Investing in Macro Tipping Points

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GLOBAL RISK - Signs of Madness

1. US TREASURY WARNS - US Treasury Warns Investors Underestimate "Potential For A Market Reversal", Take "Low Volatility For Granted" 12-04-14 ZH
2. BIS WARNS - BIS Shocked At How Broken Markets Have Become 12-08-14 ZH BIS warned that the rally in the U.S. dollar could destabilize the global financial system.

Signs of Madness in the Global Financial System 12-09-14 Ira Harris

ENERGY - Exposive Week in the Markets

Quite a week!!

• WTI's 2nd worst week in over 3 years (down 10 of last 11 weeks)
• Dow's worst worst week in 3 years
• Financials worst week in 2 months
• Materials worst week since Sept 2011
• VIX's Biggest week since Sept 2011
• Gold's best week in 6 months
• Silver's last 2 weeks are best in 6 months
• HY Credit's worst 2 weeks since May 2012
• IG Credit's worst week in 2 months
• 10Y Yield's best week since June 2012
• US Oil Rig Count worst week in 2 years
• The USDollar's worst week since July 2013
• USDJPY's worst week since June 2013
• Portugal Bonds worst week since July 2011
• Greek stocks worst week since 1987

• U.S. stocks closed Friday with their biggest weekly decline in years, as the sustained drop in oil prices revived growth concerns.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 315.51 points, or 1.8%, to 17280.83. For the week, the Dow has lost 3.8%, the biggest weekly loss in percentage terms since 201
  • The S&P 500 declined 33.00 points, or 1.6% to 2002.33, for its biggest weekly loss since 2012.
  • The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 54.57 points, or 1.2%, to 4653.60.
  • Treasury prices staged their biggest weekly rally since 2012, pushing down the yield on the 10-year note to 2.102%.
• International Energy Agency, which cut its estimate for global oil-demand growth.
• The benchmark U.S. oil price settled 3.6% lower at $57.81 a barrel.
• Investors fret that the 46% plunge in oil prices since June could be signaling that the global economy is slowing more quickly than data currently suggest.
• Strategists and investors said stocks were vulnerable to bad news after a seven-week rally that took major U.S. benchmarks to record highs.
• China on Friday reported lower-than-expected industrial production figures. The materials sector, which is closely tied to global economic growth, posted the steepest declines to close with a 2.9% loss.

CHINA - Global Hot Money Getting Out of Control! (BIS Warning)

Chinese stocks +33% in 6 weeks. Economy slowing, house prices falling, credit + bad loans rising... seems rational

BUYBACKS - Cash to Stockholders Now Exceeds 90% of Profits

BUYBACKS - Q3 Buybacks Surge 30% to $145B

With Q3 Buybacks Surging, These Are The Top 20 Repurchasers Of Their Own Stock 12-08-14 Zero Hedge

Back in September, when we looked at the total amount of stock buybacks by S&P 500 companies, we observed that the "Buyback Party Is Over: Stock Repurchases Tumble In The Second Quarter" - according to CapIQ data, after soaring to a record $160 billion in Q1, the amount of repurchased stock dropped 20% to "only" $110 billion, which perhaps also explains why the market went absolutely nowhere in the spring and early summer. Our conclusion was that, if indeed this was the end of the buyback party, then "the Fed will have no choice but to step in again, and the central-planning game can restart again from square 1, until finally the Fed's already tenuous credibility is lost, the abuse of the USD's reserve status will no longer be a possibility, and the final repricing of assets to their true levels can begin."

As it turns out our conclusion that it's all over was premature (with the Fed getting some breathing room thanks to desperate corner offices eager to pump up their CEO's equity-linked compensation), and as the just concluded Q3 earnings seasons confirms, what went down, promptly soared right back up, with stock repurchases in Q3 surging by 30% following the 30% drop in Q2, and nearly offsetting all the lost "corporate wealth creation" in the second quarter, with the total amount of stock repurchases by S&P 500 companies jumping from $112 billion to $145 billion, just shy of the Q1 record, and the second highest single quarter repurhcase tally going back to 2007, and before.

So who are the most glaring offenders of engaging in what James Montier calls the "World's Dumbest Idea", i.e., maximizing shareholder value almost entirely through buybacks?

Here are the 20 S&P corporations who repurchased the most stock in Q3...

... And in 2014 through the end of Q3.

Incidentally these are also some of the best big name "performers" this year. When the wind turns and the selling begins, we urge everyone to short these names first.

