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FEDERAL RESERVE - Mounting Policy Failures Lacy Hunt Warns Federal Reserve Policy Failures Are Mounting 10-18-13 Authored by Lacy Hunt via Casey Research,via ZH The Fed's capabilities to engineer changes in economic growth and inflation are asymmetric. It has been historically documented that central bank tools are well suited to fight excess demand and rampant inflation; the Fed showed great resolve in containing the fast price increases in the aftermath of World Wars I and II and the Korean War. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, rampant inflation was again brought under control by a determined and persistent Federal Reserve. However, when an economy is excessively over-indebted and disinflationary factors force central banks to cut overnight interest rates to as close to zero as possible, central bank policy is powerless to further move inflation or growth metrics. The periods between 1927 and 1939 in the U.S. (and elsewhere), and from 1989 to the present in Japan, are clear examples of the impotence of central bank policy actions during periods of over-indebtedness. Four considerations suggest the Fed will continue to be unsuccessful in engineering increasing growth and higher inflation with their continuation of the current program of Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP):
1. The Fed does not understand how LSAP operates If the Fed were consistently getting the economy right, then we could conclude that their understanding of current economic conditions is sound. However, if they regularly err, then it is valid to argue that they are misunderstanding the way their actions affect the economy. During the current expansion, the Fed's forecasts for real GDP and inflation have been consistently above the actual numbers. Late last year, the midpoint of the Fed's central tendency forecast projected an increase in real GDP of 2.7% for 2013—the way it looks now, this estimate could miss the mark by nearly 50%. One possible reason why the Fed have consistently erred on the high side in their growth forecasts is that they assume higher stock prices will lead to higher spending via the so-called wealth effect. The Fed's ad hoc analysis on this subject has been wrong and is in conflict with econometric studies. The studies suggest that when wealth rises or falls, consumer spending does not generally respond, or if it does respond, it does so feebly. During the run-up of stock and home prices over the past three years, the year-over-year growth in consumer spending has actually slowed sharply from over 5% in early 2011 to just 2.9% in the four quarters ending Q2. Reliance on the wealth effect played a major role in the Fed's poor economic forecasts. LSAP has not been able to spur growth and achieve the Fed's forecasts to date, and it certainly undermines the Fed's continued assurances that this time will truly be different. 2. US debt is so high that Fed policies cannot gain traction Another impediment to LSAP's success is the Fed's failure to consider that excessive debt levels block the main channel of monetary influence on economic activity. Scholarly studies published in the past three years document that economic growth slows when public and private debt exceeds 260% to 275% of GDP. In the U.S., from 1870 until the late 1990s, real GDP grew by 3.7% per year. It was during 2000 that total debt breached the 260% level. Since 2000, growth has averaged a much slower 1.8% per year. Once total debt moved into this counterproductive zone, other far-reaching and unintended consequences became evident. The standard of living, as measured by real median household income, began to stagnate and now stands at the lowest point since 1995. Additionally, since the start of the current economic expansion, real median household income has fallen 4.3%, which is totally unprecedented. Moreover, both the wealth and income divides in the U.S. have seriously worsened. Over-indebtedness is the primary reason for slower growth, and unfortunately, so far the Fed's activities have had nothing but negative, unintended consequences. 3. Academic studies indicate the Fed's efforts are ineffectual Another piece of evidence that points toward monetary ineffectiveness is the academic research indicating that LSAP is a losing proposition. The United States now has had five years to evaluate the efficacy of LSAP, during which time the Fed's balance sheet has increased a record fourfold. It is undeniable that the Fed has conducted an all-out effort to restore normal economic conditions. However, while monetary policy works with a lag, the LSAP has been in place since 2008 with no measurable benefit. This lapse of time is now far greater than even the longest of the lags measured in the extensive body of scholarly work regarding monetary policy. Three different studies by respected academicians have independently concluded that indeed these efforts have failed. These studies, employing various approaches, have demonstrated that LSAP cannot shift the Aggregate Demand (AD) Curve. The AD curve intersects the Aggregate Supply Curve to determine the aggregate price level and real GDP and thus nominal GDP. The AD curve is not responding to monetary actions, therefore the price level and real GDP, and thus nominal GDP, are stuck—making the actions of the Fed irrelevant. The papers I am talking about were presented at the Jackson Hole Monetary Conference in August 2013. The first is by Robert E. Hall, one of the world's leading econometricians and a member of the prestigious NBER Cycle Dating Committee. He wrote, "The combination of low investment and low consumption resulted in an extraordinary decline in output demand, which called for a markedly negative real interest rate, one unattainable because the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate coupled with low inflation put a lower bound on the real rate at only a slightly negative level." Dr. Hall also wrote the following about the large increase in reserves to finance quantitative easing: "An expansion of reserves contracts the economy." In other words, not only have the Fed not improved matters, they have actually made economic conditions worse with their experiments. Additionally, Dr. Hall presented evidence that forward guidance and GDP targeting both have serious problems and that central bankers should focus on requiring more capital at banks and more rigorous stress testing. The next paper is by Hyun Song Shin, another outstanding monetary theorist and econometrician and holder of an endowed chair at Princeton University. He looked at the weighted-average effective one-year rate for loans with moderate risk at all commercial banks, the effective Fed Funds rate, and the spread between the two in order to evaluate Dr. Hall's study. He also evaluated comparable figures in Europe. In both the U.S. and Europe these spreads increased, supporting Hall's analysis. Dr. Shin also examined quantities such as total credit to U.S. non-financial businesses. He found that lending to non-corporate businesses, which rely on the banks, has been essentially stagnant. Dr. Shin states, "The trouble is that job creation is done most by new businesses, which tend to be small." Thus, he found "disturbing implications for the effectiveness of central