DEBT SATURATION - There is Simply Insufficient Wealth Creation Within Developed Nations

A gordontlong.com MATA Study

INTEREST RATES Have been Declining Since 1790

INTEREST RATES Have been brought down at an Even Faster Rate since the "Volcker' Save

EXTREMELY WELL MANAGED Interest Rate Decline

INTEREST RATE DECLINE HAS HIDDEN the exploding Growth of Credit & Its Burden (Until the 2008 Crisis)

GROWTH TO CARRY DEBT SATURATION is not Sufficient

THE RATE OF WEALTH CREATION IS INSUFFICENT

EQUITY (WEALTH) is not being created at sufficient enough rate to support expanding debt burden (ECONOMIC BLEED)

VALUATIONS, INTRINSIC VALUE AND EV are fundamentally defined by DFCF (Discounted Free Cash Flow)

THIS IS SMALLER THAN THE RATE OF INFLATION

= CONTRACTION or IMPLOSION

"TAPER" PERSPECTIVE - A Scare Before the 'OPMF' Storm

A gordontlong.com MATA Study

ERA OF FINANCIAL REPRESSION

"TAPER" IN PERSPECTIVE

'TAPER' is the equivalent of the 'old time' school bus driver "Tapping" on the brakes to make the'children sit down' before hitting the gas pedal AGAIN!

It's Not Growth 'Hopes' That Has Backed Up Rates 06-04-13 Barclays' via ZH

While the back up in interest rates over the last few weeks has been heralded by those with a bias for these things as some indication of growth expectations improving - confirming the equity exuberance they stand on as sensible; it appears, if one actually takes a look a little deeper into market movements, that in fact this is 'all' about 'Taper' concerns and nothing to do with growth. The driver of this reasoning is straightforward. If the move higher in rates were really about perceived improvement in the growth outlook, we would expect credit markets to rally - as they have during all prior periods of rate spikes. This time is different as they sold off together. Simply put, this is not a growth-driven rate reversion, it is short-term fears (and JGB VaR shock driven concerns) of a Fed worried about bubbles and taking its foot off the throttle modestly.

The past three weeks have seen intraday spread moves correlate extremely closely with rates - suggesting Fed Taper concerns - not growth at all - as the flow may slow.

Chart: Barclays

CANARIES - Problems Erupting Everywhere (Signs of Implosion)

18 Signs That Massive Economic Problems Are Erupting Everywhere 06-03-13 Zero Hedge

This is no time to be complacent.  Massive economic problems are erupting all over the globe, but most people seem to believe that everything is going to be just fine.  In fact, a whole bunch of recent polls and surveys show that the American people are starting to feel much better about how the U.S. economy is performing.  Unfortunately, the false prosperity that we are currently enjoying is not going to last much longer.  Just look at what is happening in Europe.  The eurozone is now in the midst of the longest recession that it has ever experienced.  Just look at what is happening over in Asia.  Economic growth in India is the lowest that it has been in a decade and the Japanese financial system is beginning to spin wildly out of control.

One of the only places on the entire planet where serious economic problems have not already erupted is in the United States, and that is only because we have "kicked the can down the road" by recklessly printing money and by borrowing money at an unprecedented rate.  Unfortunately, the "sugar high" produced by those foolish measures is starting to wear off.  We are going to experience a massive amount of economic pain along with the rest of the world - it is just a matter of time.

But for the moment, there are a lot of skeptics out there. For the moment, there are a lot of people that are declaring that the problems of the past have been fixed and that we are heading for incredibly bright economic times ahead. Unfortunately, those people appear to be purposely ignoring the economic horror that is breaking out all over the globe.

The following are 18 signs that massive economic problems are erupting all over the planet...

#1 The eurozone is now in the midst of its longest recession ever.  Economic activity in the eurozone has declined for six quarters in a row.

#2 Italy's economy has now been contracting for seven quarters in a row.

#3 Industrial production in Italy has fallen for 15 months in a row.  It has now fallen to its lowest level in about 25 years.

#4 The number of people that are considered to be "seriously deprived" in Italy has doubled over the past two years.

#5 Consumer confidence in France has just hit a new all-time low.

#6 The number of unemployed workers seeking a job in France has hit a brand new all-time record high.  Many unemployed workers in France are utterly frustrated at this point...

