Investing in Macro Tipping Points

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2015 DRIVERS - 5 Macro Themes to Watch

5-Big Things Happen - When Collateral Contagion, Counter Party Risk and Margin Calls Increase.

WHAT DE-LEVERAGING? IT SIMPLY NEVER HAPPENED!

The Leverage in the Financial Markets and on Wall Street has only continued to grow.

Here is a chart of the incredible growth in leveraged loans outstanding ..  although they are backed by assets of borrowers, they fund a lot of private equity leveraged buyouts & M&As where the borrowers have a limited track record.

THE GOVERNMENT MUST ACCELERATE DEBT GROWTH IN TARGET AREAS

EXCESS LEVERAGE

We have rehypothecation building bad collateral on bad collateral supporting debt that cannot be repaid and is being 'rolled pover' at shrinking financing rates to keep the debt edifice alive.

It will eventaully implde from malinvestment and non performing loan grrowth that cannot be rolled.

EXCESS LEVERAGE BUILT ON SHAKEY COLLATERAL

THIS CAN BE EXPECTED TO END BADLY

2015 DRIVERS - 5 Macro Themes to Watch

4-Big Things Happen - When Investment Greed and Euphoria SHIFTS to Fear and Panic.

Meanwhile the San Francisco Fed Warns US Equity Valuations Will Be Cut In Half In Next Decade -" "the retirement of the baby boomers is expected to severely cut U.S. stock values in the near future,"

'BEARS' HAVE BECOME EXTINCT

It has been decades since we have seen such a capitualtion from "bears".

Clearly everyone is now on the same side of the ship which is notoriously destabilizing.

There is presently no "uninvested" cash normally kept for protection against redemptions. If panic happens there is little buffer protection.

COMPLACENCY ALWAYS PRECEEDS MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONTINUING TO RISE

The latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment continues to rise as it marches the highs seen prior to the 2008 Financial Crisis.

WHY US EQUITIES ARE GOING HIGHER

US Equties have been going higher because of multiple expansion. Multiples normally expand when Earnings growth is rising faster than sales growth. A compnay is seen to be adding value at a faster rate.

• Earnings have been rising primarily due to the reduction in the number of shares outstanding. Buybacks and Dividends consumed 90% of the latest quarters earnings for the S&P 500. Where is the capital investment to sustain earnings?
• The cash to buyback shares has been dominately coming from tax deductible debt increases to buyback shares and reduce dividend payouts on the reduced share count.
• Top line growth has been shrinking which makes earnings growth appear even better.

THIS WILL ALL CHANGE SOMETIME IN 2015

Presently those making money in the markets are the ones expressing confidence - not "mainstreet"

Investment Greed and Euphoria historically, normally SHIFTS to Fear and Panic in a CYCLICAL fashion.

Guess where we might best describe where we are now?

2015 DRIVERS - 5 Macro Themes to Watch

3- Big Things Happen - When Geo-Political Conflicts Dominate the Nightly News SoundBites.

PUTIN - THE NEW COLDER WAR

In Putin's last two major media events he has dramatically raised the rhetoric regarding the mounting Russia-USA conflict. It is very reministic of the Cold War Era between John F Kennedy and Nikita Kruzchev that led to the Cuban Missile Crisis. This time it is about Nato missiles in the Ukraine.

Over a year and half ago I interviewed F William Engdahl on MACRO ANALYICS and he was very clear that the encroachment of Nato into the Ukraine, the US Missile shield and "First Strike" capaibilites would lead to a crisis. It clearler has.

As former congressman and Presidential candidate Dr Ron Ron Paul says, the neocon think tanks and mainstream media have painted Putin as Stalin Jr and the Cold War has restarted!