bank asset purchases" and supported Hall's conclusions. Dr. Shin argued that we should not forget how we got into this mess in the first place when he wrote, "Things were not right in the financial system before the crisis, leverage was too high, and the banking sector had become too large." For us, this insight is highly relevant since aggregate debt levels relative to GDP are greater now than in 2007. Dr. Shin, like Dr. Hall, expressed extreme doubts that forward guidance was effective in bringing down longer-term interest rates. The last paper is by Arvind Krishnamurthy of Northwestern University and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen of the University of California, Berkeley. They uncovered evidence that the Fed's LSAP program had little "portfolio balance" impact on other interest rates and was not macro-stimulus. A limited benefit did result from mortgage-backed securities purchases due to the announcement effects, but even this small plus may be erased once the still unknown exit costs are included. Drs. Krishnamurthy and Vissing-Jorgensen also criticized the Fed for not having a clear policy rule or strategy for asset purchases. They argued that the absence of concrete guidance as to the goal of asset purchases, which has been vaguely defined as aimed toward substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market, neutralizes their impact and complicates an eventual exit. Further, they wrote, "Without such a framework, investors do not know the conditions under which (asset buys) will occur or be unwound." For Krishnamurthy and Vissing-Jorgensen, this "undercuts the efficacy of policy targeted at long-term asset values." 4. The velocity of money—outside the Fed's control The last problem the Fed faces in their LSAP program is their inability to control the velocity of money. The AD curve is planned expenditures for nominal GDP. Nominal GDP is equal to the velocity of money (V) multiplied by the stock of money (M), thus GDP = M x V. This is Irving Fisher's equation of exchange, one of the important pillars of macroeconomics. V peaked in 1997, as private and public debt were quickly approaching the nonproductive zone. Since then it has plunged. The level of velocity in the second quarter is at its lowest level in six decades. By allowing high debt levels to accumulate from the 1990s until 2007, the Fed laid the foundation for rendering monetary policy ineffectual. Thus, Fisher was correct when he argued in 1933 that declining velocity would be a symptom of extreme indebtedness just as much as weak aggregate demand. Fisher was able to make this connection because he understood Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk's brilliant insight that debt is future consumption denied. Also, we have the benefit of Hyman Minsky's observation that debt must be able to generate an income stream to repay principal and interest, thereby explaining that there is such a thing as good (productive) debt as opposed to bad (non-productive) debt. Therefore, the decline in money velocity when there are very high levels of debt to GDP should not be surprising. Moreover, as debt increases, so does the risk that it will be unable to generate the income stream required to pay principal and interest. Perhaps well intended, but ill advised The Fed's relentless buying of massive amounts of securities has produced no positive economic developments, but has had significant negative, unintended consequences. For example, banks have a limited amount of capital with which to take risks with their portfolio. With this capital, they have two broad options: First, they can confine their portfolio to their historical lower-risk role of commercial banking operations—the making of loans and standard investments. With interest rates at extremely low levels, however, the profit potential from such endeavors is minimal. Second, they can allocate resources to their proprietary trading desks to engage in leveraged financial or commodity market speculation. By their very nature, these activities are potentially far more profitable but also much riskier. Therefore, when money is allocated to the riskier alternative in the face of limited bank capital, less money is available for traditional lending. This deprives the economy of the funds needed for economic growth, even though the banks may be able to temporarily improve their earnings by aggressive risk taking. Perversely, confirming the point made by Dr. Hall, a rise in stock prices generated by excess reserves may sap, rather than supply, funds needed for economic growth. Incriminating evidence: the money multiplier It is difficult to determine for sure whether funds are being sapped, but one visible piece of evidence confirms that this is the case: the unprecedented downward trend in the money multiplier. The money multiplier is the link between the monetary base (high-powered money) and the money supply (M2); it is calculated by dividing the base into M2. Today the monetary base is $3.5 trillion, and M2 stands at $10.8 trillion. The money multiplier is 3.1. In 2008, prior to the Fed's massive expansion of the monetary base, the money multiplier stood at 9.3, meaning that $1 of base supported $9.30 of M2. If reserves created by LSAP were spreading throughout the economy in the traditional manner, the money multiplier should be more stable. However, if those reserves were essentially funding speculative activity, the money would remain with the large banks and the money multiplier would fall. This is the current condition. The September 2013 level of 3.1 is the lowest in the entire 100-year history of the Federal Reserve. Until the last five years, the money multiplier never dropped below the old historical low of 4.5 reached in late 1940. Thus, LSAP may have produced the unintended consequence of actually reducing economic growth. Stock market investors benefited, but this did not carry through to the broader economy. The net result is that LSAP worsened the gap between high- and low-income households. When policy makers try untested theories, risks are almost impossible to anticipate. The near-term outlook Economic growth should be very poor in the final months of 2013. Growth is unlikely to exceed 1%—that is even less than the already anemic 1.6% rate of growth in the past four quarters. Marked improvement in 2014 is also questionable. Nominal interest rates have increased this year, and real yields have risen even more sharply because the inflation rate has dropped significantly. Due to the recognition and implementation lags, only half of the 2013 tax increase of $275 billion will have been registered by the end of the year, with the remaining impact to come in 2014 and 2015. Additionally, parts of this year's tax increase could carry a negative multiplier of two to three. Currently, many of the taxes and other cost burdens of the Affordable Care Act are in the process of being shifted from corporations and profitable small businesses to households, thus serving as a de facto tax increase. In such conditions, the broadest measures of inflation, which are barely exceeding 1%, should weaken further. Since LSAP does not constitute macro-stimulus, its continuation is equally meaningless. Therefore, the decision of the Fed not to taper makes no difference for the outlook for economic growth.
