NEW SERIES RELEASE MONETARY MALPRACTICE AVAILABLE NOW MONETARY MALPRACTICE: Deceptions, Distortions and Delusions MONETARY MALPRACTICE: Moral Malady MONETARY MALPRACTICE: Dysfunctional Markets
NOW SHOWING HELD OVER Currency Wars Euro Experiment Sultans of Swap Extend & Pretend Preserve & Protect Innovation Showings Below
FREE COPY... Current Thesis Advisory: CONTACT US
|
Fri. Apr. 26th , 2013 |
![]() What's Happening With GOLD? Tuesday 04-23-13
What Are Tipping Poinits? |
![]()
Reading the right books? >> Click to Browse << We have analyzed & included Book Review- Five Thumbs Up
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
"BEST OF THE WEEK " |
Posting Date |
Labels & Tags | TIPPING POINT or 2013 THESIS THEME |
HOTTEST TIPPING POINTS |
Theme Groupings |
||
![]() |
|||
MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES TODAY | |||
GLOBAL SLOWDOWN UNDERWAY - A Strong Falloff! The Global Economic Slowdown Has Arrived Right On Schedule 04-24-13 Markit via BI The "spring slowdown" is here again. As discussed earlier (see post), the previous three years saw a strong start in the US, followed by a slowdown in economic activity, particularly in manufacturing
USAGERMANYWhat's especially troubling this year is that we are also seeing a corresponding slowdown in other major economies that were thought to be in good shape, namely Germany ... CHINAUST - US TREASURY TRENDTreasury yields declined to the lowest level this year in response. This move reflects the bet that given the soft patch in the economy, the Fed will continue buying government paper for some time to come.
|
04-26-13 | GLOBAL INDICATORS CYCLE GROWTH |
11 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate |
INTEREST RATES - A Long Term Secular Decline An Annotated History Of The 10-Year US Treasury Note Since 1790 04-23-13 Goldman Sachs via BI In a new report, the analysts at Goldman Sachs wrestle with the idea that the U.S. might be in a bond bubble. For some context, they include this great annotated chart tracking the fluctuations of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note since 1790. |
04-26-13 | US ANALYTICS BONDS YIELDS UST |
ANALYTICS |
FOOD STAMPS - 47.8 Million or 15% of Americans on Food Stamps Use of Food Stamps Swells 03-27-13 WSJ The financial crisis is over and the recession ended in 2009. But one of the federal government's biggest social welfare programs, which expanded when the economy convulsed, isn't shrinking back alongside the recovery. Enrollment in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, as the modern-day food-stamp benefit is known,
The biggest factor behind the upward march of food stamps is
But there is another driver, which has its origins in President Bill Clinton's 1996 welfare overhaul. In recent years, the law has enabled states to ease asset and income tests for would-be participants, with the encouragement of the Obama administration, allowing into the program people with relatively higher incomes as well as savings. The new rules were designed to encourage people to take advantage of the program before they became destitute. By expanding the pool of potential applicants, they are redrawing the landscape of government assistance. It is one reason why SNAP appears to have evolved from a program that rose and fell with the unemployment rate to a more permanent feature of the landscape. EXAMPLE
The food-stamp rolls have swollen since 2008 and are projected to stay that way for years. In 2008, SNAP enrollment was 28.2 million. Unemployment peaked in October 2009 at 10% and was at 7.7% as of February, but SNAP kept growing The Congressional Budget Office predicts unemployment will drop to 5.6% by 2017 but that SNAP enrollment will drop slightly to 43.3 million people, down 4.5 million from the current level. That makes it very different from the other big federal support program, unemployment insurance, which shrinks as the economy improves. Continued jobless claims dropped to 3.1 million in February after peaking at 6.6 million in May 2009. Kevin Concannon, undersecretary for food, nutrition and consumer services at the Department of Agriculture, said SNAP is working as designed, expanding to extend benefits to more Americans as poverty levels increase. He said USDA officials expect the program to soon begin contracting as the economy improves. "While the perception may be different, the actual raw numbers, almost 50 million people [under the federal poverty level], is certainly one of the principal reasons why we see the enrollment increases in the SNAP program," he said. A more aggressive effort to get people on the rolls and changes in the eligibility standards were also factors, he said. The government spent a record $74.6 billion on SNAP benefits last year, roughly equivalent to the combined budgets of the Department of Homeland Security, the Justice Department and the Department of the Interior. Roughly 45% of recipients are children. In 2007, the government spent $30.4 billion on the program. A version of the food-stamp program was used briefly in the 1930s and 1940s. It was made permanent in the 1960s to tackle poverty, part of an expansion of state and federal social welfare programs including Medicaid. By 1975, 8% of all Americans received government-paid food assistance. The level hovered between 8% and 11% until 2009. The financial crisis, coupled with the ensuing spike in poverty levels and a number of policy changes, pushed the program to unprecedented levels. Now, 15% of Americans are on SNAP. The average monthly benefit per person was $133 last year, which can be used to buy household staples such as cereal, meats, fruits and milk. For an able-bodied American without children, SNAP benefits are usually only offered for a few months. The federal government has waived these rules for most states in recent years because of high unemployment and will likely rescind the waivers when unemployment falls, program experts say. "Food stamps have actually saved my life, really," said Diane Hendricks, 43, who worked for 12 years at a human-resources agency before losing her job in 2009. She and her husband divorced last year, and she filed for SNAP to help buy groceries for her two children, ages 10 and 5. She now lives with a friend and receives $380 a month in SNAP. In late February, Ms. Hendricks began working 20 hours a week at a local food pantry, earning $10 an hour. She hopes to stop using SNAP in three months. "The benefits helped me get back on my feet," she said. "It was one less thing to worry about so I was able to look for work." Food stamps have proven polarizing in Washington, with proponents saying low-income Americans need this kind of taxpayer-funded assistance, and critics warning that programs foster dependence on government support. House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R., Wis.), the former GOP vice-presidential candidate, has proposed turning SNAP into a block-grant program that would give states more control over the program, likely leading to cuts. At a recent event hosted by The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Ryan said when it comes to anti-poverty programs, policy makers should be asking the questions: "Do we have an economic policy of social mobility, of upward