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MACRO GROWTH -"Cluster Of Central Banks" Have Secretly Invested $29 Trillion In The Market

"Cluster Of Central Banks" Have Secretly Invested $29 Trillion In The Market 06-16-14 ZH

Another conspiracy "theory" becomes conspiracy "fact" as The FT reports "a cluster of central banking investors has become major players on world equity markets." The report, to be published this week by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), confirms 

$29.1T in market investments, held by 400 public sector institutions in 162 countries,

which "could potentially contribute to overheated asset prices."

China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange has become “the world’s largest public sector holder of equities”, according to officials, and we suspect the Fed is close behind (courtesy of more levered positions at Citadel), as

the world's banks try to diversify themselves and "counters the monopoly power of the dollar." 

Which leaves us wondering where are the central bank 13Fs?

While most have assumed that this is likely, the recent exuberance in stocks has largely been laid at the foot of another irrational un-economic actor - the corporate buyback machine. However, as The FT reports, what we have speculated as fact for many years now (given the death cross of irrationality, plunging volumes, lack of engagement, and of course dwindling credibility of central planners)... is now fact...

Central banks around the world, including China’s, have shifted decisively into investing in equities as low interest rates have hit their revenues, according to a global study of 400 public sector institutions.

“A cluster of central banking investors has become major players on world equity markets,” says a report to be published this week by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (Omfif), a central bank research and advisory group.The trend “could potentially contribute to overheated asset prices”, it warns.

...

The report, seen by the Financial Times, identifies $29.1tn in market investments, including gold, held by 400 public sector institutions in 162 countries.

...

China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange has become “the world’s largest public sector holder of equities”, as the report argues is “partly strategic” because it “counters the monopoly power of the dollar” and reflects Beijing’s global financial ambitions.

...

In Europe, the Swiss and Danish central banks are among those investing in equities. The Swiss National Bank has an equity quota of about 15 per cent. Omfif quotes Thomas Jordan, SNB’s chairman, as saying: “We are now invested in large, mid- and small-cap stocks in developed markets worldwide.” The Danish central bank’s equity portfolio was worth about $500m at the end of last year.

Read more here

So there it is... conspiracy fact - Central Banks around the world are buying stocks in increasing size.

To summarize, the global equity market is now one massive Ponzi scheme in which the dumb money are central banks themselves, the same banks who inject the liquidity to begin with.

That would explain this.

That said, good luck with "exiting" the unconventional monetary policy. You'll need it.

GLOBAL GEO-ECONOMICS - "Belgium" Treasurys Post First Decline Since August

Chinese Treasury Holdings Drop To Lowest Since February 2013 As "Belgium" Treasurys Post First Decline Since August 06-16-14 ZH

With everyone expecting "Belgian" US Treasury holdings to surge by another inexplicable double-digit billion amount, and surpass $400 billion in what has been the most aggressive, and secretive, accumulation of TSYs by an unknown third-party using the Belgian jurisdiction as venue via Euroclear, the April holdings of the small European country posted their first drop since August. According to the TIC data released moments ago, total "Belgium" holdings - the third largest after China and Japan - declined by $15 billion in April, to a new grand total of $366 billion.

Offsetting this drop, almost to the penny, was the first increase in Russian paper which after posting its largest decline in history in March for reasons well-known, saw a $16 billion increase from its cycle lows of just $100. Still, this was a 22% decline from Russia's holding as of a year ago. Furthermore, considering the deterioration in relations between Russia and the US since April, it would not surprise anyone if this blip in Russian TSY holdings is quite transitory, and the May data shows that Russian holdings have already dipped into double digit range.

Finally, looking at the top two holders of US paper, Chinese holdings declined from $1272.1 to $1263.2, the lowest Chinese total holdings since February 2013, which once again was offset almost to the dollar by Japan, whose holdings increased by $10 billion to $1209.7 billion - just shy of the insolvent island's largest US paper holdings on record.

TICS REPORT - June 16th, 2014

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CREDIT - Sub-Prime Auto Lending

Subprime Lending Drives Spending 06-13-14 House Of Debt via SA

A concern that we highlighted in yesterday's post is that the only way the U.S. economy can generate significant consumer spending is through aggressive lending to borrowers with low credit scores. Here is more evidence supporting that view.

