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The Financial Repression Authority

MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICY ADVISORS

"Financial repression is not a conspiracy theory, it is rather a collective set of macroprudential policies focused on controlling and reducing excessive government debt through 4 pillars - negative interest rates, inflation, ring-fencing regulations and obfuscation - to effectively transfer purchasing power from private savings." - The Financial Repression Authority

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Dear Reader, 
Please find below our posts from this week. We hope you find them insightful and informative. Check out our many interviews with key industry analysts, economists and fund managers - click on LINK to our Interviews.

 

LINK HERE to our Interviews

How can I Protect from Financial Repression?

 

Last Update:  Sunday 5/31/15 6:22 AM

   

 

 

 

LINK HERE to the VIDEO

 

JOHN MAULDIN talks

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

My recent book 'Code Red' was really all about Financial Repression. We were talking then about Currency Wars which has come to be played out. We were talking then about Central Banks driving down interest rates on savings to force retirees and savers into other types of investment and take more risk. They want them to move more out onto the risk curve which the central bankers believe will stimulate the economy. What they don't understand is that taking it from savers, it takes it from their consumption behavor patterns."

They are robbing from Peter to pay Paul, but in this case Paul is the banks and Wall Street Interests. It is not for the guy on main street.

"When the central banks start messing around with the markets they change the price of money and it has all sorts of unintended consequences!"

SEVENTH ANNIVERSARY OF ZERO INTEREST RATES

"This period of zero interest has created an extraordinary set of malinvestments as a result of unintended consequences. One example is they have moiney real cheap for Texas oil men. When you make money cheap for Texas oil men they punch holes in the ground. They moved out 'onto the edge'. It created employment and drove rig prices up." ... "It changed behavors, it changed how we think the worrld works - we will see how it works out!

BOND LIQUIDITY CRISIS

"Investors have been moving into high yield (HY) bonds. We are issuing risky HY bonds that are much more risky than 2007 with less covenants. Its like we didn't learn anything! People feel they have to have more yeild and can't survive without it. We have bond funds where people are chasing longer duration bond funds. If interest rates on the long end of the curve grwos by 1%, these longer duration bond funds (2 of the largest funds in the world) could lose 20%. Investors in 401K's who see 20% losses will panic and hit the sell button. Becasue we wrote a bill called Dodd-Frank, which basically says you banks can't get involved in providing liquidity to this market because we don't want you to take the risk - they have shoved the risk to investors who will all try and get out the door at the same time!"

"It would not surprise me in the next crisis (and it will happen) to see the Federal Reserve step in and start directly funding Mutual Funds and ETFs trying to provide liquidity into a panicing market!"

A 'SKYROCKETING' DOLLAR

As John wrote in "code red" he sees a continuing strengthening in the US$.

"The dollar is going to get stronger than any of us can even imagine!"

"The BIS cites that emerging markets have borrowed some $9T in US$ terms." As emerging markets weaken they must pay their loans in appreciating dollars. There is presently a mad scramble ensuing to cover this carry trade. Mauldin believes it will get even worse because of Japan.

"Japan is just continuing to print money. They are just going to print more money! When that doesn't work they will print even more money. They have a sovereign debt crisis that the only way they can solve it to trash their currency and to move the debt they have generated from banks and pension funds unto the balance sheet of the central bank. That is their only solution. Today the 10 Year JGB market (it used to be one of the most liquid in the world) if the BOJ is not buying there are no trades! That is just shocking and is going to put pressures on currencies all over the world!"

"This is movie we just don't believe will end well!"

LIKELY SCENARIO

  1. A couple of contries have a major crisis,
  2. It may possibly roll from country to country,
  3. The Federal Reserve will supply SWAP lines to central banks around the world,

"Investors at this stage should start to consider what is their exit strategy!"

... and much more in the video discussion.... John gives his advise on what things invetors must now be concerned with and how they should be preparing.

   

 

LINK HERE to the VIDEO

 

ELLEN BROWN talks BANKING

Ellen Brown has written to popular books on banking, is the founder of the Public Banking Institute and ran for California State Treasurer in the last election. She knows a thing or two about banking. What she has to say is no pretty.

BANKING IS IN WORSE SHAPE

  1. Loans for small business is harder to get,
  2. Big Banks are lending less,
  3. Big Banks have more derivatives than ever with 98% controlled by the big 4,
  4. Small to Medium size banks are having more difficulties making loans because of Dodd-Frank and Basel III. (Rules which favor big banks).

