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Weekend September 28th , 2013 |
THE MACRO ANALYTICS - A Technical Update What Are Tipping Poinits? |
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CURRENCY CARTEL IN TOTAL CONTROL (US$, Euro, Yen, Pound) Trading in foreign-exchange markets averaged $5.3 trillion a day in April 2013, reports the BIS in its latest “Triennial Central Bank Survey”. This was up from $4 trillion in 2010 and $3.3 trillion in 2007. The US dollar was the dominant currency: 87% of deals contained the dollar on one side. The euro, the second-most-traded currency, was involved in 33% of deals, down from 39% in April 2010. The third-most-traded currency, featuring in 23% of all trades, was the Japanese yen; its market share has risen by four percentage points since the previous survey. Several emerging-market currencies rose sharply in global importance. The Mexican peso and Chinese renminbi made it into the top ten for the first time. |
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LIQUIDITY TRAP - Money Is No Longer Quite as Free August 2013 August 2012 INFLATION (Non Consumer) INSUFFICENT Fed Target is 2% This is Keeping the Fed Up at Night
FED BALANCE SHEET versus GOVERNMENT DEBT INSTRUMENTS FED HAS LOST CONTROL
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09-28-13 | US MONETARY | 1 - Risk Reversal |
EU - Lending Volumes Collapse Forget Recovery: This Is What Total European Monetary Collapse Looks Like 09-26-13 Goldman via ZH Presented without commentary (if confused - wink wink Mario Draghi - Ray Dalio will explain). |
09-27-13 | EU MONETARY |
4- EU Banking Crisis |
ECB - Monetary transmission mechanisms in Europe are completely broken Mario Draghi's Nightmare Gets Worse: European Loans Decline At Record Rate 09-26-13 Zero Hedge Back in July we posted "What Keeps Mario Draghi Up At Night, And Why The European Depression Has A Ways To Go" in which we presented "Europe's annual change in M3, alongside the far more important bank lending to the Euro area private sector. It is the latter which [then had] just dipped to a record low, indicating once more that Europe's monetary transmission mechanism is not only clogged up (a rising M3 should have a favorable impact here) but hopelessly broken. In other words, it is the brown line in the chart below that is what is giving the ECB chairman nightmares, and is leading to such secondary effects as record high unemployment and negative GDP growth virtually across the entire Eurozone." Needless to say, in a Keynesian a world in which credit growth and only credit growth leads to economic growth (see Ray Dalio for more), and in which the ECB is a net extractor of liquidity (and thus debt), this means that the European depression will simply get worse as soon as the current episode of foreign capital flows tapers out and the "current account" injectors realize that it was nothing but another case of greater fool risk-chasing in Europe. Moments ago Mario Draghi's nightmare just got worse following a release by the ECB overnight that loans to the private sector dropped 2 percent from a year earlier. That’s 16th monthly decline and the biggest since the start of the single currency in 1999. "The data shows a depressing picture for the credit market," said Annalisa Piazza, an analyst at Newedge Group in London. "Although the ECB made clear that the ECB cannot do much to boost credit to the corporate sector, we expect the current picture for loans to remain one of the key reasons behind expectations of a prolonged period of accommodation." And here is how the chart that keeps Mario Draghi up at night looks like for today's update: SocGen's commetary:
And some more nightmare charts from Goldman: Basically, all monetary transmission mechanisms in Europe are completely broken, which in turn feeds the feedback loop of the deleveraging depression, leading to even less demand for loans, more deleveraging by banks ad lib. But at least the ECB has its imaginary, non-existant OMT to keep everyone at bay, for now, or else all hell breaks loose if and when market participants dare to finally pull their heads out of the sand (or other less conveient locations). |
09-27-13 | EU MONETARY |
4- EU Banking Crisis |
INEQUALITY - The Stunning Truth About Inequality In America The Stunning Truth About Inequality In America 09-26-13 Zero Hedge Talk about inequality has been in the news recently, but you won’t believe what’s really happening in America today:
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09-27-13 | US SENTIMENT | 22 - Public Sentiment & Confidence |
RISK - Markets Sending Strong Signals 10 Reasons The Market Will (Or Won't) Crash 09-26-13 Lance Roberts of Street Talk Live blog, Douglas McIntyre, of 24/7 Wall Street, recently wrote an article discussing the 10 reasons why the market will, or won't, crash. The problem is that the view presented is terribly myopic which creates a misleading discussion of the current market environment. My notations are in order to balance the discussion accordingly:
The reason that when markets push to new highs that analysts begin to discuss the potential for the next crash is simply because every crash in history has occurred from market highs. The chart below shows the history of the S&P 500 going back to 1871. Each major "crash" has occurred from market peaks when valuations, based on trailing 12 months reported earnings, exceeded 20x earnings.
Once again a quick study of history will show that when valuations exceed 20x earnings that forward returns from investments begin to fall. Furthermore, every major reversion has come from levels of excess valuation. The problem with the statement above is that "earnings definitions" have not changed in regards to the only measure that truly matters which is trailing reported earnings. All other measures, such as forward operating and pro-forma earnings, are extremely faulty measures used to justify owning overvalued assets by Wall Street looking to create fees and revenues and offload those same assets to the retail market.
The reason that the market has risen well in excess of the underlying economic activity is summed up with just two words: Quantitative Easing. Without the interventions by the Federal Reserve it is not only very likely that the current market would be much lower in price but it is extremely likely that the U.S. would have already experienced a secondary recession.