DRIVERS - Global USD Short Squeeze Underway

RISK - Something is Broken Somewhere

US stock market indices have become massively decoupled from the bond and credit markets. 12-08-14 Zero Hedge

Both short-term and long-term, the large liquid US stock market indices have become massively decoupled from the bond and credit markets. Since the former is supposed to discount a combination of the latter (macro growth/de-growth from bonds and micro business-risk/cash-flow-sustainability from credit), one has to wonder which reality will come to pass...

Short-term...

Long-term...

Do either of these charts look 'normal'? Sustainable?

*  *  *

Simply put - for American companies, despite the fall in Treasury yields, the cost of borrowing (i.e. interest rates) has already started to increase rather dramatically and that's not just energy names.

Charts: Bloomberg

*  *  *

Don't worry though, it's different this time...

PATTERNS - Markets Steadily Breaking Down

Not only materials & mining sectors but also now dividend-paying, REIT & financial sectors are turning lower on the financial markets.

Energy investors have found themselves in a nightmare the past few months (black arrow below). It is the same nightmare that materials and mining investors (green, blue and brown arrows) have been living through since 2011 as:

• Global demand turned down,
• Excess supply piled up and
• Earnings evaporated.

Now the same nightmare is stalking the last late cycle sectors left hovering at hideous valuations:

• Dividend paying (purple),
• REITs (orange) and
• Financials (red lines shown below).

As these sectors also finally give up on the dream that QE could prop up a sagging economy, the 2009 lows beckon prices, and the broad market TSX (grey line,) back to reality.

RISK - Breaks in Trend Line Support

"I Wouldn't Be Surprised to See Stocks Crash" 12-09-14 Graham Summers Phoeneix Capital

Weeks ago, we first warned that the collapse in Oil was a BIG sign of trouble brewing in the financial system.

Indeed, in the larger picture, Oil just called “BS” on the whole claim that any economic growth or recovery post-2009 was legitimate. For five years, Oil prices remained elevated, suggesting that there was some kind of economic recovery underway… that there was growth, however anemic.

We now know that this was total nonsense. Oil has lost 40%+ of its price in less than four months. This is a CLEAR SIGNAL that the 2009-2014 asset price bubble is bursting.

Other asset classes are preparing to follow suit. Commodities across the board are collapsing to the downside…

Copper is closely aligned with the global economy. It just broke out of a massive 5-year pattern to the downside. I expect we’ll see this collapse accelerate in the coming weeks… just like Oil.

What does this all mean? What we’ve been saying for years now… that the entire “recovery” story was total BS and that the Fed has made things worse than before. As always, stocks are the last to “get it.” But I wouldn’t be surprised to see a crash in stocks in the coming months.

FINANCIAL REPRESSION - Wall Street Moves to Put Taxpayers on the Hook for Derivatives Trades

They would allow financial institutions to trade certain financial derivatives from subsidiaries that are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. — potentially putting taxpayers on the hook for losses caused by the risky contracts. Big Wall Street banks had typically traded derivatives from these FDIC-backed units, but the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform law required them to move many of the transactions to other subsidiaries that are not insured by taxpayers.

Wall Street Moves to Put Taxpayers on the Hook for Derivatives Trades 12-05-14 Michael Krieger, Liberty Blitzkrieg

Wall Street has for some time attempted to put taxpayers on the hook for its derivatives trades.

READ:  Citigroup Written Legislation Moves Through the House of Representatives. Here’s an excerpt:

Five years after the Wall Street coup of 2008, it appears the U.S. House of Representatives is as bought and paid for as ever. We heard about the Citigroup crafted legislation currently being pushed through Congress back in May when Mother Jones reported on it. Fortunately, they included the following image in their article:

Click to Enlarge

Unsurprisingly, the main backer of the bill is notorious Wall Street lackey Jim Himes (D-Conn.), a former Goldman Sachs employee who has discovered lobbyist payoffs can be just as lucrative as a career in financial services. The last time Mr. Himes made an appearance on these pages was in March 2013 in my piece: Congress Moves to DEREGULATE Wall Street.

Fortunately, that bill never made it to a vote on the Senate floor, but now Wall Street is trying to sneak this into a bill needed to keep the government running. You can’t make this stuff up. From the Huffington Post:

WASHINGTON — Wall Street lobbyists are trying to secure taxpayer backing for many derivatives trades as part of budget talks to avert a government shutdown.

According to multiple Democratic sources, banks are pushing hard to include the controversial provision in funding legislation that would keep the government operating after Dec. 11. Top negotiators in the House are taking the derivatives provision seriously, and may include it in the final bill, the sources said.