"I've sent CVs everywhere, I come to the unemployment agency every day, for 3 or 4 hours to look for work as a truck driver and there's never anything," said 42-year old Djamel Sami, who has been unemployed for a year, leaving a job agency in Paris.

#7 Unemployment in the eurozone as a whole has just hit a brand new all-time record high of 12.2 percent.

#8 Youth unemployment continues to soar to unprecedented heights in Europe.  The following is from an article that was recently posted on the website of the Guardian that detailed how bad things are getting in some of the worst countries...

In Greece, 62.5% of young people are out of work, in Spain it's 56.4%, then Portugal with 42.5%, and then Italy with 40.5%.

#9 Youth unemployment is being partially blamed for the worst rioting that Sweden has seen in many years.  The following is how the Daily Mail described the riots...

Sweden is reeling after a third night of rioting in largely run-down immigrant areas of the capital Stockholm.

In the last 48 hours violence has spread to at least ten suburbs with mobs of youths torching hundreds of cars and clashing with police.

It is Sweden's worst disorder in years and has shocked the country and provoked a debate on how Sweden is coping with youth unemployment and an influx of immigrants.

#10 An astounding 10 percent of all banking deposits were pulled out of banks in Cyprus during the month of April alone.

#11 Economic growth in India is the slowest that it has been in an entire decade.

#12 Suddenly Australia is experiencing some tremendous economic challenges.  The following quotes are from a recent Zero Hedge article...

-“We’re seeing a much sharper contraction in the Australian economy than we’d anticipated four or five months ago”. Coffey MD, John Douglas. The engineering group has seen its shares, which traded above $4 in 2007, hit 10c last week.

-“By 10am, the Fitness First gym in the city is packed full of brokers who’ve had a gutful of sitting at their desk doing nothing – salary cuts are starting and next it will be jobs” Perth broker

-“Oh mate, the funding market is dead. You are now seeing a few deeply discounted rights issues for those that are reaching desperate levels ….. liquidity has completely disappeared” Perth broker

#13 The financial system in Japan is beginning to spin wildly out of control.  The Japanese stock market has now declined about 15 percent from the peak, and many believe that the yen will continue to get weaker and that interest rates in Japan will start to rise significantly.

#14 Global cash flow is declining at a rate not seen since the last recession.  This indicates that we could be headed for a global credit crunch.

#15 Real wages continue to decline in the United States.  Even though we are being told that the U.S. is experiencing an "economy recovery", real weekly earnings have declined from $297.79 in 2010 to $295.49 in 2011 to $294.83 in 2012.  (The preceding calculation is based on 1982-1984 dollars)

#16 Wall Street is buzzing about the fact that "the Hindenburg Omen" appeared at the end of last week.  So exactly what is "the Hindenburg Omen"?  The following are the criteria that are used to determine whether it has appeared or not...

1. The daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.

2. The smaller of these numbers is greater than or equal to 69 (68.772 is 2.2% of 3126). This is not a rule but more like a checksum. This condition is a function of the 2.2% of the total issues.

3. That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.

4. That the McClellan Oscillator ( a market breadth indicator used to evaluate the rate of money entering or leaving the market and interpretively indicate overbought or oversold conditions of the market)is negative on that same day.

5. That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs).

When the Hindenburg Omen makes an appearance, it supposedly means that the U.S. stock market is likely to experience a serious decline within the next 40 days.

#17 As I wrote about the other day, the SentimenTrader Smart/Dumb Money Index is now the lowest that it has been in more than two years.  That means that lots of "smart money" has been getting out of the market and lots of "dumb money" has been pouring in.

#18 Margin debt on the New York Stock Exchange has set a new all-time high.  The following is from a recent Market Oracle article...

Margin debt—that’s the amount of money borrowed to purchase stocks—on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) reached its all-time high in April. Margin debt on the NYSE registered at $384.3 billion as the key stock indices hit new record-highs. (Source: New York Stock Exchange web site, last accessed May 29, 2013.) The highest margin debt ever reached prior to this was in July of 2007, when it stood just above $381.0 billion. At that time, just like today, the key stock indices were near their peaks and “buy now before it’s too late” was the prominent theme of the day

Whenever margin debt spikes like this, a stock market crash almost always follows.  If you doubt this, just check out the chart in this article.

Wall Street has had a good couple of years, but it has been a "false prosperity" that has been pumped up by reckless money printing by the Federal Reserve.  Just like all of the other stock market bubbles that we have seen in recent years, this one is going to burst too.  And as Marc Faber recently pointed out, this bubble has been particularly beneficial to the wealthy...