Forward earnings, as stated above, is an extremely poor indicator of future performance. However, the fact the forward earnings forecasts have continued to fall, so that companies can "beat" their respective earnings estimates, shows the fault in using "guesses" about future profitability in trying to justify owning overvalued assets in the first place.
First of all a government "shut down" is unlikely as the Republican Party has little "stomach" for the fallout from such an event. However, even if a "shut down" occurs it will only be temporary and will not result in a "default" of payment. It could certainly roil the overvalued and extended markets but since the Fed is maintaining its bond purchases to offset just such a risk, as I recently discussed, a crash from this scenario is unlikely.
Saying that there will not be a new recession is just naive and very short sighted. Recessions are part of the economic cycle and are inevitable. As shown in both charts above recessions occur roughly every 4-5 years on average. Considering that we are already more than 4 years into the current economic recovery we are likely closer to the next recession than not. As far as the stock market goes - the average drawdown during a recession has been in excess of 30%. Ignoring this reality is perilous to your long term returns.
I am not sure what the writer considers to be an oil spike but oil prices have jumped from close to $90 a barrel at the beginning of this year to a high of almost $110 this past summer. That jump has impacted consumer spending which has been in a steady decline on an annualized basis. High oil prices lead to higher costs of living which reduces disposable personal incomes which has already been under pressure from weak economic growth.
I do agree with this point. The Chinese economy is unlikely to collapse. However, the real growth rate of the economy is far less robust than what the Chinese government reports. The U.S. reports the 1st estimate of GDP 28 days after the end of the quarter. It is subsequently revised two more times and then revised one final time the following year. The Chinese government reports GDP 15 days after the end of the quarter and is never revised. How reliable do you really think the data is? Of course, this is the benefit of a running a centrally controlled economy.
No argument here.
Setting aside the argument of a "conspiracy" for a moment the reality is that these "dark pools" do pose a serious threat to the overall market. Many of these pools are heavily leveraged and run by algorithmic programs. The problem is that when the market corrects enough to trigger program selling the resultant sell off, combined with margin calls, could lead to a very fast "feeding frenzy" of selling. The volatility of the market since 2009 has risen with the continued rise in program trading and, unfortunately, when the programs begin to "run in reverse" the speed and depth of the correction is likely to take most individuals by surprise.
The market will eventually correct as it always does - it is part of the market cycle. This is why managing portfolio risk is so critically important - if you don't sell high, you cannot buy low. As I stated in "5 Questions Every Market Bull Must Answer:" "Being bullish on the market in the short term is fine - you should be. The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet will continue to push stocks higher as long as no other crisis presents itself. However, the problem is that a crisis, which is ALWAYS unexpected, inevitably will trigger a reversion back to the fundamentals. ...with margin debt at historically high levels when the 'herd' begins to turn it will not be a slow and methodical process but rather a stampede with little regard to valuation or fundamental measures. As prices decline it will trigger margin calls which will induce more indiscriminate selling. The vicious cycle will repeat until margin levels are cleared and selling is exhausted. The reality is that the stock market is extremely vulnerable to a sharp correction. Currently, complacency is near record levels and no one sees a severe market retracement as a possibility. The common belief is that there is 'no bubble' in assets and the Federal Reserve has everything under control. Take a moment to compare what you have heard, and read, with the questions presented here. Draw your own conclusions and invest appropriately." |
09-27-13 | PATTERNS | ANALYTICS |
THESIS & THEMES | |||
FINANCIAL REPRESSION - Is Now A Global Strategy Cyprus-Style Wealth Confiscation Is Starting All Over The World 09-26-13 Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog via ZH As we warned two years ago, "the muddle through has failed... and there may only be painful ways out of this." Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog, Now that "bail-ins" have become accepted practice all over the planet, no bank account and no pension fund will ever be 100% safe again. In fact, Cyprus-style wealth confiscation is already starting to happen all around the world. As you will read about below, private pension funds were just raided by the government in Poland, and a "bail-in" is being organized for one of the largest banks in Italy. Unfortunately, this is just the beginning. The precedent that was set in Cyprus is being used as a template for establishing bail-in procedures in New Zealand, Canada and all over Europe. It is only a matter of time before we see this exact same type of thing happen in the United States as well. From now on, anyone that keeps a large amount of money in any single bank account or retirement fund is being incredibly foolish. Let's take a look at a few of the examples of how Cyprus-style wealth confiscation is now moving forward all over the globe... Poland For years, there have been rumors that someday the U.S. government would raid private pension funds. Well, in Poland it just happened. According to Reuters, private pension funds were raided in order to reduce the size of the government debt...
The Polish government is doing the best that it can to make this sound like some sort of complicated legal maneuver, but the truth is that what they have done is stolen private assets without giving any compensation in return...
Iceland For years, Iceland has been applauded for how they handled the last financial crisis. But now it is being proposed that the "blanket guarantee" that currently applies to all bank accounts should be reduced to 100,000 euros. Will this open the door for "haircuts" to be applied to bank account balances above that amount?...
Europe European finance ministers have agreed to a plan that would make "bail-ins" the standard procedure for rescuing "too big to fail" banks in the future. The following is how CNN described this plan...
What this means is that if you have over 100,000 euros in a bank account in Europe, you could lose every single bit of the unprotected amount if your bank collapses. Italy As Zero Hedge reported on Tuesday, a "bail-in" is now being organized for the oldest bank in Italy...
Fortunately, it does not appear that this particular bail-in will hit private bank accounts (at least for now), but it does show that European officials are very serious about applying bail-in procedures when a major bank fails. New Zealand The New Zealand government has been discussing implementing a "bail-in" system to deal with any future major bank failures. The following comes from a New Zealand news source...
