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BOND BUBBLE
3
BOND BUBBLE - A Central Bank Priority When Debt Becomes Excessive
As we keep emphasizing, the Fed’s real concern is the bond bubble… NOT stocks.
We get more evidence of this from Janet Yellen’s press conference after the Fed’s Wednesday FOMC meeting.
During the conference, Yellen repeatedly stated that lower oil prices were “positive” for the US economy. This is simply astounding because the Fed has repeatedly told us time and again that it was IN-flation NOT DE-flation that was great for the economy.
And yet, on Wednesday, the head of the Fed admitted, in public, that deflation can in fact be positive.
How can deflation be both positive for the economy at the same time that the economy needs MORE inflation?
The answer is easy… Yellen doesn’t care about the economy. She cares about the US’s massive debt load AKA the BOND BUBBLE.
Yellen knows deflation is actually very good for consumers. Who doesn’t want cheaper housing or cheaper goods and services? In fact, deflation is actually the general order of things for the world: human innovation and creativity naturally works to increase productivity, which makes goods and services cheaper.
However, DEBT DEFLATION is a nightmare for the Fed because it would almost immediately bankrupt both the US and the Too Big To Fail Wall Street Banks. With the US sporting a Debt to GDP ratio of over 100%... and the Wall Street banks sitting on over $191 TRILLION worth of derivatives trades based on interest rates (bonds), the very last thing the Fed wants is even a WHIFF of debt deflation to hit the bond markets.
This is why the Fed is so obsessed with creating inflation: because it renders these gargantuan debt loads more serviceable. In simplest terms, the Fed must “inflate or die.” It will willingly sacrifice the economy, and Americans’ quality of life in order to stop the bond bubble from popping.
This is also why the Fed happily talks about stocks all the time; it’s a great distraction from the real story: the fact that the bond bubble is the single largest bubble in history and that when it bursts entire countries will go bust.
This is why the Fed NEEDS interest rates to be as low as possible… any slight jump in rates means that the US will rapidly spiral towards bankruptcy. Indeed, every 1% increase in interest rates means between $150-$175 billion more in interest payments on US debt per year.
If you’ve ever wondered how the Fed can claim inflation is a good thing… now you know. Inflation is bad for all of us… but it allows the US Government to spend money it doesn’t have without going bankrupt… YET.
However, this won’t last. All bubbles end. And when the global bond bubble bursts (currently standing at $100 trillion and counting) the entire system will implode.
12-20-14
US MONETARY
THESIS
3- Bond Bubble
TO TOP
MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week
US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS
CROMNIBUS - The Real Reason Why It Needed to be Passed
The Fed Is Sitting On a $191 TRILLION Time Bomb(
Stocks are bouncing today because the Fed will wrap up its monthly FOMC meeting and make a public statement this afternoon. Stocks have been rallying into FOMC meetings for the last three years, so traders are now conditioned to buy stocks in anticipation of this.
The prime focus for the markets is whether the Fed continues to state that it will raise rates after “a considerable time.” The reality is that the Fed cannot and will not raise rates anywhere near normal levels at any point because doing so would blow up the financial system.
Let’s walk through this together.
DEBT INTEREST PAYMENTS
Currently, the US has over $17 trillion in debt. The US can never pay this off. That is not some idle statement… we issued over $1 trillion in NEW debt in the last eight weeks simply because we don’t have the money to pay off the debt that is coming due from the past.
Since we don’t have that kind of money, the US is now simply issuing NEW debt to raise the money to pay back the OLD debt.
This is why the Fed NEEDS interest rates to be as low as possible… any slight jump in rates means that the US will rapidly spiral towards bankruptcy. Indeed, every 1% increase in interest rates means between $150-$175 billion more in interest payments on US debt per year.
So the Fed wants interest rates low because it makes the US’s debt load much more serviceable. This is why the Fed keeps screwing around with language like “after a considerable time” despite the fact that rates should already be markedly higher based on the Taylor Rule as well as the state of the US economy: it’s all a ruse to pretend the Fed has a real choice in the matter.
However, there’s an even bigger story here.
$236 TRILLION IN "PROTECTIVE STOPS"
Currently US banks are sitting on over $236 trillion in derivatives trades.
Of this, 81% ($191 TRILLION) are based on interest rates.
Put another way, currently US banks have bet an amount equal to over 1,100% of the US GDP on interest rates.
Guess which banks did this?
The BIG FIVE: JP Morgan, CitiGroup, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America.
In other words… the Too Big To Fails… the very banks that the Fed has bailed out, and done everything it can to prop up.