The Fed has been flooding the system with money. The problem is the money doesn't flow into the system evenly. It doesn't increase economic activity and asset prices in concert.

Instead, it creates dangerous excesses in countries and asset classes. Money-printing fueled the colossal stock-market bubble of 1999-2000, when the Nasdaq more than doubled, becoming disconnected from economic reality. It fueled the housing bubble, which burst in 2008, and the commodities bubble. Now money is flowing into the high-end asset market - things like stocks, bonds, art, wine, jewelry, and luxury real estate.

Money-printing boosts the economy of the people closest to the money flow. But it doesn't help the worker in Detroit, or the vast majority of the middle class. It leads to a widening wealth gap. The majority loses, and the minority wins.

The fact that the U.S. stock market has set new all-time record high after new all-time record high in recent months means very little.  At this point, the stock market has become completely divorced from economic reality.  When this current bubble bursts, the adjustment is going to be very painful.  Wall Street will likely whine and complain and ask for more bailouts, but they may find that authorities are not nearly as sympathetic this time.

Much of the rest of the world is already experiencing the next major wave of the economic collapse.  Reckless money printing by the Fed and reckless borrowing and spending by the federal government may have delayed the inevitable in the United States for a little while, but those measures have also made our long-term problems even worse.

There was one piece of advice that Ben Bernanke included in his commencement speech to students at Princeton recently that I thought was particularly ironic...

"Don't be afraid to let the drama play out."

Will he take his own advice when the next great financial crisis strikes the United States?

That seems very unlikely. Unfortunately, things are not going to be so easy to fix this next time.

What happened back in 2008 was just a preview. What is coming next is going to absolutely shock the world.

CHINA - Slowing moves to CONTRACTION

CHINA'S MANUFACTURING SECTOR IS CONTRACTING 06-02-13 BI

China's unofficial HSBC manufacturing PMI report is out and its disappointing. The headline number fell to 49.2 from 50.4 a month ago. This was worse than economists' expectation fo 49.6.

A reading below 50 signals contraction.

Here are the key points from Markit:

• Both total new orders and new export orders decline
• Output growth maintained, but at marginal rate
• Purchasing activity falls for the first time in eight months

From HSBC's Hongbin Qu:

“The downward revision of the final HSBC China Manufacturing PMI suggests a marginal weakening of manufacturing activities towards the end of May, thanks to deteriorating domestic demand conditions. With persisting external headwinds, Beijing needs to boost domestic demand to avoid a further deceleration of manufacturing output growth and its negative impact on the labour market. The new leaders should strike a delicate balance between reform and growth.”

On Friday, we learned that China's official PMI report unexpectedly climbed to 50.8 from 50.6 in April. Economists were looking for a decline to 50.0. All of this comes on renewed fears that China is slowing down again.

China's HSBC PMI report has a greater weight toward small and medium sized enterprises, which tend to be more sensitive to economic swings.

GLOBAL PMI - Barely Above Stagnation

Global Manufacturing Is Barely Above Stagnation 06-03-13 BI

The world's biggest economies have published their May manufacturing PMI reports. This is our scorecard.

• In aggregate, global manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.6 in May from 50.4 in April.
• On Friday, we learned that China's official manufacturing PMI unexpectedly climbed to 50.8 in May. However, China's unofficial HSBC PMI fell to 49.6 from 50.4 a month ago.
• PMI numbers from South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam all deteriorated, raising some skepticism about the official Chinese numbers.
• Meanwhile every major region in Europe reported significant improvement.
• PMI: At the beginning of each month, Markit, HSBC, RBC, JP Morgan, and several other major data gathering institutions publish the latest local readings of the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for countries around the world. PMI is one of the best leading indicators of the economy. Each reading is based on surveys of hundreds of companies. Read more about it at Markit. These are not the most closely followed data points. However, the power of the insights is unparalleled. Jim O'Neill, the former Goldman Sachs economist, believes the PMI numbers are among the most reliable economic indicators in the world. BlackRock's Russ Koesterich thinks it's one of the most underrated indicators.

CENTRAL BANKERS - Simply Are Not Going to Tell You (Assuming they Know?)

"Markets Under The Spell Of Monetary Easing" Bank Of International Settlements Finds... Same As "Then" 06-02-13 Zero Hedge

Then....

