VALUATIONS - Fewer Listings Relative to the Increase In Liquidity & Margin Growth

The Slow Death Of The Listed Equity Market 10-13-13 Zero Hedge

Stock markets worldwide are faced with the same issue of declines in listings that surfaced in the U.S. a decade and a half ago. The reasons for the contagious collapse in publicly listed entities is unclear (increasing acquisitions, LBOs, filing for bankruptcy, and declines in IPO volumes) but as Bloomberg reports, "the decline in public equities is unquestionable and should be of grave concern to both investors and policy makers alike," CFA Institutes' Jason Voss noted adding - crucially, "having fewer listings may hamper asset allocation, make stocks too expensive and send improper signals to companies looking to go public."

European markets listed the most stocks in 2007, when a bull market ended. The total fell 23 percent during the next five years.

Asia-Pacific listings peaked in 2010, and last year’s figure was 4.7 percent lower.

Stock listings in the U.S. reached their highest total in 1997, in the midst of a bull market fueled by demand for shares of Internet companies. Last year’s figure was 47 percent lower than the record.

Source: Bloomberg

DRIVER$ - Understanding the Current Macro Driver$ - US Debt Default Scare

INSTRUCTIONAL EXAMPLE: Charts Taken From Zero Hedge

Washington Budget/Debt Ceiling negotiations brokedown over the weekend. This followed a 500 point upward move in the DOW in a 48 hour period based simply on indications talks were occuring and were "positive".

THROUGH WHAT INSTRUMENTS DID THE MARKETS REACT

n a world in which only the central banks' balance sheets matter, and everything, when stripped of its product complexity, is simply a derivation of a cheap money carry trade, as can be seen on the chart below showing the correlation between the the ES and the EURJPY which have become interchangeable...

... then the futures open in 4 hours should be interesting following the early weakness in both EURJPY and USDJPY.

The AUDJPY is having an even worse day following Saturday's news of a big export miss in China:

Interesting because the implied 15 point ES drop in futures as of the early indications...

... is hardly the large enough drop that is needed to once again the GOP in either the House or the Senate to scramble and get a deal done, following  the recent two-day epic surge in the market on hopes that deal concerns would no longer be an issue.

Charts: BBG

DRIVER$ - Understanding the Current Macro Driver$ - US Debt Default Scare

WHAT WERE THE RESULTS - EU PRE-OPEN Charts Taken From Zero Hedge

As we observed four hours ealier, the EURJPY-implied futures open suggested an immediate 15 points of downside. Sure enough, ES has just opened for trading some 15 points lower to start. Where it ends the overnight session, however, now that the NY Fed and BIS trading desks have both been called in for an emergency overnight session, is a different matter entirely.

"Risk" assets in general (as proxied by Capital Context's CONTEXT model) ended Friday notably divergent (and non-believing) from stocks... and now futures have caught back down...

It would seem equity futures are working their way back down to the level of risk T-Bills have been threatening. Cash treasury markets are not open yet but futures imply around a 2-3bps compression in yield - we can only imagine where T-Bill yields will break....

Charts: Bloomberg

FINANCIAL CORRUPTION - Rigged Markets

Markets Are Rigged 10-11-13 Washingtonblog.com

U.S. Justice Department Opens Criminal Probe Into Currency Market Manipulation

Currency markets are massively rigged.

Bloomberg reports today:

The U.S. Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation of possible manipulation of the $5.3 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market, a person familiar with the matter said.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation, which is also looking into alleged rigging of interest rates associated with the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, is in the early stages of its currency market probe, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the inquiry is confidential.

***

Swiss regulators last week said they were “coordinating closely with authorities in other countries as multiple banks around the world are potentially implicated.”

The U.S. investigation comes as the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority said in June it was reviewing potential manipulation of exchange rates.

***

Earlier this week, European Union antitrust regulators said they were examining the possible manipulation of currency rates by the financial industry, while Switzerland’s Financial Market Supervisory Authority, or Finma, and the nation’s competition commission said they were probing similar potential wrongdoing.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has also been reviewing possible currency market rigging, said a separate person with knowledge of the matter.