What is true is Putin’s has consolidated and nationalized the Russian energy industry which is now:

• The second-largest oil exporter, set to soon pass even Saudi Arabia;
• The largest uranium exporter in the world, powering 1 in 10 American homes;
• The country with the largest natural gas reserves in the world, doled out with an iron fist, willing to shut off those valves and watch harsh winters kill thousands to get its way

Natural gas, oil, and uranium are all controlled by the state and overseen by an ultra loyal group of Putin’s childhood chums. These enterprises have never been more profitable or powerful. As a result, Europe is now reliant on Russian natural gas and oil—a third of its fuel needs come through Putin’s pipelines. He can potentially bend the EU to his will simply by twisting the valve shut. No need for military intervention. Crimea and the eastern Ukraine are his.

PETRODOLLAR

What is at stake is the Petrdollar. Specifically, the pricing and trading of all crude and gas in US dollars.

Putin cut a landmark deal to build pipelines and sell natural gas to China for the next 30 years. This fills Russia’s coffers, but more important, not a dime will transacted in US dollars. This is a direct threat to the current petrodollar system, in which the majority of the energy trade is priced in US dollars and sold in dollars.

Along with China, Putin delivered another crushing blow to the US dollar with the New Development Bank, which will make large strategic investments in developing nations in Africa, Latin America, and Asia through a non-dollar international payment clearing system.

Each month that passes, Putin forges new alliances and deals like these. He’s using Russia’s vast energy and resource wealth as the ultimate economic weapon.

THE NEW GAME OF "FINANCIAL WARFARE"

The US is not standing idle back and has initiated through sanctions and other covert activites the new game of Financial Warfare. Presently the only thing falling faster than global energy prices is the Russian Ruble. A devastating problem to the stability of Russia and potentially Putin's regime.

PUTIN RAISES THE BAR

During Putin's latest press conference he specifically again addressed tensions with the West. It was reported:

"Our Western partners decided that they won and that they are an empire, and they began to squeeze everyone else out," he said.

He also referenced the Berlin Wall, saying that new "virtual" walls were being built through a NATO expansion.

"We want our partners to understand that the best way is to stop building those walls and to build a united humanitarian space," Putin said.

Putin later implied that the West is trying to disarm Russia.

He compared the country to a bear and said the West would "always try to put it in chains and ... take out its teeth and claws, which in this case means our strategic nuclear deterrent.

"Sometimes I think, maybe they'll let the bear eat berries and honey in the forest; maybe they will leave it in peace," he added. "They will not."

Putin concluded by asking: "Do we want our bear to just become a stuffed animal?"

When a journalist asked Putin about talk of a "new Cold War" brewing, Putin said that Russia had just been defending its interests, and he implied that the US was the aggressive party, not Russia. He insisted that Russia was not attacking anyone.

He then said the sanctions that had been imposed on Russia were "illegitimate and illegal."

This is not going to end well!

nor is the ongoing Sunni-Shite-ISIS conflict.

THE SUNNI-SHITE BOMB

Conrad Black now out of US prison for running afoul of US Neocons penned from Canada this explanation of the deteriorating alliances in the middle east:

OPEC naturally seeks to disguise the fact that Saudi Arabia is trying to discourage the use of Iranian and Russian oil revenues to prop up the blood-stained and beleaguered Assad regime in Damascus, to finance Iran’s nuclear military program, and to incite the continuing outrages of Hezbollah and Hamas in Lebanon and the Palestinian Territories against Israel. The exotic community of interest that has suddenly arisen between the historically Jew-baiting Saudis and the Jewish state is because the countries in the area fear, with good reason as far as can be discerned, that the UN Security Council members, plus Germany, may be on the verge of acquiescing in Iran’s arrival as a threshold nuclear military power. The oil-price weapon, in the face of the terminal enfeeblement of the Obama administration, is the last recourse before the Saudis and Turks, whatever their autocues of racist rhetoric, invite Israel to smash the Iranian nuclear program from the air.