Ben Bernanke 7/1/2022, CNBC interview:

INTERVIEWER: Tell me, what is the worst-case scenario? We have so many economists coming on our air saying ‘Oh, this is a bubble, and it’s going to burst, and this is going to be a real issue for the economy.’ Some say it could even cause a recession at some point. What is the worst-case scenario if in fact we were to see prices come down substantially across the country?

BERNANKE: Well, I guess I don’t buy your premise. It’s a pretty unlikely possibility. We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So, what I think what is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit. I don’t think it’s gonna drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though.

COMPLETELY WRONG!

Ben Bernanke 10/20/05 – Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, Congress

House prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years. Although speculative activity has increased in some areas, at a national level these price increases largely reflect strong economic fundamentals.

COMPLETELY WRONG!

Ben Bernanke  3/28/07 – Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, Congress

Although the turmoil in the subprime mortgage market has created severe financial problems for many individuals and families, the implications of these developments for the housing market as a whole are less clear…At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained.

COMPLETELY WRONG!

Ben Bernanke 5/17/07 – Remarks before the Federal Reserve Board of Chicago

...we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited, and we do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system. The vast majority of mortgages, including even subprime mortgages, continue to perform well.

COMPLETELY WRONG!

Ben Bernanke 1/10/08 – Response to a Question after Speech in Washington, D.C.

The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.

COMPLETELY WRONG! Hidden by False Reporting

Ben Bernanke 2/27/08 – Testimony before the Senate Banking Committee

I expect there will be some failures [among smaller regional banks]… Among the largest banks, the capital ratios remain good and I don’t anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large, internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system.

COMPLETELY WRONG!

Ben Bernanke 4/2/08 – New York Times article after the collapse of Bear Stearns

“In separate comments, Mr. Bernanke went further than he had in the past, suggesting that the Fed would remain aggressive and vigilant to prevent a repetition of a collapse like that of Bear Stearns, though he said he saw no such problems on the horizon.”

COMPLETELY WRONG! (Lehman??)

Ben Bernanke 6/10/08 – Remarks before a bankers’ conference in Chatham, Massachusetts

The risk that the economy has entered a substantial downturn appears to have diminished over the past month or so.

COMPLETELY WRONG!

Ben Bernanke 7/16/08 – Testimony before House Financial Services Committee

[Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are] adequately capitalized. They are in no danger of failing… [However,] the weakness in market confidence is having real effects as their stock prices fall, and it’s difficult for them to raise capital.

COMPLETELY WRONG! (Forced into Conservatorship)

Two months later:  9/24/08 – Response to a question after JEC testimony… during the TARP debate, two weeks before the Fed initiates its liquidity facility for commercial paper markets

I see the financial markets as already quite fragile. The credit markets aren’t working. Corporations aren’t able to finance themselves through commercial paper. Even if the situation stayed as it did today, that would be a significant drag on the economy.

BEGIINING TO GET IT!!

* * *

... And Now

EDITORS NOTE: The tone of the problems is now worse than above, more concern is being expressed, yet we are told everything is all right by those who didn't see the Financial Crisis coming (or would tell us then either)

Jeremy Stein, February 7, 2021 speech "Overheating in Credit Markets: Origins, Measurement, and Policy Responses"

"[M]y reading of the evidence is that we are seeing a fairly significant pattern of reaching-for-yield behavior emerging in corporate credit....Even if we stipulate that low interest rates are part of the reason for, say, a worrisome boom in one segment of credit markets, they are unlikely to be the whole story....One of the most difficult jobs that central banks face is in dealing with episodes of credit market overheating that pose a potential threat to financial stability/"

Minutes of May 1, 2021 FOMC Meeting

"a few participants expressed concern that conditions in certain U.S. financial markets were becoming too buoyant, pointing to the elevated issuance of bonds by lower-credit-quality firms or of bonds with fewer restrictions on collateral and payment terms (socalled covenant-lite bonds). One participant cautioned that the emergence of financial imbalances could prove difficult for regulators to identify and address, and that it would be appropriate to adjust monetary policy to help guard against risks to financial stability."