mobility? Are we attacking poverty at the root causes, or are we simply merely treating the symptoms of poverty to make it, you know, easier to tolerate and therefore perpetuate?" In 2011, as the U.S. unemployment rate began to recede from its 2009 peak of 10%, the number of Americans living below the poverty line remained elevated as people burned through their savings and replaced full-time jobs with part-time work. As of 2011, some 48.5 million people were living in poverty, up from 37.3 million in 2007. But that growth only accounts for roughly half the change in SNAP enrollment. The newest factor in the program's growth, one that hasn't been tested in past boom-and-bust cycles, stems from policy changes that began almost two decades ago. The 1996 welfare overhaul, coupled with a rule change crafted four years later by the Clinton administration, allowed states to make it easier for residents to qualify for benefits. In 2001 and 2002, six states adopted rules that eased income and asset requirements for SNAP applicants, making it easier for someone to qualify for the program if they had a low-wage job or some savings. Previously, applicants could be disqualified if they had $5,000 in the bank, or earned slightly more than the poverty threshold. The goal was to help Americans with government aid before their savings were wiped out. Policy makers wanted to allow newly poor families, such as those where the breadwinner was temporarily unemployed, to have enough money to put gas in the cars and pay phone bills—two necessities for finding and retaining jobs. To qualify for this easier screening process, Americans had to do little more than prove their income levels were low enough to meet certain thresholds. The change didn't attract much attention until the financial crisis hit. After that, states began aggressively implementing the laxer standards, which allowed cash-strapped states to funnel more federal aid to their residents. The 2009 stimulus law further expanded the program, allowing people to keep the benefits longer than normal and boosting the total level of benefits that a recipient can receive. The expanded benefits expire Oct. 31. In 2009, with the encouragement of Obama administration officials, 17 states and U.S. territories eased their eligibility requirements, in some cases waiving any policy that restricted the assets a family could retain. "We believe that increasing the number of states that implement [eased] eligibility will benefit families hurt by the economic crisis, promote savings among low income households, and simplify state policies," Jessica Shahin, a top USDA official, wrote to other federal program overseers in 2009. "Please encourage your States to adopt [the looser rules] to improve SNAP operations in your States." Eleven more states eased rules in 2010. Today, 43 U.S. states and territories have such expanded eligibility policies. The White House estimates that reversing the eased standards would cause between two million and three million people to lose benefits. "We decided to adopt [easier] standards in order to prevent [people] from having to spend all of their life savings," said Richard Berry, a GOP-appointed director of the agency that screens applicants in Mississippi, where one out of every three children receive benefits. "We didn't want people to have to become destitute in order to get help." The resulting change in the program's structure has been profound. In 2006, 18.7% of SNAP households qualified through an easier screening process. In 2011, that number reached 65.8%. The change didn't mean the majority of SNAP beneficiaries had large savings accounts. Rather, it meant that states were no longer checking, according to state guidelines and program officials. The financial crisis hit North Carolina particularly hard, wiping out thousands of manufacturing and financial-sector jobs. The state's unemployment rate spiked from 4.6% in March 2007 to 11.3% in February 2010. It remained at 9.5% in January. The number of households seeking SNAP benefits in North Carolina also soared, averaging 785,072 in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, up 87% from 2008. The state broadened eligibility rules in 2010, waiving asset limits and allowing households to qualify if their gross income was as much as 200% of the federal poverty level, up from the 130% threshold that had been in place before. Under the change, a family of four with income of $3,842 a month would now qualify, compared with $2,498 previously. With more entering the program, social service groups began recommending it as an option for struggling families that previously hadn't applied. That is what happened to Basem Eljauni, a 55-year-old cashier at a Sam's Club in Greensboro, N.C., who lost his two businesses—a grocery store and a gas station—and his $250,000 in savings and investments. The father of six says he now makes around $1,000 a month if he is lucky and supplements his income with about $800 in government-paid food assistance and handouts from charities. "It's hard to see yourself stuck on food stamps," said Mr. Eljauni. "Amazing—I never thought I was going to be stuck in the system." Congress will have to revisit SNAP later this year when a bill authorizing USDA expenditures expires. Republicans have promised to push for changes, seeking new limits on who can receive benefits and ending the ability of states to ease asset and income limits. The Congressional Budget Office said reinstating eligibility limits would save around $4.5 billion over 10 years, a fraction of the program's total cost over that time. Budget experts believe the program will start contracting next year, but only slowly. It will depend, in part, on whether people like Ms. Myers, the Chicago receptionist, will shift off the program in the coming months, something she said hopes will happen. "I am always looking for a better job," she said. "I do not want to be on food stamps forever." |
04-25-13 | PUBLIC POLICY
INDICATORS CYCLE CONSUMPTION |
US ECONOMICS |
CURRENCY WARS - Australia Begins Shift The USD Reserve Exodus Continues - Australia Diversifies Reserves Into China 04-24-13 Zero Hedge As we have discussed numerous times over the past year, there is a quiet movement among the world's central banks to diversify their reserves away from the pejorative USD. Whether it is
.. there is a trend emerging. The latest defection, as BusinessWeek reports, is Australia's plan to invest about 5% of foreign currency reserves in China. The decision "represents the first time that the RBA will have invested directly in a sovereign bond market of an Asian country other than Japan," the country's deputy governor noted, adding that this step was an "important milestone" to "stronger financial linkages" leaving Australia "better positioned to benefit from the shift in global economic growth towards Asia." Of course, palling up to its closest trade partner is a big driver, but in a somewhat barbed comment on the strength of the AUD, Lowe noted, "quantitative easing that has taken place in a number of countries is having a significant effect on exchange rates of freely floating currencies... which is clearly making for difficult conditions in certain parts of the Australian economy."