The rules are effectively competitively disadvantaging the small to medium sized banks in favor of the banks who got us into the financial crisis in the first place and have the lobbyists to secure favorable advantages. It is the smaller to medium sized banks that have traditionally funded small business growth and innovation in America.

STEALTH BAIL-IN VERSUS BAIL-OUT PROVISIONS

In 2010 the congress moved to stop future bailouts but brought in "bailins". In the future if the big banks fail due to risky loans they will be forced to recapitalize themselves but with unsecured creditor funds. This means using depositor funds who are the largest unsecured creditor class of the banks. The public is generally unaware of this shift.

"Cyprus-style confiscation of depositor funds has been called the “new normal.” Bail-in policies are appearing in multiple countries directing failing TBTF banks to convert the funds of “unsecured creditors” into capital; and those creditors, it turns out, include ordinary depositors. Even “secured” creditors, including state and local governments, may be at risk. Derivatives have “super-priority” status in bankruptcy, and Dodd-Frank precludes further taxpayer bailouts. In a big derivatives bust, there may be no collateral left for the creditors who are next in line. 

WHY NEGATIVE NOMINAL BOND YIELDS?

Ellen suggests that the reason we are seeing $5T in Sovereign Bonds now trading with negative nominal yields is because the larger banks need them for collateral in the Repo market. The Fed has reduced the availability of bonds and the banks need the bonds for leverage. They simply don't mind paying a small price to obtain the lending leverage.

PROFITS IN DERIVATIVES

As Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince so infamously cited prior to the 2008 Financial Crisis, "you have to get up and dance while the music is playing!" Today Ellen believes the pursuit of yields and use of derivatives is about short term profits with little regard to the longer term issues where depositors will be on the financial hook. The banks senior secured debt holders now receiving large interest fees will once again be protected. Shareholders, depositors and those lower on the capital structure will be the losers.

OTHER SUBJECTS

  • The secretive issues with the stealth TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership),
  • Campaign finance, big money and running for public office,
  • A public bank solutions and the North Dakota model,
  • Coming Infrastructure spending,

.... and much more in this 32 minute video.

   

 

LINK HERE to the PODCAST

 

JOHN RICHARDSON talks FATCA & US CITIZENSHIP TAXATION ABROAD

FINANCIAL REPRESSION, FATCA & US TAXATION

JOHN RICHARDSON, is Canadian based lawyer with a specialized practice of US Taxation abroad for US Citizens. He is the publisher of the web site: citizenship solutions.ca. He tackles the following head-on with "no holds barred"!

You will never view US Taxation the same after listening to this 38 minute podcast.

- How citizenship taxation has made U.S. citizenship a disability in the modern world
 
- Why renouncing U.S. citizenship is an excellent investment for "U.S. citizens" not living in the U.S.
 
- How the U.S. "Exit Tax" triggered by renouncing U.S. citizenship operates to confiscate non-U.S. assets outside the U.S.
 
- How citizenship taxation imposes a "capital tax" on any country that has U.S. citizens resident in it
 
- How FATCA allows the U.S. to increase its tax based by expanding the definition of citizenship
 
- How FATCA lowers the international standard of human rights in the world
 
- How FATCA compliance costs will keep the poor countries poor
 
- The FATCA Sanction and the "Weaponization of Finance"
 
- FATCA English and FATCA Forms
 
- Why the U.S. will always prefer FATCA to GATCA
 
- FATCA and the future of the dollar as the major world reserve currency

 

   

 

 

Macroprudential Policy Driving

the Financial Markets

Citigroup note confirms macroprudential policy (financial repression) is driving the the financial markets: "If there were any lingering doubt, this week’s gyrations demonstrate neatly that it is central bank liquidity, not fundamentals, driving markets. It is the flow, not the anticipated stock, of QE which counts .. Central bank policy pronouncements are almost the exclusive driver of market movements at the moment, not fundamentals .. with central bank liquidity the ultimate source of all market movements, investors are forced to shun fundamentals and instead hang on the central banks’ every word. At some point, of course, the risk is that the taps are turned off: recent speeches from Yellen, Draghi and others do demonstrate an increasing unease with market behaviour, and an increased emphasis on financial stability and the need for structural reforms. But with the underlying economy still weak, and vulnerable to a sharp sell-off in markets, we fear they will find that mangling, once started, is hard to stop. Particularly when they remain at least partly in denial as to the extent of it."