May 17, Record of Meeting of the Federal Advisory Council and the Board of Governors, unleased after FOIA requests were submitted

There are potential risks associated with current policy. The Fed’s securities purchases have reduced mortgage yields and, to a lesser extent, Treasury yields. Current low bond yields are disruptive to management of fixed-income portfolios, retirement funds, consumer savings, and retirement planning. They may encourage unsophisticated investors to take on undue risk to achieve better returns. MBS purchases account for over 70% of gross issuance, causing price distortion and volatility in the MBS market. Fixed-income investors worry that attractive mortgage-backed securities are in very tight supply. Higher premium coupons carry too much exposure to prepayments, potentially led by new government support programs for housing. Many are concerned about the Fed’s significant presence in the market. They have underweighted MBS in favor of corporate, municipal, and emerging-market bonds. There is also concern about the possibility of a breakout of inflation, although current inflation risk is not considered unmanageable, and of an unsustainable bubble in equity and fixed-income markets given current prices.

Further, current policy has created systemic financial risks and potential structural problems for banks. Net interest margins are very compressed, making favorable earnings trends difficult and encouraging banks to take on more risk. The Fed’s aggressive purchases of 15-year and 30-year MBS have depressed yields for the “bread and butter” investment in most bank portfolios; banks seeking additional yield have had to turn to investment options with longer durations, lower liquidity, and/or higher credit risk. Finally, the regressive nature of the artificially compressed savings yields creates pent-up demand within bank deposit portfolios; these deposits may be at risk once yields begin to rise and competitive pressures increase.

Uncertainty exists about how markets will reestablish normal valuations when the Fed withdraws from the market. It will likely be difficult to unwind policy accommodation, and the end of monetary easing may be painful for consumers and businesses. Given the Fed’s balance sheet increase of approximately $2.5 trillion since 2008, the Fed may now be perceived as integral to the housing finance system.

BIS Quarterly Review June 2013

Markets under the spell of monetary easing

Risk assets extended their rally as further monetary easing helped market participants tune out signs of a global growth slowdown. The spate of negative economic news between mid-March and mid-April did little to interrupt the rise of equity prices in advanced economies. The growth jitters left more of a dent on commodity prices while emerging market equities continued to underperform.

This new phase of monetary policy accommodation in the major currency areas spilled over to financial markets around the world. The prospect of low yields in core bond markets contributed to investors searching for yield in lower-rated European bonds and emerging market paper as well as in corporate debt. This drove spreads even lower while issuance in riskier credit market segments strengthened. Abundant liquidity and low volatility fostered an environment favouring risk-taking and carry trade activity.

... equity markets were quick to shrug off the uncertainty and extended their gains as investors expected poor fundamentals to be followed by further policy easing.

The S&P 500 posted several all-time highs in rapid succession, first on 11 April and again throughout May.  Similarly, European bourses held up well in the face of negative economic news and political uncertainty.

Throughout this period, the Japanese equity market continued its relentless ascent, fuelled by the prospect of massive monetary stimulus. The rapid gains left equity valuations vulnerable to changes in market sentiment...

Larry Fink, May 2013 CNBC interview: "It just doesn't matter"

EARNINGS ESTIMATES - PE Expansion Hides Risk and is itself Unjustified

Counterintuitive Stock Market Trend 06-03-13 BI

When stock prices rise faster than earnings, you are witnessing something called earnings multiple expansion. In other words, stocks are getting more expensive. Earnings multiples have expanded and contracted since the beginning of the stock market. Unfortunately, if you have been a stock market bear lately banking on falling earnings growth expectations, then your prediction has only been half right.

In a new report, FactSet's John Butters takes a brief look at evolving Q2 earnings expectations, which have only been coming down for months.

"The Q2 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the estimates for all 500 companies in the index) has dropped 3.4% (to $26.52 from $27.45) since March 31," writes Butters.

This has occurred as stocks have only been going up. And according to Butters, this dynamic is not that unusual:

Is it unusual for the earnings estimate for the index to decline and the value of the index to increase during the first two months of a quarter?

In recent quarters, it has not been unusual for the value of the index to increase at the same time analysts are trimming earnings estimates for the same quarter. In fact, it has occurred in 9 of the past 20 quarters (including Q2 2013). During these nine quarters, the average decrease in the bottom-up EPS during the first two months of the quarters has been 4.7%, while the average increase in the value of the index during the first two months of the quarter has been 6.8%.