It is perfectly indicative of the scramble that ensues when a mighty power like the United States withdraws, fatigued but undefeated, from much of the world, that Saudi Arabia, a joint venture between the nomadic and medieval House of Saud and the Wahhabi establishment that propagates jihadism with Saudi oil revenues, makes common cause with Israel in a way that inadvertently relieves much of the Russian pressure on Ukraine, which was not an objective in Saudi calculations at all. From the Western standpoint, this is a lucky bounce of the political football. But it is Saudi judgment of its self-interest opposite the contending factions in Syria and the hideous prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran that is discommoding the Saudi leaders, not the ineluctable exploitation by the United States of its own oil resources. It need hardly be added that any conventional definition of “speculation” has nothing to do with it; nor that the Western panic at the bonanza of a $500-billion reduction in the West’s energy costs or the obdurate failure of most Western commentators to understand the implications of the oil price reduction, are an unflattering reflection on the financial and political acuity of the pundits of our society.

 

Drop in oil prices was about:

• Control of oil and gas in the Middle East and
• The weakening of Russia, Iran and Syria by flooding the market with cheap oil.

Historic Foreign Policy Tool

• 1973: RAISED PRICES - Egyptian President Anwar Sadat convinced Saudi King Faisal to cut production and raise prices, then to go as far as embargoing oil exports, all with the goal of punishing the United States for supporting Israel against the Arab states. It worked. The “oil price shock” quadrupled prices.
• 1986, 1990: LOWER PRICES - in 1986, Saudi Arabia-led OPEC allowed prices to drop precipitously, and then in 1990, when the Saudis sent prices plummeting as a way of taking out Russia, which was seen as a threat to their oil supremacy & prior to the invasion of Iraq.
• 1998: LOWER PRICES - In 1998 oil price was halved from $25 to $12, Russia defaulted on its debt.
• 2008: HIGHER PRICES - Oil peaked at $147 a barrel

Strategic “Proxy War” for Syria Between Iran & Saudi Arabia

• Sept. 11 meeting between US Secretary of State John Kerry and Saudi King Abdullah. A deal hammered out whereby the Saudis would support Syrian airstrikes against Islamic State (ISIS), in exchange for Washington backing the Saudis in toppling Assad.
• By opposing Syria, Abdullah grabs the opportunity to strike a blow against Iran, which he sees as a powerful regional rival due to
• Its nuclear ambitions,
• Its support for militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah, and
• Its alliance with Syria, which it provides with weapons and funding.
• The two nations are also divided by religion, with the majority of Saudis following the Sunni version of Islam, and most Iranians considering themselves Shi’ites.
• $140 a barrel oil to balance its budget; at sub-$60 prices, the Saudis succeed in pressuring Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, possibly containing its nuclear ambitions and making the country more pliable to the West, which has the power to reduce or lift sanctions if Iran cooperates.
• 2011 agreement between Syria, Iran and Iraq that would see a pipeline running from the Iranian Port Assalouyeh to Damascus via Iraq. The $10-billion project would take three years to complete and would be fed gas from the South Pars gas field, which Iran shares with Qatar. Iranian officials have said they plan to extend the pipeline to the Mediterranean to supply gas to Europe – in competition with Qatar, the world's largest LNG exporter. “The Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline – if it’s ever built – would solidify a predominantly Shi’ite axis through an economic, steel umbilical cord,” wrote Asia Times correspondent Pepe Escobar.
• Global Research, a Canada-based think tank, goes further to suggest that Assad's refusal in 2009 to allow Qatar to construct a gas pipeline from its North Field through Syria and on to Turkey and the EU, combined with the 2011 pipeline deal, “ignited the full-scale Saudi and Qatari assault on Assad’s power.”

RUSSIAN PRIVATE SECTOR EXPOSED

Eric Reguly, writing in The Globe and Mail last Saturday, points out that with foreign exchange reserves at around $400 billion, the Russian state is “in no danger of collapse” even in the event of a deep recession. Reguly predicts the greater threat is to the Russian private sector, which has a debt overhang of some $700 billion. “This month alone, $30-billion of that amount must be repaid, with another $100-billion coming due next year. The problem is made worse by the economic sanctions, which have made it all but impossible for Russian companies to finance themselves in Western markets,” he writes.

2015 DRIVERS - 5 Macro Themes to Watch

2- Big Things Happen - When Liquidity Flows Change Significantly.