What are the odds that the Fed is going to raise rates significantly and risk blowing up these firms? Next to ZERO.
Forget about the Fed’s language and its FOMC meeting. The real story is the $100 trillion bond bubble (more like the $200 trillion interest rate bubble based on bonds). When it breaks, it doesn’t matter what the Fed says or does.
CROMNIBUS
Now you know why CROMNIBUS needed to be passed. (see our prior FINANCIAL REPRESSION notes on CROMNIBUS below)
12-18-14
RISK
US ECONOMICS
Market Analytics
TECHNICALS & MARKET ANALYTICS
FOMC MEETING - Possible Surprise "Wording" to Stop Potential Contagion
Not only did Citigroup and the rest of the big Wall Street banks succeed in gutting the “push-out” requirements of Dodd-Frank, thereby extending their lease to gamble in the derivatives market with FDIC (i.e. taxpayer) guaranteed money. Crony Capitalism also got a huge bonanza in the form of a 10X increase in the contribution limit to party committees. Now the heavy hitters can actually give $230,000 annually to the GOP and Dem campaign committees.
Once again congress set itself up for the usual midnight scramble behind closed doors where the pork barrel overflows and sundry K-street lobbies stick-up the joint and then demand immediate passage—–sight unseen—–in the name of keeping the Washington Monument open on the morrow.
There have been Wall Street hissy fits each and every time a shutdown loomed or happened. We now have governance by the robo-traders and gamblers who light up the trading screens 24/7.Washington’s utter nonchalance about this dangerous condition is owning to the tyranny of the Fed’s free money fueled Wall Street casino.
The market’s blistering but wholly unwarranted rise has lulled both Washington and Wall Street into the same delusion that set in during the final days of the dotcom bubble and then again at the peak of the housing and credit bubble during 2006-2008. Namely, that the business cycle has been suspended or repealed by the purported magicians at the Fed, and that, accordingly, the nirvana of permanent full employment prosperity is just around the corner.
Rosy Scenario as now embedded in the CBO projections, of course, will never materialize. CBO is currently projecting, with no embarrassment at all, that:
The US will go without a recession between 2009 and 2024;
That 16 million new jobs will be created over the next ten years compared to 3 million during the last decade;
That real GDP will grow at better than a 3% rate until we hit permanent full-employment compared to just 1.7% per year since the turn of the century;
That wages and salaries will grow at a 5.3% rate during the next decade compared to 3% during the prior 10 years.
12-16-14
THESIS
FINANCIAL REPRESSION
FINANCIAL REPRESSION -Banks Remove the "Heart" of Dodd-Frank
Financial Repression
Banks Remove the "Heart" of Dodd-Frank
6 years of highly visible Dodd-Frank legislation and thousands of lines of regulation, with no public debate, was just quietly removed and "neutered" by the stealth of an "Ear-Mark".
To maintain government financing the banks have held Washington hostage.
Maintain our profit margins and have the public accept the risk of $3003 TRILLION or..... else!
The Bill (yet another 'Ear-Mark') allows financial institutions to trade certain financial derivatives from subsidiaries that are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. — potentially putting taxpayers on the hook for losses caused by the risky contracts. Big Wall Street banks had typically traded derivatives from these FDIC-backed units, but the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform law required them to move many of the transactions to other subsidiaries that are not insured by taxpayers.
“It is because there is a lot of money at stake,” Johnson said. “They want to be able to take big risks where they get the upside and the taxpayer gets the potential downside,”
Decency, security, and liberty alike demand that government officials shall be subjected to the same rules of conduct that are commands to the citizen. In a government of laws, existence of the government will be imperiled if it fails to observe the law scrupulously. Our government is the potent, the omnipresent teacher. For good or for ill, it teaches the whole people by its example. Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy. To declare that in the administration of the criminal law the end justifies the means — to declare that the government may commit crimes in order to secure the conviction of a private criminal — would bring terrible retribution. Against that pernicious doctrine this court should resolutely set its face.
– Louis Brandeis, Supreme Court Justice, in 1928
While most Americans are busy Christmas shopping and making preparations for trips to see family, Congress remains hard at work doing what it does best. Giving gifts to Wall Street and trampling on citizens’ civil liberties.
Remember what Wall Street wants, Wall Street gets. Have a great weekend chumps.
Naturally, Wall Street got what it wanted. In fact, this provision was so important to the financial oligarchs that Jaime Dimon called around to encourage our (Wall Street’s) representatives to support it. The Washington Post reports that:
The acrimony that erupted Thursday between President Obama and members of his own party largely pivoted on a single item in a 1,600-page piece of legislation to keep the government funded: Should banks be allowed to make risky investments using taxpayer-backed money?