Some warn that this trend of stock prices rallying with no earnings growth is getting dangerous for investors. But for now, it'll continue to make the bears look like fools. Here's the chart from FactSet's John Butters:

FUNDAMENTALS - Cash Flow and CAPEX

Show Me The Money Flow: Global Free Cash Flow And Capital Spending Contract To 2010 Levels 06-02-13 Zero Hedge

In a world in which glaringly misreporting factual news no longer generates much more than a shrug, the latest lie reported so often by the mainstream media and various 'expert' pundits it has almost become "the truth", is that that the key missing link to a global recovery - free cash flow, and its derivative, capital expenditures - are now once more rising. After all, corporations can not grow revenue (as confirmed by the most recent reported quarterly earnings) without investing in themselves, and they can't spend for maintenance or growth unless they generate Free Cash Flow: this is simple finance 101. So in order to put this pervasive lie to rest, we present the following chart showing free cash flow and Capex in the developed "G-4" region as a % of world GDP, which have now round-tripped back to 2010 levels, and ask a simple question: what growth?

PS. Yes, it is the Fed's fault.

PATTERNS - Emerging Market Interest Rebounding

Hedge Funds Are Cranking Up Their Bets On Emerging Markets 06-02-13 BofA Merrill Lynch -Stephen Suttmeier via BI

Emerging market (EM) assets – currencies, debt, and stocks – all had a pretty terrible month in May. Poor performance in emerging markets was so pronounced during the month of May alone that several Wall Street shops are now out with big calls declaring the "end of the bull market."

However, despite the wave of negative sentiment that has hit emerging markets, macro hedge funds were in there buying up EM last month. "Based on our exposure analysis, Macros bought EM exposure to the highest since October 2011, while maintaining their net long positions in [Europe, Australasia, and the Far East]," writes BofA Merrill Lynch analyst Stephen Suttmeier in the investment bank's latest Hedge Fund Monitor report. It looks like either the macro funds are taking a bath on their increased exposure to EM, or they see the latest movements in the market as a good buying opportunity.

BILDERBERG MEETING - The Upper Crust

Defintion of Upper Crust: "A bunch of crumbs held together with a little dough!"

The Full List Of 2013's Bilderberg Attendees 06-03-13 Zero Hedge

The only thing more ominous for the world than a Hindenburg Omen sighting is a Bilderberg Group meeting. The concentration of politicians and business leaders has meant the organisation, founded at the Bilderberg Hotel near Arnhem in 1954, has faced accusations of secrecy. Meetings take place behind closed doors, with a ban on journalists. We suspect the agenda (how the US and Europe can promote growth, the way 'big data' is changing 'almost everything', the challenges facing the continent of Africa, and the threat of cyber warfare) has been somewhat re-arranged as market volatility picks up and the status quo begins to quake once again.  The annual gathering of the royalty, statesmen, and business leaders, conspiratorially believed to run the world (snubbing their Illuminati peers and Freemason fellows), will take place this week at the Grove Hotel in London, England. The Telegraph provides the full list of attendees below - for those autogrpah seekers - including Britain's George Osborne, US' Henry Kissinger, Peter Sutherland (the chairman of Goldman Sachs), the Fed's Kevin Warsh, Jeff Bezos?, Peter Thiel, Italy's Mario Monti, and Spain's de Guindos.