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10-22-13 | MACRO MONETARY
US MONETARY |
CENTRAL BANKS |
FEDERAL RESERVE - QE Doesn't Help the Economy Fed Policy Hasn’t Worked: 3 Academic Studies Show that Quantitative Easing Doesn’t Help the Economy 10-21-13 Washington Blog via Barry Ritholtz Quantitative easing doesn’t help Main Street or the average American. It only helps (In reality, Federal Reserve policy works … just not for the average American. And a lot of the money goes abroad). Lacy Hunt – former senior economist for the Federal Reserve in Dallas, chief economist for Fidelity Bank, chief U.S. economist for HSBC, and now Vice President of Hoisington Investment Management Company (with more than $5 billion under management) – writes today:
No wonder even former and current Fed officials have slammed the Fed’s policies over the last 5 years. And see this
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10-22-13 | MACRO MONETARY
US MONETARY |
CENTRAL BANKS |
EARNINGS - Top Line Growth A Growing Problem
Third Quarter Earnings and Revenue Beat Rates 10-18-13 Bespoke Investment Group We're now a week and a half into earnings season, and 190 US companies have reported their third quarter numbers so far. By the end of earnings season, more than 2,000 companies will have reported, so we're still in the very early stages of this quarter's reporting period. Below is a look at the historical earnings beat rate for US stocks by quarter since 2001. As shown, 60.5% of the companies that have reported so far this season have beaten consensus analyst EPS estimates. This is a mediocre reading compared to the average beat rate of 63% that we've seen since the bull market began in March 2009. Top-line numbers have also been mediocre so far this season. As shown below, 50.9% of the companies that have reported have beaten revenue estimates, which is 9 percentage points below the average of 60% that we've seen since the bull market began. |
10-22-13 | Q3 EARNINGS | ANALYTICS |
THESIS & THEMES | |||
SOCIAL CHANGE - What America Will Look Like When The Next Great Economic Crisis Strikes 12 Shocking Clues For What America Will Look Like When The Next Great Economic Crisis Strikes 10-21-13 Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog VIA zh The collapse of American society is accelerating. For the moment, much of our social decay is being masked by the tremendous level of affluence that we are experiencing in aggregate. It has been reported that 4 out of every 5 adults in the United States "struggle with joblessness, near-poverty or reliance on welfare for at least parts of their lives", but in general Americans still enjoy a debt-fueled standard of living that is far beyond what most of the rest of the world enjoys. When that debt-fueled standard of living permanently disappears, it is going to unleash chaos unlike anything that America has ever seen before. Right now, economic conditions in this country are not anywhere close to where they were before 2008, but this is just the beginning. We are in the midst of an ongoing economic collapse which is going to get much, much worse in the years ahead. When the next major wave of the economic crisis strikes, millions of people are going to become extremely desperate. And desperate people do desperate things. We are already starting to see this play out all over the nation, but this is only a preview of coming attractions. What we are going to witness in future years is going to be almost too horrible for words. So how can I be so sure that this is going to happen? After all, the United States didn't descend into complete and utter chaos during the Great Depression of the 1930s. Wouldn't an economic depression unfold in a similar manner today? Unfortunately, a lot has changed since then. A lot more Americans were self-sufficient back in those days, and the truth is that the character of our nation has been rotting and decaying for decades. In a previous article, I described it this way...