The very idea was abhorrent to many Democrats on Capitol Hill. And some were stunned that the White House would support the bill with that provision intact, given that it would erase a key provision of the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation, one of Obama’s signature achievements.
But perhaps even more outrageous to Democrats was that the language in the bill appeared to come directly from the pens of lobbyists at the nation’s biggest banks, aides said. The provision was so important to the profits at those companies that J.P.Morgan’s chief executive Jamie Dimon himself telephoned individual lawmakers to urge them to vote for it, according to a person familiar with the effort.
The nation’s biggest banks — led by Citigroup, J.P. Morgan and Bank of America — have been lobbying for the change in Dodd Frank, which had given them a period of years to comply. Trade associations representing banks, the Financial Services Roundtable and the American Bankers Association, emphasized that regional banks are supportive of the change as well.
But the regulatory change could also boost the profits of major banks, which is why they are pushing so hard for passage, said Simon Johnson, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund and a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management.
“It is because there is a lot of money at stake,” Johnson said. “They want to be able to take big risks where they get the upside and the taxpayer gets the potential downside,” he said.
While that’s bad enough, the lame duck Congress clearly didn’t consider its job done without legislating away the 4th Amendment. Here is some of what one of the only decent members of Congress, Justin Amash, wrote on Facebook:
When I learned that the Intelligence Authorization Act for FY 2015 was being rushed to the floor for a vote—with little debate and only a voice vote expected (i.e., simply declared “passed” with almost nobody in the room)—I asked my legislative staff to quickly review the bill for unusual language. What they discovered is one of the most egregious sections of law I’ve encountered during my time as a representative: It grants the executive branch virtually unlimited access to the communications of every American.
On Wednesday afternoon, I went to the House floor to demand a roll call vote on the bill so that everyone’s vote would have to be recorded. I also sent the letter below to every representative.
With more time to spread the word, we would have stopped this bill, which passed 325-100. Thanks to the 99 other representatives—44 Republicans and 55 Democrats—who voted to protect our rights and uphold the Constitution. And thanks to my incredibly talented staff.
###
Block New Spying on U.S. Citizens: Vote “NO” on H.R. 4681
Dear Colleague:
The intelligence reauthorization bill, which the House will vote on today, contains a troubling new provision that for the first time statutorily authorizes spying on U.S. citizens without legal process.
Last night, the Senate passed an amended version of the intelligence reauthorization bill with a new Sec. 309—one the House never has considered. Sec. 309 authorizes “the acquisition, retention, and dissemination” of nonpublic communications, including those to and from U.S. persons. The section contemplates that those private communications of Americans, obtained without a court order, may be transferred to domestic law enforcement for criminal investigations.
To be clear, Sec. 309 provides the first statutory authority for the acquisition, retention, and dissemination of U.S. persons’ private communications obtained without legal process such as a court order or a subpoena. The administration currently may conduct such surveillance under a claim of executive authority, such as E.O. 12333. However, Congress never has approved of using executive authority in that way to capture and use Americans’ private telephone records, electronic communications, or cloud data.
FINANCIAL REPRESSION - Wall Street Moves to Put Taxpayers on the Hook for Derivatives Trades
They would allow financial institutions to trade certain financial derivatives from subsidiaries that are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. — potentially putting taxpayers on the hook for losses caused by the risky contracts. Big Wall Street banks had typically traded derivatives from these FDIC-backed units, but the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform law required them to move many of the transactions to other subsidiaries that are not insured by taxpayers.
Five years after the Wall Street coup of 2008, it appears the U.S. House of Representatives is as bought and paid for as ever. We heard about the Citigroup crafted legislation currently being pushed through Congress back in May when Mother Jones reported on it. Fortunately, they included the following image in their article:
Unsurprisingly, the main backer of the bill is notorious Wall Street lackey Jim Himes (D-Conn.), a former Goldman Sachs employee who has discovered lobbyist payoffs can be just as lucrative as a career in financial services. The last time Mr. Himes made an appearance on these pages was in March 2013 in my piece: Congress Moves to DEREGULATE Wall Street.
Fortunately, that bill never made it to a vote on the Senate floor, but now Wall Street is trying to sneak this into a bill needed to keep the government running. You can’t make this stuff up. From the Huffington Post:
WASHINGTON — Wall Street lobbyists are trying to secure taxpayer backing for many derivatives trades as part of budget talks to avert a government shutdown.