Bilderberg delegates in full

• Chairman: Henri de Castries, Chairman and CEO, AXA Group
• Paul M. Achleitner, Chairman of the Supervisory Board, Deutsche Bank AG
• Josef Ackermann, Chairman of the Board, Zurich Insurance Group Ltd
• Marcus Agius, Former Chairman, Barclays plc
• Helen Alexander, Chairman, UBM plc
• Roger C. Altman, Executive Chairman, Evercore Partners
• Matti Apunen, Director, Finnish Business and Policy Forum EVA
• Susan Athey, Professor of Economics, Stanford Graduate School of Business
• Asli Aydintasbas, Columnist, Milliyet Newspaper
• Ali Babacan, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister for Economic and Financial Affairs
• Ed Balls, Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer
• Francisco Pinto Balsemão, Chairman and CEO, IMPRESA
• Nicolas Barré, Managing Editor, Les Echos
• José Manuel Barroso, President, European Commission
• Nicolas Baverez, Partner, Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP
• Olivier de Bavinchove, Commander, Eurocorps
• John Bell, Regius Professor of Medicine, University of Oxford
• Franco Bernabè, Chairman and CEO, Telecom Italia S.p.A.
• Jeff Bezos, Founder and CEO, Amazon.com
• Carl Bildt, Swedish Minister for Foreign Affairs
• Anders Borg, Swedish Minister for Finance
• Jean François van Boxmeer, CEO, Heineken
• Svein Richard Brandtzæg, President and CEO, Norsk Hydro ASA
• Oscar Bronner, Publisher, Der Standard Medienwelt
• Peter Carrington, Former Honorary Chairman, Bilderberg Meetings
• Juan Luis Cebrián, Executive Chairman, Grupo PRISA
• Edmund Clark, President and CEO, TD Bank Group
• Kenneth Clarke, Cabinet Minister
• Bjarne Corydon, Danish Minister of Finance
• Sherard Cowper-Coles, Business Development Director, International, BAE Systems plc
• Enrico Cucchiani, CEO, Intesa Sanpaolo SpA
• Etienne Davignon, Belgian Minister of State; Former Chairman, Bilderberg Meetings
• Ian Davis, Senior Partner Emeritus, McKinsey & Company
• Robbert H. Dijkgraaf, Director and Leon Levy Professor, Institute for Advanced Study
• Haluk Dinçer, President, Retail and Insurance Group, Sabanci Holding A.S.
• Robert Dudley, Group Chief Executive, BP plc
• Nicholas N. Eberstadt, Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy, American Enterprise Institute
• Espen Barth Eide, Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs
• Börje Ekholm, President and CEO, Investor AB
• Thomas Enders, CEO, EADS
• J. Michael Evans, Vice Chairman, Goldman Sachs & Co.
• Ulrik Federspiel, Executive Vice President, Haldor Topsøe A/S
• Martin S.Feldstein, Professor of Economics, Harvard University; President Emeritus, NBER
• François Fillon, Former French Prime Minister
• Mark C. Fishman, President, Novartis Institutes for BioMedical Research
• Douglas J. Flint, Group Chairman, HSBC Holdings plc
• Paul Gallagher, Senior Counsel
• Timothy F Geithner, Former Secretary of the Treasury
• Michael Gfoeller, US Political Consultant
• Donald E. Graham, Chairman and CEO, The Washington Post Company
• Ulrich Grillo, CEO, Grillo-Werke AG
• Lilli Gruber, Journalist - Anchorwoman, La 7 TV
• Luis de Guindos, Spanish Minister of Economy and Competitiveness
• Stuart Gulliver, Group Chief Executive, HSBC Holdings plc
• Felix Gutzwiller, Member of the Swiss Council of States
• Victor Halberstadt, Professor of Economics, Leiden University; Former Honorary Secretary General of Bilderberg Meetings
• Olli Heinonen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School of Government
• Simon Henry, CFO, Royal Dutch Shell plc
• Paul Hermelin, Chairman and CEO, Capgemini Group
• Pablo Isla, Chairman and CEO, Inditex Group
• Kenneth M. Jacobs, Chairman and CEO, Lazard
• James A. Johnson, Chairman, Johnson Capital Partners
• Thomas J. Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board, Swiss National Bank
• Vernon E. Jordan, Jr., Managing Director, Lazard Freres & Co. LLC
• Robert D. Kaplan, Chief Geopolitical Analyst, Stratfor
• Alex Karp, Founder and CEO, Palantir Technologies
• John Kerr, Independent Member, House of Lords
• Henry A. Kissinger, Chairman, Kissinger Associates, Inc.
• Klaus Kleinfeld, Chairman and CEO, Alcoa
• Klaas H.W. Knot, President, De Nederlandsche Bank
• Mustafa V Koç,. Chairman, Koç Holding A.S.
• Roland Koch, CEO, Bilfinger SE
• Henry R. Kravis, Co-Chairman and Co-CEO, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.
• Marie-Josée Kravis, Senior Fellow and Vice Chair, Hudson Institute
• André Kudelski, Chairman and CEO, Kudelski Group
• Ulysses Kyriacopoulos, Chairman, S&B Industrial Minerals S.A.
• Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
• J. Kurt Lauk, Chairman of the Economic Council to the CDU, Berlin
• Lawrence Lessig, Roy L. Furman Professor of Law and Leadership, Harvard Law School
