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Lance Roberts

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INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

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PRESERVE & PROTECT:  The Jaws of Death

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What Are Tipping Poinits?
Understanding Abstraction & Synthesis
Global-Macro in Images:  Understanding the Conclusions

 

         
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KEY TO TIPPING POINTS
1 - Risk Reversal
2 - Japan Debt Deflation Spiral
3- Bond Bubble
4- EU Banking Crisis
5- Sovereign Debt Crisis
6 - China Hard Landing
 
7 - Chronic Unemployment
8 - Geo-Political Event
9 - Global Governance Failure
10 - Chronic Global Fiscal ImBalances
11 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate
12 - Iran Nuclear Threat
13 - Growing Social Unrest
14 - US Banking Crisis II
15 - Residential Real Estate - Phase II
16 - Commercial Real Estate
17 - Credit Contraction II
18- State & Local Government
19 - US Stock Market Valuations
 
20 - Slowing Retail & Consumer Sales
21 - China - Japan Regional Conflict
22 - Public Sentiment & Confidence
23 - US Reserve Currency
24 - Central & Eastern Europe
25 - Oil Price Pressures
26 - Rising Inflation Pressures & Interest Pressures
27 - Food Price Pressures
28 - Global Output Gap
29 - Corruption
30 - Pension - Entitlement Crisis
 
31 - Corporate Bankruptcies
32- Finance & Insurance Balance Sheet Write-Offs
33 - Resource Shortage
34 - US Reserve Currency
35- Government Backstop Insurance
36 - US Dollar Weakness
37 - Cyber Attack or Complexity Failure
38 - Terrorist Event
39 - Financial Crisis Programs Expiration
40 - Natural Physical Disaster
41 - Pandemic / Epidemic

 

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TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS
| THIS WEEKS TIPPING POINTS | MACRO NEWS | MARKET ANALYTICS | THESIS TRACKING | 2014 THEMES |

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Ukraine - SlideDeck  

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MACRO INVESTMENT INSTRUMENT
WEAKNESS
RUSSIAN RUBBLE
WEAKNESS
LIQUID NATURAL GAS (LNG)
WEAKNESS
OIL (towards $80/bl)
STRENGTH
CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS (CDS)
WEAKNESS
AUSTRIAN, ITALIAN, FRENCH BANKS

FINANCIAL WARFARE

It will be difficult for Russia to carry out transactions in U.S. dollars as European and American banks will be very mindful of breaking embargoes, given they have been subject to a multitude of costly probes

 

 

 

 

 

 

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or

THEME / THESIS

or

INVESTMENT INSIGHT

MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES TODAY

    

 

 

VALUATIONS - Historic Highs

 

 04-16-14 VALUATIONS
ANALYTICS
THEMES      

CRONY CAPITALISM - The Gutting of America

 

America's fiscal decline mirrors massive stealth revenue cuts.

It has not flattened out (see right chart below) but rather is now about pensions/healthcare transfer to the public sector entitlement ledger.

Click to Enlarge

 

 04-16-14 THEMES
MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - April 13th, 2014 - April 19th, 2014      
RISK REVERSAL     1
JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION     2
BOND BUBBLE     3

EU BANKING CRISIS

   

4
SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS [Euope Crisis Tracker]     5
CHINA BUBBLE     6

RETAIL CRE - Family Dollar to cut jobs, shut 370 stores as sales fall

Family Dollar to cut jobs, shut 370 stores as sales fall 04-12-14 Reuters

Family Dollar Stores, seeking to reverse declining sales and profit, said on Thursday it would it would cut jobs, shut hundreds of underperforming stores and slash prices.