According to multiple Democratic sources, banks are pushing hard to include the controversial provision in funding legislation that would keep the government operating after Dec. 11.Top negotiators in the House are taking the derivatives provision seriously, and may include it in the final bill, the sources said.
The bank perks are not a traditional budget item. They would allow financial institutions to trade certain financial derivatives from subsidiaries that are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. — potentially putting taxpayers on the hook for losses caused by the risky contracts. Big Wall Street banks had typically traded derivatives from these FDIC-backed units, but the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform law required them to move many of the transactions to other subsidiaries that are not insured by taxpayers.
Last year, Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) introduced the same provision under debate in the current budget talks. The legislative text was written by a Citigroup lobbyist, according to The New York Times. The bill passed the House by a vote of 292 to 122 in October 2013, 122 Democrats opposed, and 70 in favor. All but three House Republicans supported the bill.
It wasn’t clear whether the derivatives perk will survive negotiations in the House, or if the Senate will include it in its version of the bill. With Democrats voting nearly 2-to-1 against the bill in the House, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) never brought the bill up for a vote in the Senate.
Remember what Wall Street wants, Wall Street gets.
Global Liquidity is getting tight. Consequently, our global economic raft is once again beginning to sink.
Commodity prices are falling,
The consumer price inflation numbers are weakening in all the major economies and
Asset prices (particularly overvalued equities prices) look increasingly vulnerable to a sharp correction.
Without a fourth round of Quantitative Easing the global economy could well be sucked down into a deflationary whirlpool next year.
I have recently uploaded three Macro Watch videos analyzing the outlook for global liquidity:
1. The Outlook For Global Liquidity Points To Deflation Ahead;
2. Analyzing The Five Largest Central Banks; and
3. FX Reserves, The Dollar Crisis & The Outlook For Global Liquidity.
To measure global liquidity, I took the total assets of the five largest central banks (the People’s Bank of China, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England) plus the total foreign exchange reserves of the world’s other central banks and projected this data out to the end of 2016 based on current central bank guidance. Here’s what that looks like:
Looking out to 2015 and 2016:
the Fed’s balance sheet flattens out since Quantitative Easing has (supposedly) ended.
The BOJ’s assets increase at the rate of Yen 85 trillion a year.
The ECB’s assets expand back to the level reached in 2012.
The numbers for the PBOC are my estimates and assume that China’s central bank will continue accumulating large amounts of foreign exchange reserves in order to prevent the country’s huge trade surplus from pushing up the value of the Yuan.
Now, by adding all of those assets together, we can calculate the annual percent increase in global liquidity, as shown below:
Notice that at present (the end of 2014), global liquidity has only increased by 5% relative to one year ago.
At the peak of the crisis, in 2008 and 2009, global liquidity expanded by 25% to 40% a year.
During 2011, it grew by 15% to 20%.
Even before the crisis began, global liquidity grew by 15% during much of 2004 and 2005.
Therefore, the current growth rate of only 5% is very much less than what the global economy and the financial markets have grown accustomed to.
Looking ahead, thanks to printing by the BOJ and the ECB, the growth rate will pick up to 8% or 9% at the end of 2015, but then move back down again to 7% by the end of 2016. As the base grows larger, it becomes necessary to print more and more money every year to prevent the growth rate in global liquidity from slowing. And, of course, if the growth rate does not remain high, the additional liquidity ceases to provide sufficient monetary stimulus to keep the global economy inflated.
After 2016, if we assume that the BOJ and the ECB eventually end their quantitative easing programs, the growth rate of global liquidity will slow rapidly and soon come to a relative standstill. Global asset prices and the global economy were reflated after 2008 by an unprecedented amount of fiat money creation by the world’s central banks. If that monetary stimulus ends, asset prices are very likely to deflate again and the global economy is likely to begin spiraling back toward depression.
Ultimately, it may prove impossible to keep the global economic bubble inflated, but the Fed almost certainly won’t allow it to deflate without at least attempting QE 4 and possibly QE 5, 6 and 7.
I believe it’s only a matter of time before the Fed turns back on its printing presses.
In a statement, McDonald's said it was "diligently working to enhance its market, simplify the menu, and implement a more locally driven organizational structure to increase relevance with consumers."
The disappointing numbers from McDonald's come as the chain faces increasing competition from restaurants like Chipotle. Last week we noted that even the Federal Reserve's fieldwork on the US economy showed the consumer shift toward outlets like Chipotle and away from chains like McDonald's.