• Thomas Leysen, Chairman of the Board of Directors, KBC Group
• Christian Lindner, Party Leader, Free Democratic Party (FDP NRW)
• Stefan Löfven, Party Leader, Social Democratic Party (SAP)
• Peter Löscher, President and CEO, Siemens AG
• Peter Mandelson, Chairman, Global Counsel; Chairman, Lazard International
• Jessica T. Mathews, President, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
• Frank McKenna, Chair, Brookfield Asset Management
• John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist
• Thierry de Montbrial, President, French Institute for International Relations
• Mario Monti, Former Italian Prime Minister
• Craig J. Mundie, Senior Advisor to the CEO, Microsoft Corporation
• Alberto Nagel, CEO, Mediobanca
• H.R.H. Princess Beatrix of The Netherlands
• Andrew Y.Ng, Co-Founder, Coursera
• Jorma Ollila, Chairman, Royal Dutch Shell, plc
• David Omand, Visiting Professor, King's College London
• George Osborne, Chancellor of the Exchequer
• Emanuele Ottolenghi, Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
• Soli Özel, Senior Lecturer, Kadir Has University; Columnist, Habertürk Newspaper
• Alexis Papahelas, Executive Editor, Kathimerini Newspaper
• Safak Pavey, Turkish MP
• Valérie Pécresse, French MP
• Richard N. Perle, Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute
• David H. Petraeus, General, U.S. Army (Retired)
• Paulo Portas, Portugal Minister of State and Foreign Affairs
• J. Robert S Prichard, Chair, Torys LLP
• Viviane Reding, Vice President and Commissioner for Justice, Fundamental Rights and Citizenship, European Commission
• Heather M. Reisman, CEO, Indigo Books & Music Inc.
• Hélène Rey, Professor of Economics, London Business School
• Simon Robertson, Partner, Robertson Robey Associates LLP; Deputy Chairman, HSBC Holdings
• Gianfelice Rocca, Chairman,Techint Group
• Jacek Rostowski, Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister
• Robert E. Rubin, Co-Chairman, Council on Foreign Relations; Former Secretary of the Treasury
• Mark Rutte, Dutch Prime Minister
• Andreas Schieder, Austrian State Secretary of Finance
• Eric E. Schmidt, Executive Chairman, Google Inc.
• Rudolf Scholten, Member of the Board of Executive Directors, Oesterreichische Kontrollbank AG
• António José Seguro, Secretary General, Portuguese Socialist Party
• Jean-Dominique Senard, CEO, Michelin Group
• Kristin Skogen Lund, Director General, Confederation of Norwegian Enterprise
• Anne-Marie Slaughter, Bert G. Kerstetter '66 University Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Princeton University
• Peter D. Sutherland, Chairman, Goldman Sachs International
• Martin Taylor, Former Chairman, Syngenta AG
• Tidjane Thiam, Group CEO, Prudential plc
• Peter A. Thiel, President, Thiel Capital
• Craig B. Thompson, President and CEO, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center
• Jakob Haldor Topsøe, Partner, AMBROX Capital A/S
• Jutta Urpilainen, Finnish Minister of Finance
• Daniel L. Vasella, Honorary Chairman, Novartis AG
• Peter R. Voser, CEO, Royal Dutch Shell plc
• Brad Wall, Premier of Saskatchewan Province, Canada
• Jacob Wallenberg, Chairman, Investor AB
• Kevin Warsh, Distinguished Visiting Fellow, The Hoover Institution, Stanford University
• Galen G.Weston, Executive Chairman, Loblaw Companies Limited
• Baroness Williams of Crosby, Member, House of Lords
• Martin H. Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator, The Financial Times
• James D. Wolfensohn, Chairman and CEO, Wolfensohn and Company
• David Wright, Vice Chairman, Barclays plc
• Robert B. Zoellick, Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics

via the Telegraph

CRONY CAPITALISM - It Pays to have Friends in High Places

Taxing for some 05-22-13 Economist

THE pressure on tax-avoiders is mounting. In the latest episode Tim Cook, Apple’s boss, was called before a Senate subcommittee to explain why the tech giant had paid no tax on $74 billion of its profits over the past four years—though it has done nothing illegal. This comes at a time when America's corporate profits are at a record high, thanks to

1. the swift sacking of workers at the start of the recession,
2. lower interest expenses, and
3. the fact that cheap labour in emerging markets has eroded union power, allowing firms to move production offshore and defy demands for pay rises. 

Meanwhile corporation tax, which makes up 10% of the taxman’s total haul (down from about a third in the 1950s) has plummeted. An increase in businesses structuring themselves as partnerships and "S" corporations, which subject profits to individual rather than corporate income tax, is in part to blame.

But tax havens are also culprits, as they lower their tax levels to lure in bigger firms.