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FINANCIAL REPRESSION SERIES
TUTORIALS & PRESENTATIONS
FINANCIAL REPRESSION AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL REPRESSION AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL REPRESSION AUTHORITY
JOHN RUBINO
JOHN RUBINO

 

 
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HOW TO ADJUST:

Cash alone may not cut it. Consider whether you are properly diversified to generate the income you need,

Add risk-mitigating strategies to provide downside protection and total return,

Consider moving a portion of your fixed income portfolio out of traditional instruments for income,

Look beyond traditional bonds for alternative sources of income,

Have adequate exposure to equities,

Use an actively managed multi-asset solution

Post-QE, Active Management will be key to uncovering growth opportunities.

 

 

ALLIANZ GLOBAL TALKS

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

What is financial repression?

Government actions (lower interest rates, increased regulations, etc.) to reduce debt while maintaining inflation

Goal: Create negative real (after-inflation) returns and inflate away public debt by forcing real rates below GDP growth

Why does it matter to investors?

It’s a “stealth tax” that systematically strips wealth; “safe” investments no longer generate enough income

It rewards debtors and punishes savers—especially retirees

Financial repression: It’s happening now around the globe

A Financial Repression checklist:

  • Extremely low key interest rates and bond yields
  • Central bank purchases of government bonds
  • Political pressure on banks to purchase government bonds
  • Nationalization of select banks
  • Repression-friendly regulatory measures
  • Restrictions on foreign capital movements
  • Pension asset transfers to government

LINK HERE to the video

   

Financial Repression uses a combination of INFLATION and government control of INTEREST RATES in an environment of CAPITAL CONTROLS to CONFISCATE much of the PURCHASING POWER of the nation's private savings.

The government methodically uses regulations over a period of many years to force a negative rate of return onto investors (in inflation adjusted terms) so that the real wealth of savers shrinks by an average of 3-4% per year.

The characteristics of postwar era "Sheep Sheering" are:

  1. Inflation,
  2. Government control of Interest Rates to guarantee Negative Real Rates of Return,
  3. The Funding of government debt by financial institutions,
  4. Capital controls,
  5. Discouragement of Precious Metals investment.

If you real want to understand FINANCIAL REPRESSION, this is where you start.

 

DAN AMERMAN GIVES A TUTORIAL

ON FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Is there a "Back Door" method for the government to pay down the federal debt using private savings? Daniel Amerman says emphatically, YES!

It is called FINANCIAL REPRESSION, though as a former banker Amerman likes to think of it in more accounting terms like liabilities and assets.

In practice there are four primary methods which a nation can use to pay down excessive debts incurred to support spendthrift habits and political obligations.

  1. AUSTERITY: Decades of Austerity,
  2. DEFAULT: Defaulting on government debts,
  3. DEBASEMENT: Inflating away the value of the debt though slashing the value of the currency,
  4. POLICY: Process of Financial Repression

Financial Repression is a subtle method of taking vast sums of private wealth with no political consequences. It has strong advantages for the government:

  1. It works in practice and has been used successfully before ( 1945 - 1970),
  2. Almost No Political Damage,

 

 

   
   


 

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Financial Repression describes an economic policy in which capital controls and regulations are implemented by governments and central banks, the aim of which is to reduce public debt burdens through the distortion of financial market pricing.
"When things get bad enough, governments will do anything." – Jim Rickards
 
 

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"People ask if we'll have a 'bail-in' in the United States .. Given ATM limits, foreign wire limits and Federal Reserve exit fees on bond funds, I'd say it's already here." - Jim Rickards

The 4 Pillars of Financial Repression:

1- Inflation
2- Negative Interest Rates
3- Ring Fencing
4- Obfuscation and Mis-information
 

Posts are A JOINT INITIATIVE OF

GordonTLong.com and CliffKule.com

 
 
Financial Repression always means a combination of measures that lead to a notable narrowing of the investment universe for investors. Money is thus channeled into specific directions to create a ‘home bias.