The bank perks are not a traditional budget item. They would allow financial institutions to trade certain financial derivatives from subsidiaries that are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. — potentially putting taxpayers on the hook for losses caused by the risky contracts. Big Wall Street banks had typically traded derivatives from these FDIC-backed units, but the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform law required them to move many of the transactions to other subsidiaries that are not insured by taxpayers.

Last year, Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) introduced the same provision under debate in the current budget talks. The legislative text was written by a Citigroup lobbyist, according to The New York Times. The bill passed the House by a vote of 292 to 122 in October 2013, 122 Democrats opposed, and 70 in favor. All but three House Republicans supported the bill.

It wasn’t clear whether the derivatives perk will survive negotiations in the House, or if the Senate will include it in its version of the bill. With Democrats voting nearly 2-to-1 against the bill in the House, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) never brought the bill up for a vote in the Senate.

Remember what Wall Street wants, Wall Street gets.

FLOWS - 6 Years Of Central Bank Liquidity Injections

This Is What 6 Years Of Central Bank Liquidity Injections Look Like 12-09-14 Zero Hedge

Curious how over the past 6 years we got to a point where the market is now so irreparably broken, even the BIS couldn't take it anymore and threw up all over the the world's central bankers? Then look no further than the following chart summarizing 6 years of global central bank liquidity injections that have made it imperative to use quotation marks every time one writes the word "market"

Source: BlackRock

FLOWS - Austrian Money Supply Growth Sending Early Warning

SOURCE

The U.S. Money Supply Decelerates in October, the Risk of an Economic Bust Just Went Up 11-16-14 Forbes

The U.S. money supply as represented by TMS2 (True “Austrian” Money Supply), our broadest and preferred U.S. money supply aggregate, posted a year-over-year rate of growth of 7.7% in October, down from an 8.3% rate in September. Now down 880 basis points (53%) from the current boom-bust monetary inflation cycle high of 16.5% posted in November 2009, this is the lowest year-over-year rate of growth in TMS2 since the 6.9% rate seen in November 2008 (month 4 in this 75 month long and counting inflation cycle). As a result, although we are not yet ready to declare that the economy is staring at an imminent bust in the face, this decelerating trend in the rate of monetary inflation is bringing us ever so closer to one. To investors and speculators alike, we say time to be especially cautious.

Here’s the current growth rate in TMS2 in the context of the last 20 year experience…

Defined by how we measure boom-bust monetary inflation cycles (by the year-over-year rate of change in TMS2, cycle trough to trough), here is how the current inflation cycle – what we have termed the Bernanke Risk-On Boom – Bust-to-Be – stacks up against the inflation cycles that gave us the Tech Boom-Bust and the Housing Boom-Bust turn Credit Bust turn Great Recession…

As readers of THE CONTRARIAN TAKE are aware, given the size of the monetary largesse injected into the economy during this inflation cycle, this kind of deceleration in the rate of monetary inflation is a huge yellow light for both the economy and markets. If it continues, a bust awaits. As we have written in the past…

…once an economy is subjected to a bout of monetary inflation, whether that be via direct central bank money creation or via money (and credit) creation by the fractional reserve banking system, an unsustainable, artificial economic boom is born, whereby malinvestments (bubbles if you like) are created that sooner or later must be liquidated. And whether that bust takes the form of a hyperinflationary bust or a deflationary bust, bust we will get. The form the bust takes will depend on the course of the inflation. If the central bank/banking system pursues an inflationary course, by throwing continual and importantly ever larger doses of money (and credit) into the economy, the bust will take the form of a hyperinflationary bust – a collapse in the value of the currency and with that a breakdown of the entire economy. If instead the central bank/banking system ends its money creation activities or even moderates that increase in a material way, the bust will take the form of a deflationary bust – a healthy liquidation of the malinvestments made during the boom and with that a commensurate fall in the prices of those same malinvestments.

What’s more…

…the greater the monetary infusions into the economy and financial markets, and thus the more they permeate the same economy and markets, the more malinvestments will be created and therefore the broader and deeper the eventual liquidation will be.

In other words…

…the bigger the monetary boom, the bigger the bust.

Yes, at 7.7%, the year-over-year rate of growth in TMS2 is not sporting the same sub 5% year-over year rates that ushered in the last two busts.  But consider this: The latest installment of the Federal Reserve’s QE asset purchase program is history with the last $15 billion in asset purchases now complete. Over the last 12 months, that program accounted for roughly three quarters of the growth in TMS2. And while the U.S. banking system, the other money creation engine in the economy, has of late been helping to offset the money creation void being vacated by the Federal Reserve, it is going to have to really step it up to ward of a continuing deceleration in the overall the rate of money creation. If not, we could very well be staring a bust directly in the face.

