |||
EARNINGS - Elevated Negative Pre-Announcements You Know The Market's Euphoric When... 04-02-13 Zero Hedge We noted last night the 'six charts' that represent the sum total of the hopefulness of these markets with relation to fundamental earnings but it is the ratio of negative to positive earnings guidance - which stands at a record high - that should worry investors the most (and doesn't). As the WSJ notes, in the last bull market, the negative corporate guidance ratio hit a peak of 2.38 in the third quarter of 2007 - just as that bull market was ending (and troughed at 0.97 right as the bottom was in in stocks in Q1 2009). The current 3.55 ratio is the highest on record. But what is more representative of the market's absolutely sanguine nature is that just 2 days after guiding earnings down, stock prices are down just 0.3% (and half the stocks actually rose). As the WSJ concludes, and we tend to agree, watch out. There may be a nasty drop on the other side of this wall. |
04-03-13 | PATTERNS | ANALYTICS |
EARNINGS - Investors Ignore Negative Pre-Announcements Investors Ignore Negativity at Their Peril 04-01-13 WSJ As the first quarter drew to a close, 86 companies in the S&P 500 issued negative guidance for what they expect to report in earnings for that period. Just 24 issued positive guidance. At 3.58 negative updates for every positive one, that is by far the highest ratio since FactSet began tracking such data in 2006. A look at consensus earnings-per-share expectations for the companies with the 10 highest weightings in the S&P 500—making up close to a fifth of the total—shows a similar pattern. Relative to where forecasts stood at the start of the year, they have fallen for seven and risen for three. Ignore corporate worrywarts at your peril. In the last bull market, the negative corporate guidance ratio hit a peak of 2.38 in the third quarter of 2007—just as that bull market was ending. Meanwhile, one of the lowest ratios of negative guidance, 0.97, came during the second quarter of 2009, when many analysts and investors still were very pessimistic and stocks hit a 13-year low. Investors' reaction to recent guidance shows they may be too sanguine. FactSet notes that the average stock-price change from two days before to two days after the announcement of negative guidance has been a drop of just 0.3% this quarter. About half of the stocks involved actually rose. Conversely, companies issuing positive guidance had larger-than-typical gains on average, although this figure was pulled higher by Netflix, which rallied by two-thirds
|
04-03-13 | PATTERNS | ANALYTICS |
TOTAL RETURNS - US & Japan the Only Positives Best And Worst Performing Assets In 2013 04-03-13 Deutsche Bank via ZH A rather skewed distribution in asset returns Year to Date (through March 31), with the winners so far i) the Nikkei, in both JPY and USD terms, on endless jawboning out of the Japanese political apparatus that it may do virtually anything - although in a few hours we will see just what the BOJ actually will do, the S&P on the $85 billion in monthly liquidity injections, and finally the FTSE on expectations the arrival of yet another Goldman central planner will unleash yet another epic episode of monetization in July, just as the Japan effect is fading. The losers: pretty much everyone else. (BitCoin was not included in the sample). |
04-03-13 | PATTERNS | ANALYTICS |
ANALYTICS - Weakness Below the Headline Numbers Underneath The Surface, People Are Seeing Signs That The Stock Market Is Breaking Down 04-03-13 BI Miller Tabak Chief Technical Market Analyst Jonathan Krinsky says "the cracks in the market appear to be growing, with the small-caps and transports severely underperforming." Doug Kass says the same thing today, pointing to "subsurface weakness" in the market. Here are a few points Kass highlights in his note:
"It is an unusual market feature when defensive stocks are among the leading groups in a market moving to new highs," says Kass. On the other hand, Phoenix Partners Group Chief Equities Strategist Michael Block doesn't think these signals are necessarily anything to worry about. "As for the argument that defensives have led, my advice is to think about what quant factors might be leading those stocks higher here," says Block. "There are style, size, and fundamental factors there that are likely the cause... and it has nothing to do with them being hiding places." Block points out that Russell 2000 outperformance is still trending up despite recent weakness, and that he considers these technical factors "an early warning sign and nothing to jump in against with both feet." |
04-03-13 | ANALYTICS RISK |
ANALYTICS |
ANALYTICS - Weakness Below the Headline Numbers - 2 There's A Rotation Underway Out Of Small-Cap Stocks That Could Be Bad News For Everyone 04-01-13 BI Small-cap stocks have been lagging the market recently. Miller Tabak's Jonathan Krinsky brings this to clients' attention today, writing, "Generally, when the small-caps show relative weakness vs. the large caps, it is a sign that investors are moving out of the riskier/high-beta names and into the 'relative safety' of the large/mega-caps." Perhaps the best way to see this rotation out of small-caps and into large-caps is by charting the ratio of the Russell 2000 (a small-cap index) to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (an index of large-caps). When the ratio goes down, investors are moving into bigger, safer names. That's what is happening right now. Krinsky points out that this ratio peaked in February 2012, before the S&P 500 ultimately peaked in early April, as shown by the arrows in the chart below.
The chart also shows that the Russell 2000/DJIA ratio has peaked again and appears to be headed lower. "This is by no means a guarantee of a market top of course," says Krinsky. "We saw this ratio plunge from July to August 2012, even as the S&P grinded higher." This time, it might be saying something prescient, though, given the fact that the market rally hasn't really faced a major test yet. "When put in context, however, and combined with many of the other factors we have been highlighting, it should certainly be given some consideration," says Krinsky. |
04-03-13 | ANALYTICS RISK |
ANALYTICS |
SENTIMENT - Contrarian Indicator Suggests Upside Potential Sell Side Consensus Indicator Still Extremely Bearish 04-01-13 Barry Ritholtz |
04-03-13 | SENTIMENT | ANALYTICS |
CANARIES - Rosenberg Sees Signs of Overbought Market ROSENBERG: I See 10 Signs That Show The Stock Market Is Overbought 04-01-13 Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg via BI In a new note, Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg that it is "exciting" to see the S&P 500 hit an all-time high, but that "beneath the veneer, some signs of 'nonratification' or at least 'overbought' readings are starting to take hold." He offers 10 reasons:
|
04-03-13 | RISK | ANALYTICS |
CANARIES - Market Risk Ten Things That Could Wreck the Bull Market 03-30-13 247WallStreet.co, The markets closed out the first quarter of 2013 with a big rally and the bulls seem to remain in charge. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is up more than 11% and the S&P 500 is up 10% so far in 2013, and they are both at all-time closing highs. We recently gave our synopsis showing the road map for the bull market to continue in April, but we also want to be open to the obvious and less obvious risks. Unfortunately for the market bulls, there are two sides to a coin. 24/7 Wall St. wants to cover the other side of the bull market coin. The saying goes, “Bull markets often crawl up a wall of worry.” Here are 10 serious considerations that those of us who remain bullish on stocks need to keep in the back of our minds. We have looked at the year-to-date changes for much of the analysis, and historical data or color has been added elsewhere. 1. The Ticker Tape and Market Internals: For starters, when markets hit all-time highs, the ticker tape and market internals come into focus. The S&P 500 took more than two weeks of challenging the all-time high before closing above it, even though the DJIA already had broken out. In fact, it looks like the S&P was within 10 points of the all-time closing high for almost three weeks before punching through. Some may question that the ticker tape is not as strong as you might expect. DJIA stocks are up year-to-date by a ratio of 14:1, but the S&P ratio is close to 7:1 year-to-date. Capital inflows into stocks have been monumental, but they seem to have slowed. Even with the normal bump at the end of a month and start of a month from 401K monies, what if that starts to peter out? It takes money to make money, and it actually does require inflows to keep driving up stock prices. What if the “sell in May and go away” theme comes early this year? 2. The European Follies: That darned European situation just refuses to go away. First it was all the woes of the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain). But in 2013 suddenly Cyprus matters. This inconsequential island nation is just not very relative. Outside of being an offshore banking mecca and a tourist destination, and having a British naval base, this nation should have no importance at all. Unfortunately, that is now the world we live in. Imagine if Spain, Italy, Portugal or Greece were suddenly back in the soup. They at least matter compared to Cyprus. A Dow Jones headline caught our attention: Greek Retail Sales Plunge 15.7% as Country Enters Sixth Year of Recession. Any new spike higher in interest rates around the PIIGS, or any other unwelcome growing anti-austerity measures, could tip Europe again. If Europe unexpectedly gets far worse again all of a sudden, kiss our great U.S. bull market bye-bye. 3. Employment and Economic Reversals: What if the employment data really does get wrecked by the spending sequestration? This is a low probability because sequestration was really just cutting the growth of spending rather than cutting actual spending. But what if employment just reverses again? The validity of the 7.7% unemployment rate from February can be debated, but that was still the best reading in four years. What if companies just start laying workers off or have furloughs for, say, the entire slow summer period? It seems unlikely, but it is possible. The equity markets would not respond positively if the official unemployment rate gets back up around 8%. 4. QE-Exhaustion: Ben Bernanke and friends are printing up more money than you can fathom. The bond buying alone is $85 billion or so per month in the United States. Throw in whatever the Japanese are doing now to end their two-decade period of no inflation and no growth. What if the funny-money stimulus measures start to end or taper off? This is not expected, but you cannot imagine that the central bankers really will live up to their promise of signaling when the end or tapering will come about. Bernanke likely will not say, “Soon, soon, getting closer, getting much closer, almost there, really almost there, OK NOW!” The market has many theories about how global quantitative easing will end. No one really knows, but if not handled properly it could be shocking. 5. International Bad Boys: The United States and the developed world have two serious bona fide financial enemies. A nuclear Iran is something that no one wants. What happens when the world wakes up to the headline “Iran Successfully Tests First Nuclear Bomb” one day? Then there is North Korea. The new leader, Kim Jong Un, has just stepped up his saber-rattling with more nuclear threats. They cannot afford to give their citizens enough food, but they can still threaten to use their nukes. Iran and North Korea remain risks, and they are likely secular risks. And what about America’s other nemesis? Al Qaeda and other offshoot terrorist groups are still a threat. We will no given them any ideas to consider, but neither will we ever forget them as a risk. 6. Bank and Financial Regulation: Investors still want to talk up bank stocks. Meredith Whitney says Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) will hit $15 and Dick Bove says it will hit $30. But what about the Dodd-Frank implementation and the Volcker Rule? What if the banks really do have to stop trading in the financial markets? There are trillions upon trillions of dollars of over-the-counter derivatives still outstanding that would have to be unwound. Maybe the regulation is more ruse and threat than real, but this remains a risk. Congressman Peter Defazio is out with yet another trading tax as well. What if that socialist effort takes on more steam this time around because Defazio became less stupid by proposing a watered down tax effort this time? It seems unlikely, but that is another risk to the banks. 7. Earnings Season: What if earnings season starts out poorly? Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) kicks off earnings season, and it may be very short of “with a bang” this April. Alcoa is down 1.5% so far in 2013, while the S&P 500 is up 10%. How great are its earnings expected to be? Many other companies may report what are very choppy earnings in the first quarter. All of those preparations for the fiscal cliff had some lingering effect in the business world, even if the stock market discounted it. Then there was sequestration of the federal budget, which may still have some impact even if it is the cutting of spending growth versus actual spending cuts. See below about the dollar, but currencies could alter guidance negatively as well. Many companies could have very choppy earnings. Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) was a disappointment that the market was not braced for. What if there are more of the major DJIA and S&P 500 stocks that have unexpected negative news lurking? 8. King Dollar: U.S. companies hate when the U.S. dollar strengthens too much. Japan decided that Johannes Gutenberg’s Bible-printing efforts could be applied to the yen. The demise of the yen has taken it from about 78 yen/dollar in October up to 96 before settling in at about 94 for the end of March. The Europeans just cannot keep things marching smoothly for more than a month or two at a time it seems. In January the euro rose to above $1.36, but now it is closer to $1.28, and the chart still points as though $1.25 or even $1.20 are possible. A strong dollar hurts American companies wanting to export goods and services because it makes our goods more expensive. That ties into earnings above, but watch for companies to start complaining about currency again. 9. Buzzkill of Apple and Facebook: Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has gone from the darling of Wall St. to the ugliest pig in a prom dress. After the monumental rise that led it to be the largest company by market cap, Apple is now down 37% from its peak and is about 16% lower year-to-date. The Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) IPO also was a total disaster, and the stock is down 45% from the peak of the IPO. After an initial trick into thinking that Facebook’s stock was back, its guile and charm quickly turned into deceit. Facebook shares are down more than 21% from the highs in January, and the stock’s recent weakness has it close to a 2013 low, and shares are now down almost 4% so far this year. Both of these investments could keep pushing the so-called millennials even further away from ever wanting to buy stocks. These may seem like outliers, but psychological damage can take many years to recover from. 10. The Wild Card(s): The last thing that can come up and wreck the great bull market is simply the unknown. We have argued for quite some time now that the markets have lost their ability to predict and price in events. So whatever the next trouble is, the market may not even know about it. Financier and billionaire George Soros once wrote, “Contrary to the tenets of market fundamentalism, financial markets do not tend towards equilibrium; they are crisis prone.” OK, so now you have 10 real-life issues or risks that are threats to the bull market to consider. The charts are signaling that the bull market likely is not dead. The fundamentals look better than they did a quarter ago as well. But history has taught us over and over that the tide can change suddenly. There are probably 20 other serious risks that investors have to consider on top of this. We just wanted to offer some of our top concerns as you try to navigate the current bull market. There are two sides to a coin, and we wouldn’t want you thinking we only have pom-poms for cheering those bulls three months before the festival in Pamplona begins. |
PATTERNS | ANALYTICS |
ANALYTICS |
PATTERNS - Long Cycles Long Cycles 04-02-13 Ed Carlson via Safehaven Chances are you have seen a long-term chart of the Dow annotated as the chart below has been. The red hash marks designate secular bull and bear markets. But if you look closely, you may notice one significant difference from similar charts; the first secular market begins in 1921 and not in 1932 as is often shown. Why the low in 1921? Why is the secondary low of March 2003 used and not the nominal low in October 2002? The dates shown on this chart are the lows of, what George Lindsay called, the Long Cycle and were found using very specific, rules-based methods devised by him. These rules are explained in the book An Aid to Timing. I recently took a moment to count the exact length of these long-cycles. Although Lindsay devised these methods using data he had collected back to 1798, he wrote the original An Aid to Timing in 1950 so he wasn't able to do perform this exercise for our "modern" market. Review the table below and notice how similar the four cycles are in duration. Regardless of the time period chosen, the long cycle which began in 2003 is not expected to bottom until 2023. This should eliminate any question of whether the Dow began a new secular bull market at the low in March 2009.
|
04-03-13 | PATTERNS | ANALYTICS |
MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - Mar. 31st - Apr 6th 2013 | |||
RISK REVERSAL | 1 | ||
JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION | 2 | ||
BOND BUBBLE | 3 | ||
EU BANKING CRISIS |
4 |
||
EU - Policy Shift Threatens the View of Bank Deposits Bail-In Blues: Luxembourg Warns of Investor Flight from Europe 03-29-13 der Spiegel The debate over this week's "bail in" of bank account holders in Cyprus as part of the country's debt crisis bailout is continuing to simmer in Europe. In Luxembourg, Finance Minister Luc Frieden has warned that the example set in Cyprus by taxing people holding €100,000 ($129,000) or more in their accounts could drive investors out of Europe. "This will lead to a situation in which investors invest their money outside the euro zone," he told SPIEGEL. "In this difficult situation, we need to avoid anything that will lead to instability and destroy the trust of savers."
Earlier this week, Euro Group President Jeroen Dijsselbloem sparked an enormous controversy after stating that the solution found in Cyprus could be applied throughout the euro zone in the future. The remark triggered immediate criticism from his predecessor as head of the Euro Group, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker. "It disturbs me when the way in which they tried to resolve the Cyprus problem is held up as a blueprint for future rescue plans," Juncker told German public broadcaster ZDF earlier this week. "It's no blueprint. We should not give the impression that future savings deposits in Europe might not be secure. We should not give the impression that investors should not keep their money in Europe. This harms Europe's entire financial center." But in the European Parliament, politicians are considering ways to make banks bear greater responsibility for their own financial problems. Lawmakers are considering the European Commission's proposed banking resolution legislation for faltering financial institutions. The discussion includes the possibility of future compulsory levies on major depositors, although it is more focused on placing greater responsibility for risks on other investors in banks. "We want to clearly strengthen the position of deposit customers," said Swedish European Parliament member Gunnar Hökmark. Under the proposal, deposits of up to €100,000 would be excluded from any loss participation at a bank. Any deposits over that amount would only get hit if the losses couldn't be fully covered through a bank's shareholders and other creditors. 'Societal and Political Acceptance Is Ending' The EU currently guarantees all deposits under €100,000, but this policy was called into question two weeks ago after the finance ministers of the euro zone decided to make small-scale savers contribute to the bailout of the Cypriot banking sector. Ultimately, Cyprus issued a one-time levy only against depositors with €100,000 or more in their accounts, the first time that personal bank accounts have been hit in Europe as part of a formal bailout package. Under current EU policy, private creditors will not be required to cover banking imbalances until 2018. But in Germany, Andreas Dombret, a board member of the Bundesbank, the country's central bank, would like to implement the new rules much sooner, by 2015. And Carsten Schneider, the budget policy expert for the opposition center-left Social Democrats, says he believes the rules for winding down banks should be implemented as soon as 2014. "Societal and political acceptance is ending for the model of bank rescues in which the state protects bond holders and major investors," said Schneider. dsl/SPIEGEL |
04-01-13 | EU MONETARY |
4- EU Banking Crisis |
THE CYPRUS IMPACT - Crumbling EU Foundation Principles The Seven Broken Taboos Of The Cyprus Deal 03-31-13 Barclays via ZH The euro’s core founding principles, based on the Maastricht Treaty’s:
According to Barclays: From a European perspective, the list of broken taboos and assumptions continues to grow. It includes:
The euro will never be the same again; its preservation now depends urgently upon economic recovery. Without the delivery of economic growth, unemployment will rise to yet higher post-war record levels, and the widespread and growing disillusionment felt by EU citizens towards their economic regime will threaten to spill over into more explicit questioning of the euro’s suitability. |
04-01-13 | EU | 4- EU Banking Crisis |
SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS [Euope Crisis Tracker] | 5 | ||
CHINA BUBBLE | 6 | ||
GLOBAL GROWTH - Slowdown Starting to Accelerate Global Economic Slowdown Accelerates Again 04-01-13 Goldman Sachs via ZH It would appear that between the historical revisions of over-optimistic initial prints in macro data in the last few months and the reality of the weakness in Europe; the global economy is in Slowdown. Goldman's Swirlogram has now seen its Global Leading Indicator in the 'slowdown' phase for two months as momentum fades rapidly and seven of the ten major factors in the index declining with Global (Aggregate) PMI, and Global New Orders-less-Inventories worsening. Quite comically, the three factors providing some positivity are the Baltic Dry Index (which we are told is irrelevant when it drops), Japanese Inventory/Sales (which improved but remains at depression-era levels), and US initial jobless claims (which have become a farce statistically from what we can tell). Of course, none of this macro reality matters for now - until it does that is. The red arrows show the relative size of adjustments from the initial estimates... and the last 3 days have seen the biggest drop in US macro data in 9 months... Charts: Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs |
04-02-13 | GLOBAL INDICATORS CYCLE GROWTH |
11 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate |
EU - The "CORE" Problem Europe Back To 19th Century Growth Rates 04-01-13 JP Morgan via ZH Long-term growth conditions in Spain, Italy and France are as weak as they have been (other than during wartime) in over a century. The chart below tells the story. As JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest notes, while European sovereign debt spreads have rallied across the board, European bank lending to households and businesses is still declining, and the cost of small business loans in Italy and Spain is higher than both real and nominal growth. With ECB policy now clearly useless given Europe's fragmentation, and with Germany's forward expectations rolling over, it is hard to see how, absent wholesale devaluation and/or inflation (or as Cembalest notes destruction & rebuilding), E
|
04-02-13 | EU INDICATORS CYCLE GROWTH |
11 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate |
SENTIMENT - Small Investors Edging Into Market Afraid to Miss Rally Mom and Pop Run With the Bulls 03-29-13 WSJ The market's record-breaking spree has raised a new fear in many American households—dread that they are missing out on big gains. When stock prices collapsed in 2008, the bear market wiped out half of the savings of Lucie White and her husband, both doctors in Houston. Feeling "sucker punched," she says, they swore off stocks and put their remaining money in a bank. This week, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor's 500-stock index pushed to record highs, Ms. White and her husband hired a financial adviser and took the plunge back into the market. "What really tipped our hand was to see our cash not doing anything while the S&P was going up," says Ms. White, a 39-year-old dermatologist in Houston. "We just didn't want to be left on the sidelines."
|
04-02-13- | SENTIMENT | 22 - Public Sentiment & Confidence |
TO TOP | |||
MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week | |||
GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
|||
US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
|||
CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES | |||
Market Analytics | |||
TECHNICALS & MARKET ANALYTICS |
|
||
RISK - Increasing Levels of Market Risk US Retail Investor - Do You Feel Lucky? 04-01-13 Doug Short dshort.com via ZH For all those calling for multiple expansion to save us from dismal earnings - take a look at this... |
04-02-13 | FUND- MENTALS PE |
ANALYTICS |
GOLD-DOW RATIO - A Secular Trend In the chart below, courtesy of Cambridge House, we ask readers: in which period was there a more stable relationship between tangible and intangible values, and a less exuberant irrationality vis-a-vis that which is purely based on confidence, if not so much reality. A second logical follow up question is: where is this ratio of intangible to tangible value going next? The chart below attempts to provide some log-based perspective on precisely this. |
04-02-13- | GOLD | ANALYTICS |
FALLING BEHIND - Here is Why |
04-01-13 | US INDICATORS CATALYSTS DI |
US ECONOMICS |
COMMODITY CORNER - HARD ASSETS | |||
THESIS Themes | |||
2013 - STATISM |
|||
INSIDEOUS INVOLVEMENT - Stealth Capture of Controlling Financial Repression Information All U.S. Intelligence Agencies – Including CIA and NSA – to Spy On Americans’ Finances 03-14-13 Washingtonsblog.com Government to Spy On Everyone Who Banks In the U.S.Reuters notes:
The excuse given for this intrusion on privacy? As with the destruction of all of our privacies and other liberties, the excuse given is terrorism. Indeed, given that the government claims the right to assassinate or indefinitely detain Americans without any due process of law, do you think government employees will hesitate in seizing the assets of Americans labels as “enemies?” The government has done it before, and President Obama authorized seizure of property again last year. And the government’s take-down of Megaupload was an exercise of the power to seize all of the legal property held in a storage facility because a handful of crooks have illegal property in theirs. |
04-02-13 | THESIS | |
The Puppet Master: Government 03-31-13 Bill Buckler, author of The Privateer via ZH The Puppet Master - Government It has been well and often said that only two types of “paper” money have ever existed in history - those that are already worthless and those that are going to be. Eventually, the physical pieces of paper or plastic which have been given a function as a medium of exchange by government order may remain - but their purchasing power on the market does not. The transition point always comes when the “promises to pay” on which the fiat money depends are exposed beyond the possibility of denial to be the LIES which they always were. History is replete with examples, yet very few ask the obvious question: “Pay? - WITH WHAT??” One of the great wonders of the twentieth century was the lengths to which the economics “profession” proved willing to go to avoid even facing that question let alone trying to answer it. For hundreds if not thousands of years of human history, the vast majority were all too well aware that the government “lives” on the backs of the people. Today, that long-held knowledge has been astonishingly successfully reversed. Today, the perceived “wisdom” is that the people live on the back of the government. In the realm of the history of ideas, it took many centuries to bring forward the idea that a life might be lived without constant kowtowing to government. It has only taken one century - the time since WW I - to all but totally submerge that legacy in a new wave of government dependency. The old and tired phrase - “I’m from the government and I’m here to help you” - is met by as much derision as it has ever been when people bemoan the impositions of their rulers. But those same people rely on the government to insulate them from the consequences of any action they may choose to undertake. There are people who love government, people who hate it, and people who fear it. But when the chips are down, the majority of those same people profess to have “confidence” in the government’s power to protect their “welfare”. Governments count on that confidence” above all other things. Short On Credit And Long On Faith The ignorance over the mechanisms and procedures which power the modern global financial and monetary system is fiercely held. When it comes to the general public, we have seen demonstrations of that on numerous occasions over the past few years, the latest being in Cyprus. As was the case in all previous like instances in other nations in Europe and elsewhere, very few of those demonstrating in the street have ever thought about the TRUE nature of the banks, central banks and governments in which they place their “trust”. Many reports on the anger of the Cypriots have talked about the end of the “age of innocence”. Unfortunately, the term innocence is not defined as the fierce refusal to see what is right in front of one’s face. At the end of his great work, Human Action, Ludwig von Mises dealt with the real problem like this:
Human Action was published in 1949. The problems which von Mises so brilliantly dissected then are incomparably worse now. But the main failing remains the same. Those who refuse to gain the knowledge necessary to stand for something will fall for anything. The result in Cyprus is the latest in a long line of similar cases. To give one example, how many of the “Occupy Wall Street” crowd could give a cogent explanation of what they were protesting against? The specific instances may differ, but the reaction remains the same: “But ... BUT ... YOU TOLD US IT WAS ‘SAFE’!!” What makes it worse is that most knew that it was NOT ‘safe’ - but they refused to admit it to themselves. |
04-01-13 | THESIS | |
2012 - FINANCIAL REPRESSION |
|||
2011 - BEGGAR-THY-NEIGHBOR -- CURRENCY WARS |
|||
2010 - EXTEN D & PRETEND |
|||
THEMES | |||
CORPORATOCRACY - CRONY CAPITALSIM | |||
GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE | |||
SOCIAL UNREST |
|||
CENTRAL PLANNING |
|||
STANDARD OF LIVING |
|||
NATURE OF WORK | |||
CATALYSTS - FEAR & GREED | |||
TO TOP | |||
|
Tipping Points Life Cycle - Explained
Click on image to enlarge
TO TOP
![]() |
YOUR SOURCE FOR THE LATEST THINKING & RESEARCH
|
TO TOP
FAIR USE NOTICE This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.
If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. DISCLOSURE Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments. COPYRIGHT © Copyright 2010-2011 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him
|