Just last weekend, there were "mini-riots" in several U.S. states when "technical issues" caused the food stamp system to go haywire for a few hours. What would have happened if there had been an extended outage or if the political crisis in D.C. had caused food stamps to be completely cut off at some point in November? Let's be thankful that we did not have to find out. But even though major food stamps riots may have been averted (at least for now), there are a whole host of other signs that America is going to become a very unstable place during the next major economic downturn. The following are 12 shocking clues about what America will look like when the next great economic crisis strikes... #1 Would you continue to work as a bus driver if you were stabbed while driving or if a passenger poured urine all over you? Just check out what has been going on in Detroit lately...
#2 We are starting to see a lot of "group crimes" happen all over America. For example, just the other day in Brooklyn, New York a gang of 10 young thugs dragged a young couple out of their vehicle and brutally beat them...
#3 A lot of people assume that they are perfectly safe inside their own vehicles but that is not the case at all. A story in the New York Post about a gang of bikers that ruthlessly hunted down a young family that was driving an SUV made national headlines a few weeks ago...
When the bikers caught up with this family they showed the father of the baby daughter absolutely no mercy...
#4 We are living at a time when hearts are becoming very cold. Some Americans are becoming so desperate for money that they will do almost anything to get it. In fact, one couple in Tennessee has actually been charged with selling their four daughters for use in sex films...
Could you imagine such a thing happening in your neighborhood? Perhaps it is happening, but you just don't know that it is going on. #5 And it is not only older people that are having their hearts grow cold. It is happening to young people too. Last week, a 17-year-old girl was caught carrying around a dead baby (which she probably gave birth to) in a shopping bag in a Victoria's Secret store right in the heart of Manhattan...
Who does something like that? #6 Sadly, a lot of mothers appear to be losing the natural affection that they should have for their children. Just check out another incident that happened in New York City recently...
#7 One of the clearest signs that American society is decaying is the fact that groups of kids are banding together and agreeing to commit absolutely horrible crimes. We have seen this with the "flash mob" robberies that are plaguing many cities, but what is even worse is when groups of kids band together to commit violent acts. In Pennsylvania recently, a group of teens cheered on attackers as they beat up a 15-year-old girl...
The attackers even tried to throw her in front of a passing vehicle and nobody tried to stop them...
What is happening to this country? #8 We have also been hearing about a lot of "gang rapes" lately as well. The following is an excerpt from a first-hand account from a 14-year-old girl in Missouri that experienced this type of horrible ordeal...
You can read the rest of her sobering story right here. Are you starting to understand why I am so convinced that we have a major problem with our young men in America today? Instead of raising young gentlemen, we are raising wild animals that seem to have very little self-control. #9 And sometimes the public does not do anything to stop sexual assaults even when they happen on public streets. In a recent incident in Athens, Ohio, not only did the public not stop a sexual assault, many actually took photos of the assault and posted them on social media websites...
Would such a thing have happened in our country 50 years ago? Of course not. We need to come to grips with how far we have fallen. #10 In America today, young kids can beat a homeless man to death and it barely even makes a blip on the news. I'll bet hardly any of you have heard about what happened recently to a homeless man in New Jersey...
What would cause 13-year-olds and 14-year-olds to behave so savagely? Could it be because we are raising them in a society where basic morality is not taught any longer? #11 Our young people certainly do not have much respect for the very elderly anymore either. Instead, the elderly are looked at as "weak" and "easy prey". Just check out what recently happened to a 70-year-old man in upstate New York...
#12 In this day and age, it is very hard to tell who you can trust. You might meet someone on the street and they might smile and seem very nice, but inside they may be full of all kinds of garbage. For example, just check out what one man in the Boston area planned to do…
This is how twisted and perverted our society has become. A lot of Americans believe that if we could just elect "the right politicians" or if we could just change our economic system or if we could just fix one particular issue that everything would be right in America again. Unfortunately, what we are facing is not so simple. Our problems are not just in Washington D.C. or on Wall Street. The truth is that our biggest problem is what is going on inside of us. America is rotting and decaying on the inside, and the next great economic crisis is going to reveal just how bad things have gotten.
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10-22-13 | THEME |
SOCIAL UNREST
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MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - October 13th - October 19th |
RISK REVERSAL | 1 | ||
JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION | 2 | ||
JAPAN - BOJ To "Own" 100% Of GDP In 5 Years When Hyman Minsky Runs For The Hills: Japan Central Bank To "Own" 100% Of GDP In 5 Years 10-19-13 Zero Hedge ONE YEAR AGO Over a year ago, in "Japan's WTF Chart" we showed where Japan lies on the sovereign debt-to-tax revenue continuum. The "where", with a WTF-inducing 1900% sovereign debt/revenue, was essentially off the chart as it was nearly 5 times greater than the first runner up: Greece, with 400%. Naturally, that ratio is absolutely unsustainable and the second rates begin creeping higher, all bets are off.