Canada Incredibly, even Canada is moving toward adopting these "bank bail-ins". In a previous article, I explained that "bail-ins" were even part of the new Canadian government budget...
So what does all of this mean for us? It means that the governments of the world are eyeing our money as part of the solution to any future failures of major banks. As a result, there is no longer any truly "safe" place to put your money. One of the best ways to protect yourself is to spread your money around. In other words, don't put all of your eggs in one basket. If you have your money a bunch of different places, it is going to be much harder for the government to grab it all. But if you don't listen to the warnings and you continue to keep all of your wealth in one giant pile somewhere, don't be surprised when you get wiped out in a single moment someday.
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MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - September 22nd - September 28th | ||
RISK REVERSAL | 1 | ||
JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION | 2 | ||
BOND BUBBLE | 3 | ||
EU BANKING CRISIS |
4 |
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SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS [Euope Crisis Tracker] | 5 | ||
CHINA BUBBLE | 6 | ||
JOB CREATION - The Reality of the Current Situation 20 Ordinary Americans Take About Their Economic Despair 09-24-13 Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog via ZH Yesterday we highlighted the plight of Tom Palome and his cohorts as they face a need to work well into once-thought-retirement age. However, there are hundreds of formerly prosperous communities all over America that are being steadily transformed into rotting, decaying hellholes. The good paying middle class jobs that once supported those communities are long gone, and they have been replaced with low paying service jobs if they have been replaced at all. When you visit those communities, it is almost as if all of the hope has been sucked right out of the air. The following are 20 quotes from ordinary Americans about the economic despair that is rapidly growing around them.
Via Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog, There are hundreds of formerly prosperous communities all over America that are being steadily transformed into rotting, decaying hellholes. The good paying middle class jobs that once supported those communities are long gone, and they have been replaced with low paying service jobs if they have been replaced at all. When you visit those communities, it is almost as if all of the hope has been sucked right out of the air. It can be absolutely heartbreaking to look into the hollow eyes of someone that has totally given in to despair, but unfortunately the number of Americans that are giving up on the economy continues to grow. Today, the labor participation rate is the lowest that it has been in 35 years, and more than 100 million Americans are enrolled in at least one welfare program. It is easy to say that they should just "get a job", but as I have written about repeatedly, our economy simply is not producing enough jobs for everyone anymore. The percentage of working age Americans with a job has remained at the same level that it was at during the worst days of the last recession, and meanwhile the quality of our jobs has continued to steadily decline. Median household income has fallen for five years in a row, but the cost of living continues to rise rapidly. The middle class is being systematically shredded, and poverty is growing at an alarming rate. The U.S. economy has been in decline for a long time, and the really bad news is that it appears that this decline is about to accelerate. We are a nation that consumes far more wealth than we produce. We are a nation that buys far more from the rest of the world than they buy from us. We are a nation that has a "buy now, pay later" mentality. As a nation, we have accumulated the largest mountain of debt in the history of the world. 40 years ago, the total amount of debt in our system (government, business and consumer) was about 2 trillion dollars. Today, it is more than 56 trillion dollars. The consequences of decades of incredibly foolish decisions are starting to catch up with us, and it is those at the bottom of the food chain that will suffer the most. I could spend the rest of this article quoting 30 or 40 more statistics that show how bad things are, but today I wanted to do something different. Today, I wanted to share some quotes from some of my readers about what they are seeing where they live. The following are 20 quotes from ordinary Americans about the economic despair that is rapidly growing like a cancer all around us... #1 David: "Yes, the American economy is in the pits. I know five languages, have three degrees (including two graduate degrees), and have lived overseas for 16 years and I still can't find a job in the USA. Everything is broken in America. Maybe I should give up my American citizenship." #2 Zach: "I've been struggling since I finished college in the summer of 2010. My dream is to work in the courts, law enforcement but it's almost impossible to get a call back for an interview. I interviewed with Garland, Texas PD for a position in the city jail and I made the final 30 of 300 applicants that applied for the 3 positions." #3 Akitawoman: "I have two Master's degrees, am 61 years old and earning $10 per hour. What does that say about the current economy?" #4 Cincinnati Dave: "I work for one of the banks mentioned in your article. I was in mortgages. I saw all of this coming, so several months ago I asked to get into another area of the bank and fortunately, for me, they granted by request. A lot of people are losing their jobs and there is really no prospects out there for anything else whereby the same kind of money could be made. I will make nothing near what I had been earning but am at the least grateful to be employed. This is all so sad to watch happen." #5 Iceman: "I used to work for WF processing mortgages. The week that the rates went up, I was out of work, not one extra week of work." #6 Tim: "The U.S. economy is producing mostly part-time, low-wage jobs. These jobs barely pay enough to put food on the table." #7 K: "What I am aware of, is every person I know, who had to switch jobs in the last five years took a pay cut. The smallest cut among my friends was 10%, the average was closer to 18%. No we are heading down a bad road, and we are past the point of no return." #8 Makati: "After spending most of my life in the middle class, I now consider myself lower class due to age and income. Nothing wrong with that. I am still able to provide myself with what I need and some of my 'wants'. I am like most retirees today." #9 Mondobeyondo: "As many of you already know (but maybe some new members of this blog don't) - I live in Phoenix, Arizona. Where