***

RBS, Deutsche Bank and Citigroup are among firms reviewing e-mails, instant messages and phone records of their foreign-exchange employees for evidence of potential manipulation, according to three people with knowledge of those probes.

(Don’t get too excited.  The Justice Department has announced it will go easy on big banks, and always settles prosecutions for pennies on the dollar … a form of stealth bailout.  It is also arguably one of the main causes of the double dip in housing.  Indeed, the government doesn’t even force the banks to admit any guilt as part of their settlements.)

It’s not just currency markets. As shown below, big banks have manipulated virtually every market – both in the financial sector and the real economy – and broken virtually every law on the books.

Interest Rates Are Manipulated

Interest rates are rigged:

• The big banks have conspired for years to rig interest rates … upon which $800 trillion in assets are pegged

• This was the largest insider trading scandal ever … and the largest financial scam in world history

• Local governments got ripped off bigtime by the Libor manipulation

• Libor is still being manipulated

Derivatives Are Manipulated

The big banks have long manipulated derivatives … a $1,200 Trillion Dollar market.

Indeed, many trillions of dollars of derivatives are being manipulated in the exact same same way that interest rates are fixed: through gamed self-reporting.

Oil Prices Are Manipulated

Oil prices are manipulated as well.

Gold and Silver Are Manipulated

The Guardian and Telegraph report that gold and silver prices are “fixed” in the same way as interest rates and derivatives – in daily conference calls by the powers-that-be.

Energy Markets Are Manipulated

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission says that JP Morgan has massively manipulated energy markets in California and the Midwest, obtaining tens of millions of dollars in overpayments from grid operators between September 2010 and June 2011.

Commodities Are Manipulated

The big banks and government agencies have been conspiring to manipulate commodities prices for decades.

The big banks are taking over important aspects of the physical economy, including uranium mining, petroleum products, aluminum, ownership and operation of airports, toll roads, ports, and electricity.

And they are using these physical assets to massively manipulate commodities prices … scalping consumers of many billions of dollars each year.

Everything Can Be Manipulated through High-Frequency Trading

Traders with high-tech computers can manipulate stocks, bonds, options, currencies and commodities. And see this.

Manipulating Numerous Markets In Myriad Ways

The big banks and other giants manipulate numerous markets in myriad ways, for example:

• Engaging in mafia-style big-rigging fraud against local governments. See this, this and this

• Shaving money off of virtually every pension transaction they handled over the course of decades, stealing collectively billions of dollars from pensions worldwide. Details here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here

• Charging “storage fees” to store gold bullion … without even buying or storing any gold . And raiding allocated gold accounts

• Committing massive and pervasive fraud both when they initiated mortgage loans and when they foreclosed on them (and see this)

• Pledging the same mortgage multiple times to different buyers. See this, this, this, this and this. This would be like selling your car, and collecting money from 10 different buyers for the same car

• Cheating homeowners by gaming laws meant to protect people from unfair foreclosure

• Pushing investments which they knew were terrible, and then betting against the same investments to make money for themselves. See this, this, this, this and this

• Engaging in unlawful “frontrunning” to manipulate markets. See this, this, this, this, this and this

• Engaging in unlawful “Wash Trades” to manipulate asset prices. See this, this and this

• Otherwise manipulating markets. And see this

• Participating in various Ponzi schemes. See this, this and this

• Charging veterans unlawful mortgage fees

• Cooking their books (and see this)

• Bribing and bullying ratings agencies to inflate ratings on their risky investments

The Big Picture

The big picture is simple:

• The big banks manipulate every market they touch

• Too much interconnectedness leads to financial instability

• The government has given the banks huge subsidies … which they are using for speculation and other things which don’t help the economy. In other words, propping up the big banks by throwing money at them doesn’t help the economy

• Top economists, financial experts and bankers say that the big banks are too large … and their very size is threatening the economy. They say we need to break up the big banks to stabilize the economy

• The big banks own the D.C. politicians … so Congress and the White House won’t do anything unless the people force change