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What Are Tipping Poinits?
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| S | M | T | W | T | F | S |
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| 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 |
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KEY TO TIPPING POINTS |
| 1 - Risk Reversal |
| 2 - Japan Debt Deflation Spiral |
| 3- Bond Bubble |
| 4- EU Banking Crisis |
| 5- Sovereign Debt Crisis |
| 6 - China Hard Landing |
| 7 - Chronic Unemployment |
| 8 - Geo-Political Event |
| 9 - Global Governance Failure |
| 10 - Chronic Global Fiscal ImBalances |
| 11 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate |
| 12 - Iran Nuclear Threat |
| 13 - Growing Social Unrest |
| 14 - US Banking Crisis II |
| 15 - Residential Real Estate - Phase II |
| 16 - Commercial Real Estate |
| 17 - Credit Contraction II |
| 18- State & Local Government |
| 19 - US Stock Market Valuations |
| 20 - Slowing Retail & Consumer Sales |
| 21 - China - Japan Regional Conflict |
| 22 - Public Sentiment & Confidence |
| 23 - US Reserve Currency |
| 24 - Central & Eastern Europe |
| 25 - Oil Price Pressures | 26 - Rising Inflation Pressures & Interest Pressures |
| 27 - Food Price Pressures |
| 28 - Global Output Gap |
| 29 - Corruption |
| 30 - Pension - Entitlement Crisis |
| 31 - Corporate Bankruptcies |
| 32- Finance & Insurance Balance Sheet Write-Offs |
| 33 - Resource Shortage |
| 34 - US Reserve Currency |
| 35- Government Backstop Insurance |
| 36 - US Dollar Weakness |
| 37 - Cyber Attack or Complexity Failure |
| 38 - Terrorist Event |
| 39 - Financial Crisis Programs Expiration |
| 40 - Natural Physical Disaster |
| 41 - Pandemic / Epidemic |
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Labels & Tags | TIPPING POINT or THEME / THESIS or INVESTMENT INSIGHT |
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PATTERNS - "Fiat Money" Supply Continues To Increase "Fiat Money" Supply Continues To Increase  A measure of money supply in the economy called FMQ (fiat money quantity) continues to increase .. Alasdair Macleod: "Whichever way we look at FMQ, it continues to expand at a frightening pace ..There is little sign of any such contraction. We can conclude from short-term market interest rates that the U.S. economy is going nowhere fast, contrary to this week’s GDP estimate, and that demand for credit continues to come from essentially financial activities. But given that GDP estimates turn out to be far too optimistic, what if the US economy stalls or even slumps? .. No matter which way the FED attempts to spin this, the so called 'taper' they are attempting is having little to no effect on the money supply. The chart shows that the endless expansion of the money supply will continue on and the value of its hardest working citizens, the savers, will continue to diminish." LINK HERE to the Commentary LINK HERE to the definition of FMQ
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08-11-14 | PATTERNS | ANALYTICS |
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PATTERNS - Longest Streak Of High-Yield Debt Outflows On Record This Is The Longest Streak Of High-Yield Debt Outflows On Record
.. emphasizes this will end badly: "U.S. corporates saw profit growth slow to almost zero last year and on an EBIT basis it has been flat for some time now. Earnings quality, rather than improving is actually deteriorating, as indicated by the increasing gap between official and pro-forma EPS numbers. As a consequence, following a long period of overspending and in the absence of a strong pick-up in demand, corporates will have to spend less and not more .. Finally, as a consequence of such anemic growth, corporates have been gearing up their balance sheets in an effort to sustain EPS momentum via the continuing use of share buybacks. With markets up substantially in 2013 executing those share buybacks has become increasingly expensive. Little wonder companies have to borrow so much to continue executing them."
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08-11-14 | PATTERNS | ANALYTICS |
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PATTERNS - Destabilizing The Entire World Financial System This Is Going To Destabilize The Entire World Financial System
"Bond prices in practically all industrialized nations are near all-time highs. Never before have interest rates been this low on a global basis. If one examines these events more closely, it becomes clear that the underlying problems cannot be solved by global zero interest rate policy, but that the natural selection process of the market is instead being undermined .. Interest rates are the heart, soul and life of the free enterprise system .. This truth is however veiled and distorted at the moment. Governments, financial institutions, entrepreneurs and consumers that are acting in an uneconomic manner are thus kept artificially afloat. As a result, instead of them being punished for their errors, these errors are perpetuated. Protraction of this process of selection leads to a structural weakening of the economy, and a concomitant increase in the system's fragility .. Declining interest rate levels make a gradual increase in public indebtedness possible, while the interest burden (as a share of government spending) does not grow .. Without negative real interest rates, the steadily growing mountains of debt would long ago have ceased to be sustainable. Central banks are increasingly prisoners of the policy of over-indebtedness .. Central banks and governments are currently trying to create an increase in prosperity out of nothing. Such a monetary perpetuum mobile would be quite desirable for humankind, however, historically such attempts have at best led to a brief sugar high followed by a major hangover. Ronald-Peter Stoferle, Incrementum AG LINK HERE to the Commentary
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08-11-14 | PATTERNS | ANALYTICS |
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| MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - Aug. 10rd - Aug 16th, 2014 | |||||||||||||||||||
| RISK REVERSAL | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION | 2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| BOND BUBBLE | 3 | ||||||||||||||||||
EU BANKING CRISIS |
4 |
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| SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS [Euope Crisis Tracker] | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||
| CHINA BUBBLE | 6 | ||||||||||||||||||
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| MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week | |||||||||||||||||||
GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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| CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES | |||||||||||||||||||
| Market Analytics | |||||||||||||||||||
| TECHNICALS & MARKET ANALYTICS |
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| COMMODITY CORNER - HARD ASSETS | PORTFOLIO | ||||||||||||||||||
| COMMODITY CORNER - AGRI-COMPLEX | PORTFOLIO | ||||||||||||||||||
| SECURITY-SURVEILANCE COMPLEX | PORTFOLIO | ||||||||||||||||||
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| 2014 - GLOBALIZATION TRAP | 2014 |  |
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| FLOWS -FRIDAY FLOWS | THEME |  |
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| SHADOW BANKING -LIQUIDITY / CREDIT ENGINE | THEME | ||||||||||||||||||
| CRACKUP BOOM - ASSET BUBBLE | THEME | ||||||||||||||||||
| ECHO BOOM - PERIPHERAL PROBLEM | THEME | ||||||||||||||||||
| PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX -NATURE OF WORK | THEME | ||||||||||||||||||
| STANDARD OF LIVING -EMPLOYMENT CRISIS | THEME | ||||||||||||||||||
| CORPORATOCRACY -CRONY CAPITALSIM | THEME |  |
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CORRUPTION & MALFEASANCE -MORAL DECAY - DESPERATION, SHORTAGES. |
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| SOCIAL UNREST -INEQUALITY & A BROKEN SOCIAL CONTRACT | THEME | ||||||||||||||||||
| SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX -STATISM | THEME | ||||||||||||||||||
| GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE - FRAGILITY, COMPLEXITY & INSTABILITY | THEME | ||||||||||||||||||
| CENTRAL PLANINNG -SHIFTING ECONOMIC POWER | THEME | ||||||||||||||||||
| CATALYSTS -FEAR & GREED | THEME | ||||||||||||||||||
| GENERAL INTEREST |
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Tipping Points Life Cycle - Explained
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