you live here, determines (to a great extent) your economic well being. Those in the "East Valley" - Chandler, Gilbert, Scottsdale, etc - have the jobs, the opportunities and the transportation. Those in the wealthier areas of the "West Valley" also have these benefits. The remainder - those who live in the older west side of town, and the south side of town - are mainly forgotten and left to struggle. Many are hard working citizens who just want a chance. Unfortunately, chance costs money, in the view of many people, and as far as the municipal government is concerned, there's no money for us. It's cheaper to let them live in a tent in the park, where the cops at least have an excuse to evict them." #10 2Gary2: "We are no longer the land of opportunity where anyone can make it." #11 GOM: "There is no middle class here in the Florida Panhandle. Only folks who have money are the retired and they hate everyone. They own all the antique stores [big business] and most thriving businesses and restuarants. Military is big here, they spend every dime they have on stupid stuff and taxis. Tourist are way down since the spill. Now for the good news. A major food chain here is going out of business [Food World] Another is losing 20k a month to theft. Every other property it seems is up for sale. There are tons of empty real estate [store fronts] There are thrift stores opening everywhere. People are selling goods on the streets, only to be run off by the cops. Crime is getting out of hand. Most don't go out after dark. Police are beating up the homeless at the beaches. Panhandling now is mainly younger people. Where did all the older ones go?" #12 Rodster: "In my area which is SW Florida, it's been getting tighter for my customers so on a case by case basis I lower my price when they need auto repairs. I still find road signs advertising homes for sale (cash only). Many are advertised as foreclosed. I've started seeing people living out of their cars. It's not a daily occurrence but I have been noticing it." #13 Devery: I have been looking after the homeless now for 4 years. Last winter I had an encounter where I was told that I could not hand out blankets and sleeping bags in the dead of winter and that I would be arrested for trespassing if "me and my friends" didn't move along. So, I adopted the policy that I would pull up next to them, have them get in the car and we would go for a drive. I would find a place to pull over and give them what they needed then I would drop them off in a different place. #14 Robert: "Around where I live in the SE, things seem ok but I live in a university town. Go to some of the surrounding small towns and it is desolate. Car dealerships closed. Entire streets with abandoned stores. The only activity is a one clerk post office. I know people in our church who are a paycheck away from going over the edge or going over due to a spouse dying and losing one of their social security checks. I see grim. More homeless. A local church is feeding many more including some folks living out of their cars---lots of children. Mostly minimum wage jobs in the area. If it were not for the university and its 34,000 students, this place would look as bad as the smaller communities." #15 TN Gal: "Here in southeast TN we have jobs, mostly part-time or low wage. Our problem these days are so many people dependent on government programs no one wants to work. They do better on programs than working partying and paying for insurance. Housing still very depressed. Seeing more homeless around and local churches straining to provide food. Crime is up and drugs, which were down, are coming back with a vengeance. Middle class here are senior citizens on SS, younger retirees not the older ones. Older ones seem to be struggling. Sad." #16 Deb: Michael, I live in North Central Illinois. About 60 miles southeast of Chicago. The town we live in has about 8,000 in it. Very "middle class" farm community. Unemployment is high and so is underemployment. We know many people living off 2 part time jobs. That seems to be the norm around here. Or people taking jobs that they would never of considered in the past, just to get by. My son used to work for CAT in Aurora, but was "let go" in order to bring in new workers at a lower pay scale. It took him over a year(which really isn't bad) to find a part time job with 3M. #17 Susan: "Drive around Los Angeles at 3:00 AM any day and you will see the devastating and pervasive homelessness from 8 to 80 year olds. And the massage parlors and hookers on the streets of used to be 'high-end' neighborhoods are exploding. No other way to make a living." #18 XSANDIEGOCA: "A couple of years ago it was reported 9K people a night slept in their cars here in San Diego County. Special car parks are set up in some church parking lots. The cops look the other way. Wonder what the figure is now?" #19 Jimbo: "My own viewpoint is that a collapse of the current economic system is inevitable and imminent." #20 El Pollo de Oro: "During a conversation on prepping, someone recently said to me, 'If things get half as bad as these preppers think they will, I don't want to be alive.' So, how bad will things will get? Real unemployment is already at Great Depression levels (John Williams' Shadow Statistics contradicts the BLS' bogus figures), but when this depression deepens, I think we'll be looking at 50% or 60% unemployment easily. Much worse than the 1930s. It will be absolute hell for millions of Americans, and when the money stops flowing down to the man on the street, the blood will flow in the streets (Gerald Celente). Lots of it." |
09-25-13 | CATALYST EMPLOYMENT
RECESSION |
7 - Chronic Unemployment
13 - Growing Social Unrest
20 - Slowing Retail & Consumer Sales
22 - Public Sentiment & Confidence
30 - Pension - Entitlement Crisis
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MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week | |||
GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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GLOBAL RISK - New Measures, Same Results New Measure of System Risk (circa 2008 Crisis) 09-24-13 Barry Ritholtz NYU prof Robert Engle, who long-time blog readers may recall from this post a ways back, won the Nobel prize for his work on Volatility. He has developed new ways to measure “Systemic risk” from his perch at the Volatility Institute at NYU:
As the chart above shows, Lehman was not the only one who had engaged in too much risk taking. Indeed, they were not even the worst offender. And as the table below shows, JP Morgan now represents the greatest risk to the financial system. When we talk about risk in the system, this is what we are referring to. You can drill down by region or even country to see how much risk is in the system. Note that this is a function of both size and riskiness, i.e., a very small reckless country presents less of a risk than a very large moderately risk-taking nation. |