THREE YEARS AGO However the day of reckoning could be delayed if as we said two years before Japan's berserko QE was unveiled, the BOJ entered "hyprintspeed" and started monetizing debt at a pace that would make Hyman Minsky and Rudy von Havenstein both break out in a lunatic cackle. TODAY ("ABE-Nomics" is now underway) One look at the chart below, which shows JPM's estimate for various central bank holdings as a percent of host nation GDP, is enough to explain why that distant giggling is Hyman Minsky warming up... and he is running for the hills. The reason: while as a result of its recent decision to double its monetary base in (every) two years Japan's central bank now holds about 40% of local GDP on its books, it has precommited to seeing this percentage hit 60% over the next two years. But that's jst the beginning. As JPM's Mike Cembalest points out, the "contingent" line is where the BOJ's asset holdings as a % of GDP will rise to should Japan's 2% inflation goal prove elusive. Did we say "contingent" - we meant definite. And as the line shows, the Bank of Japan will, for the first time in history, "own" all of Japan's GDP on its balance sheet some time in 2018 when its "assets" as a percentage of GDP surpass 100%, and then proceed in linear fashion to add about 10% of GDP to its balance sheet with every passing year until everything inevitably comes crashing down. What is most ironic here is that we still have assorted carnival barkers and trolling nobel prize winning op-ed writers working for cash burning media outlets, bitching and moaning about the 90% "unsustainable threshold" level of sovereign debt to GDP. Um, standalone sovereign debt in a world with central banks means nothing. A far more important question is what happens in a world in which the first official sovereign LBO by a central bank of a sovereign nation (remember those fringe bloggers who said in 2009 the So just what do Reinhort and Rogoff, or anyone else for that matter with 2 functioning neurons to rub together, think about a world in which a nation's central bank owns more assets, and has thus created more cash and reserves, than all the good and services for its host nation, which it has then effectively LBOed... with debt created out of thin air and collateralized by what can only be defined as funny money. We can't wait to find out, and neither can the aforementioned Mr. Minsky, who if not running for the hills, is certainly spinning in his grave. * * * Some more thoughts on that absolute, circus-like clusterfuck with zero regard for the future that is happening in a very irradiated Japan, which at this point knows quite well it's game over.
Yup: the proverbial Bernanke chopper warming up now, somewhere in Tokyo.
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10-21-13 | MACRO JAPAN |
2 - Japan Debt Deflation Spiral |
JAPAN - Adjusted trade deficit the worst in Bloomberg's 20 year history JPY Drops, Nikkei Pops On Japan's Worst Trade Deficit On Record 10-20-13 Zero Hedge You have to laugh really... We presume the rally in Japanese stocks and weakness in the JPY reflects an assumption that this dismal miss for both imports and exports - leaving Japan's adjusted trade deficit the worst in Bloomberg's 20 year history - means moar Abenomics. Of course, the headlines will be all about Abe's 'any minute now' comments or Kuroda's 'just one more quarter' hope (as he speaks later today) but the reality is that things are not getting better in the radioactive nation as this marks the 30th consecutive trade deficit... but, like Venezuela, when has that even been reason not to buy stocks... S&P futures are up 2.5 points (below Friday's highs still for now), gold has given back its earlier gains and is unchanged, and Treasury Futures are down a tick. For the 30th consecutive month, Japan ran a trade deficit and this time it was the biggest ever as imports rose 16.5% YoY (missing the 19.9% YoY expectations by the most in 15 months) and exports rose 11.5% (missing the 15.6% YoY expectations by the most in 14 months)... |
10-21-13 | MACRO JAPAN |
2 - Japan Debt Deflation Spiral |
BOND BUBBLE | 3 | ||
EU BANKING CRISIS |
4 |
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SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS [Euope Crisis Tracker] | 5 | ||
CHINA BUBBLE | 6 | ||
ECONOMIC GROWTH - Uneconomic Energy Problematic Growth Is Obsolete 10-20-13 James H. Kunstler via Peak Prosperity blog, The word that sticks in the craw of many who cogitate over economics is growth. The condition that the word refers to has proven disturbingly problematic in recent years, especially as world’s population continues to expand exponentially and the global ecology suffers in response. In fact, Thomas Carlyle (1795 – 1881) called economics “the dismal science” in direct reference to the work of the Rev. Thomas Malthus, because the Malthusian conclusions were so unappetizing - that sooner or later rising human populations would outstrip the world’s capacity to provide for them. Now it happened that the Reverend Malthus’s notorious Essay on the Principle of Population was first published in 1798, which was about exactly the take-off moment for the industrial revolution. That extravagant melodrama was about marshaling mechanical invention with fossil fuel. The first act ran on coal and allowed populations to expand because it extended the extractive reach for resources by colonialist nations. The second act featured exploitation of oil, which was more powerful and versatile than coal. It also lent itself much more directly than coal to being converted into food for people. The use of oil powered farming machines, oil and gas (an oil byproduct) based herbicides, insecticides, and fertilizers, and oil based long distance food transport, has allowed us to convert oil into food pretty directly. This has led to the “hockey-stick” swerve of population growth that took human numbers worldwide from under 2 billion in the year 1900 to more than 7 billion today. We are in the third act of the industrial melodrama now where the dire sub-plot of peak oil has taken stage. Despite the wishful thinking and happy-talk propaganda lighting up the media-space, we have arrived at the problematic point of the story: the end of cheap oil. This is poorly understood by the public and, apparently, by leaders in business, politics, and the media, too. They misunderstand because they insist on