|
04-26-13 | THESIS | |
BOSTON MARATHON - Opportunity to Exploit Potential Tools of Tyranny How The Boston Bombing Is Already Being Exploited To Introduce Tyranny 04-24-13 Brandon Smith of Alt-Market.com via ZH I have no personal experience in the business of false flag terrorism, but I imagine that engineering a successfully staged terror attack to be blamed on innocent or semi-innocent parties with the goal of psychologically manipulating a population requires that one also be an accomplished storyteller. It demands an avid imagination and an organized sense of foresight. And, most of all, it requires a consistency of narrative. Without consistency, the audience’s ability to suspend its disbelief is damaged, and they become disconnected from the fantasy being portrayed. If I were the “writer” behind the “story” of the Boston Marathon Bombing, I would consider my efforts an abject failure. The narrative of the event has changed multiple times in only a few days, following a hailstorm of conflicting observations from the government and the establishment-run media. The “villain” of the original plotline was clearly meant to be “rightwing extremism” as numerous mainstream talking heads, led by federal agency inferences, began repeating the “homegrown right wing terrorist” meme everywhere. This meme was partly abandoned after the alternative media and the Liberty Movement began its own investigation, revealing a large federal presence on the scene, including military Civil Support Teams often tied to the DHS and Northcom, as well as the witnesses who observed what on-scene officials called “training exercises” during the marathon. I have no doubt that these citizen investigations forced the establishment to change the direction of their crime tale, and use Plan B patsies instead. This, however, complicated the momentum of the fiction, and created even more questions. The Chechen brothers now implicated in the attack have been revealed as long time FBI contacts. This is a bit awkward for the FBI considering they asked the American public to help them “identify the suspects in on-scene photos” while they failed to mention that they knew EXACTLY who the two young men were already (this is what we might call a contrived story arch). Today, the older brother, Tamerlan Tsarnaev, is conveniently dead. The younger brother, Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, had his throat conveniently shot out. The feds are now supplying the media with “written confessions” from Dzhokhar to which there is no proof of legitimacy. For all we know the boy hasn’t written a word. The new “villains” get no voice in this drama, and thus become two dimensional characters. They exist so that we can hate them. Understanding them, or hearing their side of events from their own lips, is certainly out of the question. Poorly fleshed out antagonists are a sure sign of a poorly constructed story. Finally, we get to the “heroes”. Though the criminal elements of our federal government and adjoining alphabet agencies did not yet get the right wing patriot patsy they obviously wanted, they have still so far gleaned considerable social capital from the bombings. The point of a false flag is to frighten the population of any given nation into relinquishing freedom in the name of safety, which in the process gives the central government even more control. In the wake of the Boston attack, the establishment is having a field day… Martial Law Conditioning For a few days, Boston became an Orwellian nightmare. The city lockdown and subsequent militarization was swift, though any intelligent and guilty suspect could have easily left the area before hand. This kind of response to catch only two supposed perpetrators is outlandish, unless you understand that it was not about catching the bombers. Rather, it was an exercise designed to test the malleability of the American people during a crisis scenario. In Watertown, residents were not only forced into lockdown; they were also subjected to house-to-house searches without warrant, pat downs, and numerous other violations of their 4th Amendment rights. Take note that almost everything you see in the video below is an illegal and unconstitutional action on the part of Boston authorities:
As this was occurring, officials were consistently pushing media cameras away from the area in the name of “safety”, even though media cameramen are sent into domestic shootouts and foreign warzones on a regular basis. The only real purpose that I can see to removing them from the scene was to reduce the amount of video footage depicting these illegal searches and seizures:
For those who can’t grasp what has happened here, let me explain; the dynamics of liberty have just been erased. This kind of behavior on the part of government will not be limited to disasters like Boston, or New Orleans during Katrina; a precedence is being set to use martial law-style tactics anywhere for any reason at anytime. The “national security argument” is being used as a free license to institute any measure regardless of law to achieve a particular combat objective. The environment we saw in the dark days of Boston is an environment we’ll soon see all over the country, and here is why… Escalation Boston represents a clear escalation of the use of NDAA and martial law measures in the aftermath of a security event. After the arrest of Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, who became a naturalized U.S. citizen in 2012, his Miranda Rights under the Constitution were denied due to “extraneous circumstances of national security”. Numerous lawmakers called for the suspect to be treated as an “enemy combatant” so that he could be interrogated under the laws of war without due process: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/22/dzhokhar-tsarnaev-enemy-combatant_n_3132815.html The Obama White House has cleverly called for a civilian trial of Tsarnaev in order to reduce criticisms of its support for numerous unconstitutional measures, including the NDAA and the use of assassination against American citizens. The White House has always claimed that it would not use the combatant provisions against American citizens, but has never denied that those provisions could be applied to us. The idea is that while the president does have these powers at his disposal, we’re supposed to have “faith” that he will not abuse them. During the debate over the passage of the NDAA, Obama opposed certain language within the legislation that REQUIRED him to treat accused domestic terrorists as enemy combatants, not because he thought it was wrong, or unconstitutional, but because he wanted the OPTION to decide whether he would or would not black bag a citizen and throw him into an unspecified hole. He has simply exercised his “option” for a citizen trial, at least this time around… In the meantime, a simultaneous and so far poorly verified “train attack” has been averted in Canada, opening the door for more discussion on something the establishment has been trying to squeeze out of the populace for years: consent for the federalized lockdown of travel and public events. Whether through TSA, or the use of state authorities under the watch of the DHS, the government has been desperately clamoring to expand the control grid out of airports and federal buildings into the bus stations, subways, trains, highways and sidewalks of America: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/23/us-arrests-usa-railroads-idUSBRE93M1IZ20130423 I believe that we will soon see much greater presence of TSA VIPR teams at large public arenas and in transportation venues outside of airports, and that the Boston Bombing will be used as a primer for this expansion. Recent comments by NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg only reinforce my belief. Bloomberg, in reference to the marathon attack, stated that: “…we live in a complex word where you’re going to have to have a level of security greater than you did back in the olden days, if you will. And our laws and our interpretation of the Constitution, I think, have to change.” “Look, we live in a very dangerous world. We know there are people who want to take away our freedoms. New Yorkers probably know that as much if not more than anybody else after the terrible tragedy of 9/11…” “We have to understand that in the world going forward, we’re going to have more cameras and that kind of stuff. That’s good in some sense, but it’s different from what we are used to…” Ironically, the only enemy out there that appears ready to “take our freedoms away” are men like Bloomberg; snakes in the grass that pay lip service to the Constitution while constantly trying to undermine it. Free Speech Is Next The bombings in Boston took place, apparently by coincidence, just before Oath Keepers, a national organization of current serving military, police officers, and veterans promoting adherence to their constitutional oath was to hold a large rally at Lexington Green. The Lexington Green board, one member of which had been openly hostile to Oath Keepers in the past, decided to use the crisis as an excuse to deny the rally permit already attained by the liberty minded group. The Lexington Selectmen claimed that under the suggestions of “state officials” the rally had to be cancelled due to the “lack of police” available to secure the area and ensure public safety. However, when Oath Keepers held a brief oath ceremony at the Green in protest of the decision, a police force was sent to watch them: http://lexington.patch.com/articles/amid-manhunt-mayhem-oath-keepers-assemble-by-lexington-s-battle-green This means that public safety was not the issue. Rather, safety and security were being used yet again to deny a constitutional right, and this time it was the most vital and valuable right of all – free speech. During the height of the civil rights marches of the 50’s and 60’s, the exact same tactics were used to silence dissent. Black protesters were told that they could not obtain proper permits for peaceful marches because their “own safety” and the safety of the public could not be ensured. This matter of using broad hypothetical dangers as a catalyst for censorship was finally argued before the Supreme Court in Shuttlesworth v. Birmingham. The court sided with the protestors, pointing out that the use of undefined safety concerns and “prior restraint” to silence speech was unconstitutional. Unfortunately, the decision has not prevented the U.S. government from slowly undermining public protest rights ever since. The fascinating thing about incremental tyranny is the way in which naïve members of our society try to rationalize it. They debate using logical fallacies like: “How have your rights been violated in particular? If your rights haven’t been violated, what right do you have to complain?” And how about this gem… “Yeah, there are problems in this country, but at least we have some freedom. In many countries, you wouldn’t be allowed to complain the way you are…” This is statist psychology at work. Freedom, in their minds, is a privilege doled out by governments, rather than an inborn attribute outside of the realm of law. They do not understand that the violation of the rights of one American is a violation of the rights of ALL Americans. They do not understand that the destruction of some constitutional protections will one day lead to the destruction of ALL constitutional protections. The establishment and the useful idiots they manipulate want to make the “threat” the center of attention, but ultimately, the threat is irrelevant. There will always be the danger of terrorism and death. Always! And, if our government is following the Operation Gladio false flag model (look it up, folks, it was openly admitted government funded terrorism), as I believe they are, then we can count on Boston-style bombings all over the U.S. very soon. True crisis lay in what we refuse to see, and the greatest crisis today is not the bombing of a marathon, but the destruction of our freedoms in the name of “security”. The bottom line? Our civil liberties are not up for compromise. Period. Shootings, bombs, nukes, nothing! There is no rationalization that will ever make tyranny a moral enterprise. I, like many other Americans, do not care what boogeyman fantasy is paraded in front of me. We are not frightened, and we are not ignorant. No attack, no matter how heinous, will ever convince us to hand over our freedom.