09-26-13 | GLOBAL RISK LEVELS | GLOBAL MACRO |
EMERGING MARKETS - Capital Freeze Index The capital-freeze index 09-19-13 Economist THE risk of an abrupt end to capital inflows is now a worry for much of the emerging world. The Economist has combined four factors into an index measuring the vulnerability of 26 emerging markets to a capital freeze: A large current-account gap implies lots of net borrowing from abroad. A high level of short-term external debt relative to a government's stock of reserves means an economy lacks the means to tide borrowers through temporary difficulties. Rapid credit growth often signals overstretched firms and overvalued asset prices. A more open financial system may boost growth in the long run, but it also makes it easy for capital to flood out fast. Our interactive infographic uses a simple traffic-light system to group the countries. Green denotes economies that are at relatively little risk, countries in amber territory have potential points of fragility, and those in red are most at risk. CLICK TO ENLARGE GRAPHIC Turkey remains top (ie, most at risk) in the revised index; India and South Africa both fall down the rankings; Mexico overtakes Colombia. But the biggest change is to the rankings of central and eastern European economies. Open capital accounts push Romania and Poland, previously in the safer half of the index, to the second- and third-most-vulnerable positions overall. Some readers wrote in to suggest that an open capital account should not count against an economy. Open financial systems, they reckoned, are associated with better financial institutions, which may reduce the probability of crisis. But ours is designed to be an index of vulnerability. Given other factors, like a high level of short-term debt and a big current-account deficit, an open capital account may indeed allow money to rush out. In revising our index we also looked at what would happen if other variables were introduced. Research suggests that, in addition to our four measures, statistics like gross external debt as a share of GDP, currency over- or undervaluation, and the share of foreign-currency-denominated debt are all risk factors. Interestingly, the addition of these variables made richer economies look even riskier. Turkey still remained at the top (as it does in all iterations of the index, right or wrong), but it was followed by Ukraine, Romania, Hungary, Chile and Poland. Such places tend to have higher overall debt levels, less reserve coverage of short-term debt and less undervalued currencies. Barring Turkey, they are also places whose currencies have been spared much of the recent turmoil. It may be that investors are more trusting of more mature economies with higher debt levels. Confidence counts for a lot in markets, after all. That is also true of newspapers. We apologise for the error, and have added new data-checking procedures to make a repetition less likely in future. |
09-26-13 | GLOBAL RISK GEO-POLITICAL RISK |
GLOBAL MACRO |
Merkel Wins Federal Election But Coalition Partner Below Bundestag Threshold: Final Outcome Too Close To Call 09-22-13 Zero Hedge While the outcome of the election from the perspective of "the grand coalition" is still too close to call, Exit polls make it clear that Merkels CDU/CSU party has won the election with 42.5% of the vote. However, there are some very interesting results that could be a problem for Europe's 'program-based' nations:
So the anti-Euro party has more votes (nearly the 5% required to enter the Bundestag) than Merkel's current coalition partner FDP party which creates major uncertainty over the forming of a coalition (which took 3 weeks in 2005) - which as we noted seemed to priced into Greek stocks on Friday. The pirate party is projected to have 2.5% of the vote. If the anti-Euro AfD enters the parliaments, a "Grand Coalition" appears inevitable. However, if it does not cross the 5% threshold, Merkel may end up with an absolute majority in the Bundestag and will not nead a coalition partner. The results so far at 1810 German time... |
09-23-13 | REGIONAL GERMANY | GLOBAL MACRO |
US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES | |||
MONETARY EXPANSION - Extremely Difficult to Stop Once Started Gold And Monetary Inflation Prospects 09-22-13 Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com On Wednesday last the Fed surprised most people by deciding not to taper. What is not generally appreciated is that once a central bank starts to use monetary expansion as a cure-all it is extremely difficult for it to stop. This is the basic reason the Fed has not pursued the idea, and why it most probably never will.That is a strong statement. But consider this: Paul Volcker faced this same dilemma in 1979, when he was appointed Chairman of the Fed. In raising interest rates to choke off inflation he had two things going for him that his successor has not: rising inflation was already over 10% so was an obvious priority, and importantly private sector debt-to-GDP was at a far lower level than today. It was a tough decision at the time to nearly double interest rates. Today, with official inflation low and private sector indebtedness high it would be extremely difficult. Until official inflation picks up, it is far more comforting to pretend it won’t be an issue, which reasonably describes the Fed’s approach. Instead it is targeting unemployment rates, on the basis that price inflation is tied to capacity utilisation, which in turn is tied to employment. One thing is certain in life, besides death and taxes, and that is if you expand the quantity of money prices eventually rise; or more accurately the purchasing power of debased money falls. The problem is how to measure currency debasement, and this has been a topic of heated debate since fiat currencies first developed. This has led me to propose a new measure of money, which at James Turk’s suggestion I am calling the Fiat Money Quantity (FMQ). The purpose is to gives us a measure of fiat money that enables us to assess the danger of currency hyperinflation. I shall be publishing a paper on this shortly explaining the methodology. The principle behind it is to signal deviations from the long-term trend of currency growth to alert us to both monetary crises and excessive inflation. The approach is to unwind the historic progression from full gold convertibility to the current state of no convertibility. Our gold was first deposited with our banks, and then from there with the central bank. In return for our gold deposits we have been issued cash notes and coin and credits in the form of deposits at the bank, and our bank equally has deposits at the central bank. The FMQ is therefore comprised of the sum of cash and coin, plus all accessible deposits, plus our bank’s deposits held at the central bank. This for the US dollar is illustrated in the chart below. The dotted line is the long-term exponential trend rate, and it is immediately obvious that the FMQ is now hyper-inflating. It currently requires a $3.6 trillion contraction of deposits to return this measure of currency quantity back to trend. This accurately sums up the problem facing the Fed. We must understand they are in an almost impossible position that dates back to their monetary response to the banking crisis. Not even Paul Volcker could have got us out of this one. Once the addiction to weak money hits this pace there is no solution without threatening to bring down the whole system. |