thinking that peak oil was simply about running out of oil. It’s not. It’s about running out of the ability to extract it from the earth in a way that makes economic sense — that is, at a price we can afford in terms of available capital and energy invested (and also ecological destruction). That dynamic is now exerting a powerful influence on modern civilizations. We ignore it -- even at the highest levels of intellectual endeavor -- because we have made no alternate plans for running the complex operations of everyday life, and because the early manifestations of the dynamic present themselves in the realm of finance, which is dominated by academic viziers and money-grubbing opportunists who benefit from obfuscating reality. The sad, stark fact is that oil is now too expensive to permit further expansion of economies and populations. Expensive oil upsets the cost structure of virtually every system we need to run modern life: transportation, commerce, food production, governance, to name a few. In particular expensive oil destroys the cost structures of banking and finance because not enough new wealth can be generated to repay previously accumulated debt, and new credit cannot be extended without a reasonable expectation that more new wealth will be generated to repay it. Through the industrial age, our money has become an increasingly abstract and complex product of debt creation. As Chris Martenson has put it so succinctly in The Crash Course, money is loaned into existence. Thus, the growth of debt (allowing the growth of money) has played a crucial role at the heart of our banking operations, and the very word “growth” has become shorthand for this process in the lingo of current economic discourse. It is quite clear that the banking system has been thrown into great disarray as the price of oil levitated from $11-a-barrel in 1999 to the great spike of $140 in 2008, and then settled into a range between $75 and $110 since 2010. Most of this disarray is a result of attempts to offset the failure to create new real wealth with fake wealth generated by accounting fraud, "innovative" swindling, insider chicanery, high frequency front-running, naked shorting of securities, and the construction of a vast untested network of derivative counterparty wagers that give every sign of being booby-trapped. All this private monkey business has been abetted by public mischief in central bank interventions and market manipulations, fiscal irresponsibility, political payoffs for favorable legislation, statistical misreporting, and the failure to apply the rule of law in cases of blatant misconduct (e.g., the MF Global confiscation of segregated client accounts; the Goldman Sachs “Timberwolf” CDO scam… the list is very long). In short, a society with deeply impaired capital formation has turned to crime, corruption, fakery, and subterfuge in order to pretend that “growth” — i.e. expansion of capital — is still happening. The consequences are many and profound. The chief one is that the manufacture of fake wealth is such an alluring activity that some of the smartest people in society have devoted their waking hours to making a profit off it. It absorbs all their energies and they are simply not available for other work, such as figuring out a sane and practical way to run civilization in the absence of cheap energy. Added to this is the administrative effort and the work-arounds needed to support all this corruption and dishonesty, which occupy the hours of another class of smart people who work in government, academia, public relations, and the media. The sustenance of these parasitical cohorts more and more continues at the expense of everybody else in society, who cannot find work, or cannot make enough money to pay their living expenses, and who have become deeply discouraged, disappointed, demoralized, and disengaged in their losing struggle to thrive. Hence there is little public vigor to even mount a discussion of these vexing problems and the final result is the greater wholesale failure to construct a coherent consensus about what is happening to us and what we might do about it. Another consequence to these disorders of capital is the massive malinvestment directed into things with no future in themselves or, much worse, things that actively undermine the future of everything needed to support any civilized future. For instance, the "innovation" in securitizing and repackaging mortgages -- which continues to be a boon for the giant banks in concert with the thoroughly dishonest and technically bankrupt "government sponsored enterprises" Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- expresses itself in the activity we call "housing starts." Economists overwhelmingly agree that a higher number of housing starts is a good thing for the economy and hence for society. But what do housing starts actually represent? These days they mostly take the form of new suburban housing subdivisions, which are inevitably joined by the kit of the strip mall, the big box store, and all the other furnishings of the highway strip. In short, all that glorious "innovation" by the banks produces more suburban sprawl and destruction of rural land, which is about the last thing this society needs when faced with the realities of peak cheap oil, since it is absolutely certain to make these things obsolete, and very soon. It is not any better, either, if the nominal capital -- nominal because it is sure to someday represent a loss for some bond-holder or stockholder -- gets invested in a 30-story high rise apartment because, contrary to a lot of current delusional thinking, skyscrapers also have no practical future for reasons I have explained in other essays here. Similarly, the public investments going into "shovel-ready" highway projects, although the fiscal outlays are more transparently based on money that doesn't really exist. The public, as well as leaders all across society, serenely believe that the Happy Motoring matrix will find a way to go on forever, and that therefore we must make provision for it, not to mention the beneficial side of effect of "job creation" for all the additional workers. Yet the dynamic at work must be obvious: oil will never be cheap again; it will impair future capital formation; there will be far fewer car loans; there will dwindling public funds to maintain the roads; and there is no practical substitute for