|
04-26-13 | THESIS | MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - Apr. 21st - Apr. 27th 2013 |
RISK REVERSAL | 1 | ||
JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION | 2 | ||
JAPAN - Little Physical or Mechanical reason for the BOJ’s easing program to work. Japan's Inflation Propaganda And Why The BoJ Better Hope It's Not Successful 04-20-13 Nomura's Richard Koo via ZH The existing (and ongoing) massive expansion of base money into the banking systems of the US, England, and Japan is without precedent. As Nomura's Richard Koo notes, at 16x statutory reserves, the liquidity 'should' have led to unprecedented inflation rates of 1,600% in the US, 970% in the UK, and 480% in Japan. However, it has not, yet. In short, Koo continues, businesses and households in these economies have stopped borrowing money even though interest rates have fallen to zero. And with no one borrowing money and many actually paying down debt, the money multiplier has turned negative at the margin - because of the severe damage caused to balance sheets when the bubble collapse drove asset prices lower while leaving debts intact (so-called balance-sheet-recession). This suggests that there is little physical or mechanical reason for the BOJ’s easing program to work. But the program could also have a psychological impact - and Japanese media is on an 'inflation' full-court press currently. The risk here is that not only borrowers but also lenders will start to believe the lies. No financial institutions anticipating inflation could ever lend money at current interest rates. No actual damage will be done as long as the easing program remains ineffective. But once it starts to affect psychology, the BOJ needs to quickly reverse the policy and bring the monetary base back to 'normal'. If the policy reversal is delayed, the Japanese economy (and inflation) could spiral out of control. Via Richard Koo, Nomura, The Money Multiplier... and inflation...
US and UK have 'not' been a success...
Because...
But still the central bankers try...
Ignoring the reality that...
and the empirical proof that...
Unintended consequences...
And QE may have run its course...
Because...
Yet the quantitative easing policies adopted by central banks in the major economies are all designed to increase the number of lenders...
The discussion above suggests that there is little physical or mechanical reason for the BOJ’s easing program to work. But the program could also have a psychological impact...
The problem is - what if the people start to believe...
Which could rapidly lead to...
And don't rely on 80 year old 'proof' since it is different this time...
Be careful what you wish for...
Full article below... |
04-24-13 | JAPAN | 2 - Japan Debt Deflation Spiral |
BOND BUBBLE | 3 | ||
EU BANKING CRISIS |
4 |
||
SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS [Euope Crisis Tracker] | 5 | ||
CHINA BUBBLE | 6 | ||
TO TOP | |||
MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week | |||
GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
|||
US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
|||
US ECONOMY - At Stall Speed Before Payroll Tax Holiday Not Renewed Major Realignment Of The Markets BofAML's David Woo via ZH Moment of truth for US consumers The prevailing optimism towards US consumers reflects the view that rising home prices will offset the impact of fiscal tightening. We have argued that whether this will turn out to be the case will depend critically on what happens to consumer confidence. Michigan consumer expectations fell in April to the lowest level since the fiscal cliff crisis. Furthermore, with the household saving rate having fallen to just 2.6% in February - the lowest level since December 2007 - household consumption could be more vulnerable than usual to any sudden confidence shock. In our view, the market continues to underestimate the headwinds associated with the implementation of the sequester. Our US economist team estimate that this will amount to about $50bn worth of fiscal tightening over the next six months. If we were to assume that this will primarily take the form of reduced wages/salaries of government employees and contractors and that most of the hit will occur in Q2, this could result in a very dramatic shock to household income (Chart 10). |
04-25-13 | INDICATORS CYCLE |
US ECONOMICS |
DURABLE GOODS - New Factory Orders Raise Your Hand If You Can See The Recovery 04-24-13 Durable Goods report and/or St. Louis Fedvia ZHThe year over year change in durable goods ex transports (aka Boeing's fully cancelable orders for flaming lithium- battery powered paperweights aircraft). All we say is we are so grateful for $160 billion in central bank QE each month (soon to rise to $200 billion once Goldman's Mark Carney spreads his tentacles in the Bank of England). |
04-25-13 | INDICATORS CYCLE |
US ECONOMICS |
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE - Continuing to Rollover March Durable Goods Implode, Plunge -5.7%; CapEx Recovery Put On Indefinite Hiatus 04-24-13 Zero Hedge So much for the great American CapEx recovery. Moments ago the Census department released the March Durable Goods report, thanks to which one can lay to rest any hope of a recovery in the US economy, with the headline number printing an absolutely abysmal -5.7%, an epic swing from the +5.7% (revised lower of course to 4.3%) in February, and confirming the recovery is dead and buried. This was the biggest miss in headline data and the biggest drop since August, and the second worst since January 2009. Although we are confident the propaganda spin is just waiting to be unleashed: after all it is possible that March weather was both too hot and too cold, thereby making the number completely irrelevant - after all it is always the inclement weather's fault when the economy does not act as predicted by some economist's DSGE model of reality and stuff. This headline number was obviously a huge miss to expectations of -3%, with the misses spreading to all sub headline categories too: Durables ex-transportation was down -1.4%, on expectations of a 0.5% rise, (previous revised from -0.5% to -1.7%). And so much for CapEx with Cap Goods nondefense ex aircraft up just 0.2% (0.3% exp) with the previous revised from -2.7% to -4.8%, while the nondefense orders shipped ex air missed expectations of a 0.8% rise, printing at 0.3%, and the February data revised from 1.9% to 1.2%. In brief, horrifying economic data however one looks at it, and proof that the great CapEx recovery never existed to begin with. So much for 3% Q1 GDP, which is about to be revised by everyone lower across the board. Finally, if this economic collapse validation doesn't send the S&P limit up, nothing will. The only two charts needed to show what is really going on in terms of capex and generally spending on core capex: Orders: Shipments: |