09-23-13 | MACRO MONETARY | CENTRAL BANKS |
VENEZUELA - Shortages & Hyperinflation Venezuela Seizes Toilet Paper Factory Amid Fears Of US Sabotage 09-22-13 Zero Hedge The Venezuelan government is in a bind. They realize that 'the people' will stand-by idly as the nation's currency is devalued, as inflation soars, and blackouts continue as food shortages grow...(and the stock market soars) but take away a critical personal care item and the riots will begin. As Yahoo Maktoob reports, Venezuela's leftist government said Saturday it temporarily seized a major toilet paper factory hoping that it can end troublesome shortages of the staple personal care item. "The temporary occupation of [the toilet-paper manufacturing plant] is aimed at verifying that toilet paper industry production, marketing and distribution" are all in line with state policies, Vice President Jorge Arreaza said on Twitter, without indicating how long the takeover would last. This action follows 'nationalization' of large farms amid President Maduro's claims that the White House is plotting the "collapse" of his government next month by sabotaging food, electricity and fuel supplies. But, of course as we noted previously, none of that matters - as the Venezuelan stock market is surging (which, if American talking heads are to be believed judging from thei reaction to US equity markets) must mean the country is doing great... The Caracas Stock Index is +270% YTD... Via Yahoo Maktoob,
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09-23-13 | VENEZUELA MONETARY MACRO HYPER- INFLATION |
CENTRAL BANKS |
MONETARY POLICY - Below the Event Horizon The Fed's "Renormalization" Shock (All 600 bps Of It) 09-21-13 Barclays via ZH Bernanke's actions this week make it very clear that between "financial conditions" and the fragility of growth, the US is incapable of surviving without ZIRP and QE (for now). As Barclays notes, ultimately, normalisation should proceed according to a timeline that does not threaten recovery, yet will result in a neutral monetary policy by the time the economy reaches full capacity and the desired inflation rate. However, there are many uncertainties along this path. Chairman Bernanke has said it might take "two or three years after 2016" to reach a 4% fed funds rate (the FOMC’s ‘longer-run’ expectation), but, as the disturbing chart below highlights, even an adjustment to 2.0% (the median FOMC expectation for December 2016) entails formidable adjustment of monetary policy once allowance is made for the tapering of QE. Given we now know that 'tapering is tightening', the implicit rate hike from a reduction in QE will mean a 600bps tightening in financial conditions. Do you believe in miracles? There is a wide variation of econometric estimates of the impact of LSAP, but one rule of thumb is that net purchases of $800bn have, very approximately, a similar impact on US GDP to a 100bp reduction in the fed funds rate. This implies that the Fed’s cumulative LSAP (set to approach $3.0trn by Q1 2014) might be considered equivalent to lowering the fed funds target rate by 370bp. We have tried to represent this in terms of a negative equivalent fed funds rate in the chart above, which illustrates that a return to ‘normality’ in terms of the Fed’s balance sheet and reaching even a 2-2.5% fed funds rate would represent a formidable tightening of US monetary conditions. Simply put - how do you think our easy-money, share-buying-back, leverage at all-time highs corporations will cope with a 600bps rise in the cost of capital over the next three years? Source: Barclays |
09-23-13 | MONETARY MACRO HYPER- INFLATION |
CENTRAL BANKS |
Market Analytics | |||
TECHNICALS & MARKET ANALYTICS |
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PATTERNS - Signs of Rotation Showing GOLDEN CROSS Gold's 50DMA crossed above its 100DMA for the first time in 2013. Gold just achieved its first GOLDEN CROSS in 2013. Gold's 50DMA crossed above its 100DMA on Wednesday 09-25-13. Normally this is an extremely Bullish signal It appears that hedges are being taken off en masse. At the same time managers are reducing exposure to stocks and rotating to bonds.
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09-26-13 | PATTERNS | ANALYTICS |
CURRENCIES - Driver$ & Trigger$ US$, YEN & EURO CROSS: With Fed’s tapering of its QE programme postponed – now not likely until December in most analysts' view, the FX market has made a turn for a weaker USD. Expect a 6 - 12M USD uptrend. Indeed, we see the Fed surprise as mainly bringing out a level shift in USD crosses, merely postponing an eventual USD uptrend a few months but not reducing its pace materially. Near term USD risks are tilted to the downside. KEY RISKS: Resulting in more EUR/USD upside:
EMERGING MARKETS: In an environment that has seen the emerging - markets (EM) sell - off calm down and which is now set to get another boost from Fed expanding its balance - sheet at a record pace still, carry currencies could receive a temporary boost. We stress, however, that longer - term challenges for EM and commodity currencies remain in place. The Scandies are similarly expected to benefit from improved risk sentiment in the near term) EXPECTATIONS: On a 1 - 3M horizon the delayed tapering provides a rather favourable backdrop for risk assets. With most markets having positioned for September tapering in recent months there is likely still room for some USD longs to be wiped out, this coupled with the fact that any geopolitical support to USD has waned,=.
CURRENCY PROJECTIONS
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09-25-13 | DRIVER$ | ANALYTICS |
The S&P has given up all of the FOMC Announcment market "pop' of placing "TAPER" on hold. Additionally, the Sunday German election results are in with Merkel still in a position of maintaining her coalition government. The markets have digested these events and the 2nd largest equity inflows since the 2000 Bubble Popped in the week leading up to the FOMC Announcement. The markets are now quickly moving towards the concern of a potential government shutdown over the debt ceiling (see charts). The Q3 earnings results and forward guidance are also now also a concern. As of Monday night (09-23-13) the S&P had its 3rd down day in a row for the first time in 5 weeks.