LINK HERE to the Article

   

 

 

Jim Rickards* on

War on Cash, Repressive Interest Rates,

Capital Controls, Potential Bailins

Latest Jim Rickards* interview with the Physical Gold Fund .. Rickards covers several aspects of financial repression happening - from the war on cash, to repressive interest rates by central banks, to capital controls & potential bail-ins, bank account freezes, how the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) is taking money out of the pocket of savers & giving it to big banks .. very interesting: Rickards sees a time coming when the magnitude of the next financial crisis will be bigger than central banks can create liquidity for - he says in 1998, Wall Street bailed out a hedge fund, then in the financial crisis, central banks bailed out Wall Street, but in the next financial crisis, the IMF will be needed to bailout the central banks .. 1 hour

LINK HERE to the Podcast

   

 

LINK HERE to enlarge the Above Diagram

 

 

Sprott's Rick Rule Talks

Financial Repression, War on Cash, Gold

Webinar with Sprott's Rick Rule (the Special Guest), Conquer Change's Robert Ian, Financial Survival Network's Kerry Lutz, and Financial Repression Authority's Gordon T Long.

   

 

 

Sprott's John Embry Talks

Financial Repression, War on Cash, Gold

Webinar with Sprott's John Embry (the Special Guest), Conquer Change's Robert Ian, Financial Survival Network's Kerry Lutz, and Financial Repression Authority's Gordon T Long.

   

 

 

LINK HERE to the video

 

Obfuscation - One of the

4 Pillars of Financial Repression

Alasdair Macleod points out the obfuscation going on between government economic data & price distortions in the financial markets .. highlights the Chapwood Index as a true cost-of-living inflation measure in America - it reports on the actual cost & price fluctuation of the top 500 items on which Americans spend their money on .. as you can see in the above chart, it is much higher than the government reported numbers .. "Understated price inflation fundamentally distorts everything that is macroeconomic, from monetary policy to economic commentary. It misleads central bankers into thinking they are missing their inflation targets when they are in fact exceeding them by a dangerously wide margin. It misleads analysts into thinking we are on the brink of a deflationary slump with prices maybe about to collapse. And most worryingly of all, bond markets have become more mispriced than even hardened bears realise, something that's very likely to be corrected through a financial shock .. Just think of all those bonds that the banks have acquired as zero risk investments under Basel III rules .. If bond markets discounted, as the Chapwood Index suggests they should, a U.S. inflation rate consistently around 10%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond should yield at least that, possibly more. The price would halve to meet those redemption yields, and lesser credit-worthy bonds would fall even more, a development for which all financial markets are wholly unprepared, not to mention the knock-on effects on stocks, derivatives and of course, mortgage rates."

LINK HERE to the Article

   

 

 

The Era of Financial Repression:

Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund says

Monetary Policy is a Risk to Watch

“Monetary policy does affect pricing in today’s market to such an extent that monetary policy itself has been a risk you have to watch .. Investors are focused more on monetary policy changes than has been generally the case, than at any time, as far as I can remember .. As anything that moves prices is a risk that has to be monitored, here the effects of monetary policy affect prices dramatically .. It’s of course always been the case with long rates, and now more significantly with the currency. That’s just a fact of the current market."

- Yngve Slyngstad, chief executive officer of Norway’s $890 billion sovereign-wealth fund

LINK HERE to the Article

"Financial repression is not a conspiracy theory, it is rather a collective set of macroprudential policies focused on controlling and reducing excessive government debt through 4 pillars - negative interest rates, inflation, ring-fencing regulations and obfuscation - to effectively transfer purchasing power from private savings." - The Financial Repression Authority

   

 

LINK HERE to enlarge the Above Diagram

"Financial repression is not a conspiracy theory, it is rather a collective set of macroprudential policies focused on controlling and reducing excessive government debt through 4 pillars - negative interest rates, inflation, ring-fencing regulations and obfuscation - to effectively transfer purchasing power from private savings." - The Financial Repression Authority

 

Financial Repression Tutorial:

It's about Macro Prudential Policies to

Control and Reduce Government Debt

Financial Sense's Cris Sheridan interviews Gordon T Long* on financial repression .. Gord explains how financial repression is not about conspiracy theories, nor is there some official government policy for financial repression .. it's happening from macro prudential government policies focused on reducing & controlling government debt .. click on the above chart to enlarge - in the middle you will see the 4 pillars of financial repression - negative interest rates, inflation, ring-fencing regulations & obfuscation .. "Financial repression uses a combination of inflation and government control of interest rates in an environment of capital controls to confiscate the purchasing power of much of the nation's private savings." .. discussion on how to protect your investments in such an environment .. 43 minutes podcast .. courtesy thanks to Financial Sense for making this available