The discount retailer, which caters to lower income shoppers, many of whom live paycheck to paycheck, reported

  • 35 percent decline in profit in the quarter that ended March 1,
  • Sales at stores open at least a year fell 3.8 percent.
  • It expects same-store sales to decline this quarter, too.
  • Will cut prices on 1,000 basic items,
  • 8,100 stores across the United States,
  • Would close 370 weak performing stores,
  • Slow its expansion of new stores.
  • The company will open between 350 and 400 new stores next fiscal year, rather than the 500 initially planned.
  • Two bright spots for Family Dollar were strong sales of frozen food and tobacco products.
  • Job cuts and store closures are expected to reduce annual operating costs by $40 million to $45 million beginning third quarter of fiscal 2014
  • Overall sales in the second quarter fell 6.1 percent to $2.72 billion, below the $2.77 billion analysts were expecting,
  • Net income was $168.9 million, or $1.47 per share, down from $220.4 million, or $1.90 per share.

Family Dollar, which has struggled to compete with rivals Dollar General and Dollar Tree, earlier this year found customers balk at higher prices, especially as rivals were lowering theirs.

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Family Dollar hurt by internal problems; COO resigns -

What investors don't want to hear from Wal-Mart

Play Video Credit Suisse analyst Michael Exstein has a note out suggesting Wal-Mart buys Family Dollar to accelerate its growing small store efforts, reports CNBC's Courtney Reagan.

Family Dollar shares were down 3.4 percent in premarket trading. (Click here for the latest quote.)

COLD WATER CREEK

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ALL CLOTHING WOMEN'S PLUS PETITES WHAT'S NEW SALE OUTLET NEW IN STORES
04-14-14 US-GROUP-RETAIL-CRE 20 - Slowing Retail & Consumer Sales
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MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week

GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS

     

US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS

     
CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES      
     
Market Analytics
TECHNICALS & MARKET ANALYTICS

 

    

SENTIMENT - US Macro Driver$ / Bia$

LONG TERM PERSPECTIVE

SHORT TERM PERSPECTIVE

UNDERLYING DRIVER$ - SHIFTING SENTIMENT

TOPPING PROCESS - Flattening MAs

What is important below is the recognition of the process of "Banding". That is the flattening of the 50 DMA and its narrowing with the 100 DMA.

Additionally, the closing of the 50 DMA and 100 DMA with a rising 200 DMA.

PROCESS OF "BANDING" - Setting Up for the "Crosses"

 

INTERMEDIATE TERM PERSPECTIVE

 

 04-15-14 SENTIMENT
ANALYTICS
COMMODITY CORNER - HARD ASSETS   PORTFOLIO  
COMMODITY CORNER - AGRI-COMPLEX   PORTFOLIO  
SECURITY-SURVEILANCE COMPLEX   PORTFOLIO  
     
THESIS
2014 - GLOBALIZATION TRAP 2014

2013 - STATISM

2013-1H

2013-2H

2012 - FINANCIAL REPRESSION

2012

2013

2014

2011 - BEGGAR-THY-NEIGHBOR -- CURRENCY WARS

2011

2012

2013

2014

2010 - EXTEND & PRETEND

   
THEMES
FLOWS -FRIDAY FLOWS   THEME
SHADOW BANKING -LIQUIDITY / CREDIT ENGINE   THEME  
CRACKUP BOOM - ASSET BUBBLE   THEME  
ECHO BOOM - PERIPHERAL PROBLEM   THEME  
PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX -NATURE OF WORK   THEME  
STANDARD OF LIVING -EMPLOYMENT CRISIS   THEME  
CORPORATOCRACY -CRONY CAPITALSIM   THEME

CORRUPTION & MALFEASANCE -MORAL DECAY - DESPERATION, SHORTAGES.

   THEME
SOCIAL UNREST -INEQUALITY & A BROKEN SOCIAL CONTRACT   THEME  
SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX -STATISM   THEME  
GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE - FRAGILITY, COMPLEXITY & INSTABILITY   THEME  
CENTRAL PLANINNG -SHIFTING ECONOMIC POWER   THEME  
CATALYSTS -FEAR & GREED   THEME  
GENERAL INTEREST

 

    
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Tipping Points Life Cycle - Explained
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