PRIOR TO THE OIL SHOCK - Situation Getting Serious

Richard Duncan recently wrote based on his latest Macro Watch research:

Global Liquidity is getting tight. Consequently, our global economic raft is once again beginning to sink.

• Commodity prices are falling,
• The consumer price inflation numbers are weakening in all the major economies and
• Asset prices (particularly overvalued equities prices) look increasingly vulnerable to a sharp correction.

Without a fourth round of Quantitative Easing the global economy could well be sucked down into a deflationary whirlpool next year.

To measure global liquidity, he took the total assets of the five largest central banks (the People’s Bank of China, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England) plus the total foreign exchange reserves of the world’s other central banks and projected this data out to the end of 2016 based on current central bank guidance. Here’s what that looks like:

Looking out to 2015 and 2016:

• the Fed’s balance sheet flattens out since Quantitative Easing has (supposedly) ended.
• The BOJ’s assets increase at the rate of Yen 85 trillion a year.
• The ECB’s assets expand back to the level reached in 2012.
• The numbers for the PBOC are my estimates and assume that China’s central bank will continue accumulating large amounts of foreign exchange reserves in order to prevent the country’s huge trade surplus from pushing up the value of the Yuan.

Now, by adding all of those assets together, he calculated the annual percent increase in global liquidity, as shown below:

Duncan observes:

1. Notice that at present (the end of 2014), global liquidity has only increased by 5% relative to one year ago.
2. At the peak of the crisis, in 2008 and 2009, global liquidity expanded by 25% to 40% a year.
3. During 2011, it grew by 15% to 20%.
4. Even before the crisis began, global liquidity grew by 15% during much of 2004 and 2005.

Therefore, the current growth rate of only 5% is very much less than what the global economy and the financial markets have grown accustomed to.

Looking ahead, thanks to printing by the BOJ and the ECB, the growth rate will pick up to 8% or 9% at the end of 2015, but then move back down again to 7% by the end of 2016. As the base grows larger, it becomes necessary to print more and more money every year to prevent the growth rate in global liquidity from slowing. And, of course, if the growth rate does not remain high, the additional liquidity ceases to provide sufficient monetary stimulus to keep the global economy inflated.

After 2016, if we assume that the BOJ and the ECB eventually end their quantitative easing programs, the growth rate of global liquidity will slow rapidly and soon come to a relative standstill. Global asset prices and the global economy were reflated after 2008 by an unprecedented amount of fiat money creation by the world’s central banks. If that monetary stimulus ends, asset prices are very likely to deflate again and the global economy is likely to begin spiraling back toward depression.

Ultimately, it may prove impossible to keep the global economic bubble inflated, but the Fed almost certainly won’t allow it to deflate without at least attempting QE 4 and possibly QE 5, 6 and 7.

I believe it’s only a matter of time before the Fed turns back on its printing presses. Until then, beware of falling asset prices.

All of this work by Richard Duncan was before the Oil Shock fully materialized.

THEN THE OIL SHOCK HIT - Situation Goes Critical

With a 50.6% drop in Energy prices since the spring, clearly the impact to the global energy producers is something we haven't seen for decades. In a highly leveraged industry resting on high yield junk bonds things could get tenuous.

$316B IN OPEC AND $500 WITH NON-OPEC

What is for sure is that at$70/bl there is an immediately annual liquidity removal of $316B from OPEC producers and close to $50B when you include non-OPEC.

Realizing that most OPEC & Non OPEC producers require oil revenues to maintain their budgets it will require additional selling of assets to maintain sovereign subsidies.

Can anybody say "LIQUIDITY SQUEEZE"?

Not to worry, QE4 will happen and now likely even sooner than we had originally expected.

2015 DRIVERS - 5 Macro Themes to Watch

"Macro is back, and 2015 is shaping up to be an epic year for the guys who trade these fundamental shifts. To a man, after several years of little action in the macro world, they are positively licking their lips at the potential opportunities that are headed their way next year." - Grant Williams

1- Big Things Happen - When Currency Markets Re-Allign

“When currencies begin to trend, they can do so for decades.”