LINK HERE to the Podcast

   

The Big Macro Picture of Financial Repression:

"Financial repression is not a conspiracy theory, it is rather a collective set of macroprudential policies focused on controlling and reducing excessive government debt through 4 pillars - negative interest rates, inflation, ring-fencing regulations and obfuscation - to effectively transfer purchasing power from private savings." - The Financial Repression Authority

The chart below shows the linkages and relationships between the good intentions by governments, central banks and regulators translating into the 4 pillars of financial repression - ultimately presenting risks to the investors - savers, retirees, pension funds, endowments and sovereign wealth funds. Link to our ISSUES and SOLUTIONS pages to find out how to address these challenges and protect in this environment.

 

TUTORIAL WITH GORDON T LONG and DOLLARCOLLAPSE'S JOHN RUBINO:

 

 

TUTORIAL WITH FINANCIAL CONSULTANT DAN AMERMAN:

 

TUTORIAL WITH ALLIANZ U.S. CHIEF STRATEGIST KRISTINA HOOPER:

 

TERMS OF USE

Neither Gordon T Long nor the FInancial Repression Authority (nor any of its operating entities) is a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

THE CONTENT OF ALL MATERIALS:  SLIDE PRESENTATION AND THEIR ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSIONS, VIDEO PRESENTATIONS, NARRATED SLIDE PRESENTATIONS AND WEBZINES (hereinafter "The Media") ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

The Media is not a solicitation to trade or invest, and any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and investing  can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine the risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You should never invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risks prior to investing. The Media is not in any way a substitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement of this Disclosure and Terms of Use Statement is a condition of access to it.  Furthermore, any investments you may make are your sole responsibility. 

THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Gordon emperically recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, he  encourages you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.
  

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

Information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.

Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are discussed or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

FAIR USE NOTICE  This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

 

If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.   

COPYRIGHT  © Copyright 2010-2015 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

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"People ask if we'll have a 'bail-in' in the United States .. Given ATM limits, foreign wire limits and Federal Reserve exit fees on bond funds, I'd say it's already here." - Jim Rickards

The 4 Pillars of Financial Repression:

1- Inflation
2- Negative Interest Rates
3- Ring Fencing
4- Obfuscation and Mis-information
 

Posts are A JOINT INITIATIVE OF

GordonTLong.com and CliffKule.com

 
 
Financial Repression always means a combination of measures that lead to a notable narrowing of the investment universe for investors. Money is thus channeled into specific directions to create a home bias.

"We’re going to take your pension plan and give you government bonds so that you have a guaranteed return .. That’s how they’ll rationalize taking our money. They know where all the pension plans are because we have to report it, so they’re easily accessible by governments. They know where they are, what they are, and they’ll be able to snatch them away. Who knows what they’ll do, but they’ll certainly find some way to take our money when things get worse, they always have." – Jim Rogers

"This manipulation of the yield on government debt is the answer for the government, and socially, it is so much more acceptable than the alternatives. Whatever you think of the history of hyperinflation, austerity, default and deflation, they are socially incredibly disruptive, incredibly socially dangerous, and many of those market-driven events have led to warfare or massive domestic social unrest. I think in the grand scheme of things when the government sits down and decides which avenue to pursue, this avenue of repression .. will always be more socially acceptable than the market-driven events of austerity, hyperinflation, deflation, devaluation." - Russell Napier, CLSA

From the U.S. standpoint, it’s now a case of 'inflate or die,' and much of the world knows this. Thus if the U.S. decides not to default on its massive debts, it will have to resort to hyperinflation. If this happens, the U.S. will single-handedly tear the world monetary system apart. What worries me is that governments will do whatever they have to in order to remain in power. This can result in confiscation of the assets of U.S. citizens .. America's massive debts will ultimately upset the world’s monetary system." - Richard Russell

"There will be future bail-ins [loss of deposits] and other types of confiscation of wealth in the eurozone, without a doubt .. There's no other realistic way forward if politicians continue to fail to deal with the basic indebtedness problem across Europe." - Lars Christensen, the Head of Saxo Bank

“By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth.. “..There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”-John Maynard Keynes

The term ‘Financial Repression’ was first employed by McKinnon and Shaw in 1973 and has been rediscovered in the course of the current crisis by Reinhart and Sbrancia in their paper “The Liquidation of Government Debt.”