NEW SERIES RELEASE MONETARY MALPRACTICE AVAILABLE NOW MONETARY MALPRACTICE: Deceptions, Distortions and Delusions MONETARY MALPRACTICE: Moral Malady MONETARY MALPRACTICE: Dysfunctional Markets
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Mon. July 8th , 2013 |
THE COMING CHINA CRISIS SPECIAL GUEST : BERT DOHMEN Author & Publisher of the Wellington Letter 50 Minutes with 46 Slides
What Are Tipping Poinits? |
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Reading the right books? >> Click to Browse << We have analyzed & included Book Review- Five Thumbs Up
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"BEST OF THE WEEK " |
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Labels & Tags | TIPPING POINT or 2013 THESIS THEME |
HOTTEST TIPPING POINTS |
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We post throughout the day as we do our Investment Research for: LONGWave - UnderTheLens - Macro Analytics |
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THE FEDERAL RESERVE SIMPLY CANNOT SLOW ("TAPER") WITHOUT COMPLETELY DE-STABILIZING MARKETS AND CAUSING A GLOBAL "COLLATERAL CONTAGION' THIS IS WHAT FAILED MONETARY MALPRACTCE RESULTS IN THIS IS WHERE A SOCIETY THAT WILL NOT TOLERATE TAKING THE REQUIRED MEDICINE EVENTUALLY LEADS.
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EARNINGS - Negative Guidance Worst Since Early 2012 Global Earnings Downgrades Worst In 12 Months 07-05-13 Citi Research via ZH As we head into earnings season in the US (amid hopeful margin expansion), the big picture for earnings remains bleak. Markets are back close to highs as negative guidance is piling up and as Citi notes, their global earnings revision index is at its worst since early July 2012. If the Fed is heading towards a Taper then this fundamental fear may once again become relevant - or hope-fueled multiple expansion will fill that gap.
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07-08-13 | EARNIINGS Q2 |
ANALYTICS |
EARNINGS - Q2 EPS Estimates Because Fundamentals Matter? 07-07-13 Zero Hedge Presented with little comment aside to note that US equities are once again resurgent near all-time highs fully supported by err... umm... fundamentals. Bottom-Up? Top-Down? Charts: Bloomberg and @Not_Jim_Cramer |
07-08-13 | EARNINGS | ANALYTICS |
RISK - Hayman Capital Dramatically Reduces Risk Kyle Bass Hunkers Down: "We Dramatically Reduce Portfolio Risk" 07-04-13 Hayman Capital via ZH Kyle Bass goes to Japan and finds all as expected...
And also learns something new, if not unexpected...
But perhaps most interesting are Bass' thoughts on China:
In short, Bass is once again hunkering down. Full Hayman Capital investor letter below, courtesy of Valuewalk: |
07-08-13 | RISK CANARIES |
ANALYTICS |
PATTERNS - An Artificial Market Guess What The Fair Value Of The S&P Is 07-04-13 Zero Hedge On the off chance there is still any confusion about what would happen should the Fed "step away"...
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07-08-13 | PATTERNS
US MONETARY |
CENTRAL BANKS |
EARNINGS REVISIONS - Disconnected From Steepening Treasury Term Structure A Tale Of Two Growth Outlooks 07-07-13 Bloomberg Charts via ZH Just over a month ago, global earnings revisions were on the upswing (admittedly off markedly low levels); since then they have turned sharply lower to the worst levels in a year (based on Citi's Global Earnings Revision index - ERI). Critically though, as 'hope' is pinned on a steepening term structure as indicative of 'growth' and happy times ahead for stocks, the ERI has dramatically diverged from the yield curve. As Citi notes, it is evident that analysts are not at all convinced about the improvement in the growth outlook that this steeper curve has historically suggested. What is perhaps more worrisome for the "it's different this time" crowd is that the last time we saw this kind of dramatic divergence between global earnings and the US term structure was in the run-up to Lehman - and that did not end well... Global earnings revisions typically track the US Treasury term structure very closely - both implicitly suggesting growth or no growth expectations... But in recent weeks, the steepening of the US Treasury curve (growth - whether due to Fed Taper discussions explicitly reducing the flow or implicitly by the Taper meaning the Fed is more optimistic about the future - which has never ended well) has been entirely dismissed by the analyst community globally as earnings revisions have been slashed to their lowest in a year! The last time we saw this kind of divergence was in September 2008... And that did not end well... Charts: Bloomberg |
07-08-13 | PATTERNS
DRIVERS |
CENTRAL BANKS |
MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - July 7th - July 13th |
RISK REVERSAL | 1 | ||
JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION | 2 | ||
BOND BUBBLE | 3 | ||
EU BANKING CRISIS |
4 |
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SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS [Euope Crisis Tracker] | 5 | ||
CHINA BUBBLE | 6 | ||
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MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week | |||
GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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Tipping Points Life Cycle - Explained
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