As for market investors and speculators, consider also this: As we wrote here and here, the financial markets have seen the lion’s share of the monetary inflation this cycle, more so than in any cycle in history.  That makes them especially vulnerable to a deceleration in the rate of monetary inflation, more so than at any other time in history…

A friend of THE CONTRARIAN TAKE took a shot at what’s in store for the money supply, factoring in both Federal Reserve and U.S. banking system dynamics. We think it’s well worth a read.

We will have a lot more to say about this same topic in our next post.

For the logic behind the formulation of the True “Austrian” Money Supply (TMS) and it’s superiority to mainstream money supply measures, read Money Supply Metrics, the Austrian Take.

For a link to TMS series definitions, along with sources, notes and supporting academic references, see True “Austrian” Money Supply Definitions, Sources, Notes and References.

For a perma-link to the data series itself, where we track monthly money supply metrics for the U.S., Eurozone, Japan and U.K. currency blocks, see True “Austrian” Money Supply.

RETAIL CRE - U.S. Department Stores a Wider Economic Threat

Stressed U.S. Department Stores a Wider Economic Threat 12-08-14 Bloomberg Brief

DRIVER$ - Sudden market swings, dollar rise expose emerging market vulnerability: BIS

(Reuters) - Sudden swings in financial markets recently suggest they are becoming more fragile and sensitive to unexpected events, the global organization of central banks said on Sunday, warning that a rising U.S. dollar could have a "profound impact" on emerging markets in particular.

MSCI's all-country world stock index is hovering around multi-year highs after rebounding from sell-offs in August and October.

    The downturns were triggered by uncertainty over the global economic outlook and monetary policy, as well as geopolitical tensions, and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said the sharp and sudden dips pointed to frailty in the markets.

    "These abrupt market movements (in October) were even more pronounced than similar developments in August, when a sudden correction in global financial markets was quickly succeeded by renewed buoyant market conditions," the BIS said.

    "This suggests that more than a quantum of fragility underlies the current elevated mood in financial markets," it said in its quarterly review. "Global equity markets plummeted in early August and mid-October. Mid-October's extreme intra-day price movements underscore how sensitive markets have become to even small surprises."

    The comments followed the organization's warning in September that financial asset prices were at "elevated" levels and market volatility remained "exceptionally subdued" thanks to ultra-loose monetary policies being implemented by central banks around the world.

Since then, the U.S. Federal Reserve has brought its monthly bond-purchase program to an expected end. However, Japan's central bank has expanded its massive stimulus spending while China unexpectedly cut interest rates, adding to stimulus measures from the European Central Bank.

These divergent monetary policies [US' TAPER ending and Japan's Massive new stimulus], coupled with the dollar's recent appreciation, could have a profound impact on the global economy, particularly in emerging markets where many companies have large dollar-denominated liabilities, the BIS said.

"It's the warning that the rising dollar could bring more (emerging markets) trouble in its wake - as it did in the 1990s - that is going to challenge FX markets tomorrow morning while we're all thinking about what the U.S. non-farm payroll data mean for Fed rate hike timing," Societe Generale's currency strategist Kit Juckes told clients in a note on Sunday.

Juckes was referring to the larger-than-expected 321,000 rise in U.S. jobs in November reported on Friday, data which sent the dollar to multi-year highs against the yen and euro.

Separately, the BIS report said that international banking activity expanded for the second quarter running between end-March and end-June.

Cross-border claims of BIS reporting banks rose by $401 billion. The annual growth rate of cross-border claims rose to 1.2 percent in the year to end-June, the first move into positive territory since late 2011.

(Editing by Pravin Char and Rosalind Russell)

FT HEADLINE 12-09-14

DRIVER$ -Dollar surge endangers global debt edifice, warns BIS

WE WARNED OF THE US$ CARRY BOOMERANG IN 2013

DRIVER$ - USD & Energy

USD

The $9 TRILLION Crash Gains & Pains

The financial world focuses far too much on stocks. The stock market, despite being at record highs (meaning record market capitalizations) remains one of the smallest, and least sophisticated markets on the planet. Consider that stocks, even at current lofty levels, have a global market capitalization of slightly over $60 trillion.

In contrast, the global bond market is well over $100 trillion. And the global currency market trades OVER $5.3 trillion per day.

It is currencies, not stocks, where the most significant moves occur. The currency markets are the largest, most liquid markets in the world. They are always first to move when things change. Stocks are the DUMB money compared to currencies.

