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Mon. September 23rd , 2013 |
THE MACRO ANALYTICS - A Technical Update What Are Tipping Poinits? |
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CRACKUP BOOM - More Telltales >> Venezuela |
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Merkel Wins Federal Election But Coalition Partner Below Bundestag Threshold: Final Outcome Too Close To Call 09-22-13 Zero Hedge While the outcome of the election from the perspective of "the grand coalition" is still too close to call, Exit polls make it clear that Merkels CDU/CSU party has won the election with 42.5% of the vote. However, there are some very interesting results that could be a problem for Europe's 'program-based' nations:
So the anti-Euro party has more votes (nearly the 5% required to enter the Bundestag) than Merkel's current coalition partner FDP party which creates major uncertainty over the forming of a coalition (which took 3 weeks in 2005) - which as we noted seemed to priced into Greek stocks on Friday. The pirate party is projected to have 2.5% of the vote. If the anti-Euro AfD enters the parliaments, a "Grand Coalition" appears inevitable. However, if it does not cross the 5% threshold, Merkel may end up with an absolute majority in the Bundestag and will not nead a coalition partner. The results so far at 1810 German time... |
09-23-13 | REGIONAL GERMANY | GLOBAL MACRO |
MONETARY EXPANSION - Extremely Difficult to Stop Once Started Gold And Monetary Inflation Prospects 09-22-13 Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com On Wednesday last the Fed surprised most people by deciding not to taper. What is not generally appreciated is that once a central bank starts to use monetary expansion as a cure-all it is extremely difficult for it to stop. This is the basic reason the Fed has not pursued the idea, and why it most probably never will.That is a strong statement. But consider this: Paul Volcker faced this same dilemma in 1979, when he was appointed Chairman of the Fed. In raising interest rates to choke off inflation he had two things going for him that his successor has not: rising inflation was already over 10% so was an obvious priority, and importantly private sector debt-to-GDP was at a far lower level than today. It was a tough decision at the time to nearly double interest rates. Today, with official inflation low and private sector indebtedness high it would be extremely difficult. Until official inflation picks up, it is far more comforting to pretend it won’t be an issue, which reasonably describes the Fed’s approach. Instead it is targeting unemployment rates, on the basis that price inflation is tied to capacity utilisation, which in turn is tied to employment. One thing is certain in life, besides death and taxes, and that is if you expand the quantity of money prices eventually rise; or more accurately the purchasing power of debased money falls. The problem is how to measure currency debasement, and this has been a topic of heated debate since fiat currencies first developed. This has led me to propose a new measure of money, which at James Turk’s suggestion I am calling the Fiat Money Quantity (FMQ). The purpose is to gives us a measure of fiat money that enables us to assess the danger of currency hyperinflation. I shall be publishing a paper on this shortly explaining the methodology. The principle behind it is to signal deviations from the long-term trend of currency growth to alert us to both monetary crises and excessive inflation. The approach is to unwind the historic progression from full gold convertibility to the current state of no convertibility. Our gold was first deposited with our banks, and then from there with the central bank. In return for our gold deposits we have been issued cash notes and coin and credits in the form of deposits at the bank, and our bank equally has deposits at the central bank. The FMQ is therefore comprised of the sum of cash and coin, plus all accessible deposits, plus our bank’s deposits held at the central bank. This for the US dollar is illustrated in the chart below. The dotted line is the long-term exponential trend rate, and it is immediately obvious that the FMQ is now hyper-inflating. It currently requires a $3.6 trillion contraction of deposits to return this measure of currency quantity back to trend. This accurately sums up the problem facing the Fed. We must understand they are in an almost impossible position that dates back to their monetary response to the banking crisis. Not even Paul Volcker could have got us out of this one. Once the addiction to weak money hits this pace there is no solution without threatening to bring down the whole system. |
09-23-13 | MACRO MONETARY | CENTRAL BANKS |