gasoline that scales to the existing system, nor any prospect of one within a time frame that makes sense -- not to mention the gigantic background problem of pouring evermore carbon into the sky. If these things I mention -- highways, tract houses, condo towers, strip malls -- represent our current idea of "growth," and if they are self-evidently bad investments, then we can infer that our current concept of "growth" no longer applies to a reality-based model of our economic prospects. We ought to junk the term and what it implies about the daily business of mankind, and come up with a new way of understanding the place we're at. In Part II: Getting To a Future That Has a Future, we take a hard look at the critical task facing humanity if we want to enjoy a future of any worth -- and that's managing contraction. We have to reorganize all the major systems of civilized daily life. We have to produce our food differently, we have to do commerce differently, and so on with any number of ongoing endeavors including transportation, manufacturing, governance, banking, education, health care, and more. Click here to access Part II of this report (free executive summary; enrollment required for full access). |
10-21-13 | MACRO
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11 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate |
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EMERGING MARKETS - Risk-On! Budget Deal Opens Door for Emerging-Market Rally 10-18-13 WSJ The deal to reopen the U.S. government and suspend the debt ceiling has opened the door for a rally in emerging markets, analysts say. With the possibility of a U.S. default out of the way until early 2014, investors now have "A window to pick up emerging-market currencies and local-currency government bonds at attractive prices", they say. The drag on the U.S. economy from the 16-day shutdown likely means the Federal Reserve will keep its stimulus program running for the next couple months, at least. That buys investors, and emerging economies, some time. For much of the second and third quarters, emerging-market assets had plummeted on fears that the Fed would roll back some of its bond-buying in September. That didn’t happen, and thanks to the economic damage done by the shutdown, many analysts and economists are now predicting that it probably won’t until the first quarter of next year. With the Fed still pumping liquidity into the financial system, analysts are predicting that Investors should once again embrace the appeal of the higher yields that emerging-market currencies and bonds have to offer. And with investors’ emerging-market holdings still relatively low after the summer selloff, that leaves plenty of space for the assets to run. “Now that the U.S. debt ceiling issue is off the table, we think that this creates room for a sizeable rally in global emerging markets,” Societe Generale analysts wrote in a note to clients Thursday. “All stars are aligned in our view, including signals that the Fed tapering is at risk of being further delayed.” “Tactically cheap” currencies like the Mexican peso and Turkish lira are well positioned to rally, while emerging-market local currency bond yields are still too high, Societe Generale said. Emerging-market currencies already rallied significantly on Wednesday, ahead of the deal’s approval in Congress. On Friday, the South African rand gained 0.7% against the dollar, though many other emerging-market currencies were unchanged or slightly down on the day versus the greenback. Sara Zervos, portfolio manager at OppenheimerFunds, which has $212.25 billion under management, says that emerging-market currencies could perform well if the U.S. dollar remains weak on continued Fed bond-buying. Interest-rate increases from various emerging-market central banks in recent months should be another source of support for these currencies, she adds. Higher interest rates typically raise the rate of return on a currency versus a currency with lower interest rates. Since September, Ms. Zervos has added to holdings of South African and Mexican local-currency government bonds and to various emerging currencies, and said she was comfortable holding those positions in part because of the likelihood that the Fed won’t cut back on its stimulus program, called “quantitative easing,” this quarter. Analysts acknowledge that the expected emerging-market rally may only last for a few months. After all, a pullback of Fed stimulus is still on the horizon, and political gridlock could return to Washington in February, when the suspension of the debt ceiling ends. But until the U.S. economy improves enough to make tapering a dominant theme once again, “the combination of QE-taper delay and fiscal debt resolution should provide a sweet spot for EM assets,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts said in a note Thursday. They recommend the Brazilian real, Mexican peso and South Korean won, as well as local currency bonds in Russia and Hungary. |
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SOCIAL CHANGE - Profound Changes In Global Youth As Japan Leads the Way Why Have Young People In Japan Stopped Having Sex? 10-20-13 Zero Hedge Japan's under-40s appear to be losing interest in conventional relationships. Millions aren't even dating, and increasing numbers can't be bothered with sex. For their government, "celibacy syndrome" is part of a looming national catastrophe. Japan already has one of the world's lowest birth rates. As The Guardian reports, 45% of Japanese women aged 16-24 are "not interested in or despise sexual contact". More than a quarter of men feel the same way. Is Japan providing a glimpse of all our futures? Many of the shifts there are occurring in other advanced nations, too. Across urban Asia, Europe and America, people are marrying later or not at all, birth rates are falling, single-occupant households are on the rise and, in countries where economic recession is worst, young people are living at home... Via The Guardian, Ai Aoyama is a sex and relationship counsellor who works out of her narrow three-storey home on a Tokyo back street... she did "all the usual things" like tying people up and dripping hot wax on their nipples. Her work today, she says, is far more challenging. Aoyama, 52, is trying to cure what Japan's media calls sekkusu shinai shokogun, or "celibacy syndrome". ... Japan's under-40s appear