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Mon. October 14th, 2013 |
THE MACRO ANALYTICS - A Technical Update What Are Tipping Poinits? |
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"BEST OF THE WEEK " |
Posting Date |
Labels & Tags | TIPPING POINT or 2013 THESIS THEME |
HOTTEST TIPPING POINTS |
Theme Groupings |
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We post throughout the day as we do our Investment Research for: LONGWave - UnderTheLens - Macro Analytics |
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MARKET DRIVER$ - An Example |
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VALUATIONS - Fewer Listings Relative to the Increase In Liquidity & Margin Growth The Slow Death Of The Listed Equity Market 10-13-13 Zero Hedge Stock markets worldwide are faced with the same issue of declines in listings that surfaced in the U.S. a decade and a half ago. The reasons for the contagious collapse in publicly listed entities is unclear (increasing acquisitions, LBOs, filing for bankruptcy, and declines in IPO volumes) but as Bloomberg reports, "the decline in public equities is unquestionable and should be of grave concern to both investors and policy makers alike," CFA Institutes' Jason Voss noted adding - crucially, "having fewer listings may hamper asset allocation, make stocks too expensive and send improper signals to companies looking to go public." European markets listed the most stocks in 2007, when a bull market ended. The total fell 23 percent during the next five years. Asia-Pacific listings peaked in 2010, and last year’s figure was 4.7 percent lower. Stock listings in the U.S. reached their highest total in 1997, in the midst of a bull market fueled by demand for shares of Internet companies. Last year’s figure was 47 percent lower than the record. Source: Bloomberg
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10-14-13 | STUDY
VALUATIONS
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ANALYTICS |
DRIVER$ - Understanding the Current Macro Driver$ - US Debt Default Scare INSTRUCTIONAL EXAMPLE: Charts Taken From Zero Hedge Washington Budget/Debt Ceiling negotiations brokedown over the weekend. This followed a 500 point upward move in the DOW in a 48 hour period based simply on indications talks were occuring and were "positive". THROUGH WHAT INSTRUMENTS DID THE MARKETS REACT n a world in which only the central banks' balance sheets matter, and everything, when stripped of its product complexity, is simply a derivation of a cheap money carry trade, as can be seen on the chart below showing the correlation between the the ES and the EURJPY which have become interchangeable... ... then the futures open in 4 hours should be interesting following the early weakness in both EURJPY and USDJPY. The AUDJPY is having an even worse day following Saturday's news of a big export miss in China: Interesting because the implied 15 point ES drop in futures as of the early indications... ... is hardly the large enough drop that is needed to once again the GOP in either the House or the Senate to scramble and get a deal done, following the recent two-day epic surge in the market on hopes that deal concerns would no longer be an issue. Charts: BBG |
10-14-13 |
DRIVER$ | ANALYTICS |
DRIVER$ - Understanding the Current Macro Driver$ - US Debt Default Scare WHAT WERE THE RESULTS - EU PRE-OPEN Charts Taken From Zero Hedge As we observed four hours ealier, the EURJPY-implied futures open suggested an immediate 15 points of downside. Sure enough, ES has just opened for trading some 15 points lower to start. Where it ends the overnight session, however, now that the NY Fed and BIS trading desks have both been called in for an emergency overnight session, is a different matter entirely. "Risk" assets in general (as proxied by Capital Context's CONTEXT model) ended Friday notably divergent (and non-believing) from stocks... and now futures have caught back down... It would seem equity futures are working their way back down to the level of risk T-Bills have been threatening. Cash treasury markets are not open yet but futures imply around a 2-3bps compression in yield - we can only imagine where T-Bill yields will break.... Charts: Bloomberg |
10-14-13 |
DRIVER$ | ANALYTICS |
THESIS & THEMES | |||
FINANCIAL CORRUPTION - Rigged Markets Markets Are Rigged 10-11-13 Washingtonblog.com U.S. Justice Department Opens Criminal Probe Into Currency Market ManipulationCurrency markets are massively rigged. Bloomberg reports today:
(Don’t get too excited. The Justice Department has announced it will go easy on big banks, and always settles prosecutions for pennies on the dollar … a form of stealth bailout. It is also arguably one of the main causes of the double dip in housing. Indeed, the government doesn’t even force the banks to admit any guilt as part of their settlements.) It’s not just currency markets. As shown below, big banks have manipulated virtually every market – both in the financial sector and the real economy – and broken virtually every law on the books. Interest Rates Are ManipulatedInterest rates are rigged:
Derivatives Are ManipulatedThe big banks have long manipulated derivatives … a $1,200 Trillion Dollar market. Indeed, many trillions of dollars of derivatives are being manipulated in the exact same same way that interest rates are fixed: through gamed self-reporting. Oil Prices Are ManipulatedOil prices are manipulated as well. Gold and Silver Are ManipulatedThe Guardian and Telegraph report that gold and silver prices are “fixed” in the same way as interest rates and derivatives – in daily conference calls by the powers-that-be. Energy Markets Are ManipulatedThe Federal Energy Regulatory Commission says that JP Morgan has massively manipulated energy markets in California and the Midwest, obtaining tens of millions of dollars in overpayments from grid operators between September 2010 and June 2011. Commodities Are ManipulatedThe big banks and government agencies have been conspiring to manipulate commodities prices for decades. The big banks are taking over important aspects of the physical economy, including uranium mining, petroleum products, aluminum, ownership and operation of airports, toll roads, ports, and electricity. And they are using these physical assets to massively manipulate commodities prices … scalping consumers of many billions of dollars each year. Everything Can Be Manipulated through High-Frequency TradingTraders with high-tech computers can manipulate stocks, bonds, options, currencies and commodities. And see this. Manipulating Numerous Markets In Myriad WaysThe big banks and other giants manipulate numerous markets in myriad ways, for example:
The Big PictureThe big picture is simple:
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10-14-13 | THEMES |
CORRUPTION
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MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - October 13th - October 19th |
RISK REVERSAL | 1 | ||
JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION | 2 | ||
BOND BUBBLE | 3 | ||
EU BANKING CRISIS |
4 |
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SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS [Euope Crisis Tracker] | 5 | ||
CHINA BUBBLE | 6 | ||
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MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week | |||
GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES | |||
Market Analytics | |||
TECHNICALS & MARKET ANALYTICS |
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COMMODITY CORNER - HARD ASSETS | PORTFOLIO | ||
PRIVATE EQUITY - REAL ASSETS | PORTFOLIO | ||
AGRI-COMPLEX | PORTFOLIO | ||
SECURITY-SURVEILANCE COMPLEX | PORTFOLIO | ||
THESIS Themes | |||
2013 - STATISM |
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2012 - FINANCIAL REPRESSION |
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2011 - BEGGAR-THY-NEIGHBOR -- CURRENCY WARS |
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2010 - EXTEND & PRETEND |
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THEMES | |||
CORPORATOCRACY - CRONY CAPITALSIM | |||
GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE | |||
SOCIAL UNREST |
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CENTRAL PLANNING |
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STANDARD OF LIVING |
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CORRUPTION & MALFEASANCE | |||
NATURE OF WORK | |||
CATALYSTS - FEAR & GREED | |||
GENERAL INTEREST |
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Tipping Points Life Cycle - Explained
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