The markets were watching: The markets are now watching: Flows into equity funds surged this past week as investors digested news that Lawrence Summers had withdrawn his name from consideration as the potential new Chairman of the Federal Reserve. That coupled with a move that engendered near-universal surprise—the Fed’s decision to postpone any tapering of its bond-buying program caused equity markets to jump to new highs. Exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors were the first to take advantage of the Fed’s continued stimulus by loading $15.5 billion net into their investments for the week ended September 18. Equity mutual fund investors weren’t shy either; they added $2.6 billion to their accounts. YEAR’S LARGEST ONE-DAY RALLY FOR TREASURIES By refusing to back away from its bond buying, the Fed helped put the bid back into the Treasury market, which saw yields on the ten-year note drop from 2.86% to 2.69%—for the largest one-day rally this year. Taxable bond fund investors added about $1.4 billion net to their accounts; about $200 million was pulled from bond ETFs and just under $1.6 billion was put to work in bond mutual funds. Top flows among bond mutual fund groups were for Loan Participation Funds, which took in $1.1 billion. Municipal debt funds continued to bleed assets, despite the late Treasury rally: their net outflows reached $1.1 billion, with no tourniquet in sight to stop the outflows. Money market funds had small net outflows of just $230 million, mostly because of institutional buying of $3.2 billion. For more information on this week’s fund flows data, please refer to Lipper’s U.S. Fund Flows website. 2nd Largest Equity Inflows Since 2000 Bubble Popped 09-20-13 BofAML via ZH So much for the money-on-the-sideliness bullshit. Inflows into US equity funds rose to $23.1bn. This from an already strong $13.2bn inflow last week. As BofAML notes, this is the second largest weekly inflow since at least 2000 - which, coincidentally, was the last time a bubble of this magnitude (cough Fireeye IPO +100% on open today) occured (though don't tell Jim Bullard). As BofAML notes, "a rising market lifts all flows..." and global equity flows this week are the highest ever - yeah that always ends well. In fact flows to all global equity funds have never been higher... Chart: BofAML |
09-24-13 | PATTERNS | ANALYTICS |
COMMODITY CORNER - HARD ASSETS | PORTFOLIO | ||
PRIVATE EQUITY - REAL ASSETS | PORTFOLIO | ||
AGRI-COMPLEX | PORTFOLIO | ||
SECURITY-SURVEILANCE COMPLEX | PORTFOLIO | ||
THESIS Themes | |||
2013 - STATISM |
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STATISM - Spying on its Own Citizens
The Government Is Spying On Us Through Our Computers, Phones, Cars, Buses, Streetlights, At Airports And On The Street, Via Mobile Scanners And Drones, Through Our Smart Meters, And In Many Other Ways Take a Peek at How Widespread Spying Has Become Washingtonsblog 09-23-13 Even now – after all of the revelations by Edward Snowden and other whistleblowers – spying apologists say that the reports are “exaggerated” or “overblown”, and that the government only spies on potential bad guys. In reality, the government is spying on everyone’s digital and old-fashioned communications. For example, the government is photographing the outside information on every piece of snail mail. The government is spying on you through your phone … and may even remotely turn on your camera and microphone when your phone is off. As one example, the NSA has inserted its code into Android’s operating system … bugging three-quarters of the world’s smartphones. Google – or the NSA – can remotely turn on your phone’s camera and recorder at any time. Moreover, Google knows just about every WiFi password in the world … and so the NSA does as well, since it spies so widely on Google. But it’s not just the Android. In reality, the NSA can spy on just about everyone’s smart phone. Cell towers track where your phone is at any moment, and the major cell carriers, including Verizon and AT&T, responded to at least 1.3 million law enforcement requests for cell phone locations and other data in 2011. (And – given that your smartphone routinely sends your location information back to Apple or Google – it would be child’s play for the government to track your location that way.) Your iPhone, or other brand of smartphone is spying on virtually everything you do (ProPublica notes: “That’s No Phone. That’s My Tracker“). Remember, that might be happening even when your phone is turned off. The government might be spying on you through your computer’s webcam or microphone. The government might also be spying on you through the “smart meter” on your own home. NSA also sometimes uses “man-in-the-middle” tactics, to pretend that it is Google or other popular websites to grab your information. The FBI wants a backdoor to all software. But leading European computer publication Heise said in 1999 that the NSA had already built a backdoor into all Windows software. Microsoft has long worked hand-in-hand with the NSA and FBI so that encryption doesn’t block the government’s ability to spy on users of Skype, Outlook, Hotmail and other Microsoft services. And Microsoft informs intelligence agencies of with information about bugs in its popular software before it publicly releases a fix, so that information can be used by the government to access computers. (Software vulnerabilities are also sold to the highest bidder.) A top expert in the ‘microprocessors’ or ‘chips’ inside every computer – having helped start two semiconductor companies and a supercomputer firm – also says:
Leading security experts say that the NSA might have put a backdoor in all encryption standards years ago. … meaning that the NSA could easily hack into all encrypted communications. And the NSA hacks into encrypted “VPN” connections. It’s gotten so bad that some of the largest encryption companies are warning that their encryption tools are compromised. “Black boxes” are currently installed in between 90% and 96% of all new cars. And starting in 2014, all new cars will include black boxes that can track your location. License plate readers mounted on police cars allow police to gather millions of records on drivers … including photos of them in their cars. If you have a microphone in your car, that might also open you up to snoopers. As CNET points out:
A security expert and former NSA software developer says that hackers can access private surveillance cameras. Given that the NSA apparently already monitors public cameras using facial recognition software (and see this), and that the FBI is building a system which will track “public and private surveillance cameras around the country”, we can assume that government agencies might already be hacking into private surveillance cameras. The CIA wants to spy on you through your dishwasher and other “smart” appliances. As Slate notes:
And they’re probably bluffing and exaggerating, but the Department of Homeland Security claims they will soon be able to know your adrenaline level, what you ate for breakfast and what you’re thinking … from 164 feet away. (In addition, people will probably soon be swallowing tracking devices for medical purposes) The government is allegedly scanning prisoners’ brains without their consent at Guantanamo. In the near future, brain scanners may be able to literally read our thoughts (and see this). The government is currently testing systems for use in public spaces which can screen for “pre-crime”. As Nature reports:
CBS News points out:
The risk of false positives is very real. As Computer World notes:
Various “pre-crime” sensing devices have already been deployed in public spaces in the U.S. The government has also worked on artificial intelligence for “pre-crime” detection on the Web. And given that programs which can figure out your emotions are being developed using your webcam, every change in facial expression could be tracked. According to the NSA’s former director of global digital data – William Binney – the NSA’s new data storage center in Utah will have so much storage capacity that:
The NSA is building next-generation quantum computers to process all of the data. NBC News reports:
This includes metadata … which can tell the government a lot about you. And it also includes content. The documents leaked by Edward Snowden to Glenn Greenwald show:
In addition, a government expert told the Washington Post that the government “quite literally can watch your ideas form as you type.” (And see this.) A top NSA executive confirmed to Washington’s Blog that the NSA is intercepting and storing virtually all digital communications on the Internet. McClatchy notes:
NSA whistleblower Russel Tice – a key source in the 2005 New York Times report that blew the lid off the Bush administration’s use of warrantless wiretapping – says that the content and metadata of all digital communications are being tapped by the NSA. The NSA not only accesses data directly from the largest internet companies, it also sucks up huge amounts of data straight from undersea cables providing telephone and Internet service to the United States. After all, the government has secretly interpreted the Patriot Act so that “everything” is deemed relevant … so the government can spy on everyone. The NSA isn’t the only agency which is conducting massive spying. The Wall Street Journal notes:
Reason notes:
Even if the US government weren’t recording all of that data, England’s GCHQ spy agency is … and is sharing it with the NSA. Germany, Australia, Canada and New Zealand are also recording and sharing massive amounts of information with the NSA. Private contractors can also view all of your data … and the government isn’t keeping track of which contractors see your data and which don’t. And because background checks regarding some contractors are falsified, it is hard to know the types of people that might have your information. And top NSA and FBI experts say that the government can retroactively search all of the collected information on someone since 9/11 if they suspect someone of wrongdoing … or want to frame him. The American government is in fact collecting and storing virtually every phone call, purchases, email, text message, internet searches, social media communications, health information, employment history, travel and student records, and virtually all other information of every American. The Wall Street Journal reported that the NSA spies on Americans’ credit card transactions. Senators Wyden and Udall – both on the Senate Intelligence Committee, with access to all of the top-secret information about the government’s spying programs – write:
Many other government agencies track your credit card purchases as well. In fact, all U.S. intelligence agencies – including the CIA and NSA – are going to spy on Americans’ finances. The IRS will be spying on Americans’ shopping records, travel, social interactions, health records and files from other government investigators. The Consumer Financial Protection Board will also spy on the finances of millions of Americans. As Washington Monthly noted in 2004, Congress chopped off the head of the Total Information Awareness program … but the program returned as a many-headed hydra:
The government is flying drones over the American homeland to spy on us. Indeed, the head of the FBI told Congress that drones are used for domestic surveillance … and that there are no rules in place governing spying on Americans with drones. Senator Rand Paul correctly notes:
Emptywheel notes in a post entitled “The OTHER Assault on the Fourth Amendment in the NDAA? Drones at Your Airport?”:
Many police departments are also using drones to spy on us. As the Hill reported:
The military is paying for the development of drones with facial recognition software which “remember” people’s faces … and read “malintent”. Moreover, Wired reports:
RT notes:
The TSA has moved way past airports, trains and sports stadiums, and is deploying mobile scanners to spy on people all over the place. This means that traveling within the United States is no longer a private affair. You might also have seen the news this week that the Department of Homeland Security is going to continue to allow searches of laptops and phones based upon “hunches”. What’s that about? The ACLU published a map in 2006 showing that nearly two-thirds of the American public – 197.4 million people – live within a “constitution-free zone” within 100 miles of land and coastal borders: The ACLU explained:
Computer World reports:
Wired pointed out in 2008 that the courts have routinely upheld such constitution-free zones:
International airports are treated as “borders”, exempt for Fourth Amendment protections. As such, 145 airports should be added to the map above. Do you still believe that the government is only spying on bad guys in “targeted” searches?
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09-24-13 | THESIS | |
2012 - FINANCIAL REPRESSION |
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2011 - BEGGAR-THY-NEIGHBOR -- CURRENCY WARS |
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2010 - EXTEN D & PRETEND |
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THEMES | |||
CORPORATOCRACY - CRONY CAPITALSIM | |||
GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE | |||
SOCIAL UNREST |
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CENTRAL PLANNING |
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STANDARD OF LIVING |
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CORRUPTION & MALFEASANCE | |||
NATURE OF WORK | |||
CATALYSTS - FEAR & GREED | |||
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