VENEZUELA - Shortages & Hyperinflation Venezuela Seizes Toilet Paper Factory Amid Fears Of US Sabotage 09-22-13 Zero Hedge The Venezuelan government is in a bind. They realize that 'the people' will stand-by idly as the nation's currency is devalued, as inflation soars, and blackouts continue as food shortages grow...(and the stock market soars) but take away a critical personal care item and the riots will begin. As Yahoo Maktoob reports, Venezuela's leftist government said Saturday it temporarily seized a major toilet paper factory hoping that it can end troublesome shortages of the staple personal care item. "The temporary occupation of [the toilet-paper manufacturing plant] is aimed at verifying that toilet paper industry production, marketing and distribution" are all in line with state policies, Vice President Jorge Arreaza said on Twitter, without indicating how long the takeover would last. This action follows 'nationalization' of large farms amid President Maduro's claims that the White House is plotting the "collapse" of his government next month by sabotaging food, electricity and fuel supplies. But, of course as we noted previously, none of that matters - as the Venezuelan stock market is surging (which, if American talking heads are to be believed judging from thei reaction to US equity markets) must mean the country is doing great... The Caracas Stock Index is +270% YTD... Via Yahoo Maktoob,
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09-23-13 | VENEZUELA MONETARY MACRO HYPER- INFLATION |
CENTRAL BANKS |
MONETARY POLICY - Below the Event Horizon The Fed's "Renormalization" Shock (All 600 bps Of It) 09-21-13 Barclays via ZH Bernanke's actions this week make it very clear that between "financial conditions" and the fragility of growth, the US is incapable of surviving without ZIRP and QE (for now). As Barclays notes, ultimately, normalisation should proceed according to a timeline that does not threaten recovery, yet will result in a neutral monetary policy by the time the economy reaches full capacity and the desired inflation rate. However, there are many uncertainties along this path. Chairman Bernanke has said it might take "two or three years after 2016" to reach a 4% fed funds rate (the FOMC’s ‘longer-run’ expectation), but, as the disturbing chart below highlights, even an adjustment to 2.0% (the median FOMC expectation for December 2016) entails formidable adjustment of monetary policy once allowance is made for the tapering of QE. Given we now know that 'tapering is tightening', the implicit rate hike from a reduction in QE will mean a 600bps tightening in financial conditions. Do you believe in miracles? There is a wide variation of econometric estimates of the impact of LSAP, but one rule of thumb is that net purchases of $800bn have, very approximately, a similar impact on US GDP to a 100bp reduction in the fed funds rate. This implies that the Fed’s cumulative LSAP (set to approach $3.0trn by Q1 2014) might be considered equivalent to lowering the fed funds target rate by 370bp. We have tried to represent this in terms of a negative equivalent fed funds rate in the chart above, which illustrates that a return to ‘normality’ in terms of the Fed’s balance sheet and reaching even a 2-2.5% fed funds rate would represent a formidable tightening of US monetary conditions. Simply put - how do you think our easy-money, share-buying-back, leverage at all-time highs corporations will cope with a 600bps rise in the cost of capital over the next three years? Source: Barclays |
09-23-13 | MONETARY MACRO HYPER- INFLATION |
CENTRAL BANKS |
MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - September 22nd - September 28th |
RISK REVERSAL | 1 | ||
JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION | 2 | ||
BOND BUBBLE | 3 | ||
EU BANKING CRISIS |
4 |
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SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS [Euope Crisis Tracker] | 5 | ||
CHINA BUBBLE | 6 | ||
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MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week | |||
GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES | |||
Market Analytics | |||
TECHNICALS & MARKET ANALYTICS |
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COMMODITY CORNER - HARD ASSETS | PORTFOLIO | ||
PRIVATE EQUITY - REAL ASSETS | PORTFOLIO | ||
AGRI-COMPLEX | PORTFOLIO | ||
SECURITY-SURVEILANCE COMPLEX | PORTFOLIO | ||
THESIS Themes | |||
2013 - STATISM |
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2012 - FINANCIAL REPRESSION |
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2011 - BEGGAR-THY-NEIGHBOR -- CURRENCY WARS |
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2010 - EXTEN D & PRETEND |
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THEMES | |||
CORPORATOCRACY - CRONY CAPITALSIM | |||
GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE | |||
SOCIAL UNREST |
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CENTRAL PLANNING |
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STANDARD OF LIVING |
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CORRUPTION & MALFEASANCE | |||
NATURE OF WORK | |||
CATALYSTS - FEAR & GREED | |||
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Tipping Points Life Cycle - Explained
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