to be losing interest in conventional relationships. Millions aren't even dating, and increasing numbers can't be bothered with sex. For their government, "celibacy syndrome" is part of a looming national catastrophe. Japan already has one of the world's lowest birth rates. Its population of 126 million, which has been shrinking for the past decade, is projected to plunge a further one-third by 2060. Aoyama believes the country is experiencing "a flight from human intimacy" – and it's partly the government's fault. ... The number of single people has reached a record high. A survey in 2011 found that 61% of unmarried men and 49% of women aged 18-34 were not in any kind of romantic relationship, a rise of almost 10% from five years earlier. Another study found that a third of people under 30 had never dated at all. (There are no figures for same-sex relationships.) Although there has long been a pragmatic separation of love and sex in Japan – a country mostly free of religious morals – sex fares no better. A survey earlier this year by the Japan Family Planning Association (JFPA) found that 45% of women aged 16-24 "were not interested in or despised sexual contact". More than a quarter of men felt the same way. ... Official alarmism doesn't help. Fewer babies were born here in 2012 than any year on record. (This was also the year, as the number of elderly people shoots up, that adult incontinence pants outsold baby nappies in Japan for the first time.) Kunio Kitamura, head of the JFPA, claims the demographic crisis is so serious that Japan "might eventually perish into extinction". ... "Both men and women say to me they don't see the point of love. They don't believe it can lead anywhere," says Aoyama. "Relationships have become too hard." Marriage has become a minefield of unattractive choices. Japanese men have become less career-driven, and less solvent, as lifetime job security has waned. Japanese women have become more independent and ambitious. ... Aoyama says the sexes, especially in Japan's giant cities, are "spiralling away from each other". Lacking long-term shared goals, many are turning to what she terms "Pot Noodle love" – easy or instant gratification, in the form of casual sex, short-term trysts and the usual technological suspects: online porn, virtual-reality "girlfriends", anime cartoons. Or else they're opting out altogether and replacing love and sex with other urban pastimes. ... Aoyama cites one man in his early 30s, a virgin, who can't get sexually aroused unless he watches female robots on a game similar to Power Rangers. ... Mendokusai translates loosely as "Too troublesome" or "I can't be bothered". It's the word I hear both sexes use most often when they talk about their relationship phobia. Romantic commitment seems to represent burden and drudgery, from the exorbitant costs of buying property in Japan to the uncertain expectations of a spouse and in-laws. And the centuries-old belief that the purpose of marriage is to produce children endures. Japan's Institute of Population and Social Security reports an astonishing 90% of young women believe that staying single is "preferable to what they imagine marriage to be like". ... The sense of crushing obligation affects men just as much. Satoru Kishino, 31, belongs to a large tribe of men under 40 who are engaging in a kind of passive rebellion against traditional Japanese masculinity. Amid the recession and unsteady wages, men like Kishino feel that the pressure on them to be breadwinning economic warriors for a wife and family is unrealistic. They are rejecting the pursuit of both career and romantic success. "It's too troublesome," says Kishino, when I ask why he's not interested in having a girlfriend. "I don't earn a huge salary to go on dates and I don't want the responsibility of a woman hoping it might lead to marriage." Japan's media, which has a name for every social kink, refers to men like Kishino as "herbivores" or soshoku danshi (literally, "grass-eating men"). Kishino says he doesn't mind the label because it's become so commonplace. He defines it as "a heterosexual man for whom relationships and sex are unimportant". ... Is Japan providing a glimpse of all our futures? Many of the shifts there are occurring in other advanced nations, too. Across urban Asia, Europe and America, people are marrying later or not at all, birth rates are falling, single-occupant households are on the rise and, in countries where economic recession is worst, young people are living at home. ... "Gradually but relentlessly, Japan is evolving into a type of society whose contours and workings have only been contemplated in science fiction," ... Japan's 20-somethings are the age group to watch. Most are still too young to have concrete future plans, but projections for them are already laid out. According to the government's population institute, women in their early 20s today have a one-in-four chance of never marrying. Their chances of remaining childless are even higher: almost 40%. ... "Japan has developed incredibly sophisticated virtual worlds and online communication systems. Its smart phone apps are the world's most imaginative." Kelts says the need to escape into private, virtual worlds in Japan stems from the fact that it's an overcrowded nation with limited physical space. But he also believes the rest of the world is not far behind. Getting back to basics, former dominatrix Ai Aoyama – Queen Love – is determined to educate her clients on the value of "skin-to-skin, heart-to-heart" intimacy. She accepts that technology will shape the future, but says society must ensure it doesn't take over. "It's not healthy that people are becoming so physically disconnected from each other," she says. "Sex with another person is a human need that produces feel-good hormones and helps people to function better in their daily lives." Aoyama says she sees daily that people crave human warmth, even if they don't want the hassle of marriage or a long-term relationship. She berates the government for "making it hard for single people to live however they want" and for "whipping up fear about the falling birth rate". Whipping up fear in people, she says, doesn't help anyone. And that's from a woman who knows a bit about whipping.
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10-21-13 | MACRO TRENDS |
SOCIAL UNREST
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