In the chart below, we plot retail spending on appliances, furniture and home improvement, or "home-related spending" (blue line) and spending on new autos (red line) from 1998 through 2014. We have highlighted the two major subprime lending booms we've seen in that period - the subprime mortgage lending boom from 2003 to 2006, and the subprime auto loan boom from 2010 to 2014. In order to be able to include 2014, we focus only on the first four months of each year.

(click to enlarge)

When subprime mortgage lending was booming from 2003 to 2006, so were purchases of home-related goods. As soon as the subprime mortgage lending market crashed, so did home-related spending. In fact, in 2014, home-related spending is still below its 2006 level in nominal terms. It's a pretty incredible boom and bust.

For auto spending, growth was positive prior to the Great Recession, but unspectacular. But as soon as subprime auto lending heated up in 2011 and afterward, so did purchases of new auto vehicles. The growth in new auto sales from 2011 to 2014 has been really impressive. So once again, spending in a particular market is strongest when subprime lending in that market is strongest.

It appears that the key to boosting spending in the U.S. economy is subprime lending.

The financial system was lending against homes before the Great Recession, and now it has moved to lending against cars. But the basic message is the same.

CREDIT - Subprime Auto-Lending Credit Bubble Is Bursting

The Subprime Auto-Lending Credit Bubble Is Bursting 06-13-14 Pater Tenebrarum of Acting-Man blog via ZH

We have commented a few times on the slightly diffuse character of the echo bubble, which has infected a great many nooks and crannies of the economy. One of the areas which has experienced an enormous boom was the sub-prime auto loan sector. It seems however that the party in this sub-sector of the bubble economy is in the process of ending.

According to Bloomberg:

“A three-year lending boom to car buyers with spotty credit that helped push auto sales to a six-year high is starting to show signs of overheating.

The percentage of loans packaged into securities that are more than 30 days late rose 1.43 percentage points to 7.59 percent in the 12 months ended September 30, according to Standard & Poor’s. That’s the highest in at least three years, the data released last week by the New York-based ratings company show.

“We’re at this inflection point,” Amy Martin, an analyst at S&P, said by telephone. “Now that they are opening the lending spigot, it’s only natural that losses are starting to rise.”

Underwriting standards began to decline amid five years of Federal Reserve stimulus that set off a race for higher-yielding assets, spurring a surge in issuance of bonds tied to subprime auto loans. That breathed life into a car-finance business that had contracted in the wake of the credit crisis, attracting new lenders and private-equity firms such as Blackstone Group LP with cheap funding and high margins.

Delinquencies on subprime auto loans are likely to have increased more during the fourth quarter, the holiday period when consumers typically stretch their budgets, according to S&P. That’s poised to increase losses that bondholders will take from defaults on the debt, which stood at 6.92 percent at the end of September after falling to as low as 4.15 percent in 2011, S&P data show.

“Many lenders have told us that their performance in recent years exceeded their expectations,” Martin wrote in a report last month. “We are now hearing that they expect losses to trend upward to more normal levels this year and next.”

[…]

Subprime lenders have found cheap funding in the bond market, with $17.6 billion of asset-backed securities tied to subprime auto loans issued last year, more than double the $8 billion sold in 2010, according to Barclays Plc. About $3.6 billion of the securities have been offered this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

(emphasis added)

We wonder of there is any pie Blackstone doesn't have a finger in these days… Anyway, it seems investors in these loans – after enjoying above average returns for a good while – must now brace for growing losses. That 'underwriting standards have declined' is really no surprise – that is what happens when the Federal Reserve prints wagon-loads of money and pressures short term interest rates to zero. In fact, this decline in lending standards was arguably one of the main goals of the policy.

However, what interests us about this development is mainly this: it shows that the credit bubble is beginning to fray at the edges. Every downturn starts with a seemingly innocuous report about things 'suddenly' and 'unexpectedly' going wrong in a relatively obscure corner of the market. We find ourselves reminded of how sub-prime real estate credit troubles began to show up for the first time in February of 2007, leading to the often repeated mantra that this particular disturbance in the force was 'well contained'.

That is however never how it works – in the end, it is all one big interconnected market. When troubles begin to show up at one end of it, they soon tend to  begin to spread.

A car repo notice – at least the repo sector can expect a boom now.

Good-bye overpriced SUV piece of junk – it was nice to know ye while it lasted …

One should certainly keep both eyes open henceforth; more anecdotal evidence of this type is likely to emerge in coming months, especially if the Fed continues with its 'QE tapering' course. Once problems become visible in one obscure corner of the low grade credit markets, it is often a warning sign for the entire market and economy.