Currencies trade approximately $5.3T per day. with nearly $200T in SWAPs alone. The total size of the Bond market is approximately $100T. The Global Equity markets is a small $50T. Currencies shifts and King Dollar often dictate major Global Macro movements.

"King Dollar, and the world’s reserve currency is making some serious waves right now, which threaten to cause chaos in world markets. Debt dynamics, deflation, positioning and technicals all suggest that a dollar bull market of some considerable velocity and length is underway.

• When dollar bull markets occur, emerging markets get hit.
• When dollar bull markets occur, carry trades get unwound.
• When dollar bull markets occur, they tend to usher in disinflationary forces as commodities and goods get re-priced.

The preceding three factors lead to a self-reinforcing of the dollar bull market, creating more of the same in a cycle of liquidation and bad debts, creating more demand for US dollars."

The Global Macro Investor, Raoul Pal

A look at the long-term charts of the DXY Index shows just how massive the potential reversal of this trend is. The sheer size of the reversal gives us a strong hint of the degree of carnage that will be wrought upon a world in which the dollar carry trade has reached somewhere between $5 trillion and $9 trillion.

MASSIVE SHORT SQUEEZE

To borrow in a currency is equivalent to shorting a currency. The US$ loans borrowed are sold in exchange for local currency. Local currencies consequentially rose.

Asian Sovereign's after the 1997 Asian Crisis learned to hold higher reserves in case this "hot money" reversed to stop the local currency from subsequently plummeting.

The "Cardinal Sin" of Carry Trade is to trade in a currency that might rise. The "Carry" needs to be in a currency that is expected to depreciate. The US dollar has been expected to fall by analysts since the 2008 financial crisis.

Presently, as the US$ rises the $9T 'Carry' is on the wrong side of the trade which must be covered or hedged - FAST.

According to the BIS' latest report, US dollar loans to China’s banks and companies have jumped to $1.1 trillion — that’s TRILLION — from virtually zero just five short years ago. The annual rate of increase of those loans is a mind-boggling 47%.

Grant Williams points out the following:

"Consider Brazil, for example, where cross-border dollar credit now stands at $461 billion, or roughly 20% of GDP. For Mexico those numbers are even more eye-watering. A country with a GDP of just $1.1 trillion has outstanding cross-border dollar credit of $381 billion — or roughly 30% of GDP. Frightening.

Meanwhile, in Russia the same metric has reached $751 billion. Why does this matter? Well, the charts below, which show the appreciation of the US dollar against those three currencies in the last five years, highlight the danger to countries that have been able to borrow seemingly endless amounts of (relatively) stable dollars to finance business operations and expansion.

Lastly — and perhaps most importantly — witness the change in direction of the Chinese renminbi which, after trending higher against the dollar for many years (and, in the process, moving virtually everybody to the same side of the boat in the belief that a stronger Chinese currency was a given), has suddenly started to look as if it may also succumb to the renewed strength of the dollar. The only difference here being that the Chinese may actively be looking now to devalue their currency in light of the ongoing attempt by the Japanese to devalue their way back to competitiveness. Few thought this a likely scenario until very recently; consequently, few are positioned accordingly; and when things like that happen in the macro world, you can get some REALLY funky moves."

When currency wars break out, they can get very nasty very quickly.

Under no circumstances should you take your eyes off the US dollar, folks. The sheer number of places where you will witness the knock-on effects of a soaring dollar — chief amongst them emerging markets and the commodity space — will be breathtaking.

TO BE CONTINUED WITH #2 TOMORROW

2015 DRIVERS - 5 Macro Themes to Watch

1. Big Things Happen - When Currency Markets Re-Align,
2. Big Things Happen - When Liquidity Flows Change Significantly,
3. Big Things Happen - When Geo-Political Conflicts Dominate the Nightly News SoundBites,
4. Big Things Happen - When Investment Greed and Euphoria SHIFTS to Fear and Panic,
5. Big Things Happen - When Collateral Contagion, Counter Party Risk and Margin Calls Increase.

A WITCH'S BREW

The result of the 5 themes above is a concoction that is 'unwittingly' being formulated by world leaders and central banks