Business Insider's Ashley Lutz reported that McDonald's CEO Don Thompson noted the shift in consumer attitudes that have plagued the company, and almost exactly described what it's like to eat at Chipotle.
"Customers want to personalize their meals with locally relevant ingredients," Thompson said. "They also want to enjoy eating in a contemporary, inviting atmosphere. And they want choices — choices in how they order, choices in what they order, and how they’re served."
When it comes to the fair value of assets, especially cash-flow generating real estate, few are as qualified to opine as the man dubbed “World’s Richest Restaurateur”, billionaire Tilman Fertitta, chairman of Landry's Restaurants which counts among its properties such brand names as Morton’s, Rainforest Cafe, Bubba Gump Shrimp Co., McCormick & Schmick’s, Saltgrass Steak House, Claim Jumper, Chart House, The Oceanaire, Mastro’s Restaurants, Vic & Anthony’s Steakhouse and many more.
Which is why his dire warning about the state of the "crazy" US real estate market, which he believes set for an imminent crash, are likely worth keeping in mind as all the panglossian permabulls see nothing but a 4th dead housing cat rebound ahead. That, and his take on inflation: "There is huge inflation going on right now."
From his interview on Bloomberg TV yesterday:
Fertitta: You are seeing crazy numbers from real estate. You are seeing it New York probably more than anywhere else; you are seeing it in Texas; you are seeing it in California. History always repeats itself, but I think it's going to repeat a little sooner this time. You see it coming.
Q. You smell a crash in the real estate market?
Fertitta: Absolutely I do. I can see it in Houston right now.
Q. It's going to be 1986 all over again?
Fertitta: Absolutely. It didn't come back in Texas until 1996, it took 10 years for it to happen in Texas.
For all those who see nothing but blue skies from falling crude prices, here is Fertitta's contrarian view: "Oil needs to hit $50/barrell for it to cause a total crash."
Oops.
Finally, for the deflation truthers, here is what Fertitta had to say about inflation:
Ben Bernanke was at Rich Handler's house and he says "there' no inflation." Well go buy something, whether at the grocery store, the drug store, the broom and mop store, and there is inflation everywhere. I have so many types of businesses so I buy everything from labor, to mops, to food, to shrimp, to stake and everything is more expensive. We are raising prices: that's why right now you pay more for an airline ticket, you pay more for a hotel room, you pay more for a pot of coffee. There is huge inflation going on right now.
Somehow we doubt he will appear on CNBC any time soon
STRATEGY - WAIT FOR THE REIT PLAY TO UNFOLD
=> SPIN-OFF
=> GOOSE STOCK + CASH
=> CASH FOR BUYBACKS
McDonald's shares are rallying on a rumor that Bill Ackman is taking a stake in the company, and pushing for the fast food giant to spin properties off into a tax-efficient real estate investment trust. The stock is up 3 percent in two days on the chatter.
The rumor revolves around the idea that Ackman would push McDonald's to create a REIT with all the property it holds. However, given that it rents out many of those properties to franchisees, performing such a maneuver could prove untenable.
NOTE: 80% of Stores Are Owned by Franchisees NOT McDonalds
3 days ago - An unconfirmed rumor is sending McDonald's shares and options soaring. ... food giant to spin properties off into a tax-efficient real estate investment trust. ... to franchisees, performing such a maneuver could prove untenable.
Dec 1, 2021 - There is however a private real estate investment trust (REIT) owned by a group of McDonald's suppliers. Originally it was six of the larger ..
Late last month, McDonald's Corp. said it has no plans to undertake a large-scale restructuring, either through a spinoff or a real estate investment trust. ... all of its profits from being a landlord and licensing its brand in return for franchise fees.
Jul 18, 2021 - Under the franchising umbrella, McDonalds has a conventional ..... Suggestions include setting up a real estate investment trust (or REIT)
Jul 23, 2021 - Oak Brook, Illinois- McDonald's Corp. leads a double life. ... company more control over its store base and franchisees than its competitors have. ... off its property holdings into a real estate investment trust (REIT) and using the ...
Morningstar Analyst On McDonald's: Activist Investor Could Push For Management ... Says A McDonald's REIT Spinoff Could Cause Disruption For Franchisees ... Equity real estate investment trust (REIT) exchange traded funds (ETFs) are an ...
Apr 28, 2021 - Real estate holdings more than side dish for fast-food giant ... off its property holdings into a real estate investment trust (REIT) and ... So, McDonald's began leasing restaurant sites and letting franchisees own the buildings.
Real Estate News - McDonald's franchise owner 'buys ...
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