So who cares?

Everyone should care, because, globally, the world is awash in borrowed money… most of it in US Dollars.

When you BORROW in US Dollars you are effectively SHORTING the US Dollar. So when the US Dollar rallies… you have to cover your SHORT or you blow up.

I’ve written before about this problem. Last month I projected that the US Dollar carry trade (borrowing in US Dollars to finance other investments) was the largest carry trade in the world. At that time I believed the US Dollar carry trade is believed to be north of $3 trillion.

I was WRONG… WAY, WAY WRONG. It’s MANY MULTIPLES LARGER THAN THAT.

Off-shore lending in US dollars has soared to $9 trillion and poses a growing risk to both emerging markets and the world's financial stability, the Bank for International Settlements has warned.

SOURCE: the TELEGRAPH.

The US Dollar carry trade is north of $9 trillion… literally than the economies of Germany and Japan COMBINED.

And the US Dollar is rallying… HARD.

The fact that Oil is imploding at the same time this happens is not coincidence. Oil producers and explorers were financing their projects using what? BORROWED DOLLARS.

This is going to begin seeping into emerging markets and other assets soon. Imagine what the world would look like if $9 trillion worth of shorted Dollars had to be covered? Imagine the SELL PRESSURE this would induce in all other assets.

Just like 2008.

OIL - WTI

QE allows more borrowing from the future than would be possible if market interest rates really had to be paid. This allows financiers to temporarily disguise a growing problem of un-affordability of oil and other commodities.

The problem we have is that, because we live in a finite world, we reach a point where it becomes more expensive to produce commodities of many kinds: oil (deeper wells, fracking), coal (farther from markets, so more transport costs), metals (poorer ore quality), fresh water (desalination needed), and food (more irrigation needed). Wages don’t rise correspondingly, because more and more labor is needed to provide less and less actual benefit, in terms of the commodities produced and goods made from those commodities. Thus, workers find themselves becoming poorer and poorer, in terms of what they can afford to purchase.

QE allows financiers to disguise growing mismatch between what it costs to produce commodities, and what customers can really afford. Thus, QE allows commodity prices to rise to levels that are unaffordable by customers, unless customers’ lack of income is disguised by a continued growth in debt.

Once commodity prices (including oil prices) fall to levels that are affordable based on the incomes of customers, they fall to levels that cut out a large share of production of these commodities. As commodity production drops to levels that can be produced at affordable prices, so does the world’s ability to make goods and services. Unfortunately, the goods whose production is likely to be cut back if commodity production is cut back are those of every kind, including houses, cars, food, and electrical transmission equipment.

Conclusion

There are really two different problems that a person can be concerned about:

1. Peak oil: the possibility that oil prices will rise, and because of this production will fall in a rounded curve. Substitutes that are possible because of high prices will perhaps take over.
2. Debt related collapse: oil limits will play out in a very different way than most have imagined, through lower oil prices as limits to growth in debt are reached, and thus a collapse in oil “demand” (reallyaffordability). The collapse in production, when it comes, will be sharper and will affect the entire economy, not just oil.

In my view, a rapid drop in oil prices is likely a symptom that we are approaching a debt-related collapse - in other words, the second of these two problems. Underlying this debt-related collapse is the fact that we seem to be reaching the limits of a finite world. There is a growing mismatch between what workers in oil importing countries can afford, and the rising real costs of extraction, including associated governmental costs. This has been covered up to date by rising debt, but at some point, it will not be possible to keep increasing the debt sufficiently.

The timing of collapse may not be immediate. Low oil prices take a while to work their way through the system. It is also possible that the world’s financiers will put off a major collapse for a while longer, through more QE, or more programs related to QE. For example, actually getting money into the hands of customers would seem to be temporarily helpful.

At some point the debt situation will eventually reach a breaking point. One way this could happen is through an increase in interest rates. If this happens, world economic growth is likely to slow greatly. Oil and commodity prices will fall further. Debt defaults will skyrocket. Not only will oil production drop, but production of many other commodities will drop, including natural gas and coal. In such a scenario, the downslope of all energy use is likely to be quite steep, perhaps similar to what is shown in the following chart.

Figure 5. Estimate of future energy production by author. Historical data based on BP adjusted to IEA groupings.

Related Articles:

Low Oil Prices: Sign of a Debt Bubble Collapse, Leading to the End of Oil Supply?

WSJ Gets it Wrong on “Why Peak Oil Predictions Haven’t Come True”

Eight Pieces of Our Oil Price Predicament