TOOLS USED

The next bailout will be the U.S. government. They will seize all pension funds and 401Ks to absorb the debt. They are realizing that as the war cycle turns up, less and less foreigners will buy U.S. debt ... The solution – forced loans." - Martin Armstrong

1- Monetary Policy
2- Distortions - Statistics, Reporting
3- Fiscal Policy - Budget Deficits
4- Moral Suasion - Political Pressures
5- Taxation - ROE, ROI
6-Regulators - Financial Requirements & Enforcement
7- Stealth Credit Spreads
8- Capital Account & Financial Excahnge Controls
PILLARS OF FINANCIAL REPRESSION

"We’re going to take your pension plan and give you government bonds so that you have a guaranteed return .. That’s how they’ll rationalize taking our money. They know where all the pension plans are because we have to report it, so they’re easily accessible by governments. They know where they are, what they are, and they’ll be able to snatch them away. Who knows what they’ll do, but they’ll certainly find some way to take our money when things get worse, they always have." – Jim Rogers

1- Strict investment regulations (Solvency II, Basel III)
2- Negative real interest rates
3- Interest rate ceilings
4- Open credit dirigisme
5- Nationalizations
6-Regulation of cross-border capital movementst
7- Prohibition of unwanted trading practices such as naked short selling
8- Compulsory loans
9- Prohibition of certain investment assets (e.g. gold)
10- Special taxes (e.g. securities taxes, financial transaction taxes, wealth taxes, higher value added tax on silver, import duties on gold etc.)
11- Direct interventions, such as government intervention in pension funds (Portugal, Ireland, France, Hungary) and subsequent redeployment of investments in favor of government bonds.
12-Growing discrepancy between financing costs of private sector participants versus governments.

13- Haircuts on deposits (e.g. Cyprus)

OUR COMMENTARY

"This manipulation of the yield on government debt is the answer for the government, and socially, it is so much more acceptable than the alternatives. Whatever you think of the history of hyperinflation, austerity, default and deflation, they are socially incredibly disruptive, incredibly socially dangerous, and many of those market-driven events have led to warfare or massive domestic social unrest. I think in the grand scheme of things when the government sits down and decides which avenue to pursue, this avenue of repression .. will always be more socially acceptable than the market-driven events of austerity, hyperinflation, deflation, devaluation." - Russell Napier, CLSA

THE BUYBACK TAX RUSE Its a Free Tax Ride for Corporations - 07 July 2021

Financial Repression Goes Global - 05 June 2021

 

From the U.S. standpoint, it’s now a case of 'inflate or die,' and much of the world knows this. Thus if the U.S. decides not to default on its massive debts, it will have to resort to hyperinflation. If this happens, the U.S. will single-handedly tear the world monetary system apart. What worries me is that governments will do whatever they have to in order to remain in power. This can result in confiscation of the assets of U.S. citizens .. America's massive debts will ultimately upset the world’s monetary system." - Richard Russell

PRESENTATIONS

 

GRAPHICS

"There will be future bail-ins [loss of deposits] and other types of confiscation of wealth in the eurozone, without a doubt .. There's no other realistic way forward if politicians continue to fail to deal with the basic indebtedness problem across Europe." - Lars Christensen, the Head of Saxo Bank

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VIDEOS

“By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth.. “..There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”-John Maynard Keynes

 

 

 

 

PODCASTS

EDUCATIONAL AIDS

The term ‘Financial Repression’ was first employed by McKinnon and Shaw in 1973 and has been rediscovered in the course of the current crisis by Reinhart and Sbrancia in their paper “The Liquidation of Government Debt.”

Federal Reserve Must Print Money To Keep Interest Rates Low - Cliff Küle 05 June 2021

Financial Repression To Accelerate With Increased Desperation - KWN 24 March 2021

Monetary Policy Under Financial Repression: China's Long-Term Outlook Financial Sense 20 Dec 2021