04-25-13 | INDICATORS CYCLE |
US ECONOMICS |
US MACRO - Seasonal Correlation The Mystery Of The "Spring Swoon" Revealed 04-23-13 Zero Hedge For the last few years, the US equity market has soared through Q4 and into Q1 and macro-economic indications have trended with them in a virtuous circle 'confirming' that this time it's different and recovery is 'on'. Then just as investors get all bulled up, convinced by the market's all-knowing-efficiency that the old normal is back and growth is returning, macro-economic data starts to disappoint expectations. This is initially shrugged off - "it's a transitory dip", "the market sees through this temporary weakness", "where else are you going to put your money?" - and the stock buying continues through the Winter. But there comes a time, when the divergence from economic reality grows too wide and the 'faith' that the market knows best starts to fade; and sure enough, each time, the market drops back rapidly to reality. What is the common denominator for this winter surge? Simple - massive global central bank bailouts/injections in the months just before winter that levitate the market (and psychologically create 'hope' that is then extrapolated into future economic expectations which then after a one- to two-quarter lag, leads to disappointment as real economic data can't match the market's implied reality). 2010-11... 2011-12... 2012-13... So while heretofore taboo topics such as seasonal adjustments have been put forward to explain this mysterious cyclical deterioration between the winter and spring season for three years in a row; it seems the answer is far simpler and more practical to our new normal reality - a Central Bank induced hope that floods from market to real economic hopes, is 'priced in' by analysts, then fails to live up to the reality simply because it was never a real trend anyway - that leaves the economists all looking at their Birinyi's rulers and wondering if once again, the extrapolators-in-chief are wrong... Print, Rinse, Repeat... |
04-24-13 | PATTERNS | US ECONOMICS |
US PORT TRAFFIC - A Slowing Trend Showing in US Consumption LA area Port Traffic decreases year-over-year in March 04-17-13 Calculated Risk Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possibly some hints about the trade report for March since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was up 2% in March, and outbound traffic down slightly, compared to the rolling 12 months ending in February. Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March. |
04-23-13 | US INDICATORS CYCLE GROWTH |
US ECONOMICS |
US RAIL TRAFFFIC - Trending Lower Rail Traffic Continues to Trend Lower 04-19-13 Pragmatic Capitalist Recent rail trends have weakened substantially from very strong levels earlier this year. The latest weekly reading came in at 3.3% year over year, but continues a trend of low single digit readings. This latest data brings the 12 week average to 4.4%. That’s still a healthy level, but well off the March high of 3.6%. In this environment I guess any growth is good growth so this has to go down as a moderate positive for the economy even though the trend is negative. Here’s more via AAR:
Chart via Orcam Investment Research: |
04-23-13 | US INDICATORS CYCLE GROWTH |
US ECONOMICS |
HOTEL OCCUPANCY - Back to Pre-Recession Levels Hotels: Occupancy Rate tracking pre-recession levels 04-19-13 Calculated Risk Another update on hotels from HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US results for week ending 13 April In year-over-year comparisons, occupancy was up 3.2 percent to 64.1 percent, average daily rate rose 7.2 percent to US$110.88 and revenue per available room increased 10.7 percent to US$71.04. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is close to normal levels.
The red line is for 2013, yellow is for 2012, blue is "normal" and black is for 2009 - the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels. The occupancy rate will probably move sideways until the summer vacation travel starts. The occupancy rate has improved from the same period last year - and is tracking the pre-recession levels. Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com |
04-23-13 | US INDICATORS CATALYST CRE |
US ECONOMICS |
US BUDGET - As Represented and Spun for the Public President Obama's Entire Budget In One Chart 04-10-13 BI Obama's budget attempts to reduce the Federal Deficit by $1.7 trillion over 10 years, using a combination of spending cuts and increased taxes. So what does the budget really look like? We compared the numbers from the White House budget with the current CBO baseline of what budgets are currently expected to look like to figure out what he actually changes For each key category, the level zero is the current projected funding level for the next ten years. If a line goes above zero, the President's budget will spend more on it than current funding levels — or in the case of revenues, that number will be higher. Just a primer:
The general trend? Most of the lines on the budget exceed funding for the next two to three years (stimulus basically), then drop below projected funding levels following 2016 or 2017. So in other words, this represents the kind of stimulus-now, but-later budgeting that a lot of economists in Washington favor. |
04-23-13 | US FISCAL | US ECONOMICS |
BIG GOVERNMENT - A Budget That Institutionalizes Big Government President Obama's Predictable Budget: More Spending, More Tax Increases 04-19-13 Peter Ferrara, Contributor , FORBES
“more than $2 in spending cuts for every $1 of new revenue from closing tax loopholes and reducing tax benefits for the wealthiest.” SPENDING INCREASES: There are No Cuts But President Obama’s budget does not propose any spending cuts at all on net, not even reductions from expected increases in spending.
Indeed, President Obama’s talk of “spending cuts’ in his budget Overview is followed by pages of proposals for increased spending. That reflects Obama’s basic thinking that what drives economic recovery and growth is increased government spending. But Obama’s economic record is a thorough rebuttal to that thinking. Not one of those increased spending proposals in his 2014 budget would contribute to increased economic growth and prosperity on net. TAX INCREASES: Just More Tax Increases Besides these runaway spending increases, Obama’s budget also proposes
BALANCED BUDGET: A Deficit Doubletalk Mirage Despite all the tax increases, President Obama’s budget proposal would never balance the budget, by Obama’s own admission. His own budget admits that
ASSUMPTIONS: Revenue
ASSUMPTIONS: Growth
ASSUMPTIONS: Interest Rates
ASSUMPTION: No Recession
With these assumptions, the deficit and debt projections in Obama’s budget cannot be taken seriously, and most likely will turn out to be grossly underestimated. ENTITLEMENT REFORM - A Charade President Obama has his propagandist flacks out there touting his supposed entitlement reforms in this budget as a grand gesture of compromise with Republicans. But there is
Imagine what would happen to our national defense if the government refused to pay the builders of the Navy’s ships, the manufacturers of the Air Force’s planes, and the makers of the Army’s tanks. That is what is going to happen to health care for seniors under Medicare, given Obama’s so-called “reforms.” REAL ENTITLEMENT REFORM
POLITICAL POSTURING - This is What the Budget Is All About Federal law requires President Obama to propose a budget for the next fiscal year by February 4 of each year, before the House and the Senate adopt their own budget resolutions. But President Obama released his budget for next year just last week, after the House and the Senate had already adopted their budget resolutions. So what is the point of the President issuing a budget proposal now? The point is to simply posture for all those low information, Twitter voters in the 2014 elections, who will hear only from all the Democrat Party propagandists at the New York Times, the Washington Post, and MSNBC and brethren. They will hear only about President Obama’s “spending cuts,” his grand, compromising, entitlement reforms, and how he is fighting for the middle class, with declining median incomes throughout his Administration, for the poor, with record, soaring poverty, and for “equality,” even as inequality has actually risen throughout his Administration. Is this generation of Americans in the process of proving America’s more than 200 year experiment with democracy a failure |
04-23-13 | US FISCAL OBAMA BUDGET |
US ECONOMICS |
US GDP - Growth Through Manipulation
US GDP Will Be Revised Higher By $500 Billion Following Addition Of "Intangibles" To Economy 04-21-13 Zero Hedge Those who have been following the US debt to GDP ratio now that the US officially does not have a debt ceiling indefinitely, may have had the occasional panic attack seeing how this country's leverage ratio is rapidly approaching that of a Troika case study of a PIIG in complete failure. And at 107% debt/GDP no explanations are necessary. Luckily, the official gatekeepers of America's economic growth (with decimal point precision), the Bureau of Economic Analysis have a plan on how to make the US economy, which is now growing at an abysmal 1.5% annualized pace, or about 5 times slower than US debt growing at 7.5% annually, catch up: magically make up a number out of thin air, and add it to the total. And it literally is out of thin air: according to the FT the addition will constitute of a one-time addition of intangibles, amounting to 3% of total US GDP, or more than the size of Belgium at $500 billion, to the US economy.
What exactly will constitute GDP growth going forward? In a word, intangibles: films, books, magazines and iTunes songs.
Nothing like adding intangibles in the fluid, ever-changing definition of what constitutes an economy. Naturally, the only reason for this artificial "boost" to the US economy which apparently can be any old arbitrary number agreed upon by a few accountants, and which always goes up post revision, never down, is to make US debt/GDP under 100% once again, if only very briefly. Surely a few months later something else can be "added" to GDP making the US economy appear better than it is once more. Finally, all of the above is a distraction for idiots. As most people should know by know (this logically excludes economists), the only factor leading to economic "growth" is the expansion of liabilities of the financial system, whereby new credit (in a healthy environment, not one centrally-planned by several Princeton real-world rejects, where the central bank is forced to create all credit expansion with money that never leaves the banks and the capital markets closed loop) creates new money, creates demand for products and services, and circulates in the economy. This can be seen in the chart below which shows the nearly perfect correlation between total bank liabilities in the US, as per the Fed's Flow Of Funds report, and total US GDP. Bottom line: the BEA can capitalize air consumption if it thinks it will make US GDP soar, but unless new credit and bank liabilities are created not due to forced supply but demand, and unless the private financial sector is finally willing to start lending money (which for the entire duration of QE it has not) US growth will stall and then proceed to decline. Case in point: total US commerical bank loans are still lower than they were the day Lehman filed. In other words, all the GDP "growth" since the Lehman failure has come on the back of money "created" by the Fed. And there are still those who think the Fed will ever unwind... |
04-22-13 | US MONETARY |
US ECONOMICS |
TOO BIG TO GOVERN (TBTG) - Bloated Government Crowds Out Private Investment 100 Years Of Government's Takeover Of The Economy 04-20-13 Zero Hedge The ever-encroaching 'might' of the government - or perhaps, put another way, the ever-decreasing need to be gainfully employed or productive... |
04-22-13 | FISCAL | US ECONOMICS |
SURPRISE INDEX - Negative Annual Cyclical Pattern Occurs Again The Citi Economic Surprise Index Just Went Negative... 04-16-13 BI Lately economic data seems to be coming in week, and it's gotten a lot of people talking about a "spring swoon" for the economy. Actually, there's a bigger patter people are worried about, that every year we seem to have these false dawns for the economy, only for things to get sluggish again. The March jobs report (which came in at just 88K) was the most glaring example of the weakness, but also there's been some weak housing and retail data. The Citi Economic Surprise Index is a measure that tries to capture how well the data is coming in relative to economic expectations. After all, this is what's key to markets. It's not so much about whether the data is good or bad, but whether it's better or worse than what people thought it would be. Positive numbers indicate that the data is still "beating." Negative numbers show missing. The index has just turned negative. |
04-22-13 | US MACRO INDICATORS |
US ECONOMICS |
CONSUMER SENTIMENT - Americans Feel They Are In A Recession Consumers around the world grappled with increasing economic concerns Nielsen Q4 Consumer Confidence Report
|
04-22-13 | CONSUMER SENTIMENT | US ECONOMICS |
US FISCAL - Taxes and Spending Show These Charts To Anyone Who Thinks Debt, Spending, And Taxes Are At All Time Highs 04-22-13 BI Think debt, taxes, and spending are at all-time highs these days? It turns out that belief is almost totally false. A presentation from the Bureau of Economic Analysis includes three charts that everyone should see. It turns out, taxes are lower than through most of history, debt as a percentage of GDP has been much higher in the past, and on government spending, only if you include transfer payments (like Social Security) is spending at a new high relative to GDP. If you look at actual government spending that doesn't go straight to people, it's low.
|
04-22-13 | US FISCAL | US ECONOMICS |
CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES | |||
Market Analytics | |||
TECHNICALS & MARKET ANALYTICS |
|
||
INFLATION - 10Y Inflation Breakeven Disconnected from Markets An Ominous Market Indicator Appears To Be Confirming The Dreaded Third Top 04-22-13 BI the S&P 500 is now outpacing inflation expectations even more than it did at the market tops of either 2000 or 2007. The chart below shows that this divergence has been a couple years in the making at this point. However, in recent weeks, a lot of talk about disinflation and deflation has resurfaced. After taking the prize as one of the worst performing asset classes in the first quarter, the commodity complex has become completely unglued in April. At the same time, there has been a big rally in Treasuries as investors position for a slowdown in global growth. As the slide below explains, "Expectations of price increases (inflation) are a sign of potentially stronger demand growth and higher margins, which is a positive for stocks." Arguably, the latest developments on the inflation front are not positive for stocks.
|
04-24-13 | PATTERNS | ANALYTICS |
CANARIES - A Major Contrarian Warning Signal HUSSMAN: The Cover Of The Latest Barron's Is A Screaming Call To Sell 04-23-13 BI This weekend we mentioned the latest Barron's cover, which is about the paper's professional investor survey, which shows record high bullishness and a widespread belief that the Dow is going to go to 16,000. John Hussman, the famously bearish mutual fund manager, sees this as screaming sell signal, as he invokes the ol' contrarian magazine cover indicator. He writes: The Barron’s Big Money Poll is typically bullish, on balance. This is Wall Street, after all. But variations in the tone and extent of that bullishness can be informative, especially when the consensus is extremely optimistic at new highs of mature bull markets, and defensive at new lows of mature bear markets. I can’t really throw stones about 2009, as I had my own concerns at the time (relating to the need to stress-test against Depression era outcomes, despite our favorable views of valuation). But it’s worth noting that the 2009 Big Money Poll questioned the advance from the March lows, noting “good reason not to jump in with both feet yet.” The 2003 Big Money Poll – already well into a new bull market – was bullish on balance, and up from just 43% bulls in an October 2002 poll near the market lows. Still, the 2003 poll noted “the bulls’ views have been tempered by the market’s losses in recent years. Consequently their expectations for the Dow, the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index, and the Nasdaq Composite have been ratcheted down from past surveys.” This certainly isn’t a criticism of Barron’s itself. I grew up on Barron’s Magazine, and will remain a devoted reader at least as long as Alan Abelson provides a worthy counterbalance to the more short-sighted views of Wall Street and the Market Lab section remains in print. Still, the Big Money Poll is most useful as a contrary indicator. Rule o’ Thumb: When the cover of a major financial magazine features a cartoon of a bull leaping through the air on a pogo stick, it’s probably about time to cash in the chips. Anyway, this chart from Hussman says it all. |
04-23-13 | RISK CANARIES |
ANALYTICS |
COMMODITY CORNER - HARD ASSETS | |||
THESIS Themes | |||
2013 - STATISM |
|||
SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - Vice rules over Virtue as America Remains Long on Indifference and Short on Indignation. America, Long On Indifference, Short On Indignation 04-23-13 Via Ben Tanosburn of Tanosburn.com via ZH A friend who teaches history in one of the area’s community colleges cynically told me a dozen years ago, shortly after the September 11 attack, that the upcoming writing of American history would be done not by historians, but by economists. He contended that American military spending had brought the Soviet empire to its knees a generation before, now (in 2001) Osama bin Laden was lighting what he called the “slow wick-fuse” that would have the US implode as the ruling empire within a couple of decades. My young friend then proceeded to draw economic curves on the un-rationed napkins made available with our overpriced Starbucks coffee. His extrapolation of expenditures for components and subcomponents of the GDP might have appeared pessimistic then, but there was unquestionable rationality in his overall treatment. Fear-triggered added government expenditures, whether via National Defense or some new domestic super-agency, would end up impoverishing the country; and, as he put it, “if fear expenditures don’t bury us, healthcare costs will.” And all this history in front of us, we both agreed, was happening because of our blatant civic indifference to how our nation was being governed; or, rather, how the people had forfeited their duty to govern themselves. The Boston Marathon terror incident made me revisit that extended coffee break with my friend, and what has happened in the twelve years hence. We now have Homeland Security “defending” us – from little, other than fear – at a total budget authority which approaches $60 billion annually. Two wars and more than a trillion dollars later, we have raised our chances for fear possibly ten, maybe even a hundred-fold… something which will eventually mature in terror to be perpetrated by those who’ll try to avenge the long line of victims the US has left behind in its imperial quest. And added to the grievous vice of our indifference is our lack of indignation in watching ourselves being marched to the slaughter house and not showing an ounce of courage, a legitimate cry of indignation. It became evident, if only in the economic arena, when the Occupy Movement made an attempt to pinpoint blame for the nation’s economic ills. Indignation never materialized… indifference quickly suffocating the cries of a few. As for any questioning by Americans of the seeds which grow terror; that will never happen while the empire continues waving its flags from hundreds of enclaves all over the world. Unfortunately, most Americans find pride in that, not indignation. Anton Chekhov in his Gooseberries could just as easily have been writing about life a century later in this America of ours:
So much for indignation, the silent protest of statistics! Whether Chekhov’s town of 50,000 or today’s US of 315+ million people, we are all immersed in our selfish little lives proudly displaying what could be society’s worst vice: indifference… indifference to “all the horror of life [that] goes on somewhere behind the scenes.” Indifference has historically been accepted by multiple cultures and religions as a vice. Isn’t it about time, in an era where democracy appears to be slowly gaining ground, that we successfully battle such vice with its corresponding virtue: indignation? After all, indignation is not just anger, but righteous anger at people or situations that are truly offensive or unjust to the better nature of humankind. As we look at the arrogance of the strong, and the ignorance of the weak, we can’t help but recognize that at least for now... vice rules over virtue and our country will continue to remain long on indifference and short on indignation. And that’s not a prescription to cure us from terrorism... or, what’s even worse, the fear of terrorism. |
04-23-13 | THESIS | |
2012 - FINANCIAL REPRESSION |
|||
2011 - BEGGAR-THY-NEIGHBOR -- CURRENCY WARS |
|||
2010 - EXTEN D & PRETEND |
|||
THEMES | |||
CORPORATOCRACY - CRONY CAPITALSIM | |||
CRONY CAPITALISM -A destructive and distorted government protection racket Farm Supports and Social Welfare 05-24-13 James Hall BATR.ORG The planting season is in full swing as is the transfer of subsidies to big agriculture and social welfare food stamps. Which has more worth, paying the Monsanto and property tax bill or running a public assistance program that allows for the buying of lottery tickets? Well, if you are Congress, both have benefit, but mostly for their political value.Why are food stamps part of the Farm Bill? Nancy Marshall-Genzer makes a shrewd observation.
Is it necessary to expand exponentially the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), to relieve starvation when a "Happy Meal" can be purchased at every turn? Yet the socialization culture boasts of the dietary benefits of being on the government dole, as the urban society continues to consume every cuisine of fast foods. The Washington Times notes that under the Food stamp president: Enrollment up 70 percent under Obama and that present legislation "allow for those with higher incomes to take food stamps — the logic being that helping people before they reach crisis financial level will actually stimulate the economy."What did people do for food before the era of the "Great Society"? Farming was a way of life for rural America from the inception of the country. In spite of struggling out a livelihood from an often-harsh pastoral environment, agriculture capacity grew into the breadbasket of the world. Today, the gentleman farmer needs to master the skills of trading future contracts and applications for assistance. A starting point for subsidies "can supplement a farmer's income and as well as provide funds for rental payments for land and assistance when the market price of a crop is low. Farm subsidies also play a role in the cost and availability of certain agricultural commodities."
Farming as a productive enterprise is rapidly becoming big business. The family farm is no longer an independent endeavor based upon market prices and ingenious management. The quasi-government debt and subsidy cycle, demands a public partnership with federal and state agencies that distort production and consumer prices at every level. Economy of scale seems to be the only path left to plow the fertile fields of government subsidies. The corporate agriculture conglomerates have become integral constituents of the seed, fertilizer and chemical industry. Both collaborators hire their political lobbyists to expand financial supports, resistive food labeling disclosures and apply economic pressure to stamp out holistic food competition. The taxpayer should be concerned over the institutionalization and dependency of the SNAP mentality that eats at the fabric of a viable market economy. However, even more diabolical is the destructive subsidization of farming that dramatically benefits corporatist agriculture at the expense of organic agrarian alternatives. US News takes the position that the Farm Bill's Corporate Welfare Is Unacceptable.
A comprehensive overhaul of government agriculture policy may not seem very probable from a political will perspective. Nevertheless, the gravy train of public money cannot be a substitute for tilling the soil and weeding the crops. When government legislation attempts to maintain an inexpensive retail food price with public grants, loans and subsidies, the true cost of national nourishment is unsustainable. The urbanization of the political electorate dictates that the bottom feeders expect their groceries be delivered from a full service supermarket. As any rural resident knows, the nature of the land has its own set of rules and demands. Famine and undernourishment applies to much more than the food supply. It resides in the destructive and distorted government protection racket that leaves the public with a deep hunger in their belly. James Hall – April, 24, 2013 |
04-25-13 | THMEMES | CRONY CAPITALISM |
GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE | |||
SOCIAL UNREST |
|||
CENTRAL PLANNING |
|||
STANDARD OF LIVING |
|||
STANDARD OF LIVING - More than Americans Disposable Income Being Crushed America: #1 In Fear, Stress, Anger, Divorce, Obesity, Anti-Depressants, Etc. 04-23-13 Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog via ZH The United States is a deeply unhappy place. We are a nation that is absolutely consumed by fear, stress, anger and depression. It isn't just our economy that is falling apart - the very fabric of society is starting to come apart at the seams and it is because of what is happening to us on the inside. The facts and statistics that I am going to share with you in this article are quite startling. They are clear evidence that America is a nation that is an advanced state of decline. We are overwhelmed by fear, stress and anxiety, and much of the time the ways that we choose to deal with those emotions lead to some very self-destructive behaviors. Americans have experienced a standard of living far beyond the wildest dreams of most societies throughout human history, and yet we are an absolutely miserable people. Why is this? Why is America #1 in so many negative categories? Why are we constantly looking for ways to escape the pain of our own lives? Why are our families falling apart? There is vast material wealth all around us. So why can't we be happy? Just look around you. Are most of the people around you teeming with happiness and joy? Sadly, the truth is that most Americans are terribly stressed out. Yeah, many of them may be able to manage to come up with a smile when they greet you, but most of the time they are consumed by internal struggles that are eating away at them like cancer. So why is this happening? Is modern life structured in a way that is fundamentally unhealthy? Below I have posted a short excerpt from a message that one of Charles Hugh Smith's readers named Kenneth Daigle recently sent to him. I think that it does a good job of describing the incredible stress that many people contend with on a daily basis...
Most Americans live lives of "quiet desperation" that are punctuated by moments of great crisis. We spend our prime years working for others (making them rich) in order to pay off debts that we have foolishly accumulated (thus making the banks even wealthier). When most Americans reach the end of their lives, they look back and wonder what they actually accomplished. James Altucher published an incredible article the other day entitled "Why Do People Hate Their Jobs?" It did a great job of describing what life is like for the modern worker in America. The following are a few of the reasons that he says people tend to hate their jobs...
And of course when we get home from work there is even more stress. In America today, we are witnessing a breakdown of the family unlike anything we have ever seen before. The United States leads the world in divorce and in single person households. We are having an increasingly difficult time relating to one another, and many of us drown our sorrows in our addictions. We are addicted to pills, to alcohol, to food, to entertainment, to sex, to gambling, to shopping and to anything else that will make us feel good and forget about our problems for a while. The following is a collection of facts and statistics that prove that America is being absolutely consumed by fear, stress, anger and depression...
Fear is one of the primary things that motivates the American people, and that is a very powerful weapon that can be used against us. As I wrote about yesterday, those that commit acts of terror want to get attention and they want to create fear. And that is exactly what the Boston Marathon bombing accomplished. It captured the attention of the nation for days on end, and it absolutely paralyzed the entire Boston area with fear. When we allow ourselves to be terrorized, we actually encourage more terror attacks. When we give terrorists what they want, it just encourages more psychos to commit acts of terror. If you don't believe me, just check out the following links that I found posted on The Drudge Report on Monday...
The appropriate response to a terror attack is to refuse to be terrorized. Yes, we should also work to expose and punish the individuals, organizations and governments that are behind terror. But we should also not let terror change how we live our lives, and we should definitely not allow terror to be used as an excuse to rip our liberties and freedoms away. Sadly, as Ron Paul has detailed, some of our politicians are already calling for "tighter security" in the aftermath of the Boston Marathon bombing...
But no matter how much liberty and freedom we give up, we will never be 100% safe. Bad people are always going to do bad things, and unfortunately we are probably going to see some pretty nightmarish things in the years ahead as the world becomes even more unstable. If we allow the bad guys to get us so frightened that we throw out the U.S. Constitution and abandon our liberties and our freedoms, then we are the ones who lose. Yes, the years ahead are going to be tough. The economic collapse is going to accelerate greatly, there will be tremendous natural disasters, there will be war in the Middle East and there will be other problems that we cannot even conceive of right now. At the same time, the American people will continue to become even angrier and even more frustrated. According to a recent Pew Research survey, the percentage of Americans with a favorable view of the federal government is now at an all-time low. As the economy crumbles, there will likely be great civil unrest as people demand solutions. Unfortunately, our problems took decades to develop and they will not be solved overnight even if we did have good people in office. So why am I saying all of this? And why am I constantly warning about the coming economic collapse? Is it because I want to create fear ? No, just the opposite of that. I am a watchman on the wall. In ancient times, a watchman would warn the people when the enemy was approaching. When you receive the warning, there are a few different ways that you can respond to it...
And that is how I would encourage all of you to approach the coming economic collapse and the other great problems that we will soon be experiencing as a nation. Do not be afraid. Instead, be strong and courageous and prepare well for the storms that are coming. |
04-24-13 | THEME | |
NATURE OF WORK | |||
CATALYSTS - FEAR & GREED | |||
GENERAL INTEREST |
|
||
TO TOP | |||
|
Tipping Points Life Cycle - Explained
Click on image to enlarge
TO TOP
![]() |
YOUR SOURCE FOR THE LATEST THINKING & RESEARCH
|
TO TOP
FAIR USE NOTICE This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.
If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. DISCLOSURE Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments. COPYRIGHT